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☆ The S&P 500 broke out to a 13-month high and is flashing a 'rare signal.' Here's what analysts are saying
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is flashing a "rare signal" that suggests the market rally has some legs, Bank of America says. He noted it's only the 25th time that the broader index notched a new 52-week high after a long pause of 300 or more calendar days between 52-week highs. "And what it does suggest is that the S & P should have stronger-than-average returns going out from 10 days to a year, and even two years later." Of the previous 24 signals, the S & P 500 notched a double-digit gain 16 times. For example, while the S & P 500 has notched a new 52-week high, only a small percentage of the index has managed the same milestone, which suggests narrow leadership.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, it's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky Organizations: Bank of America Locations: United Kingdom

☆ The history of cyclical bull markets suggests the S&P 500 could rise to 4,900 by next summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If history is any guide, the S & P 500 could climb to 4,900 by next summer, Bank of America says. The S & P 500 closed Friday at 4,298.86, and has breached the 4,300 level during trading on Monday. However, history suggests these cyclical bull markets could continue for some time. Meanwhile, one year after the S & P 500 enters a bull market, the index was higher a majority of the time. For investors, that could mean the S & P 500 could rally as high as 4900 by next summer, the strategist said.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier Organizations: Bank of America

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bull market? Not really
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The S&P 500 inched up 0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.16%. In sum: Despite calls that we're in a new bull market, it's not so certain, especially since the S&P is still more than 10% off its all-time high. Keep an eye out for the consumer price index and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week for clearer signs on whether the S&P is really on track to welcome the bulls.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, everyone's, JPMorgan's Michele, FactSet Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Federal

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Don’t get too bullish yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The S&P 500 inched up 0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.16%. The S&P had four straight weeks of gains, but more significantly, it's up 20% from its October low. "Everything we own in our portfolios, we're stressing for a couple quarters of -3% to -5% real GDP," Michele said.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, everyone's, JPMorgan's Michele, FactSet, Michele Organizations: NYPD Emergency Service Unit, Financial, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, General Motors, Bank of America, Federal Locations: Manhattan , New York City

☆ Many are declaring the bear over, but a new bull market is more a process than a single moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The review is merely to note that the beginning of a potential bull market is a process, not a moment, occurring as the weight of the evidence gradually shifts in favor of the optimists. A new bull market, even if in place, doesn't always mean a timely sprint to hefty further gains. In a bear market, that's toppy; while in a bull market backdrop, such a level of optimism is fairly routine. In a bear market, 14 is "too low," In a bull market, it's middling. The S & P 500 has built a cushion with which to absorb routine pullbacks without jeopardizing the broader trend.

Persons: JFK, didn't, –, doesn't, Stephen Suttmeier, Bull headwinds, I've, they've, there's Organizations: Bank of America, Investment Group, Lehman, Investment, American Association of Locations: New York, –

☆ 2 Bullish signals suggest the S&P 500 could surge 19% to record highs over the coming year, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are two bullish signals that suggest the stock market could trade to record highs by early next year. BofA says a bullish breakout in global breadth means the S&P 500 could surge 19% from current levels. "Bullish technical backdrop signals support the case for a higher S&P 500 into year-end and early 2024," BofA said. "Bullish technical backdrop signals support the case for a higher S&P 500 into year-end and early 2024." This bullish indicator triggered a breakout in February, and that "does not rule out S&P 500 4,900 into February 2024," Suttmeier said.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's year-to-date move into the red on Thursday may signal more choppy, range-bound trading ahead, technical analysts say they don't think it's an omen for new multi-year lows. Chart experts say the closely followed blue-chip Dow Jones average could test long-term moving averages. .DJI YTD mountain The Dow Failing to hold above its 200-day moving average of 32,707 could mean more downside ahead for the 30-stock average, said JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM. "On average the stocks have an aggregated [earnings] surprise of nearly +10%, but the stocks are not being rewarded," O'Hara said of earnings season for Dow stocks thus far. Now, the Dow is the only one of the three in the red on the year as investors favor growth stocks over value.

☆ BofA's Stephen Suttmeier: We have a lot of stability for equities
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Stephen Suttmeier: We have a lot of stability for equitiesStephen Suttmeier, chief equity technician at BofA Securities, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential for a bullish breakout, trends in stocks versus bonds, and the April technicals.

☆ Investors who 'sell in May and go away' this year could miss a big summer rally in the stock market, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors that follow the old Wall Street adage "sell in May and go away" could miss a summer rally this year, according to Bank of America. The bank found that the stock market tends to rally during the summer of the third year of a presidential cycle. "Instead of 'sell in May and go away' it should be 'buy in May and sell July/August,'" BofA said. The old Wall Street adage references the fact that the stock market has historically performed weak during the six-month period of May through October. "May can be a weak month for the S&P 500, but if you 'sell in May and go away' you could miss a Summer rally," Suttmeier said.

☆ Chart analysts see danger ahead as tech comeback starts to lose steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent comeback in technology stocks is beginning to lose its luster, and that could mean trouble for the broader market. "We think the clock is ticking on tech's absolute and relative performance, and expect it to catch-down to the rest of the market," Krinsky wrote. That's created a resistance range between 12,881 and 12,944 and a first support level within the 12,466-12,400 range. Suttmeier also sees promise in the fact that the Nasdaq has held support within range of its 11,695 mid-March low and 12,000. "If the NDX continues to hold this support, the US equity market can stabilize and build a bigger base," he wrote.

☆ A 100 year-old stock market indicator is flashing bearish signals that point to more pain ahead for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There is a bearish divergence developing between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While the transports index made a higher high in January, the transportation average did not. Dow Theory is a more than 100-year old technical indicator that suggests if transportation companies are doing well, so should the broader economy. Dow theory suggests that the relationship between the two indexes could send a broader signal to investors about the future direction of the stock market. "These bearish divergences into late 2022 and early 2023 show a disconnected equity market, keeping the bearish signal for Dow Theory from early 2022 intact," Suttmeier said.

☆ S&P 500 forms bullish ‘golden cross’ pattern. Here’s what typically happens next
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, the broad market index formed what Wall Street calls a "golden cross," which happens when a 50-day moving average crosses through and above the 200-day moving average. Traders and analysts use the golden cross as an indicator that a market trend is about to turn more positive. There have now been 37 golden crosses on the S & P 500 since 1950, according to Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick. For some analysts, it's only considered a golden cross if the 200-day is sloping upward. But golden crosses tend to shine when associated with recessions, according to Bank of America chart analyst Stephen Suttmeier.

☆ Traders wonder if Fed will change its rate outlook to better match market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

and what the market believes ( The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in February, another quarter point in March, then stop, and will likely lower rates slightly by the end of the year). If inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to move lower, the market will believe Powell is winning the fight against inflation. "As goes January, so goes the year" The S & P 500 ended up 6.2% in January, the first up January since 2019. "January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S & P 500 data back to 1928," Richard Suttmeier at Bank of America chart analyst told clients in a note. S & P 500: avg.

☆ The market's technical picture is getting active traders very excited
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P closed at a new high for the year Thursday, up 5.75% for the year. Consider: The S & P is breaking a long-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) that goes back to the historic high on January 4, 2022. The percentage of stocks in the S & P 500 trading above their 200-day moving average is expanding. The rally is broad-based, with both value and growth stocks in the S & P 500 up almost equally (6.2% and 5.4%, respectively). "You have to get through the 4,100 level, you have to stop the routine of lower highs and lower lows," one trader told me.

☆ Investors are holding near-record levels of cash and may be poised to snap up stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But the question is this: Will those investors return any time soon, especially with sentiment still so sour and stocks at risk of a major selloff? Total net assets in money market funds rose to $4.814 trillion in the week ended Jan. 4, according to the Investment Company Institute. At the same time, money market funds are actually generating a few percentage points of income for the first time in years. Consider that sweep accounts, where investors hold unused cash balances in their brokerage accounts, can park those amounts in money market mutual funds or money market deposit accounts. To me this was people basically selling the market at the end of the year, and they just parked it in the money market funds.

☆ The S&P 500 hasn't bottomed before a recession since WWII
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"History suggests that if the US economy experiences a recession, the SPX bottoms out during the recession and not before. Only the March 1945-October 1945 recession saw the SPX rally ahead of and throughout the recession," the note said. Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer is one of the Wall Street pros that sees a recession and a market bottom coming soon. He pointed to the historical track record of market bottoms coming after the start of a recession as one reason for short-term pessimism about the market. We would enter 2023 with a more defensive posture, with an eye on adding risk as the market begins to more fully reflect the likelihood of recession," Dwyer said.

☆ The traditional December bounce for stocks may be more elusive, but it’s still possible
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In those years, December was just the fourth best month, with the S & P 500 rising 1.35% and gaining 68% of the time. As the S & P 500 exits November, it is down about 17% this year. The S & P 500 could mirror some of the other very negative years. For instance, the S & P 500 was down 18.5% through November in 2002, and then bottomed in March 2003, gaining 26.4% that year. Watching key levels In order to confirm a bullish cycle, Suttmeier said the S & P 500 needs to regain the 40-week moving average at 4,033.

☆ The S&P 500 needs to clear 3 big hurdles to convince investors the bull market has returned, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

ideThe S&P 500 has three technical levels to clear before signaling to investors that a new bull market is here, according to BofA. The bank said the S&P 500 holding support at 3,900 is a bullish sign that confirms its recent breakout. BofA analyst Stephen Suttmeier is monitoring three key technical levels that currently serve as an important resistance target for the S&P 500. If the market can clear these hurdles, it would be a signal to investors that a new bull market has arrived following a nearly year-long long cyclical bear market. The S&P 500 traded just above 3,950 in Monday's session.

☆ The biggest takeaway from Bank of America's earnings, and what it means for the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. There has been no net downside since June 16 even with yields higher, earnings expectations slipping and recession anticipation becoming entrenched. And the S & P has not even bounced back to Friday morning's high at this point, so it could be simply a bit more noisy, untrustworthy action. This market has many issues, but the valuation of the typical stock is no longer one of the top ones. Here we see year-ahead P/E ratios for the S & P 500, equal-weighted S & P 500 (back near late-2018 lows) and S & P 600 Small Cap (near Covid crash low).

☆ The charts of Tesla, Ark and bitcoin are all flashing the same big warning for investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The charts of bitcoin, Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF are all showing the same thing: That the market for the some of the riskiest holdings is at an inflection point. "I do think the S & P 500 is vulnerable to 3,400," he said. "I'm not bearish on the S & P simply because of these charts, but they do add to the conviction." "The weakness from one area will leak to the S & P." Sohn described Ark, bitcoin and Tesla as emblems for the "speculative corner of the market." Like the Nasdaq, trading in Ark, Tesla and bitcoin is tied to the direction of interest rates.

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