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Big bank investors owe thanks to Team America
  + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Wells Fargo has managed to keep even more for itself, passing on just 26%. Finance chief Jeremy Barnum reckons $50 billion of deposits flowed into his bank and stayed put, more than offsetting other outflows. Elsewhere in Dimon’s letter, he describes himself as a “red-blooded, patriotic, free-enterprise and free-market capitalist.” Investors may lap that up, but his bank’s earnings show other forces at work too. Wells Fargo reported $4.7 billion of earnings, 34% higher than the previous first quarter, and took a $1.2 billion quarterly provision for credit losses. Citigroup reported $4.3 billion of earnings, a 7% annual increase, while smaller rival PNC made $1.6 billion, an 18% increase.
Recession risks have increased as turmoil snarls the financial sector, according to an IMF report Tuesday. "Recession concerns have gained prominence, while worries about stubbornly high inflation persist." "Much uncertainty clouds the short- and medium-term outlook as the global economy adjusts to the shocks of 2020–22 and the recent financial sector turmoil. Recession concerns have gained prominence, while worries about stubbornly high inflation persist." There is a significant risk that the banking turmoil will tighten global financial conditions more than anticipated, which would further weaken business and consumer confidence, the IMF said.
Ishara S. Kodikara | Afp | Getty ImagesThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than 30 years. The D.C.-based institution said that five years from now, global growth is expected to be around 3% — the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook since 1990. "The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic," the Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook. IMFIn the short term, however, the IMF expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund's estimates published in January. Banking turmoilThe IMF said that its baseline forecast "assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained."
How much short sellers contributed to the downward spiral reprises the debate about whether so-called shorts are market watchdogs or opportunistic investors who profit from others’ misery. In the case of the banking crisis, a review of data and interviews with short sellers and their critics show, the answer may be both. Some high profile short sellers were later celebrated as making prophetic calls about the U.S. housing market. Even so, interviews and public postings show at least some short sellers had placed bets against regional banks well before the crisis hit. SHORT POSITIONSSuch early short sellers, however, were in the small minority.
The crackdown on crypto banking is squeezing digital-asset businesses. The U.S. affiliate of global crypto exchange Binance has struggled to find a bank for its customers’ cash after the failure of Signature Bank left it without a key banking partner, people familiar with the matter said. Users’ dollar deposits were previously sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital Corp., according to Binance.US’s website. The failures of Signature and Silvergate, both seen as friendly to crypto companies, left many crypto firms rushing to find new banking partners.
April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. arm of cryptocurrency exchange Binance is struggling to find a bank to handle its customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank (SBNY.PK) last month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. Previously, the deposits were sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital Corp (SI.N), both seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, the exchange is rushing to find a new banking partner, according to the report. The company has unsuccessfully tried to establish relationships with Cross River Bank and Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI.N), the report said, adding that banks are reluctant due to concerns over regulatory risk. Reporting by Akanksha Khushi in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. arm of cryptocurrency exchange Binance is struggling to find a bank to handle its customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank (SBNY.PK) last month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. Previously, the deposits were sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital Corp (SI.N), both seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, the exchange is rushing to find a new banking partner, according to the report. The company has unsuccessfully tried to establish relationships with Cross River Bank and Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI.N), the report said, adding that banks are reluctant due to concerns over regulatory risk. Reporting by Akanksha Khushi in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Jamie Dimon sees higher recession odds after March's banking turmoil. Dimon broke down why markets are better positioned than during the Great Financial Crisis. The current banking crisis is not over yet, Dimon says, adding that the industry will feel repercussions for years to come. Still, Dimon says the current situation is very different from the Great Financial Crisis and not nearly as severe. A handful of specialists banks failed in March, sending shockwaves through financial markets.
Bank stocks still remain under pressure and that signals the sector's turmoil hasn't ended yet, Jim Bianco said. Financial stocks faced a rout over the past month following the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The KBW bank stock index is down 3% this week, after a 25% slump in March that was the biggest monthly drop in three years. Shares of lenders and other financial companies have been under pressure since the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital last month. Otherwise, the bank stocks might be in trouble ... oh, wait!," Bianco, who runs Chicago-based Bianco Research, tweeted on Wednesday, alongside a chart showing sharp declines in bank stock indexes.
April 4 (Reuters) - Short sellers made a whopping $848 million in paper profit by betting against beleaguered First Republic Bank (FRC.N) in March, financial data company Ortex said on Tuesday, making it the most profitable short trade last month. The lender's shares slumped 88.6% in March, its worst monthly performance, as the U.S. banking crisis fueled fears that the San Francisco-based bank could also fall prey to the issues that hit Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Silvergate Capital Corp wound down operations on March 8 and days later Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized by regulators amid liquidity crises, denting investor confidence in the U.S. banking sector. Reporting by Medha Singh and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"The current pace of deposit loss to MMFs raises questions over sustainability," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Friday client note. "If it continues for a prolonged period, more US banks could eventually run out of reserves and face liquidity issues similar to SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate." The ongoing deposit flight has created a problem for banks that have to maintain a base of assets against their deposit totals. In the current case, the situation has seen banks dip into reserves to cover their capital requirements, a situation that JPMorgan called potentially dangerous. Bank reserves have declined sharply since the Fed began curtailing then ultimately reversing its quantitative easing.
Morgan Stanley initiates Sunnova as overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees 124% upside for the solar company. " Morgan Stanley downgrades First Solar to underweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock mainly on valuation. Bank of America adds Lowe's to the US 1 list Bank of America added the home improvement giant to its top ideas list. Bank of America names Netflix a top second-quarter pick Bank of America said it's bullish on the streaming giant as the second quarter begins. Morgan Stanley downgrades Marqeta to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of the card payment and solutions company that it sees too many negative catalysts. "
While Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may have slowed, the economic downturn they could have brought on is still possible, CNBC's Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money" on Monday. That's because the banking crisis that began with Silicon Valley Bank could very well "hasten the downturn that never seemed able to get off the ground," Cramer said. Rather, it'll show up in how consumers and small businesses alike are able to obtain credit, he said. And for travelers, it might mean Yellowstone instead of a bonanza overseas trip, Cramer said. But the consumer is most likely to feel the sting at home, at the dealership and when they're planning their vacations, he said.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq made a remarkable resurgence, soaring nearly 17% in its best quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2020. The labor market has remained red hot, despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening campaign. The number of job openings fell in January , signaling a slight cooling but still hot labor market. The March jobs report. Friday: March jobs report and February consumer credit.
The case for a new crypto bull market has been slowly growing since the beginning of the year and gained more strength still in March. For Orsini, the new bull market in crypto began on Jan. 13, when bitcoin broke through its 200-day moving average. "But an enduring secular bull market will have clarity and regulation underpinning it." "When that framework gets introduced you're going to be closer to the beginning of a secular bull market." Less liquidity, bigger swings Bull market or not, investors agree it'll be no straight line up over the next few months.
Back when bulls were everywhere From the time the great bull market began in 1982 until the financial collapse of 2007, we pretty much assumed stocks would always go higher. We often forget what the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was all about. A runaway bull market in all but banks — which are actually fueling the rally with their own ineptitude. My closing take, though, is that we have at last shaken off the ghosts of the Great Recession. But accept we are in a bull market and recognize that those who don't know it yet never will.
The US economy is going to crash-land into a recession in the second half of 2023, according to Allianz. "Rapidly tightening credit conditions, exacerbated by the banking crisis" will fuel the downturn, Allianz said. Allianz is expecting the turmoil that's rocked the US's regional banks in recent weeks to fuel a credit crunch. The turmoil could leave banks more risk-averse and result in a pullback in lending, according to Allianz. "While credit growth has still held up, a significant decline in bank lending seems inevitable amid the collapse of monetary aggregates."
The broad-based S&P 500 seesawed throughout the quarter, ending January on a high note before tumbling in February, rising again in March and ultimately ending the quarter up about 7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq made a remarkable resurgence, soaring nearly 17% in its best quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2020. That comes after a tough 2022 for tech stocks, as investors sought out less risky avenues to ride out turbulence from the Fed’s interest rate hike campaign. Bond prices rose as investors wagered that the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates as high as previously expected due to the banking crisis. Wall Street largely shrugged it all off, however, with stocks recouping their losses — and then some — as investors started snapping up tech stocks, boosting the broader equity market.
The broad-based S&P 500 seesawed throughout the quarter, ending January on a high note before tumbling in February, rising again in March and ultimately ending the quarter up about 7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq made a remarkable resurgence, soaring nearly 17% in its best quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2020. That comes after a tough 2022 for tech stocks, as investors sought out less risky avenues to ride out turbulence from the Fed’s interest rate hike campaign. Bond prices rose as investors wagered that the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates as high as previously expected due to the banking crisis. Wall Street largely shrugged it all off, however, with stocks recouping their losses — and then some — as investors started snapping up tech stocks, boosting the broader equity market.
He is seeking details about the firm's insider trading policies and how officers handled their stock sales from January 1. A spokesperson for First Republic declined to confirm the firm received a subpoena or comment on the stock sales. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized by regulators days later amid liquidity crises, actions that sapped investor confidence in the sector. SHARE SALESSeveral First Republic executives have sold shares this year, including founder and Executive Chairman James Herbert. Herbert and Roffler did not respond to requests for comment on their stock sales or the subpoena.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSBF pleads not guilty to latest charges, and OKX to turn over some frozen FTX assets: CNBC Crypto WorldCNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Alex McDougall, the CEO of Stablecorp, weighs in on all of this month's digital asset developments, including the collapse of crypto-friendly banks Silvergate and Signature as well as the CFTC's lawsuit against Binance.
Industry insiders said the bank collapses have sent investors looking for alternatives to the traditional banking system and there is also anticipation of a slowdown in interest rate rises, which is helping bitcoin. Bitcoin climbed sharply Wednesday as investors shrugged off initial fears surrounding U.S. regulators' crackdowns on industry giants and became willing to take some risk. Bitcoin has retaken the $28,000 level after dipping below it on Monday following news of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission FTC's lawsuit against Binance. Investors have taken some comfort from the thought of a reversal in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking moves, which put pressure on risk assets like stocks. Bitcoin has been known to follow movements in equity markets, with investors treating it like more of a traditional risk asset.
Fed rate hikes: They were so quick that they left any bank that bought too many longer-duration bonds, in an attempt to pick up a little more yield, heavily underwater. The Powell Fed sees the current problems. The fact is, though, we need a strong banking system and without one, you can forget about getting credit without paying too high a price for it. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
If there is a senior Goldman Sachs' executive in your life, please keep them in your thoughts and prayers. Insider's Dakin Campbell has the scoop on Goldman nixing plans to buy a third corporate aircraft under CEO David Solomon. So as the bank has looked to cut costs this year more broadly, the private jets, naturally, were a topic of discussion. I will say, I think corporate jets have been unfairly labeled as the poster child for excessive spending at the corporate level. Now, regional banks are looking to serve the firms looking for a new banking home, per The Wall Street Journal.
The Federal Reserve is once again having to resolve a complex set of problems, according to Mohamed El-Erian. But there's no "first best policy response" the Fed can take amid the banking turmoil, he said. "That is the most important question right now — the degree of economic contagion resulting from this mishandled interest rate cycle." Customers have pulled around $1 trillion in deposits from smaller banks since the Fed started raising rates, according to JPMorgan. The economist said he believes the Fed can sort out the interest rate mismatches that have squeezed companies.
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