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☆ US consumer sentiment deteriorates in March, inflation expectations retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. While the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, economists expect tighter financial conditions will undercut consumption and push the economy into recession. A separate report from the Conference Board showed its Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, dropped for an 11th straight month in February. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%.

☆ U.S. consumer sentiment ebbs in March; inflation expectations ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%. Mining output fell 0.6%, with oil and gas well drilling dropping 3.1%. Industrial productionCapacity utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, dipped 0.1 percentage point to 77.6% in February.

☆ US manufacturing output ekes out gains in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Manufacturing output gained 0.1% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%. The small gain in manufacturing, together with the rise in utilities, offset the drop in mining, leaving overall industrial production unchanged last month. Industrial output rose 0.3% in January. Capacity utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, dipped 0.1 percentage point to 77.6% in February.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) indexes leading gains. Apple Inc rose 1.9% after Morgan Stanley said the stock could rally more than 20% this year on potential hardware subscription. Dell Technologies Inc (DELL.N) slipped 0.9% after it forecast current-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, hit by an ongoing demand slump in its PC business.

☆ Futures rise as yields retreat from highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Central bank officials including Bostic and Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak later in the day. ET, Dow e-minis were up 82 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.29%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.N) rose 2.3% after the laptop maker gave an upbeat full-year earnings forecast. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes , which closely tracks short-term interest rate expectations, rose to 4.9%, its highest level since 2007. "You also got a tick up in the ISM prices paid, which means that prices generally are rising now for manufacturing. That's higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to raise the policy rate. Money market traders see an about 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike later this month, but the odds of a bigger 50 bps rate hike have grown recently. The main U.S. benchmarks ended February with losses as investors braced for the possibility that the Fed will hike rates more than initially thought on signs of resilience in the economy.

☆ U.S. manufacturing output surges in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Manufacturing output increased 1.0% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. Two additional rate hikes of 25 basis points are expected in March and May. The increases in manufacturing and mining offset the tumble in utilities, leaving overall industrial production unchanged. Industrial output dropped 1.0% in December. Capacity utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, rose 0.6 percentage point in January to 77.7% in January.

☆ Dow soars 700 points after December jobs and services activity reports boost hopes for Fed rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped Friday after December payrolls and services-sector data. The economic data showed signs of easing inflation, bolstering hopes the Fed will cut interest rates this year. The S&P 500 avoided a fifth consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's services-sector report showed prices paid decelerated while services activity shrank for the first time since May 2020. Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman sees just a 5% chance the S&P 500 pares back the losses it's logged since March 2022.

☆ Dollar holds firm on hawkish Fed bets, Aussie tad higher after RBA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. Investors had been on watch for signs of a pause in tightening after inflation unexpectedly cooled last month. "And with the RBA expecting inflation to continue higher and household spending remaining strong as ever, then the RBA may well hike by another 25 bps in February and March before reassessing." In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner.

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. The Aussie dollar rose 0.21% to $0.6713, clawing back some of a 1.4% overnight tumble. In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner. "We expect the RBA to change its forward guidance in a subtle but significant way from 'expects to increase interest rates further' to 'likely to increase interest rates further' or 'willing to increase interest rates further,' (which) would indicate the RBA considers it is at or at least near the end of its tightening cycle," pushing the Aussie lower.

☆ Future rise after strong month on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.58%, S&P 0.82%, Nasdaq 1.05%Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday after a strong October on Wall Street, as investors clung to hopes that the Federal Reserve will signal a slower pace of future interest rate hikes as economic growth slows. But traders are hoping that the Fed could soon pause its rate hikes or at least shift to a less aggressive stance. ET, Dow e-minis were up 190 points, or 0.58%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 119.75 points, or 1.05%. ET, is expected to show manufacturing PMI fell to 50 last month after declining to 50.9 in September. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ From 'labor hoarding' to layoffs: Get ready for a brutal U-turn in the job market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( George Pearkes | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

This desire for positivity may explain the popularity of a hot, new theory about the job market: labor hoarding. A bet on the futureThe idea of labor hoarding is basically an assumption about the bet that companies are making on the future of the labor market and customer demand. Another helpful tool to see how businesses are adapting to the labor market is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly Business Employment Dynamics report. Instead, we're seeing a more-balanced response consistent with a tight labor market that is losing some steam. So when the real pain starts, there's a good chance the US will quickly shift from labor hoarding to layoffs.

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