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watch nowLONDON — U.K. bond yields spiked sharply Thursday after the ruling Labour Party unveiled a sweeping package of tax hikes and increased borrowing. Yields had already risen on Wednesday shortly after the budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, which contained plans for £40 billion ($52 billion) worth of tax hikes and committed to substantially higher borrowing in the coming years. Despite the big moves this week, the gilt market is remaining relatively stable compared to September 2022, when the U.K. suffered its so-called "mini-budget crisis." Analysts had said ahead of the October 2024 budget that such bond market volatility was unlikely to repeat itself, largely because the U.K. inflation has dropped sharply since the Truss era. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Thursday it would "reduce the urgency for sequential cuts in the near term."
Persons: Rachel Reeves, We've, Liz Truss, Truss, Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, BOE, Sterling Organizations: Labour Party, Labour, ING, Budget, Conservative Party, Bank of England, Goldman, CNBC, U.S Locations: London
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — British businesses are smarting after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' bumper tax-rising budget, with analysts warning that the measures could slow hiring and push up inflation. Under the new rules, employer NI will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, while the level at which employers start paying NI for workers will drop from £9,100 to £5,000. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, a business interest group, described it as a "tough budget for business." That is because businesses could pass on the additional costs to consumers by increasing the price of their products.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , Roger Barker, Barker, Mike Kemp, Andrew Martin, Newton, Smith, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, CNBC's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, LONDON, National Insurance, Labour, Conservative, Institute of, Institute of Directors, of British Industry, Corporation, Insurance, CNBC, Bank of, Morgan Locations: London, City of London, United Kingdom
Maja Smiejkowska | ReutersLONDON — U.K. borrowing costs on Wednesday touched their highest level since Labour took office, after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves unveiled a vast package of tax hikes in her first budget. The yield had cooled to a 3 basis point rise to 4.35% by 4:00 p.m. U.K. time (12:00 p.m. The yield on 2-year bonds, which in the U.K. are known as gilts, were over 6 basis points higher at 4.33% after rising by as much as 10 basis points. The Treasury separately said it would raise gilt issuance by £22.2 billion ($28.9 billion) to £299.9 billion for the fiscal year to meet its net financing requirement. Those included the facts that many key policies had already been announced, and that any increase in borrowing would be to fund public investment.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Maja Smiejkowska, Reeves, Liz Truss Organizations: Reuters LONDON, Labour, Treasury, Conservative Party, Bank of England Locations: London, Britain
The outcome of this snap election signals that Ishiba may face difficulties in getting his party's policies passed in parliament. These include "more fiscal stimulus measures," and a cut in tax rates, Okamura added. His comments come amid expectations of the Bank of Japan leaving its rates unchanged at its meeting on Oct. 31. 'High-quality companies' Okamura is now betting on "higher quality companies with good pricing power." The five are also among the top holdings in the 19.1 billion yen (124.6 million) Japan Equity Engagement Fund .
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Izumi Devalier, CNBC's, Neuberger Berman's Kei Okamura, Okamura —, , Okamura, bode Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of America, Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of Japan, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Logistics, Tokyo Marine Holdings, Japan Equity, Tokyo Marine Locations: Japan, Tokyo, shareholdings
TOKYO — The makeup of Japan’s future government was in flux on Monday after voters punished Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s scandal-tainted ruling coalition in a weekend election, leaving no party with a clear mandate to lead the world’s fourth-largest economy. The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), had 148 seats, up from 98 previously, but also still well short of the 233 majority. But days before the vote, a newspaper affiliated with the Japan Communist Party reported that the party had provided campaign funds to branches headed by non-endorsed candidates. “LDP’s payments to branches show utter lack of care for public image,” ran an editorial in the influential Asahi newspaper two days before the election. In one bright spot, a record 73 women were elected into Japan’s male-dominated parliament, surpassing 54 at the 2009 election.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba’s, , Ishiba, Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, , Tobias Harris, Yoshihiko Noda, Fumio Kishida, Yuichiro Tamaki, Nobuyuki Baba, Rintaro Nishimura, Masakazu Tokura Organizations: U.S, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Japan Foresight, LDP, Japan Communist Party, Asahi, Democratic Party for, People, Japan Innovation Party, DPP, Bank of Japan, Asia, Komeito Locations: TOKYO, China, North Korea, Japan
The yen touched a three-month low on Monday as Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority and investors figured that would likely slow future interest rate hikes, while the dollar headed for a monthly gain on rising U.S. yields. On the dollar, the yen hit its weakest since late July at 153.3 in early-morning trade and it touched the same milestone at 165.36 to the euro . That was down from the 279 seats they held previously and marked the coalition's worst result since it briefly lost power in 2009. The U.S. dollar index has climbed 3.6% during October, its sharpest monthly rise since April 2022. The New Zealand dollar traded near a three-month low of $0.5974, down nearly 6% for the month.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, Nomura, U.S, gilts, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Japan, U.S, Europe, Australia, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets trying to understand BOJ & yen position post-elections: StrategistThe Nikkei 225 rockets higher after a surprising defeat for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. We ask Daniel Gerard from State Street Global Markets what that says about market sentiment, and where it leaves the Bank of Japan and the Japanese yen.
Persons: Daniel Gerard Organizations: Nikkei, Liberal Democratic Party, State Street Global, Bank of Japan
Japan's longtime ruling Liberal Democratic Party may have suffered an election shock, but analysts said that's unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from its interest rate hike cycle. In Sunday's elections, the LDP lost its majority in Japan's lower house for the first time since 2009. Besides its junior coalition partner Komeito, the LDP will need to work with other parties to form a government. The political turmoil comes ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting this week. Roughly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to leave its rates unchanged when it announces its decision Thursday.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Japan's, Komeito, David Boling, CNBC's, they're, Izumi Devalier, Devalier, you've Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of Japan, LDP, Eurasia Group, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington , U.S, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapanese economy is 'weak and sluggish,' former BOJ board member saysSayuri Shirai, a former board member of the Bank of Japan, discusses Japan's currency and economic policies.
Persons: Sayuri Shirai Organizations: Bank of Japan
CNN —When considering who is living paycheck to paycheck, households with an income of six-figures or more likely aren’t the first to come to mind. But, as it turns out, about a fifth of US households that earn more than $150,000 a year are in that situation. Across all income levels, households that earn less than $50,000 a year saw the highest proportion, around 35%, of people living paycheck to paycheck so far this year. But at higher income levels, the portion of households living paycheck to paycheck falls slowly. For instance, the share of households living paycheck to paycheck and earning between $50,000 and $75,000 is only a few percentage points higher than households earning more than $150,000.
Persons: ” David Tinsley, Tinsley Organizations: CNN, Bank of America, Bank of America Institute, Labor Department
Japan votes in election expected to punish PM Ishiba's coalition
  + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
TOPSHOT - Officials look on as people vote during the general election at a polling station set up at a local school in Tokyo on October 27, 2024. Japan voted on October 27 in its tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic Party facing potentially their worst result since 2009. (Photo by Richard A. Brooks / AFP) (Photo by RICHARD A. BROOKS/AFP via Getty Images)Japan's voters decide the fate of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government on Sunday in an election expected to punish his coalition over a funding scandal and inflation, potentially ending a decade of dominance for his Liberal Democratic Party. Political wrangling could roil markets and be a headache for the Bank of Japan, if Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates when the central bank wants to gradually raise them. "That's basically the scenario for 'sell Japan'," as investors ponder how the outcome could affect fiscal and monetary policy, said Naka Matsuzawa, chief macro strategist at Nomura Securities.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Richard A, Brooks, RICHARD A, BROOKS, Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Ishiba, Jeffrey Hall, That's, Naka Matsuzawa Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Getty, LDP, Bank of Japan, Kanda University of International Studies, Asahi, Nomura Securities, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan, AFP, China
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday, with investors awaiting Japan's general election over the weekend. Japan also released its October inflation numbers for the capital city of Tokyo on Friday, its last key economic data before the election. Tokyo's inflation is widely considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends. The city's headline inflation rate fell to 1.8% in October from 2.2% the month before, with core inflation — which strips out prices of fresh food — also coming in at 1.8%, down from 2%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the core inflation rate in Tokyo to slow to 1.7% in October.
Persons: Japan's Organizations: Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo
The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% on Friday. Inflation in Russia hit 8.6% year-on-year in September, well above the central bank's 4% target. It has largely been driven by heavy defense spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. AdvertisementRussia's central bank raised its key interest rate to a record high on Friday as inflationary pressure continues in the country. The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rate by 200 basis points to 21%, saying inflation was "running considerably above" its July forecast.
Persons: , Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Bank of Russia, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Financial Times Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe
IMF's Asia director compares Japan & China's fiscal challenges
  + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF's Asia director compares Japan & China's fiscal challengesKrishna Srinivasan, Director of IMF of Asia and Pacific Department, talks to CNBC's Martin Soong about Japan and China's fiscal positions, as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy and China embarks on measures to prop up the country's economy.
Persons: Krishna Srinivasan, CNBC's Martin Soong Organizations: IMF's, Japan, Pacific Department, Bank of Japan Locations: IMF's Asia, Asia, Japan, China
Yen wobbles, vulnerable to political reverberations
  + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on July 22, 2015. The yen was last 0.1% lower at 152 per dollar and was looking at a 1.5% loss for the week. The yen has fallen roughly 5.5% for the month thus far, setting it up for its worst monthly decline since April 2022. Against the dollar, the euro last bought $1.08225, some distance away from its low of $1.076125 hit earlier this week. The dollar index last ticked up 0.04% to 104.09, after having scaled a roughly three-month high of 104.57 earlier in the week.
Persons: Ray Attrill, Katsunobu Kato, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Nick Rees, Sterling Organizations: of Japan's, Treasury, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, National Australia Bank, country's Finance, FX, Monex, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Japanese, Germany —
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Everything should be on the table,' says ECB's Kazāks on possibility of a jumbo rate cutMārtiņš Kazāks, the governor of the Bank of Latvia and European Central Bank Governing Council member, discusses monetary policy with CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF meetings in DC.
Persons: ECB's, Karen Tso Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank Governing Locations: Bank of Latvia
The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's
A queue of people forms outside a money changer (L) as people wait to buy and sell the Japanese yen against foreign currency, along a street in central Tokyo on April 29, 2024. In the past, weakness in the Japanese currency has been attributed to the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates as lower rates tend to pressure currencies, while higher rates lift them up. Japan had negative rates for about eight years, keeping it's currency weak compared to the dollar. The Japanese yen is hovering near three-month lows against the U.S. dollar, after hitting 153.18 late Wednesday. "The annualised 1-month deposit rate for yen is +0.03%, while it is 4.76% for the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Alvin Tan, Homin Lee, Lombard Odier, Donald Trump, Lee, RBC's Tan, Hugh Chung Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Swiss, U.S
Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, on Thursday weighed in on the possibility of a jumbo half-point interest rate cut for December. When asked for his views on a 50-basis rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting, he said that "everything should be on the table." "But we will have that discussion in December," he told CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF's annual meetings in Washington, D.C. Thursday. His comments come after the ECB delivered a back-to-back interest rate cut for the first time in 13 years at its October meeting. It also comes a day after Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno made similar comments.
Persons: Mārtiņš Kazāks, CNBC's Karen Tso, , Mario Centeno, Centeno Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank's Governing, ECB, CNBC Locations: Bank of Latvia, Washington ,, Portuguese
Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
General view of the City of London skyline, the capital's financial district, in October. LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying declines in interest rates and inflation would boost domestic demand. The IMF now sees 1.1% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up from a July forecast of 0.7%. Inflation in the U.K. came in at 1.7% in September, a decline from 11.1% in October 2022. Economic growth has been tepid so far this year, coming in at 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July.
Persons: flatlining Organizations: LONDON, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank of England Locations: London, United Kingdom
Asking prices for UK homes barely rise in October, Rightmove says
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Asking prices for British homes rose only marginally in October as more properties came onto the market, according a survey on Monday that also suggested some buyers were waiting for clarity on tax changes in the new government's upcoming budget. Asking prices rose by just 0.3% in October, well below their average for a 1.3% monthly increase for the month, property website Rightmove said. Overall activity in the property market remained strong, with buyer demand rising. "Despite a budget-shaped cloud on the horizon, the big picture still looks positive for the market heading into 2025. Mortgage lenders Halifax and Nationwide both reported rises in house prices in September.
Persons: Rightmove, Tim Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Bank of England, Nationwide Locations: London's Muswell Hill, London, Halifax
The onshore yuan ticked 0.06% higher to 7.1199 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.12% to 7.1282. Data on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales growth was higher than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. "All of that has played in to a stronger dollar," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington. The New Zealand dollar was similarly eyeing a 0.75% fall for the week and was little changed at $0.6063 in the Asia session. The U.S. dollar index hit a 2-1/2 month high of 103.87 on Thursday and is up nearly 0.8% forthe week thus far.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ho Woei Chen, Jason Wong, There's, Yahya Sinwar, Israel's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Sterling Organizations: European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Securities, Fund, Insurance, ECB, Reuters, Trump, New Zealand, Bank of England, U.S Locations: Asia, China, Wellington, U.S, Israel, Gaza
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