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☆ Hurricanes are becoming more frequent, violent, and costly — plus they're hitting jobs and economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states. The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and economic growth, at least in the short term. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. "Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note.

Persons: Milton, Hurricane Helene, Helene, They're, Adam Smith, Jefferies, Harvey, Ian, Smith, Michael Mann, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Mann, Implan Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of Pennsylvania, Oxford Economics, Boeing, Milton, Potsdam Institute, Climate Impact Research Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Milton

☆ Dollar hovers near two-month peak as Fed easing bets ebb before inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The euro languished near its lowest since Aug. 13, while against the yen, the dollar hovered close to its strongest level since Aug. 15. The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93. The greenback eased 0.18% to 149.035 yen , but was not far from the overnight peak of 146.365.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, —, Rodda, Mary Daly Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, CPI, Francisco Fed, Traders, New Locations: U.S

☆ Why investors shouldn’t sweat this inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The latest inflation report came in slightly hotter than expected, knocking stock prices lower. But the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in November actually rose after the report came out. "CPI Inflation data was slightly on the hotter side, with commodity prices (outside) energy rising more than expected. The good news is that shelter inflation is pulling back and that's going to pull inflation lower. Investors received fresh labor market data Thursday as well, with initial jobless claims jumping by 33,000 to 258,000.

Persons: Dow Jones, Sonu Varghese, Goldman Sachs, Whitney Watson, Ian Lyngen, Stephen Tusa Organizations: CPI, Reserve, Carson, Investors, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, Honeywell

☆ Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON

Nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. "It was a very good report across every indicator in there," said Aaron Sojourner, a senior researcher at the W.E. As they barnstorm across battleground states, Harris and Trump paint dueling pictures of the U.S. labor market. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty ImagesThe jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with metrics that could potentially amount to the best economic upswing in decades. Following the jobs report blowout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out last week at a fresh all-time high of 42,352.75.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, payrolls, Dow, Aaron Sojourner, Harris, Trump, Jim Watson, I've, Mark Zandi, Biden, Clinton, Justin Wolfers, stoking Organizations: . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, Trump, CBS, Republican, Ryder Center for Health, Physical Education, Saginaw Valley State University, AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, chipmaker Micron Technology, Oracle Locations: U.S, Michigan, America, Saginaw, Saginaw , Michigan

☆ 10-year Treasury yield slightly higher following bumper jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed future moves from the Federal Reserve following Friday's bumper jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by under a basis point at 3.984%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was over 3 basis points higher at 3.968%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Treasury yields jumped on Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in an 91% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in November.

Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Alberto Musalem Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors Locations: Israel

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ No case for more jumbo rate cuts by the Fed, strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A television broadcasts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 18, 2024. Roche said the figures made the Fed's "jumbo interest rate cut look silly, populist and panicky." 1 is that [it gives the impression that] the economy is more fragile than it is ... and the economy is fine, thank you very much, and doesn't need jumbo rate cuts," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." And headline and core inflation will stay above the Fed target of 2%, so the case for aggressive rate cuts [is not there]," he said. "Yes there is a case for modest rate cuts, there is a case for 25 to 50 basis point cuts by January next year, but a case for 50 basis point cut at the next meeting just does not exist," Parker said.

Persons: Michael Nagle, David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, " Roche, Bob Parker, Parker, Dave Pierce Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Quantum, Federal, Market, International Capital Markets Association, Fed, Global, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Israel, U.S

☆ European markets look set to keep positive momentum in the new trading week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A stock trader looks at his monitors in the trading room of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Worries about a new coronavirus mutation in southern Africa have dealt a major blow to the German stock market. LONDON — European stocks are expected to start the new trading week on a positive note, buoyed by gains in Asia overnight and last Friday's rally on Wall Street. European stocks look set to continue the positive sentiment seen at the close of trade last week, with markets getting a boost from the latest U.S. jobs report that exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls data showed the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, ahead of the 150,000 estimated by economists polled by Dow Jones.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Dow Jones Organizations: Frankfurt Stock Exchange, LONDON, CAC, IG Locations: Africa, Asia, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: September’s shockingly good jobs report changes everything
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.

Persons: Angus Mordant, payrolls, David Royal, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: HK UBI, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Albany, Latham , New York, —, Thursday's

☆ Brace for stock-market volatility this week if inflation comes in hot after the September jobs report, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say. AdvertisementThe September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say. Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August. AdvertisementHowever, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say inflation is still a concern. The September jobs report blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000.

Persons: —, Brian Rose Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CPI, Fed, UBS

☆ How to hedge the overall market with several critical events just around the corner
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The upcoming month is a crucial time for the stock market, with a series of events that will make an impact. A quick peek at the history of S & P earnings reveals a couple of things. Note that the chart below depicts S & P earnings on a logarithmic scale —S & P earnings have grown by more than ninefold since January 1991. Over the past two years, S & P earnings have grown from ~$196 "per share" to about $204, an increase of 4%, but the S & P 500 Index has risen by more than 60% over the same period. Why not purchase a downside SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust put spread if these cause a pullback?

Persons: Low, we'll Organizations: U.S, Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ A recession next year is now even less likely following the blowout jobs report, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: September’s blockbuster jobs report changes the calculus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.

Persons: SPX, Paul Bersebach, payrolls, David Royal, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Medianews, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Lake Forest , CA, —, Thursday's

☆ 'I am getting increasingly queasy': JPMorgan's strategy chief on why investors should dial back risk amid market distortions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.

Persons: David Kelly, —, Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal

☆ 4 market experts share 10 places to invest your money after September's jobs data blew expectations out of the water
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.

Persons: —, we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5,751.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. Stocks rallied after data showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 254,000 jobs in September, far outpacing the forecasted gain of 150,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. Financials were the top sector in the S&P 500 during the session, surging 1.6% and closing at a record. The S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by 0.09%. Energy stocks have jumped this week as oil rallied, with the S&P 500 sector up 7%.

Persons: Stocks, payrolls, Dow Jones, ”, Michelle Cluver, Tesla, Financials, Wells Fargo, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Netflix, JPMorgan Chase, Dow, Israel . Energy Locations: U.S, East, Iran, Israel

Friday’s jobs report is expected to show another relatively healthy month of payroll gains, alongside a stable unemployment rate. At the moment, there is little light at the end of the tunnel for those job seekers. The unemployment rate was expected to be unchanged from August, at 4.2%. While the economy continues to add jobs at a steady clip, signs of ongoing labor market weakness have become unmistakable. Last week, the Conference Board’s closely watched consumer confidence survey fell by the largest amount since August 2021, driven largely by concerns about the labor market.

Persons: Dana M, Peterson, Guy Berger, ” Berger, Berger, precariousness Organizations: Labor Statistics, Conference, Conference Board, Glass, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ The September jobs report dashed hopes for another jumbo rate cut next month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe September jobs report offered good news all around — except to those expecting a second straight jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bucking estimates that it would stay unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts agree that September's blowout job numbers make an aggressive interest rate cut harder to justify. Advertisement"Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50 basis points?" Late last month, the bank predicted that investors would take on more risk if the unemployment rate hit 4.1% and if payrolls reached above 150,000.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Glen Smith, Morgan Stanley, payrolls, Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, GDS Wealth Management, Federal

☆ Interpreting the jobs data: No more half-point rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, nearly 100,000 more than economists expected. The unemployment rate, which was expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%. Wages also rose more than expected month over month. To be sure, the new data also has traders pricing a smaller quarter percentage point interest rate reduction at the central bank's November meeting. "Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)," said Tchir.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, Glen Smith, Lindsay Rosner, Ian Lyngen, Peter Tchir Organizations: Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Carson Group, GDS Wealth, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets, Academy Securities Locations: U.S

☆ Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.

Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S

☆ Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster September jobs report — and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.

Persons: —, Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked

☆ European markets poised for higher open; U.S. jobs report in view
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

A TV presenter gets ready for the daily reporting from the floor of the German share price index DAX at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 15, 2023. LONDON — European stocks were poised for a higher open Friday as traders continue to monitor the escalating conflict in the Middle East and look ahead to the latest U.S. jobs report. The FTSE 100 was seen opening up 7 points at 8,281, Germany's DAX 38 points higher at 19,029, France's CAC up 23 points at 7,489 and Italy's FTSE MIB 100 points higher at 32,171, according to IG data. It comes after the Stoxx 600 shed 1% Thursday as geopolitical tensions have contributed to a shaky start to October. Investors are looking ahead Friday to the September's payrolls report, with U.S. futures little changed overnight.

Persons: DAX, Germany's DAX Organizations: LONDON, France's CAC, Investors Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ Andersen: We're on track for a soft landing with payrolls at 150,000.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAndersen: We're on track for a soft landing with payrolls at 150,000. Mark Andersen, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at UBS expects a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with payrolls at 150,000, possibly leading to Fed rate cuts amid global concerns like port strikes and Middle East tensions.

Persons: Mark Andersen Organizations: Andersen, UBS Locations: U.S

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