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☆ The Trapped Economy: Americans Can't Buy a Home, Car, or Find a New Job
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-20 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

If you like your situation right now — your job, your house, your car — you can keep it. The labor market has cooled off somewhat, making it less advantageous to hunt for a new job. The car market is in a similar situation. Employers are hiring as if there's a relatively weak labor market, not a strong one. Yes, the labor market is strong, but it's not a great time to go looking for a new job.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, there's, they're, —, Dana Peterson, that's, it's, Matt Darling, Darling, Tamara Charm, Charm, Emily Stewart Organizations: University of Michigan, Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Companies, Employers, Niskanen, McKinsey, Business

☆ Market doomsayer Jeremy Grantham says stocks are at 'illogical and dangerous' levels — and warns the AI bubble will pop
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US stocks are priced for perfection in an "imperfect and dangerous" world, Jeremy Grantham said. The top investor said AI could be bigger than the internet but the initial bubble would likely pop. AdvertisementStocks are dangerously overvalued and poised to disappoint, the AI bubble is bound to burst, and a recession appears likely, Jeremy Grantham has warned. Yet he said the rollout of ChatGPT "rudely interrupted" that process by inflating a whole new bubble around AI. "So it is likely to be with the current AI bubble," Grantham said, predicting it would "at least temporarily deflate and probably facilitate a more normal ending to the original bubble."

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham's, —, Grantham, there's Organizations: Service Locations: Europe, Asia

☆ Jeremy Grantham says outlook for U.S. stocks is as poor as ever, sees initial AI bubble eventually bursting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets, issued a bearish long-term outlook for the stock market on Tuesday, seeing the dramatic rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks as a speculative bubble. He foresaw the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000 and the 2008 bear market, and he also correctly called the bear market in 2022. The S & P 500 has rallied since late October 2023 to hit consecutive record highs, powered by megacap technology names. Dominant AI chipmaker Nvidia has rallied another 81% this year, following a near 240% advance in 2023. Grantham, now 85, believes the full effects of technological revolutions like AI often don't materialize until after an initial bubble bursts.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Van Otterloo Organizations: Co, Nvidia Locations: Boston, Grantham, Mayo

☆ Market prophet Gary Shilling warns stocks could crash 30% — and says the odds are 'very much in favor of a recession'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.

Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, —, Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback

Thanks to high mortgage rates, mortgage refinance rates, and even higher home prices, the mood among hopeful homebuyers has been fairly bleak. Is there a chance the housing market will crash anytime soon? Though a large number of Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond. The US is currently between 2.3 million and 6.5 million units short of a healthy housing supply, according to Realtor.com. What a housing market crash would mean for homebuyersAnything is possible, and nobody has a crystal ball to see for certain what will happen in the housing market in the coming months and years.

Persons: —, homebuyers, Fannie Mae's, Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: Service, Housing Survey, National Association of Realtors, Housing Locations: Chevron

☆ U.S. Treasury yields fall as investors assess the state of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was down by over three basis points to 4.2677%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.6912% after dipping by more than two basis points. U.S. Treasury yields declined Tuesday as investors considered economic data and the state of the economy. Some of this week's data could also provide hints about what the path ahead for Federal Reserve interest rates could look like. The most recent inflation data for January, however, came in hotter than expected, suggesting to investors that inflation could be more persistent than anticipated.

Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Americans have racked up a trillion dollars in credit card debt. That’s actually okay
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.

Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA

☆ Wall Street will try to maintain AI-fueled momentum in the final week of February, as inflation concerns linger
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan

☆ The Fed has a very strong case to keep rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America

☆ The number of home sales per real estate agent is at its lowest level in over a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, Apollo's Torsten Slok said. There are also fewer real estate agents per 1,000 jobs in states like California and New York as people flock to southern states. And it's slowing things down for real estate agents. The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, a note from Apollo Management's Torsten Slok stated. Real estate agents per 1,000 jobs Apollo ManagementThe cost of living and even the climate have helped warp the market.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok, —, Apollo Management's Torsten Slok, Sløk, There's, Still Organizations: Service, Apollo, San Locations: California, New York, Florida , Texas , Arizona, Colorado, Real, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, New York City

☆ The epic stock rally will end badly, the AI bubble will burst, and the economy will sink, warns elite investor Jeremy Grantham
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Jeremy Grantham warned US stocks and the economy are headed for trouble. The elite investor and market historian said the AI frenzy is a bubble that's bound to burst. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "Please be advised, the rest of the world is looking with amazement at the US, the US economy, the US stock market," he said. It's worth emphasizing that the US stock market and economy have defied Grantham's warnings of crashes and recession for several years now, and might well continue to do so.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, —, you've, it's Organizations: Service, Exchange, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Miami, Ukraine, Gaza

☆ Home Prices May Be Sky-High, but America Is Not in a Housing Bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.

Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, ”, Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns current market conditions are worse than in 99.9% of history — typically meaning stocks are ripe for a 10%-30% sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America

☆ A soft landing is now likely. But Americans will still deal with unaffordable housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA

☆ Home prices began to cool in November after nine straight months of gains, S&P Case-Shiller says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Home prices in November fell 0.2% from October, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. Prices nationally were still higher than the year before, and those annual gains increased again relative to the prior month. They rose 5.1% from November 2022, up from a 4.7% annual increase in October. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices." Prices rose 8.2% in November, followed again by San Diego with an 8% increase.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Brian Luke, Luke Organizations: Federal Reserve, Detroit, Midwest Locations: Lake Pointe Subdivision, Austin , Texas, Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, San Diego, Portland , Oregon

Home prices declined slightly in November while posting yearly gains, suggesting the housing sector has cooled somewhat heading into 2024. The house price decline came at a time where mortgage rates peaked, with the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8%, according to Federal Reserve data. But as more inventory comes on the market and mortgage rates remain elevated, sale prices may be beginning to wilt. That has led some analysts to say that the market could bounce back as the traditional spring buying season begins. The index tracks a three-month period when mortgage rates were zig-zagging and ended on a down note, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Persons: ”, Brian Luke, San Francisco, Cleveland –, Luke, “, Freddie Mac, Selma Hepp, Danielle Hale Organizations: Dow Jones, Seattle, Cleveland, Midwest, Federal Reserve Locations: “, San, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York

☆ The US housing market has ended a 9-month streak of price gains
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The latest S&P Case-Shiller national home price index data published Tuesday — which offers the three-month average for September, October, and November closing prices — showed a moderate slowdown in price gains. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months." However, each saw annual gains of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. The biggest annual price gains came in Detroit and San Diego, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."

Persons: —, Brian D, Luke, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: Detroit, San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, Portland

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ Wall Street is barreling toward a big week ahead with megacap earnings, Fed meeting in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street is headed into the thick of earnings season, with results on deck from the bulk of the so-called Magnificent Seven names. On top of that, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and the January jobs report will be in focus. Federal Reserve meeting Investors aren't anticipating much out of the Fed meeting next week. Market participants say recent reports show the trends have been going in the right direction, and Friday's report is expected to confirm the softening in the jobs market. Other significant earnings in the week ahead include Boeing , a major Dow component.

Persons: Russell, we've, Shannon Saccocia, Jonathan Krinsky, Tesla, that'll, Hogan, you've, John Bailer, Jerome Powell, Tony Welch, Welch, FactSet Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan, Riley Securities, Newton Investment Management, Fed, PCE, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dallas, Whirlpool, Petroleum, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Pfizer, Devices, ADP, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Apple, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Thursday's, nonfarm payrolls, Chicago, Royal Caribbean, Michigan

A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. Economists say consumers appear to be responding to steadily slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market. What's more, paychecks have outpaced inflation over the past year, thereby easing Americans' adjustment to a higher cost of living. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesEven with the steady slowdown in inflation, prices are still nearly 17% higher than they were three years ago, a source of discontent for many Americans. It would be too painful.”Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and also a former Fed economist, acknowledged that "people are angry” about higher prices.

Persons: Joe Biden's, What's, ”, Grace Zwemmer, Marshall, “, Dana Smith, Smith, Ryan Cummings, ” Cummings, Biden, Robert Shiller, David Andolfatto, “ Let’s, Claudia Sahm, Josh Boak Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Oxford Economics, Marshall, Trump, Democratic, Fed, University of Miami, Sahm Consulting Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Atlanta, Matthews , North Carolina, Charlotte, Washington

☆ There are 3 bullish signals flashing that point a recovery in the housing market, Compass CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The housing market is flashing signs of life, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin said. AdvertisementThe housing market is flashing a handful of bullish signals for the year ahead, according to Compass CEO Robert Reffkin. The founder of one of the nation's top real estate brokerages said he believed the housing market will be on the path to recovery in 2024. But more owners appear to be moving out of necessity or have warmed up to the idea of selling as mortgage rates head lower. At this rate, buyers are outpacing sellers in the market, Reffkin said, noting that Compass's real estate agents are seeing more business in the new year.

Persons: Robert Reffkin, Reffkin, —, brokerages, Freddie Mac, Sam Lafoca, LM Otero, Sellers, Phil Noble, I've, Barbara Corcoran Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, CNBC, Community, Getty, Associated, REUTERS, Mortgage, Association, New Locations: lancaster California, USA, Dallas, Kirkham, England

☆ A housing expert who nailed the prediction for 2023 says home prices to jump 7% this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nik Shah, a housing expert who was spot-on in his forecast for last year, said prices could climb 7% in 2024. "Barring a black swan event, we predict that the housing market in 2024 will appreciate more than 2023," Shah told the real estate outlet. Related storiesFor reference, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index notched a 4.8% annual gain up to October 2023, in line with Shah's estimate. At the same time, aging boomers will lead to an uptick in housing supply, which will should help ease prices. Meanwhile, findings from a separate Zillow survey suggest that the housing market could be breaking free from the "rate lock" phenomenon that froze activity last year.

Persons: Nik Shah, ResiClub, —, Shah, hasn't, Gen Z Organizations: Service, metros, Owners Locations: Austin, Boise, Denver

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ 50 cities showing where rents are surging or dropping compared to home values — and how to determine whether it's worth buying or renting, according to experts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But home prices are still on the rise, according to a November 28 note from Selma Hepp, the chief economist at CoreLogic. The outcome is that many remain renters, which drives up demand for rental property and the cost of rent. If the cost of rent is 20% below the price of owning a home monthly, then it may be comparable. Rent prices are based on listings from Rent.com. For example, take the cost of rent over five years; let's say it's $3,000 x 12 months = $36,000 annually.

Persons: Selma Hepp, they'll, Suzanne Miller, Miller, Price, Shmuel Shayowitz, Shayowitz Organizations: Business, Home, Empire State, Seattle -, Dallas, Fort, Redfin, Kansas, Jacksonville, Birmingham, NA Milwaukee, Phoenix, Boston, Orlando, Virginia, KY, UT, Oklahoma Locations: Redfin . Metro, Seattle, Dallas, Seattle - Tacoma, Bellevue, Everett, Tacoma, Fort Worth, Metro, Columbus, Providence, RI, Kansas City, Angeles, Buffalo, NY, Indianapolis, York, Hartford, Jose, Antonio, Minneapolis, Detroit, MI, Virginia Beach, Louis, Washington, San Diego, Atlanta, Richmond, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Tampa, WA, Denver, Riverside, CA, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, NC, Orleans, LA, Nashville, TN, Memphis, Raleigh, Louisville, Jefferson County, Houston, Salt Lake City, Miami, Chicago, Sacramento, Vegas, Portland, Austin, New York City

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