Extreme backwardation implied traders expected the balance to remain tight, with a further drawdown of already depleted inventories, and more upward pressure on oil prices.
In late November, after consultations with traders, the U.S. Treasury published regulations signalling a relatively relaxed approach to enforcement (“Guidance on implementation of price cap policy”, OFAC, Nov. 22).
Following last-minute discussions, on Dec. 2 the cap was set at $60, with a commitment to review it by mid- January 2023 and every two months thereafter (“G7 agrees oil price cap”, European Commission, Dec. 3).
SETTING THE PRICE CAP LEVELIn setting a price cap for Russia’s crude and products, U.S. and EU officials have been confronted by a menu of policy options and other considerations.
Related columns:- Investors dumped Brent in anticipation of relaxed oil price cap (Reuters, Dec. 5)- Global recession a bigger risk to Russia’s oil revenue than price cap (Reuters, Nov. 11)- Recession would make tough oil sanctions on Russia more likely (Reuters, July 14)- Oil market confronts U.S. and EU policymakers with unpalatable choices (Reuters, June 29)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.