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☆ Concerns about inflation peak as Americans struggle to shake off a 'vibecession'
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Concerns about inflation and interest rates are now at a two-year high, according to a recent report by credit reporting agency TransUnion. Although Americans have seen their buying power rise amid cooling inflationary data and a strong job market, 84% of all adults still rank inflation among their top concerns, followed by housing prices and interest rates, TransUnion's consumer pulse study found. "There continues to be positive progress against bringing down inflation," said Charlie Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion. Relief for those hardest hitMeanwhile, the Federal Reserve's string of 11 rate hikes since 2022, coupled with higher inflation, have hit working-class Americans particularly hard. Many of these households have exhausted their savings and are now increasingly leaning on credit cards to make ends meet.

Persons: Charlie Wise, Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's, that's, Chang Organizations: TransUnion, CNBC

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Amazon, IBM, Micron, Apple, Tesla, Broadcom, Planet Fitness, UnitedHealth & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Morgan Stanley initiates Ryder System as overweight Morgan Stanley said the transformation is underway for the transport company. " Morgan Stanley names UnitedHealth a top pick Morgan Stanley said the health-care company is compelling. "With this note, we are adjusting our Top Pick to UNH (from CI), where its relative share price performance presents an opportunity in our view." Morgan Stanley initiates Elevance Health as overweight Morgan Stanley called out Elevance Health's earnings power as it initiated coverage of the stock. " Melius reiterates Apple as buy Melius raised its price target on Apple to $260 per share from $227.

Persons: Jefferies, kingmaker, CARR, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Ryder, UnitedHealth, Bernstein, Tesla, TD Cowen, TD, it's, Melius, BEV, Eli Lilly, LLY Organizations: Nvidia, Citi, Micron, Carrier, UBS, Anheuser, Busch InBev, IBM, Bank of America, Broadcom, VMWare, CI, Elevance Health, Cherniere Energy, Cheniere Energy Inc, Ally, Barclays, Apple, " Bank of America, Alexa, Reuters, China, JPMorgan, Royal Locations: LLY, Royal Caribbean

☆ Stock market today: US stocks edge lower as AI-fueled tech rally stalls
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks moved slightly lower on Friday following a sharp reversal in tech stocks on Thursday. AdvertisementThe AI-fueled tech rally showed signs of exhaustion, with the stalwart Nvidia experiencing a near 7% swing in Thursday's trading session, rising as much as 3% before it finished the day lower by 3.5%. Other AI tech darlings saw sharp reversals and moved lower on Thursday, with those losses spilling over into Friday's trading session. There is rising inventory and a perceived drop in traffic that is recessionary in its level," GlobalData TS Lombard said on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:AdvertisementHere's what else is going on today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: GlobalData, Lombard Organizations: Nvidia, Dell, Broadcom, Micro, Federal Reserve Locations: Here's

☆ The creator of a famed recession indicator says the Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates now
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the near term is a risky gamble that could drive the US towards a recession, Claudia Sahm told CNBC. "But it's a real risk, and I do not understand why the Fed is pushing that risk. At current readings, that likely means just one rate cut in 2024, the Fed said. For this reason, Sahm told CNBC that the Fed should start a gradual cutting cycle now, and take the economy off a path that could require more severe action if not addressed. Markets, meanwhile, remain convinced that the Fed will follow with more than just one cut.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, I'm, Sahm, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business

☆ The Fed's first rate cut could come next month if the labor market slows
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in July to prevent a recession. Markets are only pricing in a 10% chance of an interest rate cut in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementMarkets may think it's a long-shot, but the Federal Reserve could make its first interest rate cut in July as recessionary cracks start to form in the economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are only pricing in a 10% chance of an interest rate cut at the July policy meeting, with most market participants expecting the first interest rate cut to happen in either September of November. And with recent data showing cracks forming in the housing and labor markets, that means a rate cut will happen sooner than most expect.

Persons: —, Steven Blitz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, Fed

☆ America's 'cardboard-box recession' is finally over, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The cardboard box recession is ending, as packaging prices climb, Bank of America says. This recession indicator flashed last year when demand for packaging fell to 2009 lows. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPackaging prices are poised for a rebound, spelling the end for America's cardboard box recession, Bank of America said. When last year's demand for cardboard packaging dropped to 2009 lows, analysts feared it meant a major consumer spending pullback.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Business

☆ Gold eyes first weekly gain in four on cooling U.S. inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged up on Friday and were on course for their first weekly gain in four, as U.S. economic data indicated a softening of price pressures, fueling optimism that a rate cut from the Federal Reserve might be forthcoming. Gold prices edged up on Friday and were on course for their first weekly gain in four, as U.S. economic data indicated a softening of price pressures, fueling optimism that a rate cut from the Federal Reserve might be forthcoming. Spot gold as up 0.2% at $2,306.89 per ounce, as of 0334 GMT. "The best recipe for gold would be continued weakness in inflation, then that recessionary appeal of gold will start to come through as a bit of an extension of expectations of potential rate cuts this year." Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, another indication that inflation was subsiding after surging in the first quarter.

Persons: Kyle Rodda Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders

☆ 3 catalysts could spark a 10% sell-off in the stock market this summer, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The May jobs report could spark a bearish narrative change in the stock market. AdvertisementA 10% sell-off in the stock market is possible this summer after a massive year-to-date rally, according to JPMorgan. "The combination of earnings season stock performance and narrowing market breadth points to a market that needs a new set of catalysts and/or reassurance about the prevailing market narrative," JPMorgan said. "Momentum unwind"The bulk of the stock market's recent gains have been driven by momentum, with tech stocks leading the advance. AdvertisementJPMorgan said a jobs report below 50,000 to 75,000 range or above the 250,000 to 300,000 range could spark a narrative change and hurt stock prices.

Persons: — Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

☆ We're in a 'vibecession,' experts say. Here's how to invest accordingly
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

And yet, consumer sentiment recently sank to a six-month low. That disconnect is what Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's chair of global research, calls a "vibecession." On the flip side, the combination of higher interest rates and inflation have hit working-class Americans particularly hard. Many of these households have exhausted their savings and are now leaning on credit cards to make ends meet. "Every client we've been talking to over the last several months has brought up the concern of, they're worried about inflation, worried they can't spend money," Garcia said.

Persons: Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's, Chang, that's, Courtney Garcia, they're, Garcia Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Payne Capital Management Locations: U.S

☆ Baby boomers have been America's secret weapon for fending off recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewTalks of a looming recession are flaring across Wall Street, but the savings war chest of baby boomers has staved off a US downturn. AdvertisementInstead, only the goods sector has shown signs of a growth recession, Yardeni said. But that's after the lockdown's hard-to-beat buying spree; today, goods spending remains at a record high when adjusted for inflation. Related storiesBut to Yardeni, they're the reason no consumer recession has appeared in the past two years, he separately wrote in April:"The Baby Boomers watched a lot of 'Star Trek' during the 1960s. AdvertisementMeanwhile, the baby boomer focus on service spending may also have deformed indicators, making things look gloomier than they are.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Financial Times, Boomers

☆ Most Americans falsely think the U.S. is in recession, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

More than half of Americans think the United States is in an economic recession, although gross domestic product has been increasing for the past several years. According to a new Guardian/Harris poll, 56% of respondents said they believe the U.S. is in a recession and 58% say that President Joe Biden is responsible for what they see as an economic downturn. A recession is an extended period of economic decline, usually designated when GDP has declined for two or more consecutive fiscal quarters. U.S. GDP growth has been outpacing that of other developed nations. The Guardian/Harris poll is yet another example of an ongoing gap between economic data and economic feelings that has nagged the Biden administration in recent months.

Persons: Kristen Visbal, Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, NBC's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Guardian Locations: New York City, United States, U.S, ., America

☆ A former Bridgewater executive shares his 2 highest-conviction trades right now — and breaks down why the US labor market remains exceptionally strong despite apparent signs of weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Another common worry among investors is the risk that elevated interest rates pose to the labor market and overall economy. AdvertisementThat difference is that prior cycles have been driven by lending, Elliott said. Lending growth fueled economic expansions and drops in lending led to economic contractions. He said it can act as a hedge against the Fed cutting rates too early with the economy still strong. AdvertisementInvestors can gain exposure to gold through funds like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

Persons: St, Louis, Bob Elliott, Elliott, Louis Fed, It's Organizations: Service, Unlimited Funds, Bridgewater Associates, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trust

☆ From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession, here's a roundup of recent high-profile bear forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.

Persons: —, they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ Behind America's divided economy: Booming luxury travel and a jump in 'relief' loans
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

First-class travel has exhibited special strength, though management noted that can be tied in part to a resurgence of business trips. People taking these loans are more likely to be lower-income with no more than a high school diploma, Lanier said. Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFrozen food maker Tyson Foods has seen consumers shifting more to eating at home than the quick-service restaurants it supplies. It's also important to remember that lower-income Americans were feeling financial pressures before the pandemic, said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. Airbnb touted interest in travel to events like the Paris Olympics and the European Cup in Germany this summer.

Persons: there's, It's, Christophe Le Caillec, underscoring, Blair Lanier, Lanier, McDonald's, Tyson, Daniel Acker, Tyson Foods, Stanley Black, Decker, Jane Fraser, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Fraser, Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler, Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Schipper, Eric Thayer, We've, Cliff Pemble Organizations: TSN, American Express, Federal Reserve, CNBC, People, University of Michigan, San Francisco Federal Reserve, U.S, PepsiCo, Bloomberg, Getty, Tyson, Management, Adobe Analytics, Furniture, Citigroup, University of St, Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Caribbean . Booking Holdings, Paris Olympics, European, Ticketmaster, Cedar Fair, Flags, Wayfair, Garmin Locations: America, U.S, Minnesota, New York, Germany, Valencia , California

☆ A 'proper' economic downturn is looming, which could trigger steep rate cuts as soon as this year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV that a sharper Fed pivot is ahead. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementMarkets are right to price in a Federal Reserve policy pivot but should brace for a rate-cutting cycle that's sharper than expected, economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV. "We believe we are heading into a proper downturn that will require a proper easing cycle." So we're not exiting the period in which rate hikes become really impactful in the economy," she said.

Persons: Frances Donald, —, Donald, We're, Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Manulife Investment Management

☆ A soft landing will be tough to achieve, and inflation has hit lower-income Americans hard, Citi CEO Jane Fraser says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A "soft landing" scenario is unlikely for the US economy, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "We're seeing a much more cautious low-income consumer," Fraser said. AdvertisementIt's going to be tough for the US to stick an economic soft landing, and rampant inflation is hitting lower-income Americans hard, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "It's hard to get a soft landing," Fraser told CNBC on Monday. Yet, Fraser cautioned against declaring a soft landing was a done deal.

Persons: Jane Fraser, Fraser, —, Gary Shilling, Roukaya Ibrahim Organizations: Citi, Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve

☆ The US will see a recession by year-end that could spark a 30% drop in the stock market, legendary forecaster Gary Shilling says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury

☆ The US may already be in recession as job cuts accelerate, research CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may already be mired in recession, Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. Downside labor revisions and rising job losses indicate a downturn has hit, the QI Research CEO said. AdvertisementThe US is already mired in recessionary downturn, and rising job losses prove it, veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementBy that standard, the rule was triggered in October of last year, according to recently published labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023, indicating job losses of 192,000. Other analysts have also projected rising recession risk, hand-in-hand with a labor market fallout.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, there's, it's, Booth, Goldman Sachs, payrolls, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Downside, QI, Service, Bloomberg, Fox Business

☆ A 32-year market vet warns underlying weakness in the labor market is on the verge of showing up in monthly jobs data — and shares an ominous chart showing why the S&P 500 could be set to fall more th
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent

☆ BP's EV charging arm cuts jobs, reduces global ambitions: Reuters
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

EV charging, however, remains one of BP's key growth engines. The changes at BP Pulse are "a step towards ensuring that we can execute our goals with even greater precision and effectiveness". BP Pulse has also stepped away from several bets it made since launching its energy transition strategy under previous group CEO Bernard Looney in 2020. BP last May also shut down its home EV charging business. The company says it expects returns from its EV charging and convenience stores operations to exceed 15% and create $1.5 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by 2025.

Persons: Murray, Tesla, Bernard Looney, Auchincloss Organizations: BP, Reuters, EV Locations: United States, Britain, Germany, China

☆ These 5 recession indicators have escaped the danger zone after flashing economic red flags
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board

☆ 'The Fed has made two major mistakes in its history,' expert says. Here’s how those impact policy today
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building on March 20, 2024 in Washington, DC. Slowly but surely, recessionary talk is dying down and confidence in the Federal Reserve is picking up. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that with the economy still growing at a healthy pace and unemployment below 4%, the Fed can take a more measured approach when loosening monetary policy. More from Personal Finance:Here's when the Fed is likely to start cutting interest ratesNearly half of young adults have 'money dysmorphia'Deflation: Here's where prices fellMonetary policy is a balancing act, Higgins explained. At least, that is how it has played out in the past, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank, Federal Reserve, Fund, Finance Locations: Washington ,

☆ Activist Oasis may turn to a preferred playbook to help build value at Greencore
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Kenneth Squire | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Business: Greencore Group is an Ireland-based manufacturer of convenience foods. Premier Foods has generated a total return of nearly 300%, while Greencore is down 41.5% in that time. It is hard to believe there is another investor more qualified to create shareholder value at Greencore than Oasis. In addition, at The Restaurant Group and Premier, Oasis pushed for the sale of non-core assets, which is consistent with streamlining operations and creating shareholder value. One Greencore director who Oasis knows well is Alastair Murray, the former CFO and once-interim CEO of Premier Foods.

Persons: Seth Fischer, Greencore, Daniel Wosner, Oasis, Gavin Darby, Darby, Wosner, Wosner's reappointment, Dalton Philips, Catherine Gubbins, Alastair Murray, Murray, Ken Squire Organizations: Greencore, Convenience Foods, Ireland, Oasis Management, Oasis, Premier Foods, Apollo, Premier, Group, 13D Locations: Ireland, United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Austin, Cayman Islands, Asia, Europe

☆ A 35-year investing veteran explains how to accelerate retirement returns that beat the S&P 500 by transferring part of an IRA into a real estate fund. Plus, the 3 main risks.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investing without owningLike real-estate investment trusts (REITs), real-estate funds provide exposure to the tangible asset class without owning and managing property. Investing directly through a private real-estate fund would take a few extra steps. The process requires an investor to identify a real-estate fund of interest. Once that's completed, funds from the retirement account are directly transferred into the real-estate fund. It's also important to read the terms of each fund; some may have added costs for repairs, expenses, and maintenance, which your IRA funds would cover.

Persons: Paul Daneshrad, Daneshrad, He's, we're, Dow, there's, Roth, that's, Gary Diamond, Fishman, Diamond, It's Organizations: Starpoint, Business, Federal, CPA

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