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☆ Commercial real-estate prices could tumble 10% from their peak and defaults are sure to increase, Moody's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Expect commercial real-estate prices to plunge 10% from their peak, along with a wave of defaults, Moody's chief economist said. "Lots more CRE price declines are coming, with prices expected to be off 10% peak-to-trough by mid-decade," Mark Zandi said. Stress has been building in the commercial property industry as investors fret it could be the domino to fall in the US economy. "Lots more CRE price declines are coming, with prices expected to be off 10% peak-to-trough by mid-decade," he said. "CRE loan delinquencies and defaults are sure to increase, causing agita for the banking system.

But, given the hopes invested in China's economic growth and liberalisation, foreign firms' demand for expert knowledge about the Chinese market, the regulatory landscape, potential business partners and opportunities will inevitably keep growing. Smaller firms saw opportunity to fill the space left by any rivals, like Capvision, that fall foul of China's authorities. China's expert network market, however, will suffer from bad publicity in the short-term, as "no one wants to be associated with police crackdown," said Max Friberg, CEO of Inex One, a Stockholm-based marketplace connecting investors with expert networks. For now though, the trade in expert information clearly has become more cautious. "It's unfortunate that the expert network business gets into the public limelight in such a way," China Insights Consultancy (CIC), the country's second largest expert network company, said in a statement to Reuters.

To revive its fortunes, the government late last year published its Edinburgh Reforms agenda comprising over 30 proposed changes to existing rules. "There are a variety of factors that keep somewhere attractive in terms of investment, listing and being an international finance centre." "We want the UK to be the world's most innovative and competitive global financial centre," the spokesperson added. CHALLENGING ASSUMPTIONSSupporters of a more vibrant UK stock market are also increasing pressure on bankers managing IPO processes to challenge assumptions about London's poorer liquidity or post-IPO performance, relative to rival venues. Proposed changes to UK listings are encouraging, but may not be enough, said Steve Bates, BIA CEO.

☆ South Africa's Redefine reports 9.2% fall in distributable income
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

JOHANNESBURG, May 8 (Reuters) - South African commercial property group Redefine (RDFJ.J) reported on Monday that its half-year distributable income fell 9.2% and declared an interim divided of 20.32 cents, down 14.2% from the previous period. The group said its distributable income per share - the primary measure of underlying financial performance in the listed property sector - fell to 23.91 cents in the six months ended Feb. 28, from 26.33 cents a year earlier. But revenue was capped by negative rental reversions - when a tenant pays a lower rental on a lease than they did before - and disposals. The company said it expects full-year 2023 distributable income per share of between 48 cents per share and 52 cents per share. ($1 = 18.3833 rand)Reporting by Tannur Anders Editing by Nqobile DludlaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ European commercial real estate investment slumps to 11-year low in Q1 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - European commercial real estate investment fell to its lowest in 11 years in the first quarter of 2023, MSCI Real Assets said on Thursday, as investors spooked by higher interest rates and the economic outlook put acquisition plans on ice. The number of offices sold - Europe's largest real estate sector - fell to its lowest on record, while the volume of transactions slumped to a 13-year low of 10.8 billion euros ($11.94 billion). The UK kept its top spot as Europe's largest commercial real estate market, but Paris overtook London to become the region's most active investment destination, with the three largest European property deals of the first quarter all taking place in the French capital. ($1 = 0.9048 euros)Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, editing by Sinead CruiseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Malaysia slams 'unjust' EU deforestation law for blocking palm oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 (Reuters) - Malaysia on Thursday said it was disappointed over a European Union law banning imports of commodities linked to deforestation, fearing a hit to its exports of palm oil to the bloc. The law will apply to soy, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa, coffee, rubber, charcoal, and derived products including leather, chocolate and furniture. Malaysia said the law was a "deliberate effort" to increase costs and barriers for its palm oil sector -- a key source of export revenue for the Southeast Asian country. Smallholders account for 26%, or around 1.5 million hectares of oil palm planted area in Malaysia. Globally, more than seven million smallholders cultivate palm oil for a living and rely on the commodity to escape poverty.

☆ Ukraine's tech entrepreneurs fight war on a different front
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Michael Kahn | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

It's an example of how some startups in Ukraine's dynamic tech sector are switching to pursue military projects. Pavlo Kartashov, director of the Ukrainian Startup Fund (USF), a government-backed organization that seeds technology startups, told Reuters his group resumed funding in October. Demand from the government has driven the shift to military technology, but most of the entrepreneurs who spoke to Reuters said that patriotic duty also played a role. "There are much more ideas in military technology," said Krasovsky, the founder and chief executive of Swedish-Ukrainian Sigma Software Group. Groups like the Polish-Ukrainian Start Up Bridge - a Polish-government backed venture - offer emerging Ukrainian tech companies small grants to fund basic business needs and a co-working space in Warsaw.

☆ Citigroup sees global profits shrinking 5% in aftermath of banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 31 (Reuters) - Citigroup equity strategists flagged a likely 5% contraction in global profits this year as turmoil in the banking sector raises the risk of a recession. Financial markets have had a turbulent few weeks after the collapse of some mid-sized U.S. lenders and a Swiss-backed takeover of Credit Suisse spooked investors about liquidity stress in the banking sector. "Stress in the banking sector has reminded us of the consequences of monetary tightening. Going forward, we think investors' attention will increasingly shift from risks of higher rates to risks of recession," said Citi strategists led by Beata M Manthey. The ongoing confidence crisis could limit banks' risk appetite and reduce the flow of credit, they warned, downgrading the global financial sector to "neutral."

☆ Factbox: Asia's carbon pricing and emission trading systems
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Matthew Chye | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here is a look at some of the carbon emissions trading systems (ETS) and pricing mechanisms in Asian countries aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving net zero targets. * A carbon levy will be introduced from around 2028/29 on fossil fuel importers such as refiners, trading houses and electricity utilities. INDIA* Parliament in December passed the Energy Conservation (Amendment) Bill 2022 that sought to establish carbon trading. * Authorities are studying the implementation of a carbon exchange and plan to set up agencies to monitor and verify emission volume. MALAYSIA* The stock exchange launched a voluntary carbon market (VCM) in December with the introduction of the Bursa Carbon Exchange, the world's first Shariah-compliant carbon exchange.

☆ Two top bank analysts say the backstopping that's going on at the federal level will help stem the tide of recent losses in the sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo top bank analysts say the backstopping that's going on at the federal level will help stem the tide of recent losses in the sectorStephen Biggar of Argus Research and Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler discuss the health of the bank sector -- large-cap, regional and mid-size lenders -- amid the ongoing turmoil in the wake of the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, pressure on First Republic and UBS' takeover of Credit Suisse.

The $3.2 billion deal comes after a sudden burst of turmoil in the global banking sector - two U.S. bank failures then Credit Suisse's implosion - sparked unprecedented volatility in the U.S. interest rate and bond markets. chartChina's central bank announces its latest interest rate decision on Monday morning. Given the global banking and market turmoil swirling right now, a rate cut would not be a total shock. But no equity market will be able to ignore the seismic shifts in U.S. rates and bonds for long. China's President Xi Jinping is in Moscow, his first international trip since securing a third term as president, visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

☆ VIEW US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, stem financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. The fact that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will be made whole is critical in maintaining trust in the financial system and should help stem contagion fears this week. But it also means that 50 basis points (a possible Fed interest rate hike) is off the table." Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike."

☆ Instant view: US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, limit financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. ALVIN TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"Markets remain unsettled from the SVB failure. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN:"It was imperative that regulators stepped in and decisively acted before markets around the world opened for the week. GREG MCBRIDE, CHIEF FINANCIAL ANALYST, BANKRATE:"While the Fed has talked about a lot in the past year, until today it has been in the context of monetary policy.

[1/4] China's newly-elected Premier Li Qiang takes an oath after being elected during the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on March 11, 2023. Previously the Communist Party chief in Shanghai, Li was confirmed as premier during the National People's Congress, charged with managing the world's second largest economy. "Officials know that Li Qiang is Xi Jinping's guy," he said. "He clearly thinks that Li Qiang is a very competent person and he has put him in this position because he trusts him and he expects a lot of him." American author Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who met Li and Xi together in 2005 and 2006, said the two shared an easy rapport.

Previously the Communist Party chief in Shanghai, Li is poised to be confirmed as premier on Saturday during the ongoing National People's Congress, charged with managing the world's second largest economy. Trey McArver, co-founder of consultancy Trivium China, said Li is likely to be much more powerful than his predecessor. "Officials know that Li Qiang is Xi Jinping's guy," he said. "He clearly thinks that Li Qiang is a very competent person and he has put him in this position because he trusts him and he expects a lot of him." American author Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who met Li and Xi together in 2005 and 2006, said the two shared an easy rapport.

☆ Column: Europe's industry to feel the sting of high & rising carbon costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Gavin Maguire | Thomson Reuters | Gavin Maguire Is The Global Energy Transition Columnist. He Was Previously Asia Commodities | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

EU carbon credit pricesTwo-thirds of Europe's emissions stem from just three sectors: energy supply (24.2%), domestic transport (20.7%) and industry (20.7%), according to European Environment Agency (EEA) data from 2020, the latest available. Industry accounts for 25% of Germany's total energy consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), so any successful retooling of Germany's energy systems will likely set trends across Europe. That would mark a 42% drop in only 8 years, and compares to an 18.7% reduction in total emissions from 2010 to 2022. However, given the expected shuttering of Germany's remaining coal plants and least efficient gas-fed power stations, the energy sector's target may be reachable. Germany industry energy use by power sourceCertain sectors are banking on the roll-out of clean hydrogen for use as a fuel instead of natural gas.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. Labor Department is due to release its Consumer Price Index report for January at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT). For the purpose of calculating inflation, "housing" is considered a service. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEven outside of housing, the general pace of services inflation has been falling somewhat. Carpenter said he felt that one of Powell's top stated concerns, of low unemployment driving wages higher for workers in the services sector and keeping inflation elevated, may be overstated. "The link from wages to inflation is there, but small, and both services wage and price inflation are trending down," he said, noting a recent White House study indicating wage growth across key services businesses was declining.

Consumer price inflation in January is expected to have risen 0.7% on the month and at an annual rate of 2.2%, up from 0.0% and 1.8%, respectively, as the economy picks up following its COVID-19 pandemic paralysis. chartOn its own, economic re-opening will likely accelerate growth and inflation this year. Deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations could encourage some investors and businesses to rethink their exposure to China, potentially affecting Chinese assets and rippling through to others, like European equities and U.S. Treasuries. Risk assets are repricing accordingly. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI and PPI inflation (January)- Japan goods price inflation (January)- India industrial production (December)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

But the year-over-year price drops for goods have been helping pull overall inflation measures lower, the data compiled by the U.S. software company showed. "Current demand levels are driving retailers to hold prices down and continue to clear out excess inventory," Brown said. New CPI data is scheduled to be released next week, with economists expecting it to show another slowdown. The CEA study tried to isolate the pace of wage growth only in the sectors referred to by Powell, and concluded that it is slowing fast. Wage growth for production workers and supervisors "have both eased substantially."

Biden's public approval rating edged one percentage point higher to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Sunday. In the speech, Biden will hail the resilience and strength of the U.S. economy, which saw unemployment drop to a nearly 54-year low in January, while pledging continued efforts to lower inflation and protect Social Security and other benefits. [1/3] The U.S. Capitol building is seen on the day of U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 7, 2023. He will push Congress to require background checks for all gun sales and ban assault weapons, the White House said, although the prospects for passage remain slim. McCarthy said on Tuesday that he won't rip up Biden's speech, referencing the actions of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi after former President Trump's 2020 State of the Union address.

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden will face Republicans who question his legitimacy and a public concerned about the country's direction in Tuesday's State of the Union speech that is expected to serve as a blueprint for a 2024 re-election bid. Biden's public approval rating edged one percentage point higher to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Sunday. Reforms in policing will loom large in Biden's speech after the death of Tyre Nichols, a Black man fatally beaten by officers in Memphis, Tennessee last month, with his mother and stepfather to be guests of first lady Jill Biden. He will also run through a wish list of economic proposals, many of which are unlikely to be passed through Congress, the White House said. [1/3] The U.S. Capitol building is seen on the day of U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 7, 2023.

REUTERS/Elizabeth FrantzWASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden will face Republicans who question his legitimacy and a public concerned about the country's direction in Tuesday's State of the Union speech that is expected to serve as a blueprint for a 2024 re-election bid. Biden would urge lawmakers to "build on these historic bipartisan achievements" to improve the lives of Americans, Christen Linke Young, deputy assistant to Biden for health and veterans affairs, told reporters. He will also run through a wish list of economic proposals, many of which are unlikely to be passed through Congress, the White House said. They include a minimum tax for billionaires, and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Speaker Kevin McCarthy will sit behind Biden for the address for the first time.

Biden turned 80 in November and, if re-elected, would be 82 at the start of a second term, a fact that concerns many Democratic voters, recent polls show. Speaker Kevin McCarthy will sit behind Biden for the address for the first time. The two are at loggerheads over the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, which must raised in the coming months to avoid a default. Biden will insist during his speech that raising the debt limit is not negotiable and should not be used as a "bargaining chip" by lawmakers, National Economic Council director Brian Deese said Monday. While the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, faith in Biden is undermined by entrenched political divisions, high prices and concerns over his age, polls show.

☆ Scholz seeks to secure more critical minerals on South America tour
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Sarah Marsh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sebastian Rodriguez/Chilean Presidency/Handout via REUTERSSANTIAGO DE CHILE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a new, expanded commodities partnership with Chile on Sunday during a tour of South America that Berlin hopes will help secure more access to critical minerals key to the transition to a green economy. That has led to a reliance on China, which has invested widely in the mining sector in resource-rich South America and in processing commodities. Argentina and Chile sit atop South America's "lithium triangle" which holds the world's largest trove of the ultra-light battery metal. "We want to help Chile on the way to a sustainable mining sector," Scholz said in a news conference with his Chilean counterpart in Santiago de Chile on the second leg of his tour. Germany also wanted to ensure mining generated more jobs in the source countries, Scholz said.

☆ China agreed to form global sovereign debt 'roundtable' -IMF chief
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Chinese officials have agreed to form a global sovereign debt "roundtable" that would include a wide variety of stakeholders, including private sector creditors, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. China has argued that private creditors and multilateral development banks should be required to accept debt "haircuts" to make the process fair. "We agreed that we should form a global sovereign debt roundtable at the highest level - the key creditors, some of the borrowers, the private sector - with the World Bank, the IMF and the G20 presidency being the co-conveners," she said. The proposed roundtable offered a structure to help improve the debt treatment process and avoid a systemic debt crisis, she said. Georgieva, World Bank President David Malpass and other financial leaders met in China's Anhui province last week with officials from the People's Bank of China, China's finance ministry and its EXIM Bank and China Development Bank.

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