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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Congratulations on getting through May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The old Wall Street adage to sell in May and go away held true this year — aside from AI-related stocks, that is. Cryptocurrency might want to divorce itself from traditional financial systems, but it can't escape the gravitational pull of Wall Street. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

Persons: Dow, Walt, Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Nike, Walt Disney, Chevron, Nvidia, The

☆ CNBC Daily Open: We made it through May — and maybe the debt ceiling too
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. For the month, the S&P inched up 0.3%, the Dow sank 3.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 5.8%. Stock futures mostly ticked down Wednesday night even after the House passed the bill to suspend the debt limit. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Dow, Walt, Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Washington , DC, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Nike, Walt Disney, Chevron, Nvidia, The Locations: Washington ,

☆ Get ready to sell Nasdaq stocks, according to Wall Street seasonal theory
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It's almost time to part with the Nasdaq Composite as the tech-heavy index approaches a typically weak period, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. In pre-election years, June is an even better month for the Nasdaq, averaging at a 2.4% gain. "Over the last 52 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule. From July 1 through Oct. 31, the Nasdaq averages a gain of just 0.2%, the Almanac pointed out. Both indexes average more muted returns during that period, leading to an old Wall Street adage that says, "Sell in May and go away."

Persons: NASDAQ's, pare, Michael M Organizations: Nasdaq, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty

☆ Next week promises any debt deal relief may prove short-lived with jobs report, Fed decision looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "

☆ Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling 'X-date' is not here yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Good news for markets next week: no default, no credit agency downgrade, no apocalypse. Worrying 2011 precedent Recent history tells investors that stocks will move more violently during a debt ceiling standoff. Retail sales update Debt negotiations aside, investors get updates next week on the state of American consumer spending when April retail sales are reported Tuesday alongside earnings from Home Depot. Deutsche Bank estimates that April retail sales expanded month over month by 0.7%, the market consensus. Credit Suisse is less optimistic, forecasting that April retail sales grew by 0.6%, but, excluding vehicles, were unchanged.

There's an old Wall Street adage that urges investors to "sell in May and go away" — but CFRA Research says there's an even smarter way to play the market this spring. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac , the worst six months of the year for the S & P 500 starts in May and runs through October. The strategist says traders can look toward defensive names during the May slump, instead of entirely exiting the market. Indeed, since 1990, while the entire S & P 500 gained 6.7% annually, average price gains from equal exposure to these four sectors returned 9.0%. The stock almanac's editor, Jeff Hirsch, said that reducing long exposure and adopting a defensive stance will pay off for investors during the low period.

☆ What to watch for in the markets in the week ahead: Monster tech earnings, then sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.

☆ Next week's stock market moves hinge on the longer-term outlook for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.

☆ S&P 500 and Nasdaq on pace to snap three-week win streaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 and Nasdaq on pace to snap three-week win streaksDavid Harden, CEO and CIO of Summit Global Investments, and Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of Stock Trader's Almanac, join CNBC's "The Exchange" to break down Wednesday's market action.

☆ Strong first quarter has the bulls even more excited about the rest of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Since the height of the financial crisis three weeks ago, the S & P 500 is up over 300 points, roughly 8%. Not surprisingly, the rest of the year is almost invariably a strong year. When the S & P 500 advances 7% or more in the first quarter, it's up an average 23% for the full year. April: spring shoots Best month for Dow Industrials: average 1.9%. advance Up 16 straight from 2006 to 2021 End of "best six months" strategy Source: Stock Trader's Almanac

☆ Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is about to enter one of the seasonally strongest months of the year, but volatility could persist in the week ahead with fading momentum and a big jobs report. The stock market is closed that day to observe Good Friday. Week ahead calendar Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, March Tuesday 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders, Feb. 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, Feb. Wednesday 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications 8:15 a.m. ADP, March 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Service, March Thursday Earnings: Constellation Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday The stock market is closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls

☆ April is usually the best month for the Dow. Here’s how much it typically goes up and why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

By comparison, the Dow has gained around 0.7% in an average month since 1950. April has historically been the second best month for the S & P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq Composite (and second best for Russell 1000 and third best for the Russell 3000). More good news: The Aprils of previous pre-election years have posted an even stronger average performance. Lately, the Dow Industrials have exhibited strength following the tax filing deadline, per the Almanac, which falls on April 18 this year. A March advance would mark a reversal from February, when the Dow Industrials lost 4.2% and briefly gave up all of its early 2023 gain.

☆ Traders wonder if Fed will change its rate outlook to better match market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

and what the market believes ( The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in February, another quarter point in March, then stop, and will likely lower rates slightly by the end of the year). If inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to move lower, the market will believe Powell is winning the fight against inflation. "As goes January, so goes the year" The S & P 500 ended up 6.2% in January, the first up January since 2019. "January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S & P 500 data back to 1928," Richard Suttmeier at Bank of America chart analyst told clients in a note. S & P 500: avg.

☆ January Barometer looks like it will be positive, giving bulls a psychological boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The so-called January Barometer starts 2023 positive with the S & P 500 up 4.6% to start the final trading day of the month. As for the S & P 500 , bulls want to keep the momentum going. To maintain that, the S & P has to stay well above the 4,000 range. Several companies (UPS, Exxon Mobil, Whirlpool) reported revenues that were lower than expectations. 2023 S & P earnings estimates: (year over year) Q1: down 1.7% Q2: down 2.2% Q3: up 3.8% Q4: up 10.1% Source: Refinitiv Want a good example?

☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."

☆ A 'January Effect' rally is happening in small cap stocks. Jefferies has some names to keep playing it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks have surged in the first few weeks of January, confirming an outperformance that's often seen early on in a new year. So far this year, the Russell 2000 Index – which tracks small-cap stocks — is up 7.4% through Monday's close, outperforming its large-cap counterpart, the Russell 1000, which is up 5% in the same period. Even within small-cap names, the smallest companies by market share have performed the best, according to a Jan. 24 note from Jefferies. "With the calendar turning to the new year, we have seen a nice relief rally in the smallest of the small caps with names below $500M [in market capitalization] up 11.3%," wrote Jefferies small-cap strategist Steven DeSanctis. Restaurants Bloomin' Brands —which owns chains such as Outback Steakhouse and Bonefish Grill — and Dave & Buster's top the Jefferies list of small-cap names with higher-quality themes.

☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.

☆ Technical analysts agree January's strong start is a good omen, but here's what they expect to happen next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Redler expects the S & P 500 could reach 3,980 to 4,000 before reversing lower. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,940 on Monday. He expects the S & P 500 to put in a near-term top this week. He is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, which is literally the average of the last 200 closes. "The SPX [S & P 500] has spent the majority of the last three weeks between 3,800 and 3,900," Krinsky wrote in a note.

☆ Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors look for 'Santa Rally' after grim year in U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Bruised investors are hoping a so-called Santa Claus rally can soften the pain of a tough year in U.S. stocks and potentially brighten the outlook for 2023. Friday is this year's start date for this rally named after Santa Claus - if it happens. The phenomenon has lifted the S&P 500 an average of 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. A December without a Santa rally has been followed by a weaker-than-average year, data from LPL Financial going back to 1950 showed. "The lack of a 'Santa Claus rally' this month, with a 'lump of coal selloff' in its place, is a troubling sign about 2023 US equity returns," strategists at DataTrek wrote.

☆ Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mostly lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.6% as of Friday morning. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years.

☆ Investors see typical seasonal patterns failing with little hope for a Santa rally or January bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The usually reliable indicator historically shows the S & P 500 gains 73% of the time in the coming year when rising during those seven days. When the S & P was negative, the market was up about half that amount for the year, just 4.7%. The S & P was down 3.1% in February of 2022. In the year 2021, the S & P 500 gained 27%, but there are two distinct patterns following that type of gain. But, historically, whenever the decline started in the first or second quarter, the S & P 500 was higher by the end of the year 100% of the time.

☆ Wall Street's 'free lunch'? A simple holiday trade that tends to beat the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The almanac's editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch wrote that "this `free lunch' is an extremely short-term strategy reserved for the nimblest traders." Also listed on the table are the average percentage of analysts rating each one a buy and the potential upside represented by analysts' 12-month price targets. Five financial stocks also popped up: Capital One , Signature Bank , Extra Space Storage , Lincoln National and Global Payments . Three tech stocks, two utilities and one consumer non-discretionary and one healthcare stock each round out the screen. Salesforce and Signature Bank both offer potential upside of more than 70%, the highest of the 13, based on analysts' average price targets.

☆ Stocks challenged by technical factors as market heads into final trading days of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

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