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☆ Opinion | The Economist Who Predicted What Could Well Be the Next Recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The economist and market strategist David Rosenberg took a lot of heat for predicting that the Federal Reserve’s big increase in interest rates would tip the U.S. economy into recession. “I spent most of the past year being absolutely beaten up,” he told me last week. “I had email from clients that you would not believe, and many cancellations.”The latest economic data, including a sharp slowdown in job growth in July, is indicating that Rosenberg may well have been right all along. I asked him if he feels vindicated. Stocks also slumped in Europe and were off to a bad start in the United States on Monday as I was finishing this newsletter.

Persons: David Rosenberg, ”, “, Rosenberg, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

☆ Cindy Ngamba wins first ever medal for Refugee Olympic Team
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-04 | by ( Issy Ronald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —The Olympic Games is bound up with questions of nationality, with crowds waving a kaleidoscopic collage of different flags and national anthems playing for every gold medal winner. Except it was the Refugee Olympic Team crest that Ngamba held up as she celebrated the historic achievement of becoming their first ever medal-winning athlete after winning her women’s middleweight quarterfinal and guaranteeing herself a place on the podium. Ngamba was born in Cameroon and moved to the UK aged 11, where she now trains, but represents the Refugee Olympic Team, which has allowed refugee athletes to compete at the Games since 2016. Peter Cziborra/Reuters“I’m so grateful,” Ngamba told Eurosport after her fight. “I’m over the moon, I had my refugee team, the crowd, France and Paris team, and everyone in my family to come and support me.

Persons: Cindy Ngamba, France’s Davina Michel, Ngamba, Michel, Peter Cziborra, Reuters “, ” Ngamba, “, ”, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Refugee, Refugee Olympic, Games, Reuters, Eurosport, Paris, Team, Olympic Team, Olympics Locations: Cameroon, France, London

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Persons: Read, Merrill, Miles you've, Miles you’ve, Miles, There’s, Uber, Wiley, Julie Mehretu, Peacock, Uber Cash, Chase, Cardholders, cardholders, you've, you'll, You'll, It's, Peter Rothbart, he's, Peter, Angela Fung Organizations: FICO's, Chase Travel, Chase, Sapphire, Hotel, FDIC, Bank of America, Bank of America's, of America, Bank of America Travel Center, TSA, Travel Insurance, Discover's, Discover . Discover, Capital, One, Premier, Express, American Express, Hilton, Marriott, Saks, Entertainment, Disney, ESPN, The New York Times, Street, American, Walmart, Global, Saks Fifth, Saks Fifth Avenue, Business, Finance, TSA PreCheck, PreCheck, Resorts Locations: Hulu, Wells, Seattle , Washington, Vegas, Pacific

☆ Opinion | Joe Manchin Is Forcing an Agonizing Trade-Off on Climate Change
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This week Senator Joe Manchin, independent from West Virginia, called a committee vote on a bill to speed up approval of energy projects that puts environmentalists in a tough spot. The bill boosts solar and wind by making it easier to build transmission lines to carry green power from where it’s generated to where it’s needed. But it also boosts fossil fuels by opening public lands and waters to oil and gas leasing, and makes it easier to export liquefied natural gas. The fight against climate change depends on the choices that humans make, and this vote was one of the more important choices of the year. On the other hand, from what I know of the legislation, I think I would have been a “nay.” It’s far too friendly to fossil fuels.

Persons: Joe Manchin Organizations: Republicans Locations: West Virginia

☆ Opinion | No, Wall Street, The Treasury Isn’t Rigging the Economy for Democrats
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

There’s a story going around Wall Street that the Treasury Department is trying to help Democratic candidates in November by how it issues debt. I don’t buy it. Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager who has raised money for Donald Trump’s campaign, told me last week that he thinks Janet Yellen, the current Treasury secretary, is an “apparatchik” for the White House whose behavior is “appalling.”Nouriel Roubini, a well-known economist who describes himself as a lifelong Democrat, isn’t as harsh as Bessent, but he told me he thinks the Treasury Department is inappropriately engaging in a kind of monetary policy, which is the purview of the Federal Reserve. “The Fed is in charge of managing the business cycle,” he said. “Treasury doesn’t have that mandate.”I’ll explain why I think Bessent, Roubini and others are barking up the wrong tree, but first I’ll lay out their argument.

Persons: Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s, Janet Yellen, ”, Nouriel, isn’t Organizations: Treasury Department, Democratic, White, Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Roubini

☆ Opinion | Kamala Harris Needs a 3 P.M. Agenda
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Vice President Kamala Harris has what she used to call a 3 a.m. agenda. To be an effective president, she’ll need to add a 3 p.m. agenda. When Harris was running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2019, she put out a television ad that was pretty effective. She described how her mother, after putting the girls to bed, “would sit up trying to figure out how to make it all work,” presumably sometimes until 3 in the morning. “Because,” she intoned, “you’ve waited long enough to get a good night’s sleep.”At the time, Harris was positioning herself as a liberal in an election that had the Democrats moving well to the left.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, ”, Trump, “ you’ve, Joe Biden, leftward, Bernie Sanders of, Elizabeth Warren of Organizations: Democratic Locations: Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Its price target implies more than 30% upside. Analyst Stephen Bersey also slashed his price target for the stock to $302 from $388. The financial firm reiterated its overweight on the technology titan and Magnificent Seven member and increased its price target to $485 from $465. The bank upgraded shares of the doughnut maker to buy from hold, while standing by its target price of $14. The bank upgraded the shoe company to overweight from equal weight and raised its price target to $80 from $60.

Persons: CrowdStrike, Morgan Stanley, Stephen Bersey, Bersey, Lisa Kailai Han, Piper Sandler, Brent Bracelin, Bracelin, — Lisa Kailai Han, Peter Christiansen, Christiansen, Sorabh Daga, McDonald's, Daga, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, HSBC, HSBC downgrades CrowdStrike, Guggenheim, Microsoft, Microsoft Cloud, Citi Locations: CrowdStrike, U.S, Monday's

☆ The Paris Olympics are nice, but agents and brands are already prepping for an even bigger prize: Los Angeles in 2028
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Ashley Rodriguez | Tiara White | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe Olympic Games in Paris hasn't even begun, but talent agents are already looking to the Los Angeles Games in 2028. Savvy agents are leveraging the Paris Games — a huge moment in their own right — to snag fresh, breakout talent and negotiate long-term commercial deals with the expectation that the Los Angeles Games will draw even more demand from brands that want to work with athletes. More talent agencies have also expanded into working with Olympic athletes. Crane said the Los Angeles Games are a big focus for the firm. "Everything is a little more amplified in Los Angeles, and there's going to be a lot of media and press.

Persons: —, Paris hasn't, WME, Quincy Wilson, Mark Ervin, Quincy, Peter Carlisle, Anna Hall, who's, Octagon, Carlisle, Hezly Rivera, Harry Poole, Aly Raisman, Poole, Ervin, there's, James Crane, Buchwald, Crane, it's Organizations: Service, Los Angeles Games, Paris Games, Business, Olympic, Summer Games, ", LA, Summer, Paris, Excel Sports Management, Brands, US, Olympics Locations: Paris, LA28, Los Angeles, London, Tokyo

☆ Opinion | Which Country Will Win the Paris Olympics? Don’t Just Count Medals.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

No nation officially wins the Olympics, but that doesn’t stop journalists and others from trying to keep score by counting gold, silver and bronze medals. The raw medal count overly favors populous nations, while ranking nations by medals per capita overly favors small nations that win one, two or a few medals, possibly by fluke. The problem, as I said, is that it’s not reliable when it comes to the performance of very small nations. For example, rural counties dominate the list of counties with the highest kidney cancer rates, which seems like a good reason to rush funding to rural health authorities. But guess what — rural counties also dominate the list of counties with the lowest kidney cancer rates.

Persons: Pete Pfitzinger Organizations: Tokyo Games Locations: San Marino, Bermuda, Grenada

☆ Special counsel Jack Smith appeals dismissal of Trump classified documents case
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Special counsel Jack Smith on Wednesday filed a notice appealing the stunning decision earlier this week by Florida court federal Judge Aileen Cannon that dismissed the criminal classified documents case against former President Donald Trump. Smith's appeal, which was expected, will be heard in the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta, which reviews cases arising from Florida federal courts. Peter Carr, a spokesman for Smith, said Wednesday, "We have no comment beyond the filing itself at this time." The Democrat-led Justice Department should drop these politically motivated, election interference efforts against President Trump immediately." The appeal is likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court, regardless of how the 11th Circuit appeals court rules.

Persons: Jack Smith, Donald Trump, Smith, Aileen Cannon, Cannon, Trump, Peter Carr, Carr, Steven Cheung, Joe Biden Organizations: 11th Circuit U.S, Trump, U.S . Constitution, White, Witch, Democrat, Department, U.S, Supreme, Republican, Washington , D.C, U.S . Senate, Smith's Locations: Washington , U.S, Florida, Atlanta, U.S ., Lago, U.S, Washington ,, United States

☆ Lewis Hamilton takes ‘fairytale’ victory at home British Grand Prix
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Issy Ronald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Lewis Hamilton won his home race at the British Grand Prix on Sunday, battling to a thrilling, record-extending victory as the lead changed hands several times on a rain-slicked track at Silverstone. For Hamilton to win his last British Grand Prix with Mercedes – the team with whom he dominated the sport for so long – seemed like a “fairytale,” team principal Toto Wolff told broadcaster Sky Sports after the race. Lewis Hamilton celebrates on the podium after winning the British Grand Prix. “This is my last race here at the British Grand Prix with this team, so I wanted to win this so much for them. But both Mercedes cars ran wide off the track across the run-off shortly afterwards, allowing Norris to overtake Russell and then to accelerate past Hamilton too.

Persons: CNN — Lewis Hamilton, Hamilton, Jack, Max Verstappen, Red, Mercedes –, Toto Wolff, Lewis Hamilton, Peter Cziborra, ” “ It’s, ”, “ There’s, Mark Thompson, George Russell, McLaren’s Lando Norris, Russell, Norris, Verstappen Organizations: CNN, Prix, Sunday, Silverstone, Red Bull, Hamilton, Sky Sports, British, Getty Locations: British, Saudi, Hamilton, Silverstone

☆ Opinion | Chocolate Prices Have Spiked. Why Are Cocoa Farmers Still So Poor?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“I’m willing to do the job.” His literacy and English skills help him serve as a liaison between his fellow farmers and the government, which is the primary price-setter for cocoa beans in Ghana. The exorbitant prices paid for cocoa beans and chocolate products in the United States and other nations barely touch the lives of Frimpong and those around him. The poverty of cocoa farmers is sometimes seen as a moral failing of chocolate buyers or sellers, but above all it’s a market failure. In a healthy market, price spikes are self-correcting: When the price rises, production increases to take advantage of the extra profit opportunity. They don’t have the funds for long-term investment in new cacao trees, which are the source of cocoa beans, or for adequate fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and labor-intensive pruning.

Persons: Emmanuel Frimpong, couldn’t, “ I’m, ” Locations: Ghana, United States, Frimpong, Ivory Coast

☆ Opinion | One Way to Make Russia Pay for Ukraine? Take Its Money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

How far will nations go today in using economic sanctions to punish their enemies? I’m interested in the case of, once again, Russia. It appears that the United States is willing to hit Russia over its invasion of Ukraine a lot harder than the Europeans are. This week I interviewed Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, who is the department’s point person on economic sanctions. Adeyemo, who immigrated from Nigeria as a child with his family, has a law degree from Yale and a broad remit that includes national security as well as economic inequality.

Persons: Nicholas Mulder, I’m, Wally Adeyemo Organizations: Cornell, Yale Locations: British, Russia, United States, Ukraine, Nigeria

☆ Lanvin, Oldest French Fashion House, Names a New Designer
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Vanessa Friedman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A major vacancy in the fashion world has been filled. On Thursday, Lanvin, the oldest French couture house in continual existence, named Peter Copping its new artistic director, an appointment that indicates a potential return to pure designers after a period in which the buzz was focused on content creators. He has spent the last five years working behind the scenes as head of couture at Balenciaga, where he was instrumental in orchestrating the much celebrated return of couture to that house. (The announcement of his appointment at Lanvin came the day after Balenciaga’s latest couture show, attended by Nicole Kidman and Naomi Watts, among others.) Previously, he had been the handpicked heir to Oscar de la Renta before Mr. de la Renta’s death roiled his succession plans, and the head designer at Nina Ricci.

Persons: Lanvin, Peter Copping, “ Peter Copping’s, ” Siddhartha Shukla, Mr, Copping, Nicole Kidman, Naomi Watts, Oscar de la, de, Nina Ricci Locations: French, Lanvin, Balenciaga

☆ Job seekers are jumping through more hoops to get hired as power shifts back to employers
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Alexandra Bacon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewThe hiring process seems to have become increasingly complex in recent years, with job seekers facing new tests, more interviews, and months of waiting to hear back from prospective employers. Job seekers have been taking to social media to complain about jumping through various hiring hoops just to secure an entry-level job. He said that in recent years, the hiring process has slowed down as the number of interview rounds has increased: "It reflects a lack of understanding by employers about what they're actually looking for." Advertisement"Many interviews and job assessments now take place online, which means candidates need to adapt to virtual interactions and later demonstrate their skills remotely," she said. When job interviews started to be done on Zoom and managers had fewer opportunities to evaluate candidates, more employers began using cognitive and psychometric assessments as part of their hiring process.

Persons: —, Chris Abbass, Abbass, Peter Cappelli, Wharton, They've, Cappelli, Nikita Gupta, they're, Gupta Organizations: Service, Business, school's, Human Resources, Harvard Business, Big Tech

☆ Opinion | What Works for Golf Works for Life
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Please keep reading even if you don’t give a bogey about golf, because I’m going explain how the strategies that make someone a better golfer can help in other parts of life, such as personal finances. My main source for today’s newsletter is Mark Broadie, who has dual credentials that are more related to each other than you might expect. He’s both an expert on golf strategy and a professor at Columbia Business School specializing in security pricing, computational finance and programming for business research. Ten years ago, Broadie wrote a book, “Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy.” It’s not about how to square your shoulders or adjust your grip on the club. It’s insight gained from dynamic programming, which is a tool that’s extensively used by economists, for example in calculating the optimal saving rate.

Persons: Rory McIlroy, I’m, Mark Broadie, Broadie, ” It’s Organizations: Northern, U.S, Columbia Business School Locations: Northern Ireland

☆ Opinion | Sure, Knowledge Is Power, but Ignorance Is Underrated
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

We crave knowledge. Only ostriches stick their heads in the sand. We tell one another that ignorance is bliss. We even structure our societies to exclude knowledge for certain purposes. For 17 years, the military’s policy on homosexuality was “Don’t ask, don’t tell.” More recently, many colleges stopped asking for SAT and ACT scores, although some have started asking for them again.

Persons: ”, “ Organizations: Employers, ACT

☆ Opinion | Effective Altruism Is Flawed. But What’s the Alternative?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

You don’t hear so much about effective altruism now that one of its most famous exponents, Sam Bankman-Fried, was found guilty of stealing $8 billion from customers of his cryptocurrency exchange. But if you read this newsletter, you might be the kind of person who can’t help but be intrigued by effective altruism. Effective altruism is a new movement inspired by philosophers (including Peter Singer and William MacAskill) and embraced by Silicon Valley engineers who pride themselves on taking a logical, data-driven approach to life. Last week I talked with people who believe in effective altruism and others who don’t. Is it egotistical or merely sensible to demand proof that our money is being put to good use?

Persons: Sam Bankman, ” That’s, Dustin Moskovitz, Peter Singer, William MacAskill Organizations: Open, Facebook, Wall Street Journal, Silicon

☆ A plane disappeared in 1971 and experts believe they’ve found it in Lake Champlain
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Kaila Nichols | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The crash site was never found, but over the years she held out hope it would be uncovered, steadily accumulating newspaper clippings and documents related to the case. There was no mayday or communication from the jet, Kozak says. Courtesy Garry KozakKozak first learned of the plane crash from a friend in the 1980s. Now that the crash site was found, the National Transportation Safety Board will make its evaluation to confirm it’s the right aircraft. While the crash site may have been found, it’s important to the passengers’ children the next generation also knows about their fathers.

Persons: Kristina Nikita Coffey, Barbara Nikitas, searcher, George Nikita, Garry, ” Nikitas, Nikita Coffey, “, ”, “ I’ve, Garry Kozak, Kozak, Donald Myers, Robert R, Williams, Frank B, Wilder, Kirby Windsor ., Garry Kozak Kozak, ” Kozak, I’ve, Frank K, ” Wilder, Nikitas, Charles C, Robert Williams, III, ” Williams, That’s, “ It’s, it’s, ” Nikita Coffey, Peter C, Knudson Organizations: CNN, National Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, NTSB Locations: Lake Champlain, Vermont, Burlington , Vermont, Providence , Rhode Island, Juniper, Burlington

☆ Mavericks obliterate Celtics by historic margin in Game 4 to avoid NBA Finals sweep
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Joe Vardon | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

The 38-point margin of victory is the third-largest in NBA Finals history. Advertisement“We had to play our A game — it was this or we go on vacation,” Dallas coach Jason Kidd said. The Mavericks trail 3-1, and no team has ever come back to win an NBA playoff series after losing the first three games (0-for-156; 0-for-14 in the finals). Only three halftime deficits are larger than those 26 points in the history of the NBA finals. Do it the next one.”Dereck Lively II was huge off the bench for Dallas in the Game 4 win!

Persons: Luka Dončić, ” Dallas, Jason Kidd, ”, ake Organizations: DALLAS, Dallas Mavericks, NBA, Dallas, Mavericks, Boston Celtics, LUKA DONCIC 🔥 Locations: lier

☆ The Line in Neom is a 'completely ludicrous' design with no purpose, a Middle East-focused professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Beatrice Nolan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Line — a part of Neom that comprises two mirrored skyscrapers — is one of the most famous regions of the planned megacity. Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, called plans for The Line "completely ludicrous." "The Line is a project that is not sustainable; it's a completely ludicrous megaproject that was never realizable because of the sheer cost of it," he told Business Insider. Executives working on Neom reportedly have dismissed the official Suadi figure of $500 billion as unrealistically low. "The world has never seen anything like The Line," Krieg said.

Persons: —, Andreas Krieg, Krieg, Neom, Peter Cook Organizations: Service, Business, Institute of Middle Eastern, King's College London, Bloomberg, Wall Street, Architects Locations: Neom, Saudi, Gulf, British

☆ Opinion | Larry Summers Isn’t Second-Guessing the Government on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Interest payments aren’t counted in the inflation rate. I get lots of mail from people saying the absence of interest rates from the Consumer Price Index seems like sleight of hand by the government, the economics profession or both. So I probably won’t win a lot of friends by saying that I think the way the government economists do things is correct. But when they’re right, they’re right. I’ll grant that higher interest payments do feel just as inflationary as higher prices for ice cream, bowling balls and haircuts.

Persons: Lawrence Summers Organizations: Consumer, Treasury, Harvard

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday to talk about interest rates, which many voters are really frustrated about. People are saying high rates make it hard to buy a home or car or deal with debts. We eventually need to get into the underlying economics — why are interest rates high, and will they stay there? But first, on how interest rates influence people’s views, we need to deal with an odd aspect of the situation. High interest rates are, indeed, a burden on some Americans, especially first-time home buyers.

Persons: Peter Coy, Paul, we’ve, They’re, they’re, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Krugman, Peter Organizations: Fed, University of Michigan, Biden

☆ What to do if you think you're underpaid
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Charlotte Morabito | In Charlottemorabito | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It never occurred to me until that conversation that I was severely underpaid." She said she didn't think to negotiate her salary when she received the job offer. "The term underpaid shouldn't be used to compare you to a colleague," said Sho Dewan, career expert and founder of Workhap. One option if you suspect you're being underpaid is to request a salary adjustment from your employer. This is where that market research comes in handy, along with highlights from your performance review.

Persons: Kelly Harry, Harry, Maddie Machado, It's, Peter Cappelli, Sho Dewan, there's, Machado, Dewan, Henry, " Machado, you've, Cappelli, doesn't Organizations: CNBC, Finance, Workers, Research Center, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Human Resources, Pew Research Center Locations: New York City, U.S

Recently graduated and struggling to find a job? You are not alone. In this audio essay, the Opinion economics writer Peter Coy explores why the class of 2024 is in a job slump, despite a low unemployment rate. He talks to a recent graduate, John York, about his challenges so far. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available within 24 hours of publication in the audio player above.)

Persons: Peter Coy, John York

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