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"There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process," the MPC said. BoE policymakers had given little indication that a half-point rate increase was under consideration in the run-up to Thursday's announcement. Expectations for BoE rate tightening have surged in recent days - sharply raising the cost of new mortgages - and before Thursday's decision financial markets expected the BoE's Bank Rate to peak at 6% by the end of the year. The central bank also noted that short-dated British government bond yields had risen sharply - pricing in an average level of Bank Rate of 5.5% for the next three years. Last month the central bank forecast that inflation would fall to just over 5% by the end of this year and be below its 2% target in early 2025.

Persons: BoE, Silvana Tenreyro, Swati Dhingra, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Joachim Nagel, Jerome Powell, David Milliken, Suban Abdulla, BRITAIN BOE Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Reuters, Central, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Swedish, Norwegian, Britain

☆ Coastal areas of India's Gujarat state return to normalcy after cyclone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Sumit Khanna | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AHMEDABAD, June 17 (Reuters) - Some 1,500 villages were still without electricity in India's western state of Gujarat, officials said on Saturday, as coastal areas recovered from the impact of this week's cyclone Biparjoy. In many villages, power had been cut off as a precautionary measure to avert any dangerous incidents during the storm, Gujarat Energy Secretary Mamta Verma told Reuters. A drone view shows dark clouds over Mandvi beach before the arrival of cyclone Biparjoy in the western state of Gujarat, India, June 15, 2023. More than 700 homes in the eight coastal districts of Gujarat suffered full or partial damage, according to the state government. Authorities in India and neighbouring Pakistan evacuated more than 180,000 people from vulnerable areas as the cyclone approached.

Persons: Mamta Verma, Port, Francis Mascarenhas, Kamal Dayani, Swati Bhat, Frances Kerry Organizations: Gujarat Energy, Reuters, REUTERS, Authorities, Thomson Locations: AHMEDABAD, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Mundra, India, Pakistan

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.75% as inflation slow to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England

Despite hitting an 18-month low of 4.70% in April, analysts do not expect India's inflation to fall to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target in a sustainable manner for some time. India has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022, but surprised analysts in April by keeping them unchanged. India's hold on rates contrasts with recent central bank actions elsewhere. "Our goal is to achieve the inflation target of 4% and keeping inflation within the comfort band of 2-6% is not enough," Das said. Das said that the central bank would remain "nimble" with its liquidity operations amid spikes in overnight rates despite surplus liquidity in the banking system.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, OIS, Das, Michael Patra, Suvodeep Rakshit, Gaura Sen Gupta, Swati Bhat, Sudipto Ganguly, Ira Dugal, Krishna N, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, MPC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, IDFC, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Anushree, MUMBAI

☆ About 80% of Indians choose to deposit withdrawn 2000-rupee notes, boost bank deposits - bankers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, June 7 (Reuters) - About three-fourths of Indians are choosing to deposit the recently withdrawn 2000-rupee notes into bank accounts so far rather than exchanging them for smaller denominations, with the trend likely to boost bank deposits, bankers said. In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would withdraw these high-value notes from circulation and permitted their exchange or deposit until Sept. 30. When announced, the value of these notes in circulation was 3.6 trillion rupees ($43.61 billion), the RBI said. Though the total quantum of notes deposited or exchanged so far is not available, six public and private sector bankers Reuters spoke to said over 80% of the notes received by them have been deposited into accounts. The initial assumption is the overall bank deposit base would increase by at least 1.5 trillion rupees, with SBI contributing 22%-25%, the SBI official said.

Persons: Virat Diwanji, Gaura Sen Gupta, Dipanwita Mazumdar, Siddhi Nayak, Swati Bhat, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC FIRST Bank, SBI, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, BOB.NS, India

☆ India violence against women: Brutal killings of two young girls show one of country's biggest problems is only getting worse, advocates say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Tara Subramaniam | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Advocates had hoped the shocking murder case would represent a watershed moment in India’s approach to violence against women. In fact, as others like Swati Maliwal, chairperson of the Delhi Commission for Women, point out, such crimes are becoming more common. Violence against women has prompted past protests with calls for greater government action. She’s concerned that it suggests a societal apathy towards violence against women and girls, or worse, acceptance. “I think why the recent case is so shocking is it happened so blatantly in a public place,” Kothari said.

Persons: bludgeoned, Jayna, we’ve, ”, Kothari, “, ” Kothari, Swati Maliwal, Sayantan Chakraborty, there’s, Yogita Bhayana, shaming, ” Bhayana, Maliwal, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Mantar, Sanchit Khanna Organizations: CNN, Delhi Commission, Women, Pacific Press, Crime Records, Wrestling Federation of India, Hindustan Times Locations: India, ”, Delhi, Gujarat’s Surat district, “

☆ Sri Lanka to remain on policy loosening course, next rate cut likely in August -analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Uditha Jayasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sri Lanka plunged into crisis last year as its foreign exchange reserves ran out, food and energy prices spiralled and protesting mobs forced the ouster of the country's then president. "With no inflation risk the central bank will cut rates aggresssively to push demand and target growth." The CBSL expects Sri Lanka's GDP to contract by 2% in 2023, slightly better than the 3% contraction predicted by the IMF. Five analysts backed CBSL and IMF estimates, two said Sri Lanka would perform better and one projected a steeper contraction of 4.8%. []Sri Lanka will begin rolling back import restrictions on 300-400 items from next week, as per a statement from the finance ministry which gave no further details.

Persons: CBSL, Dimantha Mathew, Kenji Okamura, Uditha Jayasinghe, Devayani, Swati Bhat, Toby Chopra Organizations: Sri, Citi Bank economists, International Monetary Fund, First, IMF, Thomson Locations: COLOMBO, Lanka's, Sri Lanka's, Sri Lanka, Colombo

[1/2] Staff members work at a packing section at a garment factory in Colombo after the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved a $3 billion bailout for Sri Lanka. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut its standing deposit facility rate and standing lending facility rate to 13% and 14%, respectively, from 15.5% and 16.5% previously. The central bank raised rates by a record 950 basis points last year to tame inflation and by 100 bps on March 3 this year. "There is a need to bring the interest rates down because the cost of government financing is high," said Udeeshan Jonas, chief strategist at equity research firm CAL. Sri Lanka secured a $2.9 billion bailout from the IMF in March and aims to complete restructuring debt talks by September, coinciding with the first review by the lender.

Persons: Dinuka, Udeeshan Jonas, Uditha Jayasinghe, Swati Bhat, Shri Navaratnam, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Staff, Monetary Fund's, Sri, REUTERS, Central Bank of Sri, Colombo, Monetary Fund, Reuters, CAL, Thomson Locations: Colombo, Sri Lanka, Lanka's, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

☆ Australian home prices climb for third straight month in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Swati Pandey/File PhotoSYDNEY, June 1 (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose for the third consecutive month in May, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply as demand remained strong despite high mortgage rates, and the number of available homes nudged lower. Figures from property consultant CoreLogic released on Thursday showed national home prices surged 1.2% in May after rising in March and April, and finding a floor in February. The report showed the rise in prices was because of persistently low levels of available housing supply running up against rising housing demand. Advertised listings trended lower through May compared with April, with about 1,800 fewer homes listed in the state capital cities. ($1 = 1.4743 Australian dollars)Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Swati Pandey, CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, Sydney, Renju Jose, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Brisbane, Perth, Thomson Locations: SydneyÕs, Chatswood, Australia's, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, Sydney

David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for over four years since succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about the morale at Goldman Sachs. Solomon said there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." Meanwhile, Solomon's expensive foray into consumer banking raised the ire of some longtime Goldman partners, as Insider has previously reported. The fresh faces among the Goldman Sachs executives who took the stage at the bank's investor day highlight the leadership changes under Solomon.

New Delhi CNN —A 16 year-old girl was brutally stabbed and bludgeoned to death in a busy public alleyway in India’s capital on Sunday, sparking renewed outrage over the safety of women in the country and violence perpetrated by men. Sahil, a mechanic, was detained in Bulandshahr in neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, Ravi Kumar Singh, Deputy Police Commissioner for Outer Delhi, told reporters on Monday. Swati Maliwal, chairperson of the Delhi Commision for Women, told ANI she’s never seen such a frightening incident. The frequency of crimes against women in India also appears to be increasing. “We learn to live with this kind of situation in our country which is very unfortunate,” Bhayana told CNN.

MUMBAI, May 29 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India has come across instances of some banks trying to conceal the real status of their stressed assets while governance gaps have also been noticed at certain lenders, its governor said on Monday. Das also said that despite the guidelines on corporate governance, it was a matter of concern that the RBI has come across gaps in governance at certain banks, which have the potential to cause some volatility in the sector. "While these gaps have been mitigated, it is necessary that boards and the managements do not allow such gaps to creep in," he said. A robust governance structure is the most important requirement to ensure the stability of a bank and sustainable financial performance, Das added. "RBI has engaged with certain banks on the need to make suitable adjustments in their business strategies where it was observed that over-aggressive growth in certain business segments were creating avoidable vulnerabilities," Das said.

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates again to tackle stubborn inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are fully pricing in another quarter-of-a-percentage point increase in Bank Rate, taking the BoE's benchmark rate to 4.5%, when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces the outcome of its May policy meeting at 12 p.m. (1100 GMT). Markets' main focus will be any signals from the BoE about the likelihood of further rises in the months ahead. "We expect that the Bank will only start to reduce rates from 2024 Q2 given resilient growth momentum," Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly told clients this week. "We have to be very alert to any signs of persistent inflationary pressures," Bailey said on March 27, before the latest round of data showed inflation fell less than expected. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both raised their benchmark borrowing rates by 25 basis points.

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.5% next week, a possible peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Economists polled by Reuters this week were unanimous that the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise rates to 4.5% next week, in sharp contrast to a poll two weeks earlier which showed only a slim majority expecting a hike. "Previously we had seen the MPC holding Bank Rate at 4.25% but the April labour market and March CPI inflation data were too much to ignore," said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. Only a minority of economists polled by Reuters this week expect the BoE to raise interest rates above 4.5% this year. But investors in interest rate futures - whose views shift more rapidly - see rates reaching 4.75% or 5% by September. "In our view, further tightening beyond May can't be ruled out," said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics.

India started exploring a rupee settlement mechanism with Russia soon the invasion of Ukraine in February last year, but there has been no reported deal done in rupees. "We don't want to push rupee settlement any more, that mechanism is just not working. Another official said both countries have started looking for alternatives after the rupee settlement mechanism did not work out but did not give details. Reuters GraphicsTRADE ON TRACKThe sources said trade with Russia has been continuing despite sanctions and payment issues. So payments are being made to a third country which route it or offset it for their trade with Russia," the other official said.

☆ Bank of England policymakers consider 12th straight rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is weighing up whether to raise interest rates for the 12th meeting in a row next week as it continues to grapple with an inflation rate that remains above 10%, higher than in any other big, rich economy. Following is a summary of recent comments by members of the Monetary Policy Committee. If they become evident, further monetary tightening would be required. JON CUNLIFFE, DEPUTY GOVERNORHas not commented on monetary policy in recent months. MPC MEMBERS WHO VOTED IN MARCH TO STOP RAISING RATESSILVANA TENREYRO, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBERApril 14: "We need to be patient (to see the effects of past rate increases).

Unsecured loans – mostly personal loans and credit cards – do not carry any collateral and therefore pose higher risk. Indian banks have been growing their unsecured lending portfolio as the pandemic-induced stress began to ease. "Risks in unsecured lending has been on the RBI's radar," said a senior official at a private bank. This has pushed up the weighted average lending rate of banks by 95 bps in the same period. "It is trying to identify early warning signals in unsecured lending to not be caught off guard later."

☆ India monetary tightening cycle not over, inflation remains a concern -MPC minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 20 (Reuters) - India's current rate tightening cycle may not be over as more hikes could be warranted to align inflation towards the central bank's medium term target of 4%, minutes of this month's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed on Thursday. "It is clear that the war against inflation has not yet been won, and it would be premature to declare an end to this tightening cycle," MPC member Jayant Varma wrote. Most members appeared more concerned about inflation than in their commentary after the previous policy meeting in February when the bank raised rates by 25 bps. The decision by OPEC+ to cut crude output and the possibility of weak monsoon rains could both push up inflation in India and necessitate a monetary policy response, Varma said. In the current situation of high inflation, monetary policy does not have the luxury of responding to these growth headwinds."

The central bank said its policy stance remains focused on "withdrawal of accommodation", signalling it could consider further rate hikes if necessary. The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50%. Most analysts had expected one final 25 basis point hike in the RBI's current tightening cycle, which has seen it raise the repo rate by a total 250 bps since May last year. The central bank sees inflation at 5.2% in 2023-24, and GDP growth is seen at 6.5% in the financial year beginning April 1. Reuters GraphicsFinancial stability concerns appear to have prompted the pause in rate hikes, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ India c.bank set to raise rates 25 bps on elevated inflation, keep hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank has already raised rates by 250 basis points since May last year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was also expected to have stayed high between 6.05%-6.12% in February, according to estimates from three economists. "The policy space to focus on inflation is lent by domestic growth conditions holding-up, supported by urban consumption and services sector recovery," Sen Gupta said. Early signs of a slowdown in India are also visible in easing imports and plateuing bank credit demand. The Reuters Poll showed that a majority of respondents, 20 of 36, expect the central bank would maintain its 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance while the remaining 16 said it would shift to neutral.

REUTERS/Thomas White/IllustrationMUMBAI/NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - A surge in India's services exports, which hit a record high in the October-December quarter, is expected to shield the economy from external risks as a slowing global economy will likely weigh on the country's merchandise exports. Services exports will likely surpass goods exports by March 2025, he said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIT services still accounted for 45% of India's total services exports in April-December. EXTERNAL SHIELDThe continued rise in services exports is likely to help rein in India's current account deficit. There is room for further growth with India's share in world commercial services exports currently just at around 4%."

☆ China's demand comeback to help oil weather banking crisis: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Bharat Gautam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A survey of 45 economists and analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $86.49 a barrel this year, down from February's estimate of $89.23. "The dip in oil prices is more of a blip at the moment, rather than a sustained move below $80 per barrel". Most analysts polled by Reuters expect oil prices to stay below $90 on fears of a recession in developed economies stemming from interest rate increases to bring down inflation. "Oil demand in China should pick up a bit further over the year. Reuters GraphicsAlong with China, prices will also hinge on potentially declining Russian oil production due to Western sanctions, with a combination of the two likely tightening global supplies, analysts said.

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