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A gentle downtrend in foreign direct investment gave way to a steep drop last quarter and inflows to China slammed to their lowest since records began 25 years ago, raising the prospect that the long-term trend is turning. Sources have told Reuters the Biden administration is likely to adopt new outbound investment restrictions on China in the coming weeks. Japan, the U.S. and Europe have already restricted the sale of high-tech chipmaking tools to Chinese companies while China has hit back by throttling exports of raw materials. To be sure, investment flows often fluctuate and many firms aren't leaving China completely or aren't leaving at all. "A lot of our clients are worried about their exposure to China as a sole country of supply."

Persons: Carlos Barria, Deng Xiaoping, Logan Wright, Biden, John Ramig, Buchalter, Daniel Seeff, Cardigan, Chi Lo, Lee Smith, Baker Donelson, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Winni Zhou, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Corporate, China Markets, China's, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Investors, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Ministry of Commerce, Management, Thomson Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, SHANGHAI, SYDNEY, China, Japan, U.S, Europe, Haining, Peru, Hong Kong, Baker, Singapore

☆ China is telling economists not to talk about deflation or faltering growth, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Beijing is telling economists not to talk about deflation or falling foreign investment, per the FT.Policymakers are mulling how to revive growth but yet to announce a "big bang" stimulus package. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Loading Something is loading. Economists, brokerage analysts, and researchers all told the publication that regulators, their employers, or local media had warned them not to talk about deflation, slumping foreign investment, and faltering growth, the newspaper reported. In July alone, second-quarter growth came in well below economists' expectations, consumer price inflation fell to 0%, and youth unemployment skyrocketed to 21%.

Persons: Xi, – Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Authorities Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, China

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. BEIJING'S DILEMMALocal government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion), or 76% of economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large. From 2015 to 2018, local governments issued some 12 trillion yuan of bonds to swap for off-balance sheet debt. For the local debt problem to stop re-occuring policymakers need to implement profound changes to how the economy works.

Persons: Florence Lo, China's, Guo Tianyong, Logan Wright, ”, Tao Wang, Guo, Rhodium's Wright, Marius Zaharia Organizations: REUTERS, Beijing, Communist Party, Central University of Finance, Economics, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Local, UBS, BBVA, Thomson Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, “, China, Lincoln

"China is not trying to supplant the IMF," said Matthew Mingey, a senior analyst with Rhodium Group. "When China has allowed these swap lines to be tapped, in many cases it's to unlock an IMF bailout or ensure an IMF programme stays on track." In turn, China is a major customer for Argentina's soy, corn and poultry exports. "China has every incentive to tightly manage Argentine drawings under the swap lines as the risks are very high." The swap line that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) signed in 2009 with Buenos Aires was the first agreed with a Latin American country.

Persons: Matthew Mingey, Buenos, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Sergio Massa, Martin Castellano, Alejandro Werner, Werner, Mingey, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Jorge Otaola, Joe Cash, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, World Bank, TAG, People's Bank of China, Buenos Aires, Economy, Institute of International Finance, Relations, Georgetown Americas Institute, Western Hemisphere Department, Thomson Locations: China, Argentina, Beijing, Washington, Latin America, Buenos Aires, U.S, Buenos, American, United States, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Ukraine

BEIJING, July 24 (Reuters) - China is struggling to revive foreign investment in its financially battered cities and provinces as foreign firms remain wary of political risks and new incentives fall far short of sweeteners once used to attract overseas money. With their coffers depleted after an economically bruising pandemic and property crisis, local authorities have been racing to find new revenue sources, with foreign investment particularly coveted. He cited five meetings between their London office and delegations from Chinese local governments in late June. PART OF THE SYSTEMLocal authorities carry out a delicate balancing act when courting foreign investment and dealing with critical questions about Xi's security policies. "As far as the macro situation is concerned, local governments can't do anything to reassure foreign investors.

Persons: Premier Li Qiang, Kiran Patel, Xi Jinping's, Noah Fraser, it's, Li Qiang, Agatha Kratz, Joe Cash, Brenda Goh, Sam Holmes Organizations: Premier, China - Britain Business Council, China's Ministry of Commerce, Canada China Business Council, Communist Party, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Sichuan, Chaozhou, Shanghai

ReutersBEIJING – International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January. Here are some winners to watch The U.S. investment bank most recently cut its China GDP forecast in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously. In June, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 5.6%, up from 4.3% previously. The International Monetary Fund in April raised its forecast for China's GDP to 5.2%, up from 4.4% previously. Among the six investment firms CNBC looked at, the highest China GDP forecast so far this year was JPMorgan's 6.4% figure — when the bank adjusted for the second time in April alone.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Logan Wright, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi Organizations: Reuters, Reuters BEIJING – International, JPMorgan, CNBC, Citi, Beijing, Citi's, UBS, National Bureau, Statistics, U.S, Chinese Communist Party . Investment, Bank, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Beijing, New York

☆ China is telling anyone who'll listen it's open for business again – but its economy has a Xi Jinping problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China is signaling to the rest of the world that it's open for business again. Both Elon Musk and Janet Yellen have made trips to Beijing recently. But less money is flowing into the country – with foreign investors likely alienated by Xi Jinping's authoritarianism. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Spooked investors responded by dumping Chinese stocks in a $6 trillion blowout, while the onshore Chinese yuan dropped against the US dollar.

Persons: Elon Musk, Janet Yellen, Xi, Li Qiang, John Kerry, Mark Mobius, he'd Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Tesla, Communist Party, Bain, Co, Big Tech Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Silicon, Tianjin, Shanghai, West

BEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - The value of Chinese debt relief decreased by over 50% between 2021 and 2022, a report from Rhodium Group showed, with Angola alone receiving two thirds of deferrals despite China backing multilateral efforts to standardise support for poor countries. As the world's largest bilateral creditor, China is central to talks on making tangible progress in providing debt relief to emerging and frontier markets through the Group of 20-led "Common Framework" as well as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). And although debtor countries did secure a large volume of deferrals in 2021 - the year the World Bank's Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) morphed into the G20's Common Framework - that fails to explain fully the sharp drop in the value of Chinese debt relief since. China's most visible action on debt relief was writing off zero-interest loans, the report added, while warning that fewer such loans will be available for China to write off in the coming years. Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Joe Cash, Chizu Organizations: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Angola, deferrals, China, Pakistan, Kenya, Republic of Congo, Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana

☆ China stares hard at its own lost decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has good reason to hold back on unleashing big stimulus. The central bank has made small cuts to interest rates as everything from credit growth to exports disappoint. For President Xi Jinping, it’s a hard choice between short term gains and his long-term ambition to rebalance the economy. Even if it does issue such bonds, funds may be indirectly used to help poorer provinces repay debt. The Chinese government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after missing its 2022 goal.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, National Institution for Finance, Development, Wall Street, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing

Hope but few detailsWorries about China’s economic recovery sent stocks and U.S. futures lower on Tuesday morning, despite a promising meeting on Monday between the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Beijing. The discussions raised hopes that the world’s two biggest economies might stabilize relations, but the market reaction points at the deeper challenges for policymakers and business. There was no agreement or detail on the most contentious issues: restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technologies; accusations that the U.S. and its allies want to contain Beijing’s ambitions; Taiwan; the war in Ukraine. “Distrust remains high,” said Noah Barkin, a specialist on China relations at the research firm Rhodium Group. “For international investors, this is not enough to trigger any sort of rethink with regard to the Chinese market.” The Biden administration, he said, would continue screening strategic investments into China and Beijing showed no signs of easing pressure on foreign firms operating in the country.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Xi, Biden, Blinken, ”, Noah Barkin Organizations: “ Locations: Beijing, California, Taiwan, Ukraine, China

☆ The U.S. and China are still largely talking past each other, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. and China are still largely talking past each other, analyst saysReva Goujon, director of Rhodium Group, discusses what might be on the agenda ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Beijing and says "expectations are low."

Persons: Reva Goujon, Antony Blinken's Locations: China, Beijing

REUTERS/Fabrizio BenschSummarySummary Companies Germany unveils first ever National Security StrategyDocument reflects growing focus on security over economyContains strong criticism of China but does not mention TaiwanImplementation could be hampered by lack of Security CouncilBERLIN, June 14 (Reuters) - China poses a growing threat to global security, Germany said in its first national security strategy on Wednesday, underscoring Berlin's shift in emphasis from economic interests to geopolitics following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It also omits some major issues, such as Taiwan, and as expected, does not create a National Security Council that would help its implementation. "We paid for every cubic metre of Russian gas twofold and threefold with our national security." Russia is the top threat to European peace "for now", the National Security Strategy (NSS) said. "The good thing is that German companies are drawing similar conclusions to the German federal government," she said.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Fabrizio Bensch, cyberattacks, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Annalena Baerbock, Ola Kaellenius, Baerbock, Noah Barkin, Norbert Roettgen, Scholz, Christian Lindner, Andreas Rinke, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Madeline Chambers, Christoph Steitz, Angus MacSwan, Mark Potter, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Germany, Security, BERLIN, Security Council, National Security, NSS, Volkswagen, BASF, BMW, Benz, NATO, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, China, Taiwan, Ukraine, Beijing, Asia, Russia, Moscow, Europe, Moldova, Georgia

☆ Why Hong Kong can’t cut loose from the US dollar just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s currency is facing its biggest test since the global financial crisis of 2008. The steep fall is a sign that investors are ditching the Hong Kong dollar. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is committed to keeping the Hong Kong dollar between 7.75 and 7.85 per greenback. People walk past the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) on May 4, 2023, in Hong Kong, China. “Pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar encourages such transactions to be carried out in Hong Kong and under Hong Kong law, even if neither party is based in Hong Kong.”This helps to create jobs and prosperity in Hong Kong, while also benefiting mainland China.

Persons: Hong, hasn’t, Andy Xie, ” Logan Wright, Bill Ackman’s, Ackman, Wright, Peter Parks, Kong, Deng Xiaoping, Margaret Thatcher, outflows, Chi Lo, Chen Yongnuo, Hong Kong’s, ”, Richard Cookson ,, Boaz Weinstein, Daniel Fung, Rhodium’s Wright, Xie, Eddie Yue, Banks, John Greenwood, “, Greenwood, ” Greenwood Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, British, Hong, Traders, Hong Kong, Bill Ackman’s Pershing, Capital Management, Getty, Lehman Brothers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, US Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, BNP, Asset Management, Fed, China News Service, Rubicon Fund Management, Bloomberg, Saba Capital Management, National Security Law, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Hong, Beijing, AFP, Britain, “, ”, Riding

☆ Opinion | The New Climate Law Is Working. Clean Energy Investments Are Soaring.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Brian Deese | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The largest increase is projected to be in industrial and manufacturing activity for hydrogen, carbon capture, energy storage and critical minerals — areas key to long-term energy security. The law did not provide all the necessary tools to achieve national goals for expanding our supply of clean energy. First, lawmakers must make it easier to build clean energy infrastructure in America. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should more aggressively clear backlogs preventing clean energy projects from connecting to the grid. Policymakers should consider new incentives to expand energy capacity, like conditioning federal assistance to states and localities that reform land-use policies to allow clean energy development.

☆ Chinese investment in Europe shifts to greenfield battery projects - report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Victoria Waldersee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, May 9 (Reuters) - Chinese investment in Europe is shifting from mergers and acquisitions to greenfield projects mainly in battery production for electric vehicles, according to 2022 data analysed by independent research providers MERICS and Rhodium Group. Greenfield investment made up 57% of total foreign direct investment by China in Europe in 2022, overtaking mergers and acquisitions for the first time since 2008, according to the report released on Tuesday. "We are witnessing a major shift in how Chinese companies invest in Europe... Chinese firms have become major players in Europe's green transition," Agatha Kratz, director of the Rhodium Group, said in a statement. Setting up operations from scratch in Europe allows Chinese players to avoid tariffs and transport costs and shield themselves from political tension that could impede exports and imports, the report said. While screenings of Chinese investments in Europe have increased, the region still remains more open politically to China than the United States which has cracked down on Chinese battery imports via the Inflation Reduction Act, it added.

☆ Beijing expects foreigners to trust, not verify
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In recent months, Chinese investigators have detained employees of U.S. due-diligence firm Mintz Group, visited consultancy Bain & Company and suspended auditor Deloitte’s Beijing operations for three months. Security watchdogs have restricted overseas access to financial data providers like Wind Information, as well as academic database China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Local banks loaned 3.9 trillion yuan ($560 billion) in March alone while corporations issued 328 billion yuan of bonds. Besides Wind, other Chinese data providers including company databases Qichacha and TianYanCha have stopped opening to offshore users, according to three of the sources. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China may have to bail out one of its poorest provinces
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Hong Kong CNN —One of China’s poorest and most indebted provinces has admitted defeat in trying to sort out its finances and is appealing to Beijing for help to avert default. Guizhou, located in a mountainous region of southwest China, has hired a top state-owned distressed debt fund, China Cinda Asset Management, to resolve its “urgent” problems. China’s local governments are struggling with trillions of dollars of debt, after three years of strict pandemic controls and a real estate crash drained their coffers. The Pingtang Bridge links two cities in southwest China's Guizhou province. In China, most local government liabilities are composed of “hidden debt” issued by their financing arms.

☆ US bank run victims were bailed out in 3 days. In China, many have been waiting a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Selina Wang | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN is not revealing the identities of the bank victims in order to protect their safety. Bank victims protest in Henan in July 2022. Experts say small banks in other parts of China could face the same crisis, as the world’s second largest economy faces a longer term structural slowdown. Some Chinese bank victims even say they’re living in fear of violent reprisals. CNN interviews bank victims in China.

Noah Barkin, an analyst with the Rhodium Group, said China's chief objective was to prevent Europe from aligning more closely with the United States. Macron travelled to China with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, both pressuring China on Ukraine, but failing to wrest any public shifts in position from Xi. Xi did not mention a possible conversation with Zelenskiy in China's official reports of his comments after the meetings. "Macron seemed to believe he could charm Xi into shifting his approach on the war," he said. "China and Europe can still be partners," said Wang Yiwei, director of Center for European Studies at Renmin University in Beijing.

☆ Taiwan tensions: It's very likely that Beijing goes beyond rhetoric, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTaiwan tensions: It's very likely that Beijing goes beyond rhetoric, research firm saysReva Goujon of Rhodium Group says the "military coercion risk is exactly why the Pentagon and Taiwan were very concerned about House Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy actually going to Taiwan for his visit in this geopolitical climate."

☆ Barkin: It's interesting the Europeans are in China to talk with President Xi, when the U.S. is having trouble doing the same
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarkin: It's interesting the Europeans are in China to talk with President Xi, when the U.S. is having trouble doing the sameNoah Barkin, senior adviser in the China practice at the Rhodium Group, discusses what EU leaders like French President Macron are hoping to achieve with their visit to Beijing to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping.

Macron last visited China in 2019 while it will be von der Leyen's first trip since becoming European Commission president that year. However, some analysts said ostentatious deal-signing would appear opportunistic at a time of heightened frictions between the United States and China. "Both (Macron and von der Leyen) have not only business in mind but also Ukraine," said Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. Macron and von der Leyen are expected to echo the message that Xi should also talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. China and EU decoupling will only serve U.S. interests, but make both China and Europe suffer," it said.

"It's a very prestigious thing to host the first visit abroad of the King of England, it doesn't happen every day. "Our message will be clear: There may be a temptation to get closer to Russia, but do not cross that line," a senior French diplomat said. They need a good relationship with Europe so will not want to play on Macron's internal problems," another French diplomat said. Analysts say China's deteriorating relationship with the U.S. gives Europe a bit more leverage, with the EU's vast single market becoming more crucial for China. Reporting by Michel Rose, John Irish in Paris and Laurie Chen in Beijing; Editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ US corporates and China hug awkwardly in Beijing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The final quarter saw a slight rebound, but American FDI into China has been slowing for years. Despite their suspicions of the U.S. government, Chinese officials don’t want American capitalists to stop investing in the country because their firms create jobs, bring technology and best practices. Anecdotal evidence suggests even in harmless industries like textiles and market research, decoupling is becoming the default American investment thesis. If China surprises by dramatically boosting internal demand, U.S. executives and their shareholders will be placated. Cook is in Beijing to attend the China Development Forum, a flagship investment conference organised by the government and held March 25-27.

☆ China's debt-heavy local governments look for new ways to raise cash
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Debt-heavy local governments in China need new ways to raise money under a central regime that's made clear its priority is to reduce financial risks. "We should ... prevent a build-up of new debts while working to reduce existing ones," the report said regarding local governments' situation. S&P and other analysts estimate land sales account for about a quarter of local governments' total revenue. But local governments still have bills and public services to pay for. Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.

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