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As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California
From an investment perspective, Goldman Sachs analysts on July 15 pointed out there are notable catalysts for certain semiconductor and artificial intelligence China stock plays from August to December. Officials told reporters about plans to speed up "emerging and future industries," and expand the development of tech talent in China. Ways to play the space The bank has buy ratings on at least two Chinese companies in the industry. The Goldman analysts are also optimistic about growth for Chinese fabless companies, the businesses which design chips but outsource the manufacturing process. Montage generates nearly all of its revenue from servers, while Will Semiconductor draws about half of its revenue from smartphones, and one-third from automobiles, according to the Goldman report.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Biden, Goldman, 3Q24E Organizations: Officials, Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, ACM Research, Goldman, Will Semiconductor Locations: Beijing, China, TSMC, U.S, Shanghai, Friday's
Netflix reports after the bell Thursday, ushering in the start of earnings season for Wall Street's biggest media and technology giants. Analysts expect the streaming behemoth to post earnings of $4.74 per share on about $9.53 billion in revenue, according to analysts polled by LSEG. The analyst regards upside to subscriber additions, commentary surrounding margin expansion and a reacceleration in revenue as key for investors. Jefferies analyst James Heaney expects these programs and a strong content slate position Netflix well for a second-quarter subscriber beat. Netflix has made strides within advertising, disclosing in May that there were 40 million active monthly users in the tier.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan, Morgan Stanley's Benjamin Swinburne, Jefferies, James Heaney, JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth, Morgan Stanley's Swinburne, Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney, Jessica Ehrlich, Jason Bazinet, Piper Sandler's Matt Farrell, Farrell Organizations: Netflix, Wall Street's, LSEG, Bank of America
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday beat revenue and profit expectations in the second quarter, as demand for advanced chips used in AI applications continue to surge. The firm guided second-quarter revenue to be between $19.6 billion and $20.4 billion. Today, the demand is so high I had to work very hard to meet customer demand," Wei told analysts. TSMC projects third-quarter revenue between $22.4 billion and $23.2 billion. This compares to $17.3 billion in revenue posted in the same period a year ago.
Persons: C.C, Wei Organizations: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung, Intel, Apple, Nvidia, TSMC Locations: Taiwan, TSMC
Read previewThis as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Jimmy Sweeney, a 31-year-old dad who has been traveling the world with his wife, Brooke, and 4-year-old daughter, Isla, to find a new home since June 2023. Brooke and I have always loved traveling, and having a kid, we knew we didn't want to change that. We sold our house and started our journey in EuropeWe put our house on the market in April of last year. Seeing the stories kids in a place are growing up with is a great way to learn about a culture. We've loved a lot of places so farIt doesn't take long to understand whether you relate to or feel a part of somewhere.
Persons: , Jimmy Sweeney, Brooke, I've, We've, it's, Brooke Sweeney, Jimmy Sweeney I've, Isla, Jimmy Sweeney It's, We're, that's, You'll, Sweeney Organizations: Service, New Zealand, Business, China Locations: Australia, New, Fort Worth , Texas, Texas, Europe, Florida, Taiwan, Munich, Germany, New Zealand, Japan, Kuala Lumpur, Southeast Asia, Spain, Denmark, Goreme, Amber, Jaipur, India
But just how much value is there in these kinds of “value” meals? Well, actually, not as much as you may think, since prices for many key ingredients used in value meals are coming down. Cheese, potatoes and tomatoes are getting cheaperMany of the recently announced value meals use cheese, potatoes and tomatoes. Meat eaters benefit the most from the value meal warIf you eat meat, you’re more likely to benefit from some value menu items. Given that meat prices are rising at a faster pace than most foods, it’s no wonder most fast-food chains are only offering value menus for a limited time.
Persons: McDonald’s, Joe Erlinger, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Taco Bell, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, McDonald’s, Wall Locations: New York, Burger, McDonald’s USA
BP in 2020 set out its ambition to become a net zero company "by 2050 or sooner." BP shares dropped on Tuesday after the firm flagged it expects to post an impairment of up to $2 billion in the second quarter and warned of lower refining margins weighing on its results. BP shares were down 2.6% in early market trading at 08:39 a.m. London time. In a Tuesday statement, the company said it anticipates weak refining margins and oil trading performance will weigh on its second-quarter results, due out on 30 July. The energy firm also expects to record post-tax asset impairments and contract provisions in the range of $1 billon to $2 billion in the second quarter.
Persons: Biraj, Bernard Looney, Murray Auchincloss Organizations: BP, RBC, Shell Locations: London, Gelsenkirchen, Germany, Singapore, Rotterdam
The Shell logo is displayed outside a petrol station in Radstock on February 17, 2024 in Somerset, England. Energy giant Shell on Friday said it expects to record a post-tax impairment hit of up to $2 billion mainly linked to its Singapore and Rotterdam plants, while also saying trading in its key gas division will decline on the quarter. This comes after Shell on Tuesday announced it would temporarily suspend on-site construction at its 820,000 metric tons a year biofuels facility in Rotterdam amid current market conditions. The oil major also anticipates a second non-cash post-tax impairment of $600-800 million after agreeing to divest its Singapore refining and chemicals plant back in May. On the downside, RBC flagged "higher corporate costs and a neutral result from the chemicals division."
Persons: Shell Organizations: Energy, Shell, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Locations: Radstock, Somerset, England, Singapore, Rotterdam
RBC Capital Markets increased its 2024 year-end target for the S & P 500, but the bank is taking a cautious stance on its market outlook. Head of global equity strategy Lori Calvasina now sees the broad market index ending the year at 5,700, up from her previous target of 5,300. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 While she does see more upside ahead for the benchmark, Calvasina noted that valuations suggest the market is a bit overbought. There is also the risk that another short-term pullback — similar to what the market experienced in April — will take place, the strategist said. The S & P 500 has climbed nearly 15% year to date, with gains driven largely by chipmaker Nvidia and a small group of other megacap tech stocks.
Persons: Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, , We've, ” Calvasina, , chipmaker Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, chipmaker Nvidia
Cup Noodles is trying to change that — with a new s’mores-flavored instant ramen. While this marks Cup Noodles’ first foray into dessert territory, the noodle maker is no stranger to non-traditional ramen pairings. “Cup Noodles Campfire S’mores” is the latest in a series of seasonal flavors aimed at shaking up how consumers perceive the brand. Despite the saturated s’mores market, Saunders sees Cup Noodles as occupying a unique position that could get people talking because of ramen’s association with traditionally savory flavors. Stanton says younger buyers tend to be more playful with their tastes, adding that the s’mores flavor appeals to the connection between food and childhood memories.
Persons: Noodles, graham, , Nissin, Neil Saunders, It’s, ” Saunders, Priscila Stanton, , , there’s, Saunders, ” Nissin, Gen Z, Stanton, Saunders doesn’t Organizations: CNN, Walmart, Nissin, USA Locations:
Read previewStefano Secchi, chef and owner of Rezdôra in New York, has many opinions when it comes to what differentiates a high-end Italian restaurant from a gimmick. It's never a good sign when a restaurant is serving out-of-season ingredientsCaprese isn't always in season. If the classics aren't prepared and labeled properly, the restaurant is a hard sell for SecchiA good Italian restaurant wouldn't drown its pasta in sauce or butter. But it's a good sign if the oil is bursting with really rich and complex flavors and fragrances. A quality Italian restaurant should have a proper coffee serviceCoffee service is often the last chance for a restaurant to leave diners with a good impression.
Persons: , Stefano Secchi, Secchi, It's, you've, balsamic, She's, she's, Mats Silvan, he'd, it's, Alfredo, carbonara, Feifei Cui Organizations: Service, Michelin, Business, fugazi, Staff Locations: New York, Italy
A summer wave of Covid-19 has arrived in the US
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Deidre Mcphillips | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
CNN —Covid-19 levels have been rising in the United States for weeks as new variants drive what’s become an annual summer surge. That’s enough time to offer protection during the winter respiratory virus season but probably after this summer’s wave has ebbed. On Thursday, the CDC recommended that everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated Covid-19 vaccine for the 2024-25 season. Unlike flu and RSV, Covid-19 is constantly circulating; it doesn’t offer a reprieve. The changes are meant to “simplify RSV vaccine decision-making for clinicians and the public,” the agency said.
Persons: CNN —, , Robert Hopkins, ” Hopkins, Marlene Wolfe, , Dr, Jerry Weir, Marcus Plescia, Plescia, Sanjay Gupta, ” CNN’s Jen Christensen Organizations: CNN, US Centers for Disease Control, CDC, National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, Stanford University, Emory University, Emory, WastewaterSCAN, FDA, Viral Products, Vaccines Research, FDA’s, Biologics, Association of State, Territorial Health, CNN Health Locations: United States, , Covid
The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. Yes, but: Market volatility in an election year tends to pick up in October and there are many months left in this cycle with potential surprises to come. “An autumn pullback fits well time wise with potential downside earnings revisions, make-or-break decision time for the Fed, and election uncertainty. The first round of the French election will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.
Persons: Goldman Sachs —, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, they’re, It’s, Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, , , Mark Hackett, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Reid, There’s, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, Chris Isidore ., they’ve, Samantha Murphy Kelly, ChatGPT —, Siri —, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, hasn’t, Organizations: London CNN — Traders, Investors, White, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche, Fed, United, Labour Party, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, Alaska Airlines, Alaska —, Southwest —, Southwest, Railway Labor, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, Wall, IDC Locations: United States, France, , Alaska, China
Does off-season travel exist anymore?
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Lilit Marcus | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Then, you can plot a graph to see which months are higher and lower than that total to determine when the peak season is. “In Thailand, low season typically spans from April to September with April and May being really hot,” says Ponti. “During this low season the tourist volumes each month constitute more than 7% of the annual total. Angelos Tzortzinis/dpa/picture alliance/Getty ImagesArguably the biggest single factor affecting what we know as “peak season” travel is weather. “For me, the challenge is about finding the joy in those low seasons, finding those nuggets of gold.”
Persons: , Olivier Ponti, Ponti, Angelos Tzortzinis, Ged Brown, Mikey Sadowski, there’s, we’re, Sadowski, David Silverman, it’s, ForwardKeys ’ Ponti, Ann Woodward, , Woodward, , I’ve, , Brown, haven’t, ” Brown Organizations: CNN, United Nations, European Travel Commission, Intrepid, Travelers Locations: Italy, Hong Kong, Amsterdam, Japan, Canary, Spain, Thailand, Hawaii, Maldives, , , Athens, Greece, Europe, Denmark, Sweden, Nepal, Mexico, New York
But the print only served to further convince traders that an interest rate cut is not imminent. Money market pricing by 11 a.m. in London implied just a 5% probability of a trim of the Bank Rate during Thursday's BOE meeting — after recording stronger odds of such a step earlier in the week. Policymakers are equally focused on services inflation, key to understanding domestic price pressures in the country's services-oriented economy, which came in at 5.7% — higher than the 5.5% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. "I think the most disturbing thing lots of economists like myself are looking at right now is what's happening in services inflation. And those numbers have been proving a good deal stickier than we would like," Sproule said, with the BOE targeting services inflation of around 3%.
Persons: BOE, , We've, James Sproule, CNBC's, Sproule Organizations: Bank of England's, Bank of Locations: London, Bank of England
May retail sales rise 0.1%, weaker than expected
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A worker assists with check-out at a Costco store in Teterboro, New Jersey, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Retail spending was weaker than expected in May as consumers continued to wrestle with stubbornly higher levels of inflation. Sales rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the Dow Jones estimate, according to a Commerce Department report Tuesday that is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 2.3%. The sales number was worse when excluding autos, with a decline of 0.1% against the estimate for a 0.2% increase.
Persons: Dow Jones, Patrick Harker Organizations: Costco, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Teterboro , New Jersey, US
And no product is more important to Apple than the iPhone. New AI features that provide a compelling reason to upgrade when Apple rolls out the iPhone 16 in the fall could boost the company at a crucial time. Here’s the thing: No matter how Monday goes, Apple isn’t losing its status as a tech powerhouse anytime soon. The latter scenario — assuming the features are compelling — could spur the next major iPhone upgrade cycle and have ripple effects for the entire company. “That’s the key: if it’s compelling and not backward-compatible, Apple will have the first upgrade cycle in four years,” Luria said.
Persons: they’ve, Apple isn’t, D.A, Davidson, Gil Luria, Gadjo Sevilla, , Siri, Luria, ” Luria Organizations: New, New York CNN, Apple, CNN, , Nvidia, Microsoft, eMarketer, iOS, Samsung Locations: New York, China, WWDC
watch nowWhat an investor home purchase meansIn this context, investors are defined as any institution or business that purchases residential real estate, according to Redfin. Investor share refers to the portion of homes purchased by investors over a certain period, said Chen Zhao, senior economist at Redfin. Part of the recent increase in real estate investor activity is due to seasonality, as more homes are typically sold during the spring, Walsh said. Sales began to decline as mortgage rates climbed, as higher interest rates affect both typical homebuyers and investors, he said. What investor interest means for buyers and rentersIf you're a consumer buying on the market, you are competing against investors on top of other typical homebuyers, Zhao explained.
Persons: Chen Zhao, Zhao, Matthew Walsh, there's, aren't, Moody's, Redfin's Zhao, Walsh, Sales Organizations: Investor, Parcl Labs, Moody's, Investors, CNBC Locations: U.S
The chance to cook for a mystery guestChef Mauro Colagreco, seen here shaking Chinese leader Xi Jinping's hand, was one of three chefs invited to prepare the recent state dinner in France. In addition to the Plaisance restaurant in Hong Kong, his restaurant group now has five establishments in mainland China. Then, on the morning of the state dinner, the Mirazur team arrived to start preparing for the evening alongside the other chefs. Lai Sun DiningAt Colagreco’s Plaisance restaurant in Hong Kong, diners will get to sample all three of the dishes Xi and Macron were served during the recent state dinner. The cost of the three-course option starts from 1,888 Hong Kong dollars ($241), while the six-course menu is 2,888 Hong Kong dollars ($369).
Persons: Xi Jinping, he’s, Xi, Emmanuel Macron, Mauro Colagreco, Xi Jinping's, Laurent Blevennec, Colegreco, Colagreco, , , Fabrice Desvignes, Brigitte Macron, France’s, It’s, Mauro Colagreco's, Peng Liyuan, Pierre Gagnaire, Vin Jaune, verbena pavlova, Nina Métayer, Fromagerie Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, Michelin, Colagreco's, Colagreco’s, Hong Locations: Hong Kong, bao, Beijing, Europe, Paris, China, France, Plaisance, Menton, Elysee, Argentine, Mirazur, Asia, Shanghai, Cognac, Port, Madeira, Jura, refiner, Colagreco's Plaisance, Colagreco’s Plaisance
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew highs can continue given favorable seasonality, says Bank of America's Stephen SuttmeierStephen Suttmeier, Bank of America chief equity technical strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the strategist makes of the rally of the market lows in April, the market leadership, and more.
Persons: America's Stephen Suttmeier Stephen Suttmeier Organizations: America's, Bank of America
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September. That figure is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, suggesting consumers did not keep up with the pace of price increases.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services, Markets, Treasury, Federal Reserve
The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.
Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital
Disney Why we own it: We value Disney for its best-in-class experiential entertainment Parks business, which has proven to have immense pricing power. In the second quarter, the combined business — Disney+, India's Disney+ Hotstar, Hulu and ESPN+ — saw losses of $18 million, far better than the $659 million loss in the year-ago period. DTC profitability benefited from Disney+ core subscriber growth, higher retail subscription prices, increased advertising revenue on the back of higher impressions, and lower distribution costs. Clearly, Disney still has a big opportunity in sports as they execute on their DTC streaming strategy for ESPN. The atmosphere at the Disney Bundle Celebrating National Streaming Day at The Row in Los Angeles on May 19, 2022.
Persons: , Nelson Peltz, wouldn't, Hugh Johnston, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Presley Ann Organizations: Club, Revenue, LSEG, Disney, Parks, ESPN, Comcast, Netflix, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, CNBC, seasonality, Entertainment, Hulu, Hulu Live, Sports ESPN, College Football, National Football League, Walt Disney World, Disney Cruise, Disneyland, Hong Kong, Getty Locations: Hulu, India, Florida, California, Hong, Los Angeles
Stanley Black & Decker Why we own it: Stanley Black & Decker is in the later innings of a multi-year restructuring plan. The one problem is the broader demand environment is still mostly soft, preventing management from raising the midpoint of its outlook. This dynamic makes Stanley Black & Decker one of the more interest-rate-sensitive stocks we have in the portfolio. Stanley Black & Decker has been paying a dividend for 147 consecutive years, with increases in each of the past 56. Stanley Black & Decker power drills are displayed for sale at a Home Depot store in Colma, California.
Persons: Stanley Black, Decker, we're, there's, Stanley, Patrick Hallinan, Hallinan, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, David Paul Morris Organizations: Revenue, LSEG, Bosch, Techtronic Industries, Management, Industrial, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Colma , California
Thursday's analyst calls feature upgrades to discount retailers TJX and Burlington and used car outlet Carvana, while there was more bad news for CVS Health following a tough earnings report Wednesday. He also raised his price target to $130 from $70, or 49.2% above Wednesday's close price. He lowered his price target by $25 to $60, or just 5.6% higher from Wednesday's close price. Analyst Jay Sole also lifted his price target to $132 from $104, indicating nearly 41% upside from Wednesday's close. He raised his price target to $212 from $126, suggesting shares could gain 19.1% from where they closed Wednesday.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joseph Moore, Moore, Samik Chatterjee, Chatterjee, Tal Liani, Liani, — Hakyung Kim, JPMorgan Carvana, Rajat Gupta, Gupta, Kevin Caliendo, Caliendo, Jay Sole, Sole, BURL, — Hakyung Kim —, Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, CVS Health, UBS, CVS, JPMorgan, Qualcomm, Wall Street, Samsung, Huawei, Edge, headwinds, " Bank of America, Microsoft, Burlington Discount, TJX Companies, Burlington Stores, Burlington Locations: Burlington, Carvana, CY24, seasonality, optionality, Maxx
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