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☆ Why one firm thinks a March cut is even more likely after 'surprise' Fed comments
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks a March cut is even more likely after "surprise" Fed comments. Powell's cautious tone sent stocks into the red on Wednesday, after he announced a March rate cut was unlikely. "We perceive such remarks as the Fed trying to herd the 'hawks.'" "We see higher probabilities for March cut than consensus," Fundstrat's Tom Lee wrote in a note on Thursday. Bank of America said Powell's remarks were a "surprise" to investors who have been pining for an early Fed pivot.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, —, Tom Lee, Jerome Powell's, Stocks, Powell's Organizations: Service, Fed, Bank of America, Business

☆ The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander's chief economist told Bloomberg. That's because inflation is likely to remain stubborn and cutting rates closer to the election date could be controversial. But according to Stanley, inflation numbers won't look as strong this year as they were toward the end of last year. But introducing the first rate cut closer to election day is trickier, and could be construed as a boost to incumbent president Joe Biden. And Stanley argued that based on their comments at the January meeting, the Fed doesn't seem close to being convinced about an early rate cut.

Persons: Santander's, —, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, We've, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service

☆ Luxury homes are more expensive than ever as the wealthy buck high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Luxury home prices have hit an all-time high, rising at twice the pace of non-luxury homes, Redfin wrote in a report on Wednesday. "Luxury prices are rising at twice the rate of non-luxury prices largely because so many affluent buyers are able to buy homes in cash, rendering today's elevated mortgage rates irrelevant," the release stated. "A lot of luxury buyers are coming in with cash, snapping up expensive homes," a Redfin Premier agent, Heather Mahmood-Corley, said. It's also that the supply of luxury homes is still low, driving up competition and pushing bid prices higher. The total number of luxury homes on the market also rose by 13%.

Persons: Redfin, Heather Mahmood, Corley, It's Organizations: Business Locations: Scottsdale, Tempe, West

☆ Why a Donald Trump presidency could cause an inflation spike
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWe've heard about may factors that could spark a renewed bout of inflation: Red Sea tumult, cash sitting on the sidelines, etc. According to analysts at Macquarie, if Donald Trump wins in 2024, it could pose an "inflationary threat" to the US economy. A big part of that risk has to do with "Trumponomics," specifically with regards to the former President's trade policy. The Fed's January meeting is scheduled this week where chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank's policy stance.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Thierry Wizman, Trump, Wizman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Macquarie, Republican, Fed Locations: China

☆ Unemployment will double by the end of the year with an economic hard landing inevitable, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Unemployment will double to 6%-7% and a hard landing will hit by the end of 2024, a Mizuho strategist said. "The inflation decline is not a benign indicator of, oh, we've done it, we've got a soft landing." "The hard landing will be a sharp increase in unemployment," Mizuho strategist Dominic Konstam told Bloomberg TV on Monday, forecasting unemployment rates at 6% or 7% by the end of the year. The labor market is increasingly coming into focus in the soft landing debate, as hiring stalls and layoffs increase. "The inflation decline is not a benign indicator of, 'oh, we've done it, we've got a soft landing,'" he said.

Persons: we've, —, Mizuho, Dominic Konstam, Goldman Sachs, Konstam, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, ata Locations: Covid

☆ The real estate market is a 'slow moving train wreck' as experts warn of a looming $700 billion default
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewThe US economy may be going strong, but the commercial property market is still in trouble. AdvertisementA $2.2 trillion mountain of commercial real estate debt is expected to mature by 2027, bringing a wave of potential distress as landlords refinance buildings at much higher rates. According to McDonald, the trillions in real estate debt barreling toward maturity, along with a $1.9 trillion pile of corporate debt, will force the Fed to cut rates this year. "Covid changed how people work [...] and then interest rates ran up very rapidly. Lower interest rates will save some buildings, some property owners, but not a majority of them.

Persons: —, Larry McDonald, McDonald, Don Peebles, Peebles, Covid Organizations: Service, Business, Fox Business, Washington D.C, Peebles Corporation Locations: Washington, New York City

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ These charts show how much traffic has plunged in the Suez and Panama canals — and the potential impact on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal and Panama Canal have dropped 50% from normal levels, according to Apollo Management's top economist. AdvertisementSuez Canal slowdownAbout 12% of global trade passes through the Suez Canal, according to an estimate from the US Naval Institute. Related stories"Normally, 200 ships travel through the Suez Canal from south to north over a week, but that number has recently declined to 100," Sløk wrote. Suez Canal traffic is down 50% APThe trouble in the Suez Canal has been ratcheting up as Yemen-based Houthi rebels have been launching attacks against ships in the Red Sea, forcing some ships to take longer — and costlier — detours. And although goods inflation has been tumbling, higher shipping costs could send that back up again if they continue to follow recent trends.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Service, Business, US Naval Institute, Apollo, Container, Shipping, Apollo Management, Macquarie Locations: Suez, Panama, Yemen, Red, Shanghai, Rotterdam, Drewry

☆ The Fed's big miss on inflation has doomed the US to recession this year, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. "Monetary policy now is as tight as it has ever been on the precipice of a recession," he said, barring an exception in 1984. The problem is that the Fed badly misread how long high inflation would linger, prompting it to raise rates much more aggressively than needed. In December, the core inflation print notched an annual 3.2% increase. "In 2019 when they missed by a mere 30 basis points it was enough to get a 75-basis-point mid-cycle adjustment."

Persons: —, Brevan Howard, Sully, Jason Cummins, Bloomberg's, Cummins, They've Organizations: Service, Business, Fed

☆ Mortgage rates will dip below 6% this year amid a stronger housing-market rebound, Fannie Mae says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fannie Mae now sees mortgage rates dipping below 6% in 2024, anticipating a stronger housing market rebound. "The outlook for both short term rates and mortgage rates is now decidedly lower than what we had previously forecast." As mortgage rates relax, it's also easing the "lock in" effect that had held the housing market in a chokehold. Fannie Mae revised its 2024 forecast for total home sales to an annualized rate of 4.96 million, up from its prior estimate of 4.79 million. And Fannie Mae now expects its home price index to increase 3.2% this year, after previously estimating a 2.8% uptick.

Persons: Fannie Mae, —, Fannie Mae's, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Israel's central bank estimates spending to fight Hamas will be about 10% of GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Israel's war with Hamas is costing the country the equivalent of 10% of GDP, the central bank's governor said. The Bank of Israel has estimated that it will cost about $58 billion between 2023 and 2025. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Hamas war will cost Israel the equivalent of a 10th of the country's GDP, the central bank's chief said on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe central bank has also stepped in to stop the shekel from sliding last year, providing $15 billion through swap lines, and pushing the currency up 8.8% against the dollar in November.

Persons: —, Amir Yaron, Yaron Organizations: The Bank of Israel, Service, Bank of Israel, Bloomberg Locations: Israel

☆ Office properties lead surge in commercial real estate delinquency rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Delinquency rates on loans backed by office properties jumped to 6.5% in the fourth quarter, an MBA survey found. Out of all the commercial real estate loan delinquency rates tracked by the survey, office loans led the pack. AdvertisementFinancial troubles continue to plague the office market, which led an increase in commercial real estate loan delinquency rates. Zooming out, the commercial real estate sector has been in a pinch ever since interest rate hikes made borrowing money a lot more expensive. AdvertisementStill, MBA's survey found that while the office market segment of commercial real estate is still wobbling, other slices of the sector are recovering.

Persons: —, multifamily, Jamie Woodwell Organizations: Service, Financial, Mortgage Bankers Association, Capital Economics

☆ War and climate change are the main obstacles to aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2024, strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

War and climate change are the main risks that could threaten aggressive Fed rate cuts, Macquarie said. That's because conflicts in the Middle East and a parched Panama Canal risk creating supply shocks that stoke inflation. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. "War and climate change are becoming the main risk to the view that the Fed cuts aggressively," analysts led by Thierry Wizman wrote in a note on Friday. Such turmoil can end up pinching consumers because the Red Sea is a major shipping artery — the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, carries about 12% of global trade.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, Wizman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Drewry, . Shipping, Maersk, CMA CGA, UK, International Monetary Fund Locations: Panama, Red, Africa, Yemen, Suez

☆ This is not a soft landing, and reaccelerating growth will bring back a more hawkish Fed, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementSo what's turning up the heat in the economy that could herald a hawkish return? "Non-cyclical components have continued to see strong growth in particular with strong post-Covid tailwinds to restaurants, hotels, and airlines," the economist explained. That pent-up demand that gushed over the economy after the pandemic wore off is still stoking consumer spending today, according to Sløk. Cyclical components of GDP growth rebounding Apollo ManagementMeanwhile, financial conditions have been easing since Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March last year.

Persons: —, Apollo, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Fed

☆ The US economy is in a Goldilocks period, and the Fed has a 'loaded gun' it can use if conditions worsen, Apollo co-president says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed has a "loaded gun" it can use if the Goldilocks economy worsens, Apollo Asset Management's co-president said. That's as the central back has kept rates high, giving policymakers room to lower them. "I would argue that the Fed put is back, sort of, on the market right now," James Zelter told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementZelter noted the Fed has maintained "fairly high rates," which currently stand at 5.25%-5.5% — the highest since 2001 . Those Goldilocks conditions have helped stocks rocket upwards, as markets bet on the end of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: That's, James Zelter, —, Zelter, Mohamed El Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg, Service, Apollo Asset Management

☆ Consumers are still willing to pay for the brands they love, says Zalora
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are still willing to pay for the brands they love, says ZaloraGunjan Soni, CEO of Zalora Group, says consumers in Asia are "opting for value," adding that the company's recent premium and luxury transaction volumes have grown nearly ten times.

Persons: Zalora Gunjan Soni Organizations: Consumers, Zalora Locations: Asia

☆ Markets are too optimistic about the economy, and 3 drivers behind big stock gains face headwinds, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are overly optimistic about the economy next year, Mohamed El-Erian said in a CNBC interview. Meanwhile, November's rally was driven by Goldilocks data, lower yields, and lower oil prices. According to the top economist, markets are overly optimistic about the economy next year. And thirdly, I don't think OPEC is going to stay quiet to see oil prices where they are now." AdvertisementAnd finally, falling oil prices may not sit well with OPEC+ countries, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have been slashing production to prop up oil prices.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, they've, I'm, Treasurys, there's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal, West Texas Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

☆ Reaction to Sam Altman's return as OpenAI CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Sam Altman, CEO of Microsoft-backed OpenAI and ChatGPT creator speaks during a talk at Tel Aviv University in Tel Aviv, Israel June 5, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Openai LLC FollowNov 22 (Reuters) - OpenAI said on Tuesday it had reached an agreement for Sam Altman to return as CEO days after his ouster, capping frenzied discussions about the future of the startup at the center of the artificial intelligence boom. THRIVE CAPITAL, OPENAI SHAREHOLDER"OpenAI has the potential to be one of the most consequential companies in the history of computing. "Sam Altman seems awfully powerful and it is unclear that any board would be able to oversee him. Altman and (Microsoft CEO) Nadella may have pushed to allow Altman a much freer hand."

Persons: Sam Altman, Amir Cohen, OpenAI, DANNI HEWSON, BELL, Altman, DANIELA HATHORN, Altman's, Greg, Brockman, ChatGPT's, would've, SUSANNAH STREETER, HARGREAVES LANSDOWN, Sam Altman's, KELVIN WONG, MAK, Nadella, hasn't, Supantha Mukherjee, Ankika Biswas, Bansari Mayur, Aditya Soni, Miyoung Kim, Nivedita Organizations: Microsoft, Tel Aviv University, REUTERS, BANK, OpenAI, MNC, OF, UNIVERSITY OF, UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE BUSINSS, Thomson Locations: Tel Aviv, Israel, UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE, OpenAI, Stockholm, Bengaluru

☆ Gold prices are headed for all-time highs and could eventually hit $2,500, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices are headed for all-time highs, according to Fundstrat's Mark Newton. The technical analyst also has an "intermediate target" for gold to reach $2,500. AdvertisementThis Thanksgiving may call for a feast on gold as prices push towards all-time highs, according to Fundstrat's Mark Newton. To be sure, different datasets have different record highs for gold, but they all go back to 2020. Either way, Newton sees gold prices eventually blowing well beyond those figures.

Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, —, Newton Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Market, Bloomberg

"i'm looking forward to returning to openai," Altman said in a post on the X social media platform late on Tuesday. Sam Altman attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S. November 16, 2023. OpenAI's previous board consisted of Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner and OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever and Quora CEO D'Angelo, who is part of the revamped board. In a post on X on Tuesday, Shear said he worked "~72 very intense hours" to bring stability - and ultimately Altman - back to OpenAI. When he was out of a job, CEO Nadella said Altman could head a new research team alongside Brockman and other colleagues departing from OpenAI.

Persons: Bret Taylor, Brockman, FRANCISCO, Sam Altman, OpenAI, Larry Summers, Adam D'Angelo, D'Angelo, Altman, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell's, Satya Nadella, Kyle Rodda, Carlos Barria, Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner, Ilya Sutskever, Steve Jobs, Greg Brockman, Sunday Altman, Emmett Shear, Shear, Nadella, Jeffrey Dastin, Aditya Soni, Shivani Tanna, Bansari, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Sam Holmes, Jane Merriman Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Microsoft, Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S, Thomson Locations: openai, U.S, OpenAI, Asia, San Francisco , California, Valley, San Francisco, Bengaluru

☆ History shows the S&P 500 sees double-digit growth the year after the Fed is done hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If that's the case, it could mean the S&P 500 can swing up by double-digits in the next year. The end of a rate hike cycle in January 1995 saw the S&P 500 jump 35.2% in the year after. Put those together, and the average growth in the S&P 500 after a rate top is 17.4%. AdvertisementAs for what happens to stocks after the central bank cuts interest rates, Rabe wrote that returns are "mixed" in the months that follow. "By contrast, rapid monetary and fiscal policy responses to the Pandemic Crisis helped US equities recover much quicker," Rabe wrote.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Jessica Rabe, Rabe, Jeremy Siegal Organizations: Service, Fed

☆ AI poster child Altman back at OpenAI, may have fewer checks on power
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Aditya Soni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, arrives for a bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) Insight Forum for all U.S. senators hosted by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., September 13, 2023. "Altman seems awfully powerful and it is unclear that any board would be able to oversee him. The board fired Altman last week with little explanation and attempted to move on by naming an interim CEO twice. "The fact that Summers and Taylor will join OpenAI is quite extraordinary and marks a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the company," Valle said. Sutskever, Altman and Taylor could not be immediately reached for comment.

Persons: Sam Altman, OpenAI, Chuck Schumer, Craig Hudson, Sam Altman's, Altman, Mak Yuen Teen, " Altman, Beatriz Valle, Bret Taylor, Salesforce, Larry Summers, Summers, Taylor, Valle, Jack Dorsey's, Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner, Ilya Sutskever, Adam D'Angelo, Sutskever, Sam, Gartner, Jason Wong, Aditya Soni, Mark Porter Organizations: Intelligence, Senate, U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Microsoft, National University of Singapore Business School, Wall, Elon Musk's, Twitter, ., Harvard, Democratic, OpenAI, Georgetown's Center for Security, Emerging Technology, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Uranium prices top $80 for the first time in 15 years as demand for nuclear power surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Prices topped $80 a pound as demand for nuclear power gains momentum. Uranium production has recently run into hurdles, but investor interest remains solid. AdvertisementA nuclear power renaissance is fueling investor interest in uranium, helping to drive the price of the key energy commodity to a 15-year high. Uranium futures tracking a form of uranium called "yellowcake" hit $80.25 a pound on Monday, Bloomberg reported. Prices have been on the rise this year after a decade of trading sideways, due to growing demand for nuclear power.

Persons: — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Crux, Terra Capital, Segra, Argonaut Capital Partners, Bloomberg Intelligence Locations: Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Canadian, Niger, Europe

The startup's newly appointed interim head moved quickly to dismiss speculation that OpenAI's board ousted Altman due to a spat over the safety of powerful AI models. It was not clear why Murati had stepped down as interim CEO. [1/4]Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S. November 16, 2023. Some of those joining Altman at Microsoft include senior researchers Szymon Sidor and Jakub Pachocki, according to Brockman. Microsoft had supported a return by Altman to the startup, according to sources, a move that seemed likely only hours prior to Monday's announcements.

Persons: OpenAI, Emmett Shear, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, OpenAI's, Altman, Shear, Ilya Sutskever, we've, Sutskever, Mira Murati, reinstates Altman, Brockman, Bret Taylor, Will Hurd, Murati, Carlos Barria, Richard Windsor, Satya Nadella, Szymon Sidor, Jakub Pachocki, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Nadella, Jeffry Dastin, Anna Tong, Krystal Hu, Akash Sriram, Aditya Soni, Urvi, Shubham, Stephanie Kelly, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Miyoung Kim, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Chizu Nomiyama, Anil D'Silva Organizations: Microsoft, FRANCISCO, Google, OpenAI, Reuters, Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, Radio Free Mobile, Thomson Locations: OpenAI, Texas, Asia, San Francisco , California, U.S, San Franciso, New York, Bengaluru

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