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☆ The Fed may do a policy U-turn and slash interest rates as soon as year-end - because a recession almost here, J.P. Morgan Asset Management's CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may cut rates as soon as year-end as a recession hits the US economy, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's CIO. Such a move would be similar to how the Fed dropped its "transitory" call on inflation and started raising rates, he said. "They're going to tell us that they're going to keep rates higher for longer until inflation is at their target. "I think this time for them to cut rates, they're going to have to see unemployment go up. So it's possible that they may actually tip the economy into recession first before they start cutting rates, which would be something new for them.

Persons: we'll, Bob Michele, Michele, J.P, Morgan Asset's Michele Organizations: Morgan, Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Higher gasoline prices seen boosting US inflation in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.

Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

☆ Feeling the heat: 44% of Japan firms see earnings hit from extreme weather - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( David Dolan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Satoshi Sugiyama/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Some 44% of Japanese companies see extreme weather events around the globe hitting earnings, a Reuters survey showed, highlighting the impact of scorching heat waves and torrential rains on firms in the world's third-largest economy. Disaster-prone Japan is no stranger to extreme weather events, including typhoons, floods and blistering heat. "Infrastructure is likely to be disrupted due to extreme weather conditions, which could result in emergency spending and lower productivity," wrote a manager at a company in the transport sector. The monthly Reuters Corporate Survey of 502 large and medium-sized non-financial Japanese firms, in which 248 responded, showed a majority of non-manufacturers had already felt or expected to feel the effects of extreme weather on their earnings. Flooding has been a particular headache for Japanese companies.

Persons: Satoshi Sugiyama, Japan Inc's, Fumio, David Dolan, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mitsubishi Motor, Rights, Reuters Corporate Survey, Reuters, Nikkei Research, Investment, Thomson Locations: Kurashiki, Japan

☆ China’s Exports Fall for Fourth Straight Month
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

A Reuters survey forecast that exports had fallen 9.2 percent in August from a year earlier, and that imports had dropped 9 percent. Many had stocked up on manufactured goods during the pandemic, often from China, which has by far the world’s largest factory sector. Why It MattersExport and import statistics provide one of the early indications each month of how the Chinese economy fared in the preceding month. The data released on Thursday was the latest sign that overall demand for China’s goods may have begun to bottom out. While China’s exports have been weak this year, they are coming down from a very high level achieved during the pandemic.

Persons: ”, Louise Loo Organizations: Reuters, Export, Oxford Economics, “ Locations: United States, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Singapore, Europe, Asia

☆ Hollywood strike, Yellow bankruptcy likely restrained US job growth in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut

☆ Aussie home price downturn over, to rise this year and next
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Aug. 14-29 Reuters survey of 14 analysts forecast home prices will rise 4.4% this calendar year, a significant upgrade from the flat-lining predicted in a poll published in June. In 2024, average house prices were forecast to drift up another 5%, in line with the latest New Zealand home price poll forecast and a slight increase from 4.5% in the previous poll. With many aspiring homebuyers kept away from ownership and remaining in the rental market, average lease prices were also expected to rise sharply. "Unfortunately, most indicators suggest the squeeze has longer to run with additional supply unlikely to come onto the rental market anytime soon." Home prices in Sydney were forecast to rise 6.9% this year and 5.0% next, while prices in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth were expected to rise between 3% and 6% in 2023 and 2024.

Persons: Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank, Ciesielski, homebuyers, Matthew Hassan, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Australia, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth

☆ US consumer spending accelerates; monthly inflation rates cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending is being supported by a tight labor market, with other data showing first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly falling last week. "How long inflation can continue to come down with consumer spending this strong is an open question." When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.6%, also the largest gain since January. The so-called real consumer spending rose 0.4% in June. The annual PCE inflation rates were lifted by a lower base of comparison last year.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, nonfarm payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Services, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Employers, Labor Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, outlays

☆ US private payrolls growth slows sharply in August - ADP
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in August, the latest indication that the labor market was losing steam, though it remains tight. Private payrolls rose by 177,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would increase by 195,000. It has not been a reliable gauge in trying to predict the private payrolls count in the employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs in August.

Persons: payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: ADP, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor, of Labor Statistics, Thomson

☆ Oil prices down ahead of key economic data in China
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices fell in early trade on Tuesday ahead of a slew of economic data from China which should provide clues on the outlook for any recovery in demand in the world's top oil importer. In another worrying indicator, the People's Bank of China on Friday said new bank loans tumbled in July and other key credit gauges also weakened. "The upside for prices this year is likely to be capped, particularly as China's economic recovery continues to flag and shut-in OPEC production is released. The People's Bank of China last lowered the rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% in June. Weak economic performance in China is offsetting tight global oil supplies as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, are cutting production to lift prices.

Persons: pumpjack Organizations: . West Texas, Brent, People's Bank of China, Eurasia Group, People's Bank of, of, Petroleum Locations: Bakersfield, Kern County , California, USA, China, China's, Eurasia, People's Bank of China, OPEC

☆ China c.bank seen leaving policy loan rate unchanged on Tuesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File PhotoSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to keep rates on its medium-term policy loans unchanged on Tuesday, a Reuters survey showed, despite fresh signs the economic recovery is losing momentum. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) last lowered the rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% in June. "We believe more pro-growth policies are warranted to support the economic growth, and further easing in monetary policy can be expected," analysts at BofA Global Research said. They expect a 15-basis-point cut in one-year loan prime rate (LPR) in total in the third quarter of the year.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Li Hongwei, Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, HSBC, BofA Global Research, July's, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States, Shanghai, Singapore

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. As waves of volatility crashed over emerging markets on Monday, most notably in Argentina and Russia, the focus on Tuesday once again returns to the root of much of the deeper anxiety and uncertainty around EM: China. Reuters polls of economists suggest annual growth in investment and industrial output will remain steady from June's levels, while retail sales growth will rise to 4.5% from 3.1%. Tuesday's data dump comes a day before the central bank delivers its latest monthly monetary policy decision. With the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marching higher, global financial conditions are tightening and there doesn't appear to be any respite for emerging markets on the immediate horizon.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Investment, Reserve Bank of, Authorities, Reuters, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Argentina, Russia, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Japan, Beijing, U.S, Asia

[1/2] The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. Investor attention will be squarely on the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with a Reuters survey of 80 economists expecting payrolls to have increased by 200,000 last month, after rising 209,000 in June. "Today’s U.S. payrolls data is likely to continue to showcase the resilience of the U.S. economy," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a note. The dollar meanwhile rose 0.1% against a basket of major currencies , heading for its third weekly gain in a row. Oil prices headed for a sixth straight weekly gain, driven up by the prospect of reduced supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Persons: Toby Melville, payrolls, Michael Hewson, Germany's DAX, Francesco Sandrini, Fitch, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kirsten Donovan, Alexander Smith Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S . Federal, CMC Markets, FTSE, Nasdaq, Apple, Bank of England, U.S ., U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, U.S, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Singapore

☆ Slower, but still strong US employment growth expected in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

☆ Small businesses boost US private payrolls in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Amira Karaoud/File photoSummary Private payrolls increase by 324,000 in JulyWage growth gradually slowingWASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in July as small businesses boosted hiring, pointing to continued labor market resilience that could shield the economy from a recession. Private payrolls increased by 324,000 jobs last month after surging by 455,000 in June, according to ADP. MANUFACTURING DRAGHiring at small business, establishments with one to 49 employees increased 237,000, accounting for more than two-thirds of the gain in private payrolls last month. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the BLS is likely to report that private payrolls increased by 179,000 jobs in July.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, Christopher Rupkey, Nela Richardson, It's, Daniel Silver, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, ADP, Reuters, Treasury, Fed, Stanford Digital Economy, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Louisville , Kentucky, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Oil prices rise more than 1% after sharp drop in U.S. crude stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, trading near their highest since April, after industry data showed a much steeper-than-expected draw last week in crude oil inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest fuel consumer. U.S. oil inventories fell by 15.4 million barrels in the week ended July 28, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, compared with analysts' estimates for a drop of 1.37 million barrels. OPEC oil output fell in July on Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut as well as an outage that curbed Nigerian supply, a Reuters survey found on Monday. On the demand side, gasoline inventories fell by about 1.7 million barrels, according to the API data, compared with estimates for a 1.3 million barrel drop. Distillate inventories fell by about 510,000 barrels, compared with analysts estimates for a build of 112,000 barrels.

Persons: Biden Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, American Petroleum Institute, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, U.S . Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Energy Department Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Saudi

☆ US job openings at more than two-year low but still elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S

A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for investors holding other currencies. PVM analyst Tamas Varga noted that for months, predictions have been made that global oil demand will grow in the second half of 2023 versus the first half, in tandem with supply cuts to reduce global oil inventories. The latest figures from the U.S.- the world's biggest fuel consumer - showed fuel demand rose the highest level since August 2019. A Reuters poll also estimated U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have declined last week. In a conference on Monday, BP (BP.L) chief Bernard Looney presaged oil demand growth continuing into next year and OPEC+ being increasingly disciplined.

Persons: Johan Sverdrup, Carina Johansen, NTB, Brent, Dennis Kissler, Tamas Varga, group's, Bernard Looney, Arathy somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Emily Chow, Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul, David Evans, Nick Macfie, Jan Harvey Organizations: Reuters Connect, HOUSTON, Brent, . West Texas, BOK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: North, ., U.S, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Houston, London, Singapore

☆ Oil holds near three-month high on signs of tightening supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday but were still near a three-month high reached in the previous session on signs of tightening global supply, as producers implement output cuts, and strong demand in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer. A private sector survey also showed on Tuesday that China's factory activity swung to contraction in July, with supply, demand and export orders all deteriorating amid sluggish market conditions. In June, OPEC+ agreed on a broad deal to limit oil supply into 2024, and Saudi Arabia pledged an additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day for July. National Australia Bank analysts said they expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut into September. U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have declined last week, according to a Reuters poll which estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 900,000 barrels in the week to July 28.

Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Teng, Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, CMC Markets, Organization of Petroleum Exporting, National Australia Bank, NAB, Energy, Administration, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, United States, ., OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi

☆ Oil holds near three-month high on signs supply is tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil price were little changed on Tuesday, trading near a three-month high reached on Monday, on signs of tightening global supply as producers implement output cuts and strong demand in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer. Brent crude futures for October were at $85.30 a barrel at 0135 GMT, down 13 cents or 0.15% lower from its close. The data showing the supply cuts coincided with U.S. figures released on Monday showing fuel demand rose to 20.78 million bpd in May, the highest since August 2019. The data from the Energy Information Administration also showed gasoline demand, expressed as product supplied to the market, surged to 9.11 million bpd, the highest since June 2022. U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have declined last week, according to a Reuters poll which estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 900,000 barrels in the week to July 28.

Persons: Brent Organizations: Raffles, Brent, . West Texas, of Petroleum, National Australia Bank, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy, Administration Locations: Yantai, East China's Shandong province, United States, ., Saudi, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Saudi Arabia may raise Sept crude prices for a third month
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, may raise its price for Arab Light crude for sale to Asian refiners for a third month as its voluntary output cuts may be extended, further tightening the supply of high-sulphur, or sour, crude. The supply reductions have boosted oil prices, particularly for sour crude, since the end of June. Arab Light prices are also supported by improving refining margins in Asia, in particular for middle distillates. Most of the survey respondents expected Saudi Arabia to raise prices for heavier grades Arab Medium and Arab Heavy by more than Arab Extra Light as the light crude is oversupplied. The Arab Extra Light OSP typically tracks premiums of Murban, a light sour crude from the United Arab Emirates.

Persons: Backwardation, Saudi Aramco's, Muyu Xu, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Saudi Aramco, Organization of, Petroleum, Ministerial, United, Brent, Saudi, Kuwaiti, bbl, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, State, Saudi, Oman, Dubai, OPEC, Saudi Aramco, Asia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Americas, West Africa

☆ South Korea July consumer inflation slowest in 25 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Jihoon Lee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

An office worker eats his lunch at a convenience store in Seoul, South Korea, June 24, 2022. REUTERS/ Heo Ran/File PhotoSEOUL, Aug 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's consumer inflation cooled for a sixth consecutive month in July and by more than expected, official data showed on Wednesday. The consumer price index stood 2.3% higher in July than a year earlier, after a 2.7% rise in June and compared with a median 2.4% increase forecast in a Reuters survey of economists. It marked the weakest annual increase since June 2021, according to Statistics Korea, and was the second straight month the consumer price data came in lower than market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3.3% on an annual basis from 3.5% the previous month and hit the slowest rise since April 2022.

Persons: Heo, Jihoon Lee, Ed Davies, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Statistics, Thomson Locations: Seoul, South Korea, SEOUL, Statistics Korea

☆ US manufacturing shows signs of stabilizing at lower levels in July, ISM says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was the ninth straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 47.3 in July. According to the ISM, the delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing firms has been faster for 10 straight months. It has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count. Manufacturing employment likely rose by 5,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, Reuters Connect WASHINGTON, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, ISM, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Fed, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S

More actively traded October Brent crude futures rose $1.02, or 1.2%, to settle at $85.43 a barrel. The September Brent contract, which expired at settlement on Monday, rose 0.7% to close at $85.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied $1.22, or 1.5%, to $81.80 a barrel. Reuters GraphicsPump jacks operate at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick OxfordSaudi Arabia is expected to extend a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month to include September.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, WTI, Nick Oxford, Edward Moya, Phil Flynn, Shariq Khan, Natalie Grover, Florence, Mohi Narayan, Christina Fincher, Louise Heavens, David Evans, Nick Macfie, Paul Simao Organizations: Saudi, . West Texas, Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Organization of Petroleum, Reuters, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Futures, Thomson Locations: Riyadh, OPEC, Goldman Sachs BENGALURU, Midland , Texas, Nick Oxford Saudi Arabia, Saudi, U.S, India, Bengaluru, London, Florence Tan, Singapore, New Delhi

☆ Moderate US economic growth expected in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, likely remained a pillar of support, although the pace of growth slowed from the second quarter's robust 4.2% rate. Further contribution to GDP growth was expected from government spending. Inventory investment is a wild card, though most economists are penciling in a contribution to GDP growth of at least five tenths of a percentage point. Business sharply reduced inventory accumulation in the January-March quarter in anticipation of weaker domestic demand, slicing 2.14 percentage points off GDP growth that period.

Persons: Dean Maki, they're, Mike Skordeles, Joe Biden's, Sean Snaith, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Point72, Management, Labor Department, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Fed, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, Atlanta, United States, London

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