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In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLuxury brands are moderating 'but off a very high base', says Telsey Advisory Group's Dana TelseyDana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the state of retail and luxury consumer trends that may not be telling the full story.
Persons: Dana Telsey Dana Telsey Organizations: Telsey
May 19 (Reuters) - Foot Locker Inc's (FL.N) shares closed down 27% on Friday as the footwear retailer cut its annual sales and profit forecasts amid a sharp drop in demand and a hit from heavy discounts aimed at clearing excess inventories. The company also missed analysts' estimates for first-quarter results and named former Kohl's Corp (KSS.N) executive Mike Baughn as its new finance chief, effective June 12. Foot Locker doubled down on discounts to drive demand, which coupled with an increase in theft-related inventory losses led to a 400-basis point hit to the company's quarterly gross margins. Foot Locker now expects full-year comparable sales to fall between 7.5% and 9.0%. The company also forecast annual adjusted per-share earnings between $2.00 and $2.25, compared with its previous outlook of $3.35 to $3.65.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers becoming more discerning and looking for value, says Dana TelseyDana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current state of the consumer, if the last few days of retail results give any insight into the consumer and signs of a potential crack down in luxury goods.
Walmart investors eye margins amid grocery focus
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Siddharth Cavale | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Home improvement chain Home Depot (HD.N) cut its annual forecast on Tuesday, indicating weakness for retailers who sell discretionary merchandise. Yet many shoppers have turned to Walmart for its low-priced basics such as toilet paper, milk, green beans and eggs. Investors such as Charles Sizemore, chief investment officer of Sizemore Capital Management, are looking for any specific hit to Walmart's so called gross profit margin. David Klink, senior equity analyst at Huntington Private Bank, which holds $77 million in Walmart shares, said that if Walmart can re-affirm its margin targets, "that would be very well appreciated by investors." Analysts on average are expecting the retailer to post first quarter margins of 3.7%, according to UBS.
Recent consumer sentiment reports have been poor, so it's reasonable to assume the consumer spending backdrop has softened. The company is cutting guidance due to the weaker lumber prices, weather and is also citing "further softening of demand relative to our expectations, and continued uncertainty regarding consumer demand." If we are on the side of the American consumer (I am), then lower lumber prices are good, right? Running shoes are hot. Second case in point: On Holding (ONON), which makes the trendy ON running shoes, is up 94% YTD.
Apparel retailers TJX Companies (TJX) and Foot Locker (FL) are set to deliver quarterly results this week, as consumers continue to be squeezed by a slowing economy and still-persistent inflation. Sneaker retailer Foot Locker reports Friday before the opening bell, with Refinitiv estimates showing revenue should have fallen by 8.3 % annually, to $1.90 billion, with EPS falling 49 % to, 81 cents. Foot Locker is going through a transitionary period as it reinvents itself, so our expectations are low for the first quarter. "Don't expect anything from Foot Locker," Jim Cramer said Monday. Foot Locker Inc. signage is displayed in the window of a store in New York, U.S. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
How to trade this week's retail earnings reports
  + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The home-improvement giant has also exceeded earnings expectations by 3.2% over the past 10 years. However, Home Depot shares are typically muted after the company reports earnings. Ross Stores, which also reports Thursday, has beaten earnings expectations 82.5%, too. The company has beaten analyst expectations 77.5% of the time, and its earnings per share have exceeded estimates by more than 3%. The company is slated to report earnings Thursday.
Existential troubles facing Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are creating an opportunity for Club holding TJX Companies (TJX) to take market share, which could lead to sustainable long-term growth at the off-price retailer behind the T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond traded for less than 30 cents each Thursday. "The assortment of goods, the categories they can extend into, and the strength of the balance sheet ... allows for them to be a solid beneficiary" of Bed Bath & Beyond's misfortunes. TJX 1Y mountain TJX Companies (TJX) 1-year performance That inventory glut isn't just a Bed Bath & Beyond problem; it's industry-wide. More Bed Bath & Beyond store closures "can only enhance conversion," said Telsey, whose firm Telsey Advisory Group likes TJX stock.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are beginning to see consumers trade down in retail, says Telsey Advisory Group CEODana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the retail sector, and her outlook for the rest of 2023.
New York CNN —Bed Bath & Beyond is stripping down its big blue signs, clearing out aisles of linens and closing 400 stores as it tries to stave off bankruptcy. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)’s real estate is a precious, scarce resource for retailers, gyms and anyone else who needs ample space. “A lot of great real estate is going to come available into a market where there’s been no vacancies. “Bed Bath and Beyond sites are interesting to us, and we are exploring available opportunities with our franchisees,” a spokesperson told CNN. He also believes Bed Bath & Beyond may not be able to avoid bankruptcy or liquidation, which would lead to more vacancies.
March 20 (Reuters) - Nike is expected to report a rise in third-quarter revenue and grow its market share through 2023, helped by major rival Adidas' split with designer and rapper Kanye West that caused the German company to lose about $600 million in quarterly sales. Nike (NKE.N) is also expected to get a boost from higher sales of its Jordan Retros and some newer launches as the world's No. "There is an opportunity for Nike to pick more market from Adidas," said Jessica Ramirez, senior analyst at Jane Hali and Associates, adding that Adidas has not had as many bestsellers as Nike. Nike has also doubled down on its product lines such as the LeBron 20s and Nike Mercurial shoes, while also grabbing a bigger chunk of the growing China market. Still, Nike's margins are expected to be squeezed in the quarter as it continues to offer promotions and discounts to shed excess stock.
Adidas, burnt by Kanye West split, seeks a new focus
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Helen Reid | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] Adidas Yeezy shoes are seen in a store on the day Adidas terminated its partnership with the American rapper and designer Kanye West, now known as Ye, in Garden City, New York, U.S., October 25, 2022. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Gulden said Adidas would keep partnering not just with athletes but celebrities and artists. "You build credibility as a performance brand by being with athletes, but there's very few athletes that you can do lifestyle with." Gulden did, however, hint at a change of emphasis at Adidas, saying the company needs to refocus on its core. The Jordan brand brought in $5.1 billion of sales in Nike's 2022 fiscal year, up 7% from 2021, according to the company's 2022 annual report.
Union Pacific — Shares rose 9.5% after the company said CEO Lance Fritz would have a successor named this year. Best Buy — The retailer slipped 1.5% in the premarket after being downgraded to market perform from outperform by Telsey Advisory Group. The Wall Street firm said it expects high inflation and rising interest rates to weigh on Best Buy's 2023 sales and profits. The Omaha-based company used $2.855 billion to buy back shares in the quarter. Alliant Energy — Shares dropped more than 3% after the company reported that it intends to offer $500 million of its convertible senior notes due 2026.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTelsey: Expect better retail sales in January, but March numbers will tell the whole story on the sectorDana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer at the Telsey Advisory Group, discusses expectations for the January retail sales data, and what investors should be listening for next week in the earnings calls for Walmart, TJX and Home Depot.
Shoppers are largely creatures of habit, but after two years of rising prices, a broader shift to private label brands is underway. 'A tailwind' for private label That is good news for store brands, otherwise known as private label. Yet the biggest pure play on private label brands is Treehouse Foods , Chappell said. "That's where you're going to see them lean into store brands," said Mary Ellen Lynch, principal of IRI's center store solutions. Americans forced to trade down due to supply chain constraints found store brands they enjoyed, she said.
Adidas expects sales to drop by $1.28 billion in 2023 if it doesn't sell leftover Yeezy inventory. The company's guidance began on a bleak note with revenue for the year expected to drop after ending its Yeezy partnership. Against this background, Adidas said it is forecasting a decline in the high-single digits in sales in 2023. "The sales decline is about more than just Yeezy," Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman wrote in a note to clients early Friday. Cowen estimates the brand earned $1.2 billion in sales last year before Adidas terminated the partnership in October.
Bed Bath & Beyond's potential bankruptcy could bode well for Target as the retailer picks up the sales from more store closures, Oppenheimer said. Bed Bath & Beyond said Thursday it doesn't have enough cash to pay down its debts and it has defaulted on its credit line with JPMorgan. BBBY 5D mountain Bed Bath & Beyond Bed Bath & Beyond's stock plunged 22% following the news Thursday. Oppenheimer said a full liquidation of Bed Bath & beyond could conservatively add in the shorter-term 50–100 basis points to Target comps and between 14 cents and 28 cents per share to earnings. Earlier this week, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Target with an outperform rating, betting the retailer will gain share over time from its challenged peers.
"Our data showed that Target and Walmart have the greatest number of stores near a closing Bed Bath & Beyond," said analyst Cristina Fernández. "In fact, 63% of closing Bed Bath & Beyond stores have a Target within one mile and 85% within three miles." TJX concept stores are next, with 37% of soon-to-be shuttered Bed Bath & Beyond stores having one within a mile and 54% within three miles. Potential sales lift for retailers The main benefit retailers would see from Bed Bath & Beyond store closures is higher sales as they attract a similar consumer base. It's likely that Bed Bath & Beyond will cede $750-$800 million in sales due to the store closings, according to Telsey.
Don't be surprised if beaten-down retail stock Bed Bath & Beyond falls even more from here, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. "We do not see Bed Bath & Beyond as a strategic fit for any of the home furnishings retailers in our coverage group, but see interest from retailers in the company's Bed Bath & Beyond store leases, which are ~30,000 sq. ft. and generally in good locations," wrote analyst Cristina Fernández in a Friday note. "Over the past few months, management has stemmed the bleeding, improved liquidity, and improved relations with these two stakeholders," wrote analyst Christopher Horvers. Bed Bath & Beyond shares have experienced a roller-coaster ride in recent years, as smaller traders on Reddit piled into the heavily shorted retailer.
Analysts are projecting a near 11% jump in quarterly sales as a bounce in its U.S. business may help overcome weakness in the China market. "While retailers were initially worried about the amount of Nike inventory being shipped, the consumer is showing up and buying the Nike brand," Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti wrote in a note on Friday. "Most retailers have been worryingly low on Nike inventory for 2 years and are just happy to have enough to drive their apparel & footwear categories at this point," Binetti said. Reuters GraphicsLockdowns in China in October and November are also expected to be a drag on its sales in the region for the second quarter. The company reported a 20% slump in Greater China revenue in the same period last year and a 16% fall in the prior quarter ended Aug. 31.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with retail analyst Dana Telsey on holiday shopping season's winnersDana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss her top retail picks, including Lululemon, Costco, Ulta Beauty, and more.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRetail analyst Dana Telsey breaks down top retail picks amid holiday shopping seasonDana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss her top retail picks, including Lululemon, Costco, Ulta Beauty, and more.
Nov 29 (Reuters) - Deal-hungry Americans snapped up everything from toys to electronics during the five-day long Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday shopping bonanza lured by steep discounts, sales data showed. Online toy sales on Cyber Monday jumped nearly eight-fold compared to an average day in October 2022, according to Adobe. Electronics sales rose about five-fold, while sporting goods, appliances and books also saw increases over 400%. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsCyber Monday sales rose 5.8%, said Adobe, which analyzes purchases at 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the United States. Overall global online sales for the cyber week hit an all-time high of $281 billion, according to data from Salesforce (CRM.N), while U.S. online sales gained 9% to $68 billion.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTelsey: Shoppers will experience a more promotional holiday season this yearDana Telsey, CEO and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday shopping season.
The estimate from Adobe Analytics predicts an increase of up to 8.5% from a year earlier. Adobe Analytics measures e-commerce performance by analyzing purchases at 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the United States. Both Adobe and MasterCard Spending Pulse are expected to release their updated Cyber Monday spending estimates on Tuesday. Americans have put off holiday shopping for weeks in the hopes of finding deeper post-Thanksgiving markdowns. Last year, Cyber Monday sales fell 1.4%, according to Adobe Analytics, as retailers kicked off holiday promotions early to avoid product shortages amid a global shipping crisis.
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