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Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up around 1 basis point at 4.709%. The 10-year Treasury note briefly broke above 4.4% in intraday trade on Tuesday to notch its highest level since late November. The 10-year Treasury note yield moved higher on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data. The market moves come as investors track economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed policymakers about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mary Daly, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Cleveland Federal, San Francisco Fed, PMI, Institute for Supply Management Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
  + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, , Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California
Fed's Daly: No urgency to adjust the rate
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Daly: No urgency to adjust the rateCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to report on San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's statements about the economy.
Persons: Fed's Daly, Steve Liesman, Mary Daly's Organizations: San Francisco Fed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 418 points, or 1.1%, on Tuesday after declining more than 500 points at its lows. That means the blue-chip index has sunk roughly 800 points during the first two days of the second quarter. On Tuesday morning, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.5% for the 12 months that ended in February, a faster clip than January’s price increase. Traders pulled back their expectations for a rate cut in June to about 62% from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, Jerome Powell, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Fed, Traders Locations: New York
CNN —Google will delete billions of data records as part of a settlement for a lawsuit that accused the tech giant of improperly tracking the web-browsing habits of users who thought they were browsing the internet privately. As part of the settlement, Google must delete “billions of data records” that reflect the private browsing activities of users in the class action suit, according to court documents filed Monday in San Francisco federal court. Google will also update its disclosure to inform users about what data it collects each time a user initiates a private browsing session. For the next five years, Google will also let private browsing users block third-party cookies as part of the settlement. “Moreover, the settlement requires Google to delete and remediate, in unprecedented scope and scale, the data it improperly collected in the past,” Boies added.
Persons: David Boies, ” Boies, José, ” “, Castañeda, Organizations: CNN, Google Locations: San Francisco federal
Bruch is one of the largest individual FTX creditors and has been tapped by the US Department of Justice to serve as one of nine on the FTX Creditors’ Committee, where he is working to recoup the funds lost by customers. DOJ-appointed creditor committees ordinarily consist of people and companies who hold the seven largest unsecured claims against the debtor (in this case, FTX), according to the agency. Before the Bell spoke with Bruch about Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, MyPrize and the future of crypto. I feel for all of the creditors and am doing everything I can to help recoup what was taken from us. I’ve worked at some of the largest crypto trading desks in the world and then also started trading my own book of capital and grew to become one of the largest individual crypto traders.
Persons: Sam Bankman, Fried, Zach Bruch, Bruch, MyPrize, Bell, Sam Bankman Fried, , , Sam Bankman Fried’s, Bitcoin, I’ve, Elisabeth Buchwald, Jerome Powell wasn’t, ” Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Evan Gershkovich, Evan Gershkovich’s, Radina Gigova, Anna Chernova, Antonina Favorskaya, Alexey Navalny, Favorskaya, Gershkovich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, US Department of Justice, , DOJ, Arrington Capital, Department of Justice, Federal, Commerce Department, San Francisco Fed, ” Fed, CNN, Wall Street Locations: New York, Russia, Yekaterinburg
But the Fed is prepared to ignore Wall Street’s hope for a rate cut in June if it feels the economy isn’t ready yet. That’s the message Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered on Friday. Powell wasn’t fretting about it though, saying that it was “pretty much in line with our expectations.”Why wait to cut then? “This is an economy that doesn’t feel like it’s suffering from the current level of rates,” Powell said. Like Powell, several Fed officials have conveyed they’re more concerned about cutting too soon than prolonging the status quo.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , , Powell, Powell wasn’t, there’s, ” Powell, Raphael Bostic, Powell’s, Donald Trump, he’s, Joe Biden —, Powell — Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, Republican Locations: New York
That’s because some Federal Reserve officials are reconsidering forecasts they made three months ago that called for three rate cuts this year. The stakes are high because there are consequences if the Fed cuts rates soon or if it leaves rates where they’ve been for the past eight months. First rate cut hinges on inflation dataIn February, Bostic told CNN that the first rate cut could come “sometime in the summertime.” That’s also Wall Street’s current expectation. He hasn’t specified — and is unlikely to signal — the number of rate cuts he believes are appropriate for this year. He has cheered inflation’s descent and said further improvement could open the door to rate cuts — if that actually bears out.
Persons: they’ve, Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, Bostic, That’s, Powell hasn’t, Price, Nam, ” David Page, Powell, Rather, Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, , we’ve, we’re, Goolsbee, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Index, AXA, Federal, , Harvard University, Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Fed, San Francisco Fed Locations: New York
Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.
Persons: Mary Daly, , ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, , , Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign
CNN —A high-profile lawsuit filed by Elon Musk’s X targeting hate speech researchers appeared to stumble on Thursday as a federal judge sounded a skeptical note on many of the lawsuit’s allegations, suggesting that the company formerly known as Twitter hasn’t done enough to establish its claims. The judge in the case signaled he may toss out X’s claims but appeared undecided on whether to let the company amend and refile the suit. X has also blamed CCDH’s reports, which showcase the prevalence of hate speech on the platform, for amplifying brand safety concerns and driving advertisers away from the site. “You could have brought a defamation case; you didn’t bring a defamation case,” Breyer told X attorney Jonathan Hawk. Elon Musk, owner of X, attends the Viva Technology conference at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre in Paris, France, June 16, 2023.
Persons: Elon Musk’s, X, CCDH, CCDH’s, Charles Breyer, ” Breyer, Jonathan Hawk, Elon Musk, Porte, Gonzalo Fuentes, Breyer, Hawk, , ” Hawk, I’ve, John Quinn Organizations: CNN, Center, Twitter, Nazi, Viva Technology, Porte de, CCDH Locations: San Francisco federal, Paris, France
Mortgage rates jumped up last week following the release of some hotter-than-expected inflation data. Once it looks clearer that inflation is coming down to the Fed's 2% target, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.12% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: Mary Daly, agilely, Daly, Price, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association for Business, San Francisco Fed, Index, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
Opinion | Can America Survive a Party of Saboteurs?
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Almost four years have passed since Congress approved and Donald Trump signed a huge relief bill designed to limit the financial hardship created by the Covid-19 pandemic. The CARES Act did its job. Furthermore, fears that generous aid during the pandemic would undermine America’s work ethic — that adults would leave the labor force and never come back — proved totally wrong. So the CARES Act was a huge policy success. But given recent political developments, I’ve found myself thinking: What would have happened if Democrats in 2020 had behaved like Republicans in 2024?
Persons: Donald Trump, , San Francisco Fed, I’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco, Age Labor
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
Dollar hovers near 6-week high on Fed view; yen edges up after BOJ
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Japanese yen , though, ticked higher as expectations rose for a stimulus exit as soon as March, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. "We have seen ECB (European Central Bank) officials push back on rate cut expectations as well, in line with the Federal Reserve." The dollar declined 0.17% to 148.085 yen, after swinging from as low as 146.99 and as high as 148.70 on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada meets on policy on Wednesday, and is expected to leave its key overnight rate unchanged at a 22-year high of 5%. Traders have unwound bullish positions built up in anticipation of U.S. approval of the country's first spot bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF).
Persons: Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, James Kniveton, Christine Lagarde's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, China's, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, San Francisco Fed, ECB, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Traders Locations: U.S
Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.
Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
The media has been more negative about the economy than the underlying data would suggest, a new study found. The tone of economy stories since 2018 doesn't match variables such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment. This may have fueled a disconnect between how the economy performs and how people think it's performing. Meanwhile, a December Bankrate study found that 59% of US adults feel the economy is in a recession. Still, many Americans feel better about their local economy than the national economy.
Persons: , us, Brookings, Will Stancil, Stancil Organizations: Service, Brookings, San, San Francisco Federal Reserve's, University of Michigan Consumer, University of Minnesota Locations: San Francisco Federal
A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct. 12, 2022, by one commonly used definition. By that definition, the bear market that began when the S&P 500 hit its previous record on Jan. 3, 2022 was not particularly painful. The S&P 500 closed down 25.4% at its lowest point, making this the fourth shallowest bear market experienced by the index since 1928, according to data from Yardeni Research. Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 16% in the three-month period leading up to a bull market. By contrast, the S&P 500 has logged average gains of just 0.2% and 2.0%, in the one-month and three-month period after a bull market is confirmed.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, San Francisco Fed, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: St, REUTERS, Yardeni Research, Reuters, San Francisco, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
While the Dow rose to 35,725.11 points, crossing its intraday high of 35,679.13 points hit in August, all three main indexes were on course for their strongest November since 2020. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) were also poised for their biggest monthly percentage gain since July 2022, on signs of cooling price pressures. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - showed inflation remained unchanged in October on a monthly basis, against economists' projections of a 0.1% increase. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, in line with estimates. But most megacap stocks edged lower, with Tesla (TSLA.O) down 1.4% and leading declines, keeping the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.SPX) under pressure.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Salesforce, Dow Jones, Dow, Anthony Saglimbene, Mary Daly, John Williams, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Bank of New York, Dow Jones, Inc, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Troy , Michigan, Bengaluru
A Wells Fargo logo is seen in New York City, U.S. January 10, 2017. And they often work unpaid overtime because of chronic understaffing at Wells Fargo branches, according to the lawsuit. Wells Fargo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Michael Scimone, a lawyer for Perez, said Wells Fargo has consistently classified workers as exempt from overtime pay even though they are not managers and lack any decision-making authority. “Companies like Wells Fargo should know better than to withhold overtime pay from workers like Ms. Perez," Scimone said in a statement.
Persons: Stephanie Keith, Wells, Wells Fargo, Sabrina Perez, Perez, Michael Scimone, Scimone, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics . Wells Fargo, Daniel Wiessner, Alexia Garamfalvi, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Fargo & Co, Senior, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics ., Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco, Wells Fargo, Albuquerque , New Mexico, Wells, Albuquerque, Alaska, Albany , New York
Fresh data shows price pressures are easing and the labor market is gradually cooling, evidence that the slowdown the Fed has tried to engineer with its rate hikes to date is underway. Still, the unemployment rate at last read was 3.9%, only a few tenths of a percentage point above where it was when the Fed first began raising rates in March 2022. UNCERTAIN PATHTraders have been betting heavily that the Fed will keep its overnight benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the next several months. "I'm not losing too much sleep" over the market's view "because there's a lot of uncertainty about the future path of policy," Williams said. "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now," Daly said.
Persons: John Williams, Williams, Janet Yellen, I'm, Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Oscar Munoz, Dan Burns, Michael S, Howard Schneider, David Lawder, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed Bank, Fed, U.S, Treasury, PATH Traders, San Francisco Fed, Spelman College, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, New, Atlanta
The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.
Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, , Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S
Prospective students tour the University of California, Berkeley campus before beginning of the new semester, in Berkeley, California, U.S., June 8, 2023. The complaint also said "no fewer" than 23 law school groups have anti-Jewish policies. Law school dean Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law specialist, said the complaint painted a "stunningly inaccurate" picture of the school. The law school, UC Berkeley Chancellor Carol Christ, the University of California system and its President Michael Drake are among the other defendants. Other plaintiffs include the Brandeis Center's Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education, a nationwide group whose members include UC Berkeley staff and students.
Persons: Carlos Barria, Louis, Erwin Chemerinsky, UC Berkeley Chancellor Carol Christ, Michael Drake, Hitler, Louis D, Jonathan Stempel, Richard Chang Organizations: University of California, REUTERS, Louis D, Brandeis Center, UC Berkeley's, UC Berkeley, UC Berkeley Chancellor, Brandeis Center's, Fairness, UC, New York University, NYU, Regents, Court, Northern District of, Thomson Locations: Berkeley, Berkeley , California, U.S, Israel, San Francisco federal, Northern District, Northern District of California, New York
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