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☆ Workers are missing cog in US manufacturing gears
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There’s a spanner in the freshly restarted U.S. manufacturing machine. Based in part on the planned construction spending, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that Biden’s initiatives could lead to as many as 250,000 new manufacturing jobs over the next two years. Pay growth is also cooling faster for production and manufacturing jobs, at 4.2% year-over-year in August, down from an 11% annual peak in December 2021 and compared to the national average of 4.5%, according to jobs website Indeed. By 2030, technological and cognitive skills in the manufacturing sector will be in far higher demand as the share of physical and manual tasks drops by more than a quarter from 2016, McKinsey says. The U.S. manufacturing engine may be humming along now, but employment-related complications threaten to throw sand in the gears.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, Goldman Sachs, There’s, it’s, Sam, Francesco Guererra, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Deal, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics, Intel, Bosch, Linde, Public, Ford, SK Innovation, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McKinsey, University of Massachusetts, Economy Research, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: Arizona, U.S, United States, China, Europe, Asia, it’s, Germany, Amherst

☆ Morning Bid: Rates buzz sustained before Fed loan data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen about 50bps from October's peaks and the drop last week was the biggest recoil since March. For now, S&P500 futures are pointing to further slight gains on Monday - which if realized on the cash market later would make for the sixth straight gain and the longest daily run since June. Undermined by the retreat in Treasury yields, the dollar (.DXY) slipped back to the lowest since Sept 20. The backdrop of an easier dollar and Treasury yields provides significant relief for emerging markets, with MSCI's emerging market stock index (.MSCIEF) hitting its highest since Sept 20 too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, underscoring, Janet Yellen, Lisa Cook, Huw Pill, Bernadette Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Pacific Rim, South, Ryanair, Europe's, Goodyear Tire &, Aspen, Conterra Energy, Constellation Energy, Diamondback Energy, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, NXP Semiconductors, Bank of England, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, Western, San Francisco, South Korean, Asia, Europe, Telesat

☆ Canary Wharf may yet avoid once-a-decade upheaval
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Canary Wharf tends to have a new owner every decade. A recent 300 million pound equity injection implies they will buck the trend. Brookfield and the QIA, which own the estate’s developer Canary Wharf Group through a 50-50 partnership, ostensibly look to be backing a losing horse. Factoring in all its assets on the Canary Wharf estate, Brookfield as of September valued it all at $6.1 billion, or 5 billion pounds – over 2 billion pounds more than what the duo put in eight years ago. Canary Wharf could be owned by highly leveraged, shallow-pocketed types.

Persons: –, Paul Reichmann’s Olympia, Morgan, Breakingviews, dory, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, HSBC, HK, London Docklands, Qatar Investment Authority, Canary, York, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Brookfield, Wharf Group, Thomson Locations: Brookfield, –, CWG, City, Wharf

The funds available for deals are growing as investors including pension funds, sovereign wealth and insurance firms look for meaty returns hard to find in today's equity markets, especially in the beaten-down real estate sector. Australian real estate specialist Qualitas (QAL.AX), whose backers include the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, has nearly doubled funds under management to A$8 billion ($5.07 billion) since mid-2022, with roughly half the increase since this June. U.S.-based PGIM Real Estate expects to deploy a further $1 billion in the country over the next few years, said its head of Australian real estate Steve Bulloch. Lenders are expanding into residential and commercial construction as banks slow lending or exit, a March report from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said. JUICY RETURNSInvestors can expect returns from 9% to 11% with the added security of loans pledged against real assets like condos or warehouses, often with a 30% to 40% equity buffer, said Paul Notaras, executive director at Barings Real Estate Australia.

Persons: Stella Qiu, meaty, Steve Bulloch, JUICY, Paul Notaras, Notaras, Qualitas, Andrew Schwartz, Bonds, We've, Schwartz, Lewis Jackson, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Abu, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Group, International Monetary, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia, prudential, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Parramatta, Sydney, SYDNEY, Australian, Abu Dhabi, Australia, Qualitas, Singapore

☆ Rich countries are stumbling into a debt trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Unlike many corporations and households, the U.S. government did not lock in the low interest rates of the last decade by issuing long-dated debt, preferring instead to skew funding towards bills and short-term bonds. The second route out of the debt trap is to target the primary fiscal surplus, choosing a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes that will stabilise the public debt. That leaves the third route to debt sustainability – keeping real interest rates low. But in the short run, it allows a government to tame the debt ratio without fiscal austerity, and even if growth is sluggish. Governments are indeed stuck in a classic debt trap.

Persons: Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kacper, Everett Dirksen, you’re, Dirksen’s, Stanley Druckenmiller, Joe Biden’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan's, NATO, REUTERS, Reuters, Congressional, Office, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Medicaid, Federal, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Vilnius, Lithuania, Illinois, U.S, Britain

☆ Bezos makes third losing bet on real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It’s not the only questionable real estate decision Bezos has made in the past several years. He announced in a Thursday Instagram post that he will move to Miami, leaving the Washington city where he founded Amazon in 1994. Bezos grew up in the south-Florida city in the early 1980s, and he will return to a two-mansion compound worth some $147 million, according to Bloomberg. Miami-based real estate had a renaissance during the pandemic as people sought warmer climates where they could be outside. Still, the founder is no stranger to real estate bets that don’t always make financial sense.

Persons: Jeff Bezos, It’s, Bezos, Ken Griffin, David Tepper, lockdowns, That’ll, don’t, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Amazon, Bloomberg, U.S . Federal Housing Finance Agency, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dade, University of Miami, Homes, Climate, U.S . Federal Aviation Administration, Shepard, Thomson Locations: Miami, Seattle, Florida, Washington, Bezos, Indian, Arlington , Virginia, Arlington, Cape Canaveral

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks clocking best week of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The U.S. October employment report out later on Friday caps a hectic two weeks of central bank decisions, company updates and unnerving geopolitics. As the first major marker of U.S. economic strength in the final quarter of the year, the payrolls report packs a punch despite expected strike-related distortions. The interest rate relief this week is pervasive, however, as the Fed, ECB and BoE all paused tightening and U.S. Treasury debt sales worries ebbed somewhat. U.S. Treasury (.MOVE) and equity market (.BIX) volatility gauges have subsided to their lowest levels since early last month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, BoE, ebbed, Antony Blinken, Sam Bankman, Fried, Michael Barr, Neel Kashkari, Huw Pill, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Apple, Fed, ECB, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Labor Department, Eversource Energy, Cardinal Health, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Church, Dwight, AMC, Liberty Media, Icahn Enterprises, Federal, Bank of England, Israel Productivity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Isreal, Gaza, Gaza City, Canada, Minneapolis, Israel

A general view of the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. In making that call the BoE report focuses mostly on consumption, which it estimates makes up about 60% of GDP. As a result, the BoE expects the fallout from rate moves to date to "grow over time" even if one-off quarterly hits have peaked. And whatever the slow-burning hit to growth and consumption, inflation surprises could well change the increasingly comfortable markets picture. BOE chart on GDP outlookBOE chart on consumption hit from rate risesReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan X: @reutersMikeD; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Huw Pill, what's, BoE, Modupe Adegbembo, Andy Burgess, BOE, Mike Dolan, David Evans Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Bank, Reuters, AXA Investment Managers, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, British

The monthly data does comes with a footnote: The headline job gains of 150,000 were depressed by a United Auto Workers strike. But even accounting for that the number was close to the 183,000 monthly pace of job growth sustained for the 10 years before the pandemic, from 2010 to 2019, and to that extent looked "normal" after years of outsized job gains. The pace of annual wage growth eased down to 4.1% in October in a continuing decline, while the month-to- month increase of 0.2% annualizes to around 2.4%, within the Fed's comfort zone. If labor force growth is coupled with an easing of open jobs, it could show a job market moving closer to balance. But if consumption remains strong and drives still-high numbers of openings, then a stall in labor force growth could reignite wage pressures.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Morgan Stanley’s new CEO inherits rich pickings
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

A good place to start is outside Morgan Stanley’s home market. Morgan Stanley’s two last big acquisitions were chunky, at a combined $20 billion, but also filled niches. E*Trade, an online brokerage, brought millions of households and company employees that Morgan Stanley hadn’t previously served. Eaton Vance, a U.S. asset manager, peddles investment products that Morgan Stanley now funnels through sales teams in far-flung markets. CEO Jane Fraser shows no inclination to sell private banking, which for now sits within the group’s $756 billion global wealth management bucket.

Persons: Ted Pick’s, Morgan Stanley, Pick, James Gorman, Morgan, Gorman, Germany’s, Britain’s, Morgan Stanley’s, Morgan Stanley hadn’t, Eaton Vance, Smith Barney, watchdogs, Jane Fraser, It’s, Noel Quinn’s, Ping, Colm Kelleher, Ted Pick, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Credit Suisse, McKinsey ., Morgan, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Infrastructure, Citi, U.S, HSBC, HK, UBS, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Asia, Pacific, Japan, India, China, French, Europe, Switzerland, HK, Swiss

☆ Shell’s shrinking green pledge risks backfiring
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Callaghan O’Hare Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shell (SHEL.L) CEO Wael Sawan has upped the UK group’s quarterly buyback plan while cutting back on unprofitable low-carbon activities. His pivot back into fossil fuels has shielded the $217 billion company from the wind energy troubles now ensnaring European peer BP (BP.L) and renewables giant Orsted (ORSTED.CO). But the strategy can work only as long as volatile energy prices stay high. Shell’s $6.2 billion third-quarter adjusted net profit shrunk by a third from a year earlier but came in line with analysts’ expectations. So far this year, the total return for Shell’s shareholders has hit 17%, above rivals like BP and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA).

Persons: Wael Sawan, Daniel Yergin, Callaghan O’Hare, Sawan, Shell, pare, Lisa Jucca, Streisand Neto Organizations: Shell, P Global, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, BP, EV, Nature Energy, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Carbon Solutions, Renewables, Energy Solutions, Thomson Locations: Houston , Texas, U.S, Rights SINGAPORE

☆ Fed's Powell says balance sheet rundown will proceed without change for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he sees no reason to change the current drawdown of the central bank's still-massive balance sheet. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "is not considering changing the pace of balance sheet runoff. While shrinking Fed holdings may have a small impact on real world borrowing costs, "I think it’s hard to make a case that reserves are even close to scarce at this point." Reuters GraphicsFed officials have said repeatedly that the balance sheet drawdown effort complements rate rises and runs in the background.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, it's, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics Fed, Reuters Graphics, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Yen hangs under intervention cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. As Europe wakes up, the yen is not far off the one-year low of 151.74 hit this week and the three-decade low of 151.94 touched last year, which triggered an intervention by Tokyo at the time. The broad yen sell-off on Tuesday came a day after the BOJ watered down its 1% yield cap on the 10-year bond. How hard the BOJ defends the so-called 1% reference will be the key question traders ask in coming days. With little on Europe's economic calendar, investors are likely to keep the focus on the Fed and yen.

Persons: Florence Lo, Ankur Banerjee, Masato Kanda, ramping, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, PMI, Nationwide, GSK, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, United States

☆ Orsted’s losing US bets need rethink of UK plans
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Turbulent news has buffeted the wind sector of late, from faulty turbines at Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) to Orsted’s own surprise impairments in August. After that surprise – largely caused by suppliers’ issues – Orsted’s stock price is just a fifth of its 2021 peak of 1,350 Danish crowns. That suggests investors are neither counting on future growth from its U.S. portfolio nor sufficiently factoring in Orsted’s earnings from operating projects. That’s a far cry from the annual average increase of 14% from 2023 onwards implied by Orsted’s EBITDA target of up to 55 billion Danish crowns in 2030. Hornsea Three would require capital investments of 48.5 billion Danish crowns, according to Bernstein.

Persons: Mads Nipper, Nipper, Orsted, Bernstein, Orsted’s, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Siemens Energy, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S ., Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, United States, New Jersey, Danish, U.S . East Coast

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department said it will slow the pace of increases in its longer-dated debt auctions in the November-January quarter. Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading higher, with information technology (.SPLRCT) and communication services (.SPLRCL) leading gains. Overall, analysts expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow 5% in the third-quarter, per LSEG data. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and 24 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 190 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Estee Lauder, U.S . Treasury Department's refunding, Jerome Powell's, Robert Pavlik, EL.N, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Shashwat Chauhan, Sriraj Kalluvila, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, CVS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, Dakota Wealth, Traders, Treasury Department, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Labor, Dow Jones, Paycom, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, October's U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Bengaluru

☆ Mega-cap firm valuations fall amid rising rates, tech earnings concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A sign is pictured outside a Google office near the company's headquarters in Mountain View, California, U.S., May 8, 2019. REUTERS/Paresh Dave/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 1 (Reuters) - Most global mega-cap stocks continued their slide in October, hit by the rise in U.S. interest rates and lacklustre third-quarter earnings growth among some top U.S. tech firms. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTesla's (TSLA.O) market value tumbled almost 20% to $638 billion last month, largely due to the impact of rising U.S. interest rates on electric vehicle (EV) demand. On the other hand, Microsoft's (MSFT.O) market value jumped 7.1% to $2.5 trillion, buoyed by its strong fiscal first-quarter results in all segments. This growth was attributed to strong performances in cloud computing and PC businesses, bolstered by increased customer interest in its artificial intelligence offerings.

Persons: Paresh Dave, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Google, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Panasonic Holdings, Nvidia, Oil, Thomson Locations: Mountain View , California, U.S, Japan, China, Saudi, Bengaluru

And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.

Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend

☆ Morning Bid: Fed, financing and jobs greet November
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Despite the U.S. Treasury forecasting a lower fourth-quarter borrowing need than previously flagged, the tension in the bond market remains ahead of its detailed future refinancing plans due later on Wednesday. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold policy rates steady again on Wednesday, the Treasury plans may end up getting more bond market attention. But U.S. consumer confidence has softened, oil prices are falling again and the overseas demand picture is weakening. Another heavy day of U.S. corporate earnings is topped by big insurers and the likes of PayPal and Kraft Heinz. On Tuesday, shares in heavy-machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT.N) sank almost 7% as signs of slowing demand overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Masato Kanda, it's, Japan's, China Evergrande, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Kraft Heinz, Estee Lauder, Kraft, Ingersoll Rand, Nick Macfie Organizations: Wednesday's, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, Japan, U.S, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HK, White House, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Wall, PayPal, Kraft, Caterpillar, Edison, AIG, Prudential Financial, MetLife, Qualcomm, Mckesson, Kraft Heinz, Allstate, Congnizant, Boston Properties, Water, Garmin, CVS, Brands, Humana, Reuters Graphics Reuters, US National Retail Federation, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China, Hong Kong, San Francisco, Tokyo, Marathon, Boston

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ Bond fund managers head for third year of losses for first time in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsEuropean funds have effectively returned nothing this year after two down years, Morningstar data shows. Government bond funds have fared even worse and are set for three years of losses in both the U.S. and Europe. Bond yields rise as prices fall, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsBank of America said there were $5.6 billion of inflows to long-dated Treasury funds last week, the largest on record. ICI data shows that U.S. money market funds have ballooned to $5.6 trillion in assets, from $4.6 trillion in October last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Stefano Fiorini, Oliver Blackbourn, Janus Henderson, You've, Jonas Goltermann, Max Kettner, Harry Robertson, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters Graphics, Morningstar, U.S, Generali Investments Partners, Reserve, Reuters, Treasury, Citi, ICE, Fed, Capital Economics, Investment Company Institute, Reuters Graphics Bank of America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ICI, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S

"BP reported weak numbers this morning...However, notably, BP has reported exceptional gas trading results on several occasions in the last couple of years, including last quarter," said RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria. In the downstream, customers & products reported $2.1 bln vs consensus $2.4 bln, despite being supported by very strong oil trading results, suggesting weaker refining margin capture in the third quarter." That was up from the $2.6 billion profit the company reported in the prior three months due to higher oil and gas production, strong refining margins, lower refinery maintenance and "a very strong oil trading result", but natural gas marketing and trading were weak. BP expects capital expenditure of $16 billion this year, the lower end of its indicated range of $16-$18 billion. Rivals Chevron (CVX.N) and Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) last week posted sharp year-on-year drops in third quarter profit as energy prices cooled.

Persons: Norway's, Biraj Borkhataria, Murray Auchincloss, Bernard Looney, Ron Bousso, Louise Heavens, Jason Neely Organizations: windfarm, BP, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Rivals Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Thomson, & $ Locations: U.S, British, New York

☆ Big government will drive the next market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Growth picked up while quiescent inflation permitted interest rates to fall. Bereft of government support, central banks tried to stimulate their economies by pushing interest rates to new lows. That means interest rates will struggle to return to the ultra-low levels seen after 2008. The first takeaway is that higher debt levels, inflation and interest rates should be bad for bonds. Vincent Deluard of StoneX has proposed a division between intangible and tangible companies.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ” Ronald Reagan’s, Milton Friedman –, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher –, Reaganomics ”, Réka Juhász, Nathan J, Lane, Dani Rodrik, government’s, Vincent Deluard, StoneX, Lockheed Martin, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Republicans, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank, Asset, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Capital, Facebook, Meta, Lockheed, Micron Technology, U.S, Congress, Nasdaq, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, “, Ukraine, Covid, Europe, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan

[1/2] The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium December 6, 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) employee representatives on Tuesday harshly criticized the bank's plans to slash its Postbank branch network, saying the move sends the wrong signal and comes at the wrong time. The reputation of the Postbank brand is severely damaged... and now the bank is starting a new construction project." Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsClaudio de Sanctis, the new Deutsche Bank board member overseeing the lender's retail operations, in a staff memo on Monday laid out his vision for Postbank becoming a "mobile-first" bank. Deutsche Bank said that talks with employee representatives would take place soon to determine final details on the cuts.

Persons: Yves Herman, Jan Duscheck, Susanne Bleidt, Claudio de Sanctis, Tom Sims, Rachel More, Emelia Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Deutsche, Verdi, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium

☆ Fed's reverse repo facility drawdown looms large in balance sheet debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Inflows have dropped sharply in recent months to around $1 trillion in the face of the Fed's aggressive policy tightening underway since last year. Fed officials, for their part, have said repeatedly they’ve got a lot of room to cut their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, a process that complements Fed rate increases. So far, reverse repos have “come down very smoothly,” Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed said earlier this month. In his view, if reverse repos stopped contracting that could become a meaningful sign liquidity levels were getting tight enough for the Fed to change gears. "We still have a very large balance sheet" so the balance sheet cuts can likely continue over the next year and half to two years, she said, adding when it comes to getting to the finish line, "it's going to take a while."

Persons: they’ve, ” Lorie Logan, Logan, “ I’ve, Wells Fargo, Roberto Perli, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Crandall reckons, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Dallas Fed, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Wells

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