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Although commanding a weighting of just 0.936%, lower than any other industrial metal, lead is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) for the first time this year. LME lead three-month price, stocks and spreadsSTOCKED OUTLME lead stocks fell by 54% to 25,150 tonnes over the course of last year. The distribution of LME warehouse stocks says a lot about the underlying stresses in the physical supply chain. China has emerged as a supplier of last resort to a stretched Western market. REBALANCINGThe lead market that has been trying to rebalance for two years and the return of Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter in Australia after three months of maintenance should help.

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - March 2022 will go down in the history books as the moment the global nickel market broke down. The search is on for a new nickel price discovery process. Global Commodities Holdings (GCH) thinks it has a solution, a blast from the LME's own distant past that could have far-reaching consequences for industrial metals trading. This is self-evidently true of the LME nickel contract, which simply could not absorb the scale of short positions accumulated by China's Tsingshan Group. It may not just be nickel players keeping a close eye on GCH's proposed new metals pricing solution.

LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China's imports of primary aluminium jumped to a one-year high of 110,700 tonnes in November in a significant reversal of the recent trend. China's imports and exports of primary unwrought aluminiumTRADE FLOWS FLIP AGAINChina's primary aluminium export surge has passed. Global aluminium production monthly change annualisedSLOWING MOMENTUMChina's renewed import appetite for primary aluminium looks at odds with the combination of lockdown-weakened demand and strong domestic production growth. Expressed in terms of annualised production, China's collective run-rate has dropped by almost 1.2 million tonnes since August. Sichuan briefly rationed power to industrial users, including aluminium smelters, in August because of a protracted drought in the hydro-rich province.

☆ Indonesia confirms bauxite export ban to proceed as scheduled
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Fransiska Nangoy | Bernadette Christina | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The timing of Indonesia’s ban, however, is in line with its current mining law. The measure, which led to a dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO), also helped boost the value of Indonesia’s exports. China was the biggest importer of Indonesia’s bauxite until Jakarta introduced a mineral export ban in 2014, which it lifted in 2017. Indonesia’s bauxite reserves are enough for up to 100 years production, he said. He said there was a possibility that legal action could be pursued against Indonesia for banning bauxite exports, but it would not deter him.

London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks of the galvanising metal total 36,525 tonnes, the lowest amount this century. LME zinc price, spread and stocks; Shanghai Futures Exchange stocksSMELTER DISRUPTIONGlobal refined zinc output fell by 3.2% in January-October, according to the ILZSG, matching the drop-off in usage. Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) estimates total "social" inventories of zinc ingot across seven domestic markets at a low 56,000 tonnes. The longer-term question-mark over Europe's power-hungry smelters hasn't gone away, injecting a whole new twist in the zinc market narrative. In the short term the zinc market is going to remain beholden to the European power market.

☆ China Nov aluminium imports fall amid rising domestic supply
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The latest November output number showed a ninth consecutive increase to 3.41 million tonnes. For the first 11 months of the year, the world’s top aluminium maker produced 36.77 million tonnes, up 3.9% from the corresponding period in 2021. Total imports in the first 11 months were 2.13 million tonnes, down 28.2% from the corresponding period last year. Imports of bauxite, the main source of aluminium ore, came in at 11.79 million tonnes last month. That was up 31.3% from October’s 8.98 million tonnes and up 53.6% from 7.7 million in November last year.

☆ Analysis: Turbulence still haunts LME nickel, months on from trade debacle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Months after turbulence highlighted shortcomings in LME oversight, the nickel contract remains broken. Declining liquidity, together with low stocks, has led to high LME nickel prices this year, pushing up costs for industrial users already grappling with surging inflation. LIQUIDITY SLUMPSMany investors, traders, consumers and producers have abandoned LME nickel in the aftermath of the chaos in March. LME nickel typically trades at a discount to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) contract because China is a net importer of nickel and the ShFE nickel price takes into account logistical costs and local taxes. "There's a major disconnect between LME nickel (futures) and the physical market," a nickel trader said.

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world is going to need another 50,000 tonnes of tin per year by 2030 to meet a looming surge in demand, according to the International Tin Association (ITA). The country exported 75,000 tonnes of refined tin last year with shipments running 8% higher through the first 10 months of this year. State producer PT Timah needs around two years to develop its existing tin chemical facility and longer to secure markets, Alwin Albar, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters, told a parliamentary hearing. China imported 22,600 tonnes of refined tin in the first 10 months of the year with Indonesian metal accounting for 19,000 tonnes. After peaking at 5,160 tonnes in September, headline LME tin stocks have fallen to 3,075 tonnes with 535 tonnes awaiting physical load-out.

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel trading has turned wild again this week. LME and ShFE nickel contracts price and volumeVOLATILITY TRAPThe fund exodus after March has left a liquidity vacuum and a self-reinforcing volatility trap in the nickel market. ("A financially constrained physical market", April 3, 2022)LME nickel trading volumes have fallen steeply since March. Year-to-date nickel volumes are 24% below last year's equivalent period, the scale of decline flattered by strong trading activity in January and February. But until inventory and volumes rebuild, time-spread turbulence and perma-backwardation are becoming the new normal in the Shanghai market.

☆ Nickel prices tumble as LME scrutinises volatile trading
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Marianna Parraga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Wednesday it was conducting enhanced monitoring of nickel trading after prices fell as much as 12% in volatile and illiquid conditions. The London Metal Exchange (LME) on March 8 cancelled all nickel trades and suspended the market for more than a week after prices doubled in a matter of hours. "The LME notes the current volatility in nickel," the exchange said in a statement. "The price limits in place are functioning as expected and the LME is undertaking enhanced monitoring to ensure that participants' trading activities are being conducted appropriately." Benchmark LME nickel racked up six consecutive days of gains between Nov. 8 and Nov. 15, starting the first at $23,330 a tonne and reaching as high as $31,275 on the last.

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - It's not the first time the 145-year-old London Metal Exchange (LME) has found itself in crisis. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMarch brought Nickel Crisis II, a much scarier update of the original, and now we have the unfolding Russian Metal Crisis. It's perilous legal territory and would have a significant impact on LME price and physical premiums. Meanwhile, CME's (CME.O) cobalt contract has steadily built up liquidity since its end-2020 launch even as activity in the LME's contract has steadily dwindled. Disgruntled funds have already voted with their feet, the collective departure causing LME trading volumes to slide by 6% over the first nine months of this year.

ShFE stocks, bonded warehouse stocks and Yangshan premiumSHANGHAI SQUEEZEThe ShFE copper contract has been characterised by low inventory and rolling tightness for some time. It is probable that troubled trade house Maike Group is also somehow in the Shanghai copper cocktail right now. LONDON'S RUSSIAN DILEMMAChina's strong call on copper is being felt in London, where falling LME stocks have rekindled time-spread volatility. The micro-macro divergence looks set to accentuate as LME stocks are stripped for shipment to China. Over 60% of LME copper stocks at the end of September were Russian metal.

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - European copper buyers are going to be paying a lot more to get their metal next year. Aurubis (NAFG.DE) cited a combination of high freight and power costs and low visible copper stocks. European annual copper premiumsSANCTIONS CREEPThere were no official sanctions on Russian copper until earlier this month, when the British government announced an asset freeze on Iskander Makhmudov. ASIAN DISCOUNTWhat will happen to all the Russian copper if Europe stages a collective boycott? The sharp hike in next year's European premiums says much about the cost of refusing Russian metal.

Indonesian nickel production by mine and productPOWERING UPIndonesia's nickel boom reflects both the country's rich mineral resources and the government's drive to push miners down the value-add processing chain. China's imports of nickel by product 2020-2022PRICING DOWNThis Indonesian supply surge was widely expected, but its exact timing was fuzzy given the number of new processing routes being used to convert ore to battery nickel. The combination of European demand shock, Indonesian production burst and the closing of the processing gap between stainless and battery nickel means there "is close to 30% downside for the nickel price into year-end". This mismatch of market-place and market is one of the reasons the LME nickel contract melted down in March. Macquarie Bank now provides three different nickel price forecasts for LME refined metal, Chinese nickel pig iron and Chinese nickel sulphate.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

☆ London copper price hits two-month low on strong dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

(Reuters) - London copper prices hit a more than two-month low on Monday, as a stronger dollar made greenback-priced metals more expensive to holders of other currencies. FILE PHOTO: A worker checks copper wires at Truong Phu cable factory in northern Hai Duong province, outside Hanoi, Vietnam August 11, 2017. LME aluminium hit an 18-month low of $2,151 a tonne, zinc eased 0.4% to $2,995.50 a tonne by 0326 GMT while tin rose 1.5% to $20,540 a tonne. The most-traded October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.7% to 60,840 yuan ($8,500.17) a tonne. ShFE nickel dropped 3.1% to 188,620 yuan a tonne, tin fell 3.1% to 178,510 yuan a tonne, aluminium declined 1.9% to 18,380 yuan a tonne and zinc was down 2.2% to 24,430 yuan a tonne.

LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses saw 11,200 tonnes of copper arrivals on Tuesday, the largest single-day warranting since June. LME inventory remains ultra-low by any historical yardstick, representing just two days' worth of global usage. At their peak of 175,000 tonnes in February last year they dwarfed registered LME copper inventory of 74,000 tonnes. Registered exchange stocks combined with LME shadow and INE bonded stocks represent the total statistically verifiable copper inventory landscape. Global Copper stocks, including LME Shadow and INE bonded...WHAT YOU CAN'T SEEThere is obviously more copper "out there" in the statistical dark.

REUTERS/Alexandre MeneghiniLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The puzzle facing the zinc market is whether demand or supply will fall hardest this year. LME zinc fund net positioningLOW STOCKSThe outright price is falling despite low exchange inventory. Fastmarkets assessments of Antwerp and Italy premiumsSUPPLY HITEurope is at the epicentre of the global zinc supply hit as smelters struggle to cope with soaring power prices. SHIFTING BALANCEZinc's micro dynamics are shifting fast and at the moment it seems that the demand hit is outpacing the supply hit. It's the demand outlook that's weighing on the outright zinc price.

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