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☆ Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Employment growth eased in June, taking some steam out of what had been a stunningly strong labor market. A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose to 6.9%, the highest since August 2022. "This is a strong labor market where demand for higher paying jobs is clearly the trend," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The June report "suggests labor market conditions are finally beginning to ease more markedly," wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow, downwardly, payrolls, Seema Shah, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Asset Management, ADP, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, RSM, Capital Economics

☆ Shah: The narrative the Fed will continue tightening will hit markets in the second half of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: The narrative the Fed will continue tightening will hit markets in the second half of the yearSeema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses whether the markets can continue to plow higher amid the Fed's continued hawkish mindset, and which sectors may be impacted most.

Persons: Seema Shah Organizations: Shah, Asset Management

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - World stocks rose to a two-week peak on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei closing at its highest level in 33 years, drawing support from signs that cooling inflation might temper central banks' appetite to further hike rates. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.25% to its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index also hit a two-week peak (.STOXX). Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. Key U.S. data this week include closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

Persons: Seema Shah, Jan von Gerich, May's, Michael Feroli, Brent, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, Apple, Frankfurt, Bank of, Key, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, London, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sydney

☆ VIEW Bank of England delivers hefty rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders scrambled to price in a peak to UK rates of as much 6% and its implications for the risk of recession, and rate-sensitive stocks like banks and homebuilders slid. MONEY MARKETS: UK 2-year gilts dropped sharply, then rose after the decision but were last unchanged at 5.04%. But even if the bank hasn't offered up any new guidance, the rate decision itself is revealing. The UK has the unenviable title of highest core inflation rate in the G7, and by quite some margin. "Having said that, their policy is now more data dependent, the bank had to deliver a rate increase.

Persons: homebuilders, Sterling, gilts, JAMIE NIVEN, JAMES SMITH, hasn’t, hasn't, BoE, SEEMA SHAH, CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Bailey, PAUL OBERSCHNEIDER, BOE, ” ROBERT JEFFREE, GARY SMITH, EVELYN, Yoruk Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Traders, CANDRIAM, ING, LONDON, IG GROUP, Treasury, EMEA, Thomson

☆ The Federal Reserve paused its interest-rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve announced it's pausing interest-rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting. This comes after 10 consecutive interest-rate increases in 15 months. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it's holding interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, putting a pause on the central bank's 10 consecutive increases in 15 months. "Without a meaningful downside surprise in both jobs and inflation, a final interest-rate hike remains in the cards for July." Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, credit conditions tightened, in part pushing the Fed to skip this month's rate hike amid a lending pullback.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Seema Shah, Shah, Thomas Simons, Simons, Marta Norton, Kathy Gramling, Gramling, Norton, there's, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Market, Fed, Asset Management, Jefferies, Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Morningstar Wealth's America, EY, Consumer, Morningstar Wealth, Norton

☆ Premarket stocks: Markets may be overly optimistic about the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Economists say that could mean more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are coming, but investors appear sanguine. That makes it more difficult for the data-dependent Federal Reserve to justify a pause to interest rate hikes at its June meeting. It has been very strange and certainly our own expectations were that the labor market would deteriorate more than it has. So you have a strong consumer and strong labor market essentially supporting each other for the time being. “That level is more consistent with a 2% growth economy and a 2% inflation economy, not a 4% inflation level economy,” Moynihan added.

Persons: CME’s FedWatch, Bell, Seema Shah, Powell, It’s, there’s, it’s, Brian Moynihan, “, ”, Moynihan, ” Moynihan, Brent, Mark Thompson, Michelle Toh, ” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Federal, Reserve, Asset Management, Fed, Bank of America, CBS, Reuters Locations: New York, United States, Europe, Asia, Americas, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, China, Saudi

☆ Shah: The broad fixed income market, including investment-grade bonds, is attractive
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: The broad fixed income market, including investment-grade bonds, is attractiveSeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses how the debt ceiling deal is impacting the markets.

☆ Analysis: How to characterize the American economy — from broken to just bizarre
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The US economy is going from broken to bizarre. Covid crashed the American economy three years ago with no playbook for the wild recovery that would follow. And yet, the US economy today is growing, the job market is strong, and the consumer is still spending. The economy has added an astonishing 1.2 million jobs this year and the jobless rate matches the lowest since 1969. Goldman Sachs pegs recession odds at 35% and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said the economy could still skirt a recession.

☆ Shah: Stability within fixed income should outperform even amid macro uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: Stability within fixed income should outperform even amid macro uncertaintySeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses how to position ahead of the busiest week of earnings season.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L) told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Man Group's Luke Ellis told delegates he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don't exist in 12-24 months," Ellis said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Many hedge funds have made money from the banking sector volatility in recent days by betting against banks. Central banks globally have responded to the turmoil with coordinated measures to ensure the flow of cash between banks around the world.

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown put the Fed in a bind
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In prior years, the Fed was able to respond “unswervingly” to financial risks by loosening policy without worrying about price stability, he said. The reputation play: The question isn’t about what the Fed should do, it’s about what the Fed will do, said Daco. The central bank has the tools if needed to respond to a liquidity crisis “but this is not what we are seeing,” she told reporters on Thursday. Prior to the current stress in the banking sector, Fed officials were hinting that they would hike rates by half a point. “Every central bank tightening cycle in history has induced some sort of financial strains,” she wrote Thursday.

☆ Goldman Sachs just told us the banking crisis makes it more pessimistic about the economy - and other recession signals are blaring too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The bank crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank last Friday continues to unfold with what feels like to-the-minute developments. First Republic Bank branch on Park Avenue in New York City. In light of the bank runs, bank failures, and bank stock volatility, those odds are now at 35%, strategists said Thursday, citing "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank stress. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual in 2008. She explained why you should be prepared for more interest-rate volatility as fears of a financial crisis rise.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.

☆ The new era of investing is here and stocks will no longer be the key player, a top global strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I'm eager to share today's conversation with a top strategist about changes to the current investing landscape — but first I have a question. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Courtesy of Principal Asset ManagementSeema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema Shah: The key part of it is that we're not in an era of unlimited central bank liquidity. Historically, in a period of low economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation, it outperforms global fixed income and global equities, almost without exception.

☆ Why the 2023 stock market rally may be over already
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —So much for that big stock market comeback this year. At one point in mid-January, the average of 30 blue chips was up nearly 4% in 2023. It’s harder to justify more expensive valuations for the market in an environment where higher interest rates will likely eat into profits. He speculated that if inflation doesn’t cool off soon, the Fed may need to keep raising rates all the way up to 6%. “If there is a recession, profits will likely fall sharply.”Still, Kelly is cautiously optimistic that 2024 and beyond will be better years for earnings, and therefore stocks.

☆ 'The market has gone too far:' Chief global strategist predicts when the Fed will cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should not expect a cut in interest rates until 2024 thanks to a strong U.S. economy and the potential for a delayed recession, according to the chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. In fact, the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer is the "scenario that we're looking at now," Shah told CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum. The employment picture started 2023 on a stunningly strong note , with nonfarm payrolls posting their biggest gain since July 2022 despite a rapid increase in interest rates last year. 'Absolutely no cuts this year' When asked when investors should expect a cut in interest rates, Shah responded that it wouldn't be until 2024. Goldman Sachs expects interest rates to hit 5.38% by the second quarter, with the first cut to 5.13% expected in the first three months of next year.

☆ Chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors predicts when the Fed will cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChief global strategist at Principal Global Investors predicts when the Fed will cut ratesInvestors should not expect a cut in interest rates until 2024 because of a strong U.S. economy and the potential for a delayed recession, according to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors.

New York CNN —Thursday afternoon will round out what has so far been a sobering earnings season for the Big Tech giants. Alphabet’s revenue will likely remain flat from last year and Amazon’s sales are expected to grow just shy of 6% year-over-year. All three companies’ profits are expected to fall from the year-ago quarter, with Amazon set to suffer the steepest drop with a decline of 40.6%. Then came the press conference, which led to a steep divergence between what the Fed thinks and what the Wall Street thinks. A cautionary tale: In mid-November, Ticketmaster’s site overloaded when fans tried to purchase pre-sale tickets for Taylor Swift’s upcoming tour.

☆ Financial assets are fighting the Fed and winning, John Hancock's Emily Roland
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancial assets are fighting the Fed and winning, John Hancock's Emily RolandSeema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, and Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what they expect from Jerome Powell's upcoming comments and how the market will respond.

☆ Stock sentiment is positive despite lousy headlines
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —It’s only early January, but so far in 2023 the pendulum on Wall Street has swung (to paraphrase Billy Joel) from sadness to euphoria. But why is there such optimism on Wall Street all of a sudden? But it also showed the pace of job growth is slowing — and that could be a precursor to an eventual recession. But Wall Street is a funny place: Good news is often viewed as a bad sign, and vice versa. As long as the Fed can get inflation under control, investors might not be too concerned by a recession anyway.

☆ The UK will perform the worst out of the major developed economies in 2023, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK will perform the worst out of the major developed economies in 2023, strategist saysChief Strategist at Principal Global Investors Seema Shah expects a tough start to 2023 for the U.K. as household savings drop and the impacts of rate hikes are felt.

☆ Treasury yields fall slightly as markets digest Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Treasury yields were slightly lower in the early hours of Thursday, as markets digested the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike and signals that it will continue lifting rates to rein in inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 2 basis points at 3.4790%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped by a similar amount to 3.5170%. The Fed's hike on Wednesday marked a slowdown from the previous four increases of 75 basis points. It also projected that the "terminal rate" will rise to 5.1% before the end of the hiking cycle. Auctions will be held on Thursday for $45 billion each of 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills.

Blackstone (BX.N) limited withdrawals from its $69 billion unlisted REIT on Thursday after redemption requests hit pre-set limits amid investor concerns it was slow to adjust valuations as interest rate surged, a source close to the fund said. The development is yet another reminder of the risks facing not just sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates but also broader financial markets, which have rallied sharply on hopes that interest rate hikes will slow. "REITS had a fantastic performance for a couple of months but when you have that outperformance, investors don't react to traditional fundamental signals such as rising rates," she said. But in recent weeks expectations have risen that the Fed will "pivot" from aggressive tightening, prompting investors to price in lower peak interest rates. Blackstone has reported a 9.3% year-to-date net return for the REIT, while the publicly traded Dow Jones U.S.

☆ US stocks finish mixed amid fears of more Fed hawkishness after hot jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow reversed higher as the Fed is still largely expected to slow its pace of rate hikes. But the hot jobs data could push the Fed to tack on more rate hikes in early 2023, some analysts say. JPMorgan Asset Management chief strategist David Kelly said the jobs report was likely distorted, and there's still plenty of room for the Fed to taper rate hikes and pause in 2023. Principal Asset Management chief strategist Seema Shah said the jobs report could push the Fed to raise rates above 5%. "This report doesn't mean the risks of the Fed raising rates to 6% are back on the table.

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