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The S & P 500 returned 13% annually the last 10 years, above the long-term average of 11%, according to Goldman. Goldman's bearish long-term forecast comes just as the S & P 500 has entered the third year of a bull market, garnering a 27% annual total return the last two years. "The current high level of equity valuations is a key reason our 10-year forward return forecast sits at the lower end of the historical distribution," stated the note. The firm said the equal-weight S & P 500 would produce higher returns than the regular benchmark because of the concentration risk. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)F tracks an equally distributed version of the index.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Goldman's Organizations: Nvidia
The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.
Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S
Iger's CEO contract currently runs until Dec. 31, 2026. Gorman joined Disney's board earlier this year and in August was named the lead of Disney's succession planning committee, which is tasked with finding Iger's replacement. In Nelson Peltz's unsuccessful proxy fight earlier this year, the activist investor took issue with how Disney's board previously handled succession. The firm's new CEO, Ted Pick, has "reaped some of the great success of Gorman," Jim added. Morgan Stanley shares soared to all-time highs last week after it reported top and bottom-line beats for its third quarter .
Persons: Bob Iger, James Gorman, Morgan Stanley, Mark Parker, Disney, Gorman, Iger, Bob Chapek, Nelson Peltz's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Ted Pick, Gary Hershorn Organizations: Disney, Nike, Wall, DIS, Club, CNBC, Hulu, ESPN, Magic, Walt Disney World, Corbis, Getty Locations: Orlando , Florida
Luxury stocks may be a risky China stimulus bet
  + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
A post-pandemic spending surge led to luxury stocks such as LVMH to reach all-time highs in early 2023, but that soon changed. We believe improved confidence and sentiment is required to reach even our flat year-over-year Chinese luxury growth forecast for 2025," Wallace noted. Luxury stocks are feeling the pressure — year to date, U.S.-traded shares of major players LVMH and Kering are down about 17% and 41%, respectively. Analysts and investors are mixed as to whether the Chinese stimulus measures can revive luxury spending growth among consumers — and whether it will create a meaningful tailwind for luxury companies. Whether the luxury sector can continue growing at the same levels without as much Chinese consumer spending remains in question.
Persons: — stoking, Ben Harburg, Morgan Stanley, Ashley Wallace, Wallace, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Moncler, Hermes, Prada, Richemont, LVMUY CFRUY, , Edouard Aubin, Sauron, Harburg, LVMH's Guiony, we've Organizations: Alpha, Bank of America, of America, Consumers Locations: China, Covid, 3Q24, U.S, LVMH
Earnings next week will be key to where stocks head from here. While roughly one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reported over the past week, about 20% of the broader index plans to report next week. He noted that the S & P 500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 , it's the first such streak going back to December 2023. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S & P 500 slightly outpaced the market-cap weighted benchmark this week, a bullish signal for sectors such as health care.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, it's, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, Russell, Nelson Yu, Harker Organizations: U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Lockheed, GE Aerospace, Business Machines, General Motors, Verizon Communications, United Parcel Services, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Philadelphia Reserve, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Locations: Independence, Philadelphia, . Kansas
Nerad + Deppe Wealth Management's Steve Deppe found 12 other examples since 1950 when the S & P 500 ended October with a six-month trailing return above 10%. The six-month trailing return on the S & P 500 is currently north of 15%. On average, the S & P 500 gained 7.4% in November and December in all those other instances. "In 2024, it's very easy to want to take the money and run," Deppe told CNBC Pro from his office in La Jolla, California. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date Deppe currently expects the S & P 500 will finish 2024 above 6,000.
Persons: Steve Deppe, Harry Truman, Deppe, We've, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro Locations: La Jolla , California
The stock market could face a 7% correction by mid-November, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a 7% correction by mid-November, according to technical analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat. AdvertisementNewton is monitoring the 5,900 level on the S&P 500 as potential resistance for the index. The S&P 500 traded at around 5,850 on Friday. "This market has seemingly 'dodged a bullet' thus far during one of the historically worst periods during most election years.
Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, , Mark Newton of, Newton, Tom Lee's Organizations: Investor, Service, Equity, Technology, RSI Locations: Newton, Mark Newton of Fundstrat
Stocks are starting to price in a Trump victory, possibly even a Republican sweep, according to JPMorgan. Take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average , which recently cleared the 43,000 milestone for the first time ever, or the S & P 500 , which surpassed 5,800. Meanwhile, U.S. banks, which are expected to face less regulatory scrutiny from Trump than under the Biden administration, have rallied. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), has advanced 5.9% this month alone, and financials are the top-performing S & P 500 sector this month. KRE 1M mountain SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF over the past month.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Biden, Trump, Panigirtzoglou, bitcoin Organizations: Republican, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Trump, Regional Banking, U.S, Treasury, UST, flattish, White Locations: U.S, London, flattish U.S, DXY
With the Federal Reserve now cutting interest rates, investors are looking for stocks that can be super-charged by lower borrowing costs. Small and medium-sized companies tend to be the most closely affected by the direction of the economy and rates. Outflows were seen solely in large caps; small and mid-caps saw inflows." If money does keep flowing into small caps, will it come at the expense of large caps? .SPX mountain 2022-10-01 S & P 500 since Oct. 1, 2022 That said, if the move into the smaller caps stocks continues, we may start to see more competition for capital.
Persons: Russell, that's, it's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Morgan Stanley's, We're, Canaccord Genuity, pare, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Federal Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Nvidia, CNBC, Blackwell, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Devices, Broadcom, Apple Intelligence, Apple, Microsoft, Presidential, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S
In this article KBE.IXIC.SPX.DJIASML-NLDAMZN.FTSEMS Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York, US, on Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Morgan Stanley , for one, reported third-quarter figures that surpassed earnings and revenue estimates. The bank's profit jumped 32% from a year ago, far outstripping the LSEG estimate and topping several other big banks' income growth. The investment banking business was a main source of profit for Morgan Stanley.
Persons: DJI ASML, Morgan Stanley, Michael Nagle, Piper Sandler, – CNBC's Hugh Son, Alex Harring, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, P Bank ETF, UBS, U.S . Labor Department Locations: New York, Wall
A number of catalysts are set to drive shares of PNC Financial higher, according to Bank of America. The Pittsburgh-based regional bank was reiterated as a buy and its price target raised to $211 from $204, implying more than 9% upside from Tuesday's close, the Wall Street investment bank said. Stepped up "new loan commitments provide some optimism around the potential for a pickup in loan growth heading into 2025," the 11-page report said. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 15 have a strong buy or buy rating, while seven are neutral. On Tuesday, PNC rose about 2% thanks to the regional bank's quarterly results topping Wall Street estimates .
Persons: That's, Ebrahim Poonawala, Mgmt, Poonawala Organizations: PNC Financial, Bank of America, Wall, PNC, Wall Street Locations: The Pittsburgh, SPX, Texas
The S & P 500 continues to make new highs, and volatility continues to decline. First, the S & P 500 has logged just two absolute 1% moves since Sept. 19, which is nearly a month's worth of trading. In fact, 114 S & P 500 stocks made new 52-week highs on Tuesday, which was the first time we've had over 100 since 7/16/24. With the day's opening and close both being higher and lower than the prior session's, this created a bearish engulfing pattern. The bottom line is that the S & P 500 and dozens of its holdings have built up substantial cushions by strongly coming back from the August lows.
Persons: we've Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineDespite markets falling Tuesday, there's still plenty to like about their current state. Weighed down by ASML's 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: DJI, Spencer Platt, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: AMD, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: U.S, Beijing
The Stock Trader's Almanac issued a seasonal buy signal for equities, saying investors who sold in May can start to come back to the market now as the calendar nears what are historically the best six months of the year. The same is true of the S & P 500 . In the best six months, the S & P 500 gained 3,019 points, while rising 1,133 points in the worst six. "And beginning on the first trading day of April we prepare to exit these seasonal positions as soon as the market falters." The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the 43,000 milestone on Monday, while the S & P 500 recently crossed the 5,800 level for the first time.
Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cambodia
Bull markets tend to sputter in year three
  + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
.SPX mountain 2022-10-12 The S & P 500 has gained more than 60% during this bull market. However, prior bull markets have shown a tendency to lose a little steam in their third year. Bank of America research showed that 10 prior bull markets for the S & P 500 had an average return of -2% in months 25 to 36. Another thing to keep in mind is that even positive third years for bull markets tend to be bumpy. Of course, a slump for the S & P 500 could be an opportunity for small-cap stocks to catch up .
Persons: Ritesh Samadhiya, Sam Stovall, Russell Organizations: Bank of America
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.
Persons: Lockheed Martin, Katie Stockton Organizations: Boeing, Aerospace, Defense, U.S . Aerospace, Defense ETF, ITA, GE Aerospace, Lockheed, RTX Corp, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: U.S, uptrends
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Monday: TD Cowen reiterates Nvidia as buy TD said Nvidia remains a top pick at the firm. Goldman Sachs upgrades Ibotta to buy from neutral Goldman Sachs reiterates Alphabet as buy Goldman lowered its price target on the stock to $208 per share from $217 citing a slew of headwinds for Alphabet. Wells Fargo upgrades Flutter to overweight from equal weight Wells says investors should buy the dip in shares of the gambling company. Goldman Sachs downgrades AutoZone to sell from buy Goldman downgraded the auto parts retailer due to "muted growth." Goldman Sachs upgrades Ibotta to buy from neutral Goldman says it likes the growth opportunity for the mobile tech company.
Persons: TD Cowen, Mizuho, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Wells, Truist, Morgan Stanley, Caterpillar, Piper Sandler, Tesla, Piper, wouldn't, it's, Baird, KeyCorp, Jefferies, it's bullish, Stock, GOOS, AppLovin, Oppenheimer Organizations: Nvidia, NVIDIA, Away Tech, Mizuho, AMD, Broadcom, UBS, Partners, Surgery Partners, Apple, VF Corp, Vans, UW, Walmart Locations: Wells Fargo, China
Frustrated small cap investors are turning to companies with profits as the bull market in big cap stocks starts its third year. Not so with the small-cap Russell 2000 : it didn't bottom until October 2023, and is only 35% off the low, still 9% shy of its historic high in November 2021. Including 2024, the S & P 500 has outperformed the small-cap Russell 2000 in 12 of the past 15 years. A similar fund that also tracks the S & P SmallCap 600 Index is the iShares Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR). Other small cap funds with a profitability tilt have also seen strong inflows recently, including the Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF (DFAS) and the Avantis Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV).
Persons: Russell, hasn't, it's, SPSM, Rob Harvey, Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon Organizations: Russell, Health Technology, Technology Services, Technology, Street Global Advisors, U.S, Value, Dimensional Funds, BNY
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday marked the two-year anniversary of the current bull market with an ode to Nvidia and the U.S. semiconductor industry. "We have a remarkable semiconductor rally, and it is at the heart of this market," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." Broadcom helps tech heavyweights, most notably Alphabet-owned Google , design specialty AI chips and also provides other products used inside data centers. NVDA .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 Nvidia's stock performance compared with the S & P 500 during the two-year bull market, which began on Oct. 12, 2022. "Amazon is the company that Jensen kept referencing to me as a great friend," said Cramer, whose Trust also owns Amazon stock.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Dell, Jensen Huang, Jensen Organizations: Nvidia, Micro Computer, Broadcom, Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Micro, Arista Networks, Dell Technologies, Arista, Facebook, Meta, Amazon Web Locations: U.S, Cramer's
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Sunday as investors waited to assess whether the next batch of key corporate earnings could power the market to more records. S&P 500 index futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed above 5,800 for the first time, while the blue-chip Dow also reached an all-time high. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 22% this year, excluding reinvested dividends. Treasury yields have risen lately too, with the benchmark 10-year note yield, used to calculate everything from mortgages to auto loans, topping 4.1% last week.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Dow, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Adam Crisafulli Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Columbus, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Johnson, United Airlines, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, Federal, Vital, Treasury Locations: New York City
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. But Bostic acknowledged it's important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they're just "janky," as Bostic put it.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: San Rafael , California
And, with earnings season set to ramp up, that could mean further gains. Already, on Friday, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo were rallying in midday trading after reporting their latest results this week, an auspicious start to the earnings season. A strong earnings season Earnings results next week will be dominated by reports from the banking sector, giving investors further insight into the health of the capital markets as well as the consumer. Several regional banks are also set to announce how they did in the most recent quarter as well, such as PNC Financial Services Group and Citizens Financial Group. Even so, investors are optimistic about the outlook for corporate profits this earnings season, especially with expectations having come down.
Persons: what's, Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Charlie Ashley, Ashley, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ross Mayfield, Catalyst's Ashley, Baird's Mayfield, Mayfield, Charles Schwab, Huntington Bancshares Organizations: Dow Jones, Tech, Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase, Traders, Federal Reserve, Catalyst Funds, Nasdaq, Ashley . Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group, Citizens Financial Group, Private Wealth Management, Treasury, Columbus, Columbus Day, Index, United Airlines, Hunt Transport Services, Citigroup, State, Goldman Sachs Group, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Johnson, Bank of America, PNC Financial Services, UnitedHealth, Price, PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Discover Financial Services, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, U.S . Bancorp, Financial Group, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Netflix, T Bank Corp, Elevance, Truist, Blackstone, Housing, Schlumberger, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, American Express Locations: Ashley, bullish, Prologis, NAHB
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. "This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November," said Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: AMD, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: Pike, Seattle , Washington, US
Valerie Plesch | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Sentiment in markets, it seems, was buoyed by encouraging comments from the Fed. The Fed, in other words, is keeping a close eye on the economy and wants to make sure it maintains its smooth landing. It's as if Stephen Sondheim's musical "Into the woods to get the money," markets are merrily singing.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Gregory Daco, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Suttmeier, Philip Jefferson reemphasized, we're, Mike Bailey, Stephen Sondheim's, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Brent, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Micro Computer, Fed, FBB Capital Partners Locations: USA, Washington, Florida, U.S, Israel
The S & P 500 hit new highs on Wednesday, but there's more to the story that investors need to be mindful of. A lack of breadth by this measure indicates the S & P 500 is susceptible to a correction, he said. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date Still, Wednesday's return to all-time highs marks a positive development amid what has been a choppy trading month. With the latest moves, the S & P 500 is now tracking to end 2024 higher by more than 21%. The average year-end price target for the S & P 500 implies the index will decline around 3% from where it closed Wednesday, according to CNBC Pro's subscriber-exclusive survey.
Persons: Chris Verrone, Verrone, Wednesday's Organizations: Investment, CNBC
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