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☆ Morning Bid: Fresh spur from Meta and Europe's banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Perhaps even more surprising, Europe's big banks are wowing the gallery too - showing limited, if any, fallout from the failure of ailing Credit Suisse at the end of the quarter. And so the glass appears half full again despite background tensions around regional U.S. banks and as wider markets brace for several weeks of a U.S. debt ceiling standoff. With Amazon reporting later, its stock rose another 2% ahead of the bell too. The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday narrowly passed a bill to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling that includes sweeping spending cuts over the next decade. The dollar was marginally weaker, with crude oil prices struggling to recover from their latest lunge lower this week.

☆ Australia inflation slows in Q1, market leans against rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The annual pace slowed to 7.0%, from 7.8%, suggesting inflation had finally peaked after two years of rapid acceleration in costs. For March alone, the CPI rose 6.3% on the year, down from 6.8% in February. Still, core inflation remains far above the RBA's target band of 2-3% and policy makers have been worried it could fuel a price wage spiral absent further tightening. "Headline inflation has peaked, and weaker tradables inflation will contribute to slower inflation over the rest of 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "But we think there is enough momentum in core and services inflation to warrant tighter policy settings, and maintain our expectation for another rate hike in May."

☆ Morning Bid: Cloud control - tech trumps banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Alphabet (GOOGL.O) also gained 1% as it too trumpeted gains in cloud services and AI, alongside plans for a $70 billion buyback. With Meta (META.O) results out later, its stock was up 2% and Amazon (AMZN.O) raced ahead 4%. PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) shares jumped 15% in extended trading after the regional lender said deposits have been building recently. And in Europe, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) shares bucked otherwise dour markets on a forecast-beating 21% jump in first-quarter profits. U.S. Treasury markets continued to rally, with yields on 2-year notes dropping below 4% Tuesday and testing 3.9% early today.

The top-tier Asian economic data cupboard on Thursday is bare, meaning regional markets will probably feed off U.S. earnings, banking sector woes, debt ceiling developments and geopolitical events for direction. This was followed up on Wednesday by Meta (META.O), whose shares surged 12% after hours after the company’s strong earnings beat. First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) shares plunged to another record low, but PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumped 8% after beating estimates and stemming deposit outflows. The yuan was used in 48.4% of transactions, Reuters calculated, while the dollar's share declined to 46.7%. China added to its Treasuries holdings in February, but not enough to make up for the fairly heavy selling in January.

☆ US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have shown resilience despite high inflation and a rise in interest rates, keeping the economy afloat, thanks to a strong labor market. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 37.3 from 36.5 in March, consistent with a tight labor market. "Take consumer purchase plans with a grain of salt," said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. That skepticism also extended to home purchase plans.

Steep falls in the shares of these companies and regional banks, a major source of investor concern, dragged down the main indices. This is the first major economic indicator since new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda took over earlier this month. Foreign investors poured nearly $12 billion into Japanese equities last week, their biggest weekly net purchases since at least January 2018. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Japan inflation (March)- Japan and Australia flash PMIs (April)- South Korea producer price inflation (March)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

April 19 (Reuters) - Citizens Financial Group Inc's (CFG.N) first-quarter profit missed Wall Street estimates as deposits declined and it set aside more rainy-day funds to cover for souring loans. The potential economic downturn prompted Citizens to set aside $168 million in case its customers default on their loans, compared with $3 million a year earlier. Citizens gradually set aside more money to cover potential losses on office loans, where it predicts weakness as remote working becomes more popular, while rising interest rates and a weaker economy put pressure on borrowers. Average deposits fell 2.6% to $174.4 billion in the three months ended March 31, compared with $179 billion at the end of the previous quarter. Citizens reported an underlying profit of $1.10 per share; analysts' on average had expected it to report $1.13 per share, according to Refinitiv IBES data.

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

☆ Charles Schwab beats profit estimates on higher rates; deposits drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 17 (Reuters) - Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW.N) beat first-quarter profit estimates as rate hikes by the Federal Reserve boosted the financial services provider's interest income, even as it struggled with a decline in deposits from the U.S. banking crisis last month. They shed 37% in the first quarter after Charles Schwab was caught up in the banking turmoil triggered by the collapse of two regional U.S. banks last month. Deposits shrank at Charles Schwab as customers moved capital to chase greater returns from other asset classes. The firm's deposits fell to $325.7 million in the first quarter from $366.7 million in the prior quarter. Total net revenue rose 10% to $5.12 billion from $4.67 billion a year earlier.

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

☆ Strategists slash U.S. yield view again despite Fed's inflation focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yields on U.S. 2-year Treasury notes have plunged over 100 basis points following the failure of some regional U.S. banks last month. But markets are pricing for a series of interest rate cuts starting just two months later, underscoring an exceptionally large divergence from the central bank's own view. That recent downward trend in yields is forecast to continue further, according to the April 5-12 poll of over 60 bond strategists. However, in the coming three months, yields on both 2-year and 10-year notes were expected to rise 20 and 25 basis points, respectively, before resuming their fall. Relatively high volatility has also been a driver of yield forecasts over the past few months.

☆ Dollar's crown to slip as peers catch up in rates race: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Median forecasts in the March 31-April 4 poll of 90 foreign exchange strategists showed the dollar ceding ground to all major currencies in a year. "Our take on the dollar is that we continue to look for further weakness over the next three to six months. With the dollar's expected retreat, the European single currency is finding its spot in the sun after briefly crossing below parity on lagging rate expectations in 2022. The safe-haven currency, which hit 32-year lows in 2022 again on rate differentials, was forecast to recoup that loss over the forecast horizon. Indeed, the 12-month median view for nearly all of the major currencies surveyed was identical with the March poll.

☆ S&P, Nasdaq futures fall on inflation worries after OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures mixed: Dow up 0.36%, S&P down 0.10%, Nasdaq down 0.64%April 3 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Monday as soaring oil prices renewed worries of persistent inflationary pressures, while energy stocks surged at the start of the week. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, threatening an immediate rise in prices. Oil prices jumped 5.4% on Monday, propelling over 3% gains in energy firms such as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Chevron Corp (CVX.N) in premarket trade. ET, Dow e-minis were up 119 points, or 0.36%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 84.5 points, or 0.64%. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook on economic outlook and monetary policy are also expected later on Monday.

Among major S&P 500 sectors, technology (.SPLRCT) has quarterly gains of about 20%, while the financials index (.SPSY) is set for its worst quarter since June. A closely watched Commerce Department report on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in February, while inflation also cooled. Limiting gains, Micron Technology (MU.O) dropped 2.7% after news that China was set to review the chipmaker's products sold in the country. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 5.73-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.76-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 14 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 57 new highs and 98 new lows.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE growth slowsVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures up: Dow 0.37%, S&P 0.28%, Nasdaq 0.14%March 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Friday after data showed inflation slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. Traders' bets of a 25-basis-point rate hike in May stand at 55.5%, with odds of a pause at 44.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. "But in terms of the Fed's calculus, they'll have to have more confirmation that disinflation is really taking hold beyond just a few data points here and there." U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a session low of 3.534% after the data. The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE data due at 8:30 am ETVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures mixed: Dow up 0.23%, S&P up 0.19%, Nasdaq flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Friday as investors awaited inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release the February reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.01%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asian shares ride high in Q1 but steel for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also gained 1%，as inflation data for the capital city Tokyo highlighted broadening price pressures. A slower than expected decline in German inflation has raised the stakes for U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, tracked by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy, later in the day. Economists are expecting the PCE index to ease to 0.4% in February from January when it rose 0.6%. "With central banks still mindful of inflation risks, interest rates will stay at their peaks for several months. That compared with an overwhelming bet on a 25 basis point hike a month ago before the banking volatility started.

☆ Futures muted as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow flat, S&P up 0.04%, Nasdaq down 0.02%March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were flat on Friday as investors steered clear of big bets ahead of crucial inflation data, amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also due later in the day. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled to speak later on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were flat, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.02%.

☆ 'Nationalizing bond markets' left central banks unprepared for inflation, top HSBC economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Part of the problem with QE was the fact that you're basically nationalizing bond markets. Bond markets have a very very useful role to play when you've got inflation, which is they're an early warning indicator," King told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick. Central banks around the world have hiked interest rates aggressively over the past year in a bid to rein in soaring inflation, after a decade of loose financial conditions. The swift rise in interest rates has intensified concerns about a potential recession and exposed flaws in the banking system that have led to the collapse of several regional U.S. banks . The prolonged period of loose monetary policy after the global financial crisis equated to central banks "nationalizing bond markets," and meant policymakers were slow off the mark in containing inflation over the past two years, according to HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King.

Macro and trend-following hedge funds dropped 3.2% this month through March 29, while algorithmic commodity trading advisor funds (CTAs) dove 6.8%. Hedge fund strategies based around macroeconomic ideas like those run by Rokos, DG Parters and EDL Capital fund posted negative performances in March, sources and bank data said. Trend-following hedge funds, which trade on systematically programmed ideas, also posted big losses. The bank decided not to change clients' borrowing limits, but it has increased diligence oversight on the hedge fund exposure, including new clients, the broker said. Trend-following funds tend to bail quickly on trades that stop working, said a pension fund director who invests in hedge funds.

☆ Futures rise as bank fears ebb, focus shifts to key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will now watch out for February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - that is due on Friday for further clues on the central bank's rate-hike trajectory. Traders' bets are still tilted towards a pause in rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected soon after that. Final estimates for quarterly U.S. economic growth are expected to confirm gross domestic product likely remained unchanged at 2.7% in the fourth quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 145 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15.75 points, or 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.25%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall Street jumps with rosy outlooks from companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Micron (MU.O) shares shot up 7.2%, boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and leading gains in the PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX), which closed 3.3% higher. Lululemon surges after strong reoprtThe bulk of S&P 500 companies begin reporting on the first quarter in mid-April. On Monday, regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares scooped up the assets of Silicon Valley Bank. Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, told Congress the scope of blame for Silicon Valley Bank's failure stretches across bank executives. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 135 new lows.

Two-year yields have risen from a seven-month intraday low of 3.555% last Friday as Treasuries rallied on safe-haven buying. "Some of the banks there were in the spotlight, their stock prices are starting to at least stabilize," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. The U.S. regional KBW bank index (.BKX) has tumbled about 25% this month, but has gained about 3.8% this week as tensions eased. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy from a number of major central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank. Oil edged lower in choppy trading as investors looked to pocket profits from two straight days of gains, and as markets debated supply tightness.

Larger peers Bank of America (BAC.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) rose between 0.7% and 1%. "Markets are calmer as the tension of the banking situation is lessening. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to its lowest since March 9, reflecting easing investor anxiety. ET, Dow e-minis were up 216 points, or 0.66%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.81%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 114.25 points, or 0.9%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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