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☆ Treasury yields dip as investors weigh expectations for economy, monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the outlook for the economy and central bank interest rates and looked to economic data for hints. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading just over 1 basis point lower at 3.687%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by around 1 basis point at 4.512%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Investors weighed what could be on the horizon for the economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates, ahead of the central bank's meeting on June 13 and 14.

Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors weigh economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors considered what could be on the horizon for the economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. At 5:32 a.m. ET the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over 3 basis points to 3.66%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading by more than 2 basis points lower at 4.454%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Treasury yields hold steady as Senate passes debt ceiling bill, investors await key jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than a basis point, reaching 3.618%. The 2-year Treasury was last trading at 4.351% after rising by less than 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors anticipated key jobs data, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act cleared the Senate, ensuring that the U.S. would not default on its debt obligations. On Thursday, U.S. ADP private payrolls showed companies added 278,000 jobs in May, exceeding the 178,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Persons: Joe Biden, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Senate, Republicans, Democrats, Federal Reserve, ADP, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

The dollar remained relatively weaker against most of its major peers, even as the dollar index rose 0.059% and the euro fell 0.15% to $1.1002. Friday's robust U.S. payrolls report prompted investors to dial back their expectations for the timing and size of the Fed's first interest rate cut. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose a touch above 4.0%. The dollar rose 0.18% against the yen. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

☆ What to watch for in the markets in the week ahead: Monster tech earnings, then sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.

☆ Treasury yields climb as investors weigh inflation, interest rate policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than two basis points to 3.6568%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.3168% after rising by over nine basis points. It had posted its largest three-day decline since the October 1987 stock market crash following the Silicon Valley Bank 's failure last week. U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday as investors assessed the outlook for inflation and considered how the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse could affect Federal Reserve monetary policy. Economists and investors considered that the Fed may now prioritize financial stability, with some going as far as suggesting the central bank would pause rate hikes.

Europe’s distillate stocks were -41 million barrels (-10% or -1.43 standard deviations) below the ten-year average at the end of January. Singapore’s distillate inventories were -3 million barrels (-30% or -1.53 standard deviations) below the ten-year average on February 19. At the end of the last three recessions, U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories stood at 151 million barrels (April 2020), 163 million barrels (June 2009) and 139 million barrels (November 2001). By contrast, inventories currently stand at just 122 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). So far, there has been only modest progress in rebuilding distillate stocks and defanging the inflation threat.

☆ Mortgage rates will drop to 5.2% this year despite the uptick this month, said a top economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts mortgage rates will fall to 5.2% from above 6% in 2023. The prediction rests on a drop in the 10-year Treasury-bond yield, which influences mortgage rates. For a few weeks, it looked like mortgage rates were well on their way to sub-6% levels. Despite the whipsawing rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association is sticking to its forecasts, Kan said. "A lot of people that bought or refinanced in 2020 and 2021 have 3% mortgage rates.

☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors consider the outlook for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

As of 04:31 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by less than one basis point to 3.7359%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.5386%, after rising by over two basis points earlier in the session. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Monday, as investors awaited key inflation data and fretted over the potential impact on future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Investors assessed the outlook for inflation and monetary policy, including the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Fed. Key inflation data, including the consumer price index report for January, is expected on Tuesday.

☆ Markets may be taking the wrong read from January's shocking jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The resounding strength of January employment report does not change our view of the labor market. Significant imbalances remain in the labor market due to too much excess demand and limited labor market slack," added Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. That's because they see the jobs report gain of 517,000 as a potential impetus to push the Fed into more aggressive interest rate hikes. He thinks future months will show a slowing labor market that will force the Fed into halting its hikes. "From a data-dependency perspective, the strength of the labor market suggests there might be need to continue to raise interest rates."

☆ Wall Street closes green as GDP data eases recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] People stand by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 26, 2023. Fourth-quarter earnings season has hit full stride, with more than one fourth of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Analysts now see aggregate fourth quarter earnings falling 2.7%, worse than the 1.6% year-on-year decline seen on Jan. 1, but an improvement over the 3% annual decline as of Wednesday, per Refinitiv. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, all but consumer staples (.SPLRCS) advanced. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 111 new highs and 32 new lows.

☆ Wall Street gains as solid GDP data offsets signs of economic weakness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] People stand by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 26, 2023. Fourth-quarter earnings season has hit full stride, with more than one fourth of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Analysts now see aggregate fourth quarter earnings falling 2.7%, worse than the 1.6% year-on-year decline seen on Jan. 1, but an improvement over the 3% annual decline as of Wednesday, per Refinitiv. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, energy (.SPNY) led the percentage gainers, boosted by rising crude prices due to signs of increasing demand from China. Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) provided the most upside muscle to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, its shares jumping 9.4% in the wake of its earnings report.

☆ Dollar stuck near nine-month low vs euro as yen bounces
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a nine-month low against the euro and surrendered recent gains against the yen on Tuesday, as traders weighed the risks of a U.S. recession against the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Euro zone data on Tuesday reinforced the view that the economy is surviving a winter of intense price pressures reasonably well, analysts said. "That's integral to our bearish U.S. dollar view, that the U.S. is not going to be the global growth leader." Elsewhere, the dollar fell 0.4% to 130.18 yen , breaking a two-day rally. Last week, the dollar fell as low as 127.215 yen, its weakest since May, before a Bank of Japan policy review as investors bet the BOJ would begin to end its stimulus programme.

☆ This fund crushed it last year in part by heavily betting on one unique oil stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The fund isn't tied to any index, nor does Schwartz try to mimic a specific sector weighting. About 40% of the fund's investments today are in energy, Schwartz said, with no bets on the consumer defensive and utilities sectors, according to Morningstar data. Then a trust, many people steered clear of the large Texas land owner, which owns land often used for oil and gas drilling, and traded at around $150 a share. Schwartz's bet on energy extends to a more traditional stake in Chevron , (4.3% of the fund) which he calls a premiere integrated oil and gas company. But Schwartz started accumulating energy stocks well before the latest rally, when crude oil plummeted during the pandemic.

☆ Stocks have transitioned from ‘quiet quitting’ to a ‘quiet rebuilding,’ Ned Davis Research says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The benchmark index also entered a bear market, dropping more than 20% from its record high set in early January 2022. Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold noted that stocks were "quiet quitting" heading into 2022, as market breadth deteriorated. Quiet quitting is a term that came about during the Covid pandemic and refers to employees choosing not to go above and beyond their job requirements. .SPX mountain 2021-01-13 From 'quiet quitting' to 'quiet rebuilding'? CNBC's Market Strategist Survey shows the median S & P 500 strategist target sits at 4,100, implying upside of just 6.8% for 2023.

☆ Treasury yields fall as traders look ahead to key economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury was trading at around 3.5687% after falling by around five basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down by over three basis points to 4.22%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as traders looked to key economic data releases due later this week that could provide fresh insights into the state of the U.S. economy. The Fed implemented a 50 basis point rate hike at its December meeting, a slight decline from the 75 basis point increases it announced at its previous four meetings. No major data releases are slated for Wednesday.

The rupee finished last week 1.2% lower at 82.27 per dollar, tumbling swiftly from trading in the 81-handle initially. Considering that, the rupee is still expected to be "stuck" in a range, they added. Meanwhile, India's benchmark government bond yield ended last week at 7.2982%, with the 8 bps gain its biggest weekly rise since late-September. Yields are expected to move in a narrow range of 7.26%-7.36%, with high chances of the upper end being tested, said a fixed income trader. After the Fed meeting, traders will also watch out for the central bank's dot plot to see where terminal rates could go.

The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the firm level, showing the change in prices paid for the supplies, materials and services that businesses use, and for the final goods that retailers resell. Prices for final goods less volatile commodities and shipping costs rose 0.2% in October, continuing a slow pace for those "core" items. The model shows the Fed rate now rising only to 4.75%-5.00% in March, whereas a week ago it showed the Fed rate likely exceeding 5% by then. The breakeven-inflation rate on the 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security slid to the lowest in a month at 2.38%. Shepherdson has been focused on the producer price index as more important than usual because of market distortions driven by the pandemic, and said that a drop in the index's margin components would influence the direction of consumer prices going forward.

That could support a rally in 10-year Treasury bonds and help stocks extend their recent gains, they said. "I think the markets are rallying at the prospect of gridlock," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital in Chicago. Historically, stocks have tended to do better under a split government when a Democrat is in the White House, with investors attributing some of that performance to political gridlock that prevents major policy changes. The benchmark index has risen about 5% over the last month, cutting its year-to-date decline to about 20%. With U.S. equity options market positioned for relative calm, a surprisingly strong showing by Democrats could upend markets.

☆ Investors brace for government gridlock as Republicans seen gaining in U.S. midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Republicans are favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets show, though there are still hours left to vote. "I think the markets are rallying at the prospect of gridlock," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital in Chicago. "Fiscal spending has created a challenge for central banks worldwide. The S&P 500 (.SPX), which finished up 0.6% on the day, has risen about 5% over the last month. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Net worth is 30% higher than before the pandemic, more so for those in the bottom half. Overall, the economy is expected to grow in 2022, albeit slowly, after concerns earlier in the year that it had begun to contract. The unemployment rate has averaged 3.6% since March - better than before the 2018 midterm elections under Trump, and unrivaled really since the 1966 midterm elections. But a third of both Democrats and Republicans said they had delayed a "home, office or other purchase" because of higher rates - decisions that can sting as families plan for the years ahead. But for the last year the growth has stalled, and heading into the elections on Tuesday there seems little optimism left.

☆ FTSE 100 steady, midcaps fall ahead of key Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

UK pharmaceuticals stocks (.FTNMX201030) rose 1.2% after GSK (GSK.L) said it expects sales to rise between 8% and 10%, sending its shares up 1.2%. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was flat, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) fell 0.4% by 0934 GMT, dragged down by budget airline Wizz Air (WIZZ.L) after it said uncertainty for consumers rose. Third-quarter earnings among companies on the FTSE 100 have so far painted a mixed picture, as some firms performed better than expected as COVID restrictions eased globally, while some battled supply chain snags and surging inflation. British American Tobacco Plc fell 3%, to the bottom of FTSE 100, after Goldman Sachs downgraded its performance rating for the stock to "neutral". Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. dollar rises as Fed likely doing another big hike; sterling sinks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose 0.8% against the struggling yen to 148.62 yen . For the month of October, the dollar was up 2.7%, on track to post its third monthly gain versus the Japanese currency. Generally, the dollar is somewhere in the bend - trying to establish a high, but has not generally done so. The greenback, however, was on pace for a monthly decline of 0.5% in October, based on the dollar index.

☆ Exclusive: China FX regulator surveys banks about positioning as yuan plunges
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The FX regulator asked (us) about our market views and our positioning," said one of the sources. Two of the sources said the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) made it clear the survey was urgent. "Foreign exchange reserves are at a critical level, and some market participants are betting that the authorities will eventually intervene." China's foreign exchange reserves now stand at just above the closely watched $3 trillion level. "China is likely to protect the reserves this time round as the Congress emphasizes that foreign exchange reserves are an indicator of comprehensive national strength," said ANZ's Xing.

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