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☆ Donald Trump Could Hardly Be More Wrong About Inflation - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Trump also described inflation as “a country buster” that destroyed Germany, presumably referring to the hyperinflation of 1923, which was the year of Adolf Hitler’s failed beer-hall putsch. Even for Trump, who loves to work up a crowd, that’s too far. President Biden does have an inflation problem, but it’s not a Weimar Germany kind of problem. I won’t get into why Americans are so upset about inflation that they might choose Trump over Biden in November. I want to look at a different question, which is whether inflation would be lower if Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, “, Trump, Adolf Hitler’s, Biden, it’s, States ’, Binyamin Appelbaum, Paul Krugman Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden, Trump Locations: Waukesha, Wis, Germany, Weimar Germany, States

☆ Opinion | Give Me Laundry Liberty or Give Me Death!
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

MAGA Republicans say that America is in crisis: The economy is collapsing while the nation is being overrun by hordes of violent immigrants. But if that’s what you believe, you should be laser-focused on fighting the clear and present danger, right? In April, Republicans planned to vote on a series of more specific bills: the Liberty in Laundry Act, the Refrigerator Freedom Act and more. Should the government be trying to limit home energy consumption? If so, should it do so with efficiency mandates for appliances, or in some other way?

Persons: MAGA, they’re Organizations: MAGA Republicans, Republicans, Appliances, Department of Energy, Liberty, Laundry Locations: America

☆ News Coverage and Inflation Negativity - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

By normal standards, the U.S. economy continues to look very good. Unemployment has now been below 4 percent for 27 months, and inflation remains fairly low, albeit somewhat higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. But if you say that, you get a lot of pushback; some get angry. Much of that pushback is partisan. Donald Trump described Friday’s jobs report, in which the unemployment rate rose — wait for it!

Persons: Donald Trump, it’s Organizations: Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Gov. Ron DeSantis Is Banning Lab-Grown Meat - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

And at the moment, lab-grown meat isn’t commercially available and probably won’t be for a long time, if ever. Still, if and when lab-grown meat, also sometimes referred to as cultured meat, makes it onto the market at less than outrageous prices, a significant number of people will probably buy it. And it’s at least possible that lab-grown meat will eventually be cheaper than meat from animals. And if some people choose to consume lab-grown meat, why not? Recently DeSantis, back to work as governor of Florida after the spectacular failure of his presidential campaign, signed a bill banning the production or sale of lab-grown meat in his state.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, DeSantis Locations: Florida

☆ Opinion | The Peculiar Persistence of Trump-stalgia
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Real incomes per capita, although lower than they were when the government was handing out stimulus checks, are higher than before the pandemic. But, you say, people feel that they’re worse off — I agree that narrative is floating out there — except overall, they really don’t. I’ve written before about swing-state polls in which solid majorities of voters say that the economy is doing badly, but at the same time comparable majorities say that they themselves are doing well. The widely cited Michigan survey asks respondents whether their financial situation is better or worse than it was five (not four) years ago: 52 percent say better, 38 percent say worse. And again, when voters are asked about their personal well-being as opposed to the state of the economy, they’re relatively positive — although even there, partisanship shades responses.

Persons: I’ve, Biden, — Organizations: Trump Locations: Michigan

☆ Interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion, but the Fed's decision day still matters
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.

Persons: —, it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London

☆ Are High Interest Rates Here to Stay? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Do you remember the economy of the late 1990s? Or if you’re too young to remember it — I hope that’s true for at least some of my readers — what have you heard about it? You probably remember it as a time of prosperity — low unemployment and rapid economic growth combined with low inflation — marred by irrational exuberance in the stock market. What you might not realize is how closely the economy of early 2024 resembles that of the late Clinton years. Notably, unemployment is actually a bit lower now than it was at the end of the roaring ’90s:

Persons: Clinton

☆ Trump 2.0 would be destructive for the economy, as the former president embraces 'crank' doctrine and economic fantasy, Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Blame the former president's "quack" economic policy and his tendency to deny reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Similar "destructive" policies could be re-enacted in the US if Trump is re-elected in November, Krugman said. AdvertisementSome of Trump's economic policies during his presidency were flawed, Krugman said. If re-elected, Trump has said he plans on cracking down on immigration and imposing tariffs on US imports, especially those from China. "What's really worrisome, however, are indications that a future Trump regime would manipulate monetary policy in pursuit of short-run political advantage, justifying its actions with crank economic doctrines ...

Persons: —, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Trump, he's, that's, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business, Federal Reserve, Trump Locations: China, stoke

☆ Opinion | Trump Is Flirting With Quack Economics
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

I wish people would stop calling Donald Trump a populist. He has, after all, never demonstrated any inclination to help working Americans, and his economic policies really didn’t help — his 2017 tax cut, in particular, was a giveaway to the wealthy. But his behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic showed that he’s as addicted to magical thinking and denial of reality as any petty strongman or dictator, which makes it all too likely that he might preside over the type of problems that result when policies are based on quack economics. Now, destructive economic policy isn’t the thing that alarms me the most about Trump’s potential return to power. Prospects for retaliation against his political opponents, huge detention camps for undocumented immigrants and more loom much larger in my mind.

Persons: Rudiger Dornbusch, Sebastian Edwards, wasn’t, “, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of, Donald Trump, he’s, Biden Locations: Latin America, Argentina, Venezuela, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, United States

☆ Opinion | Can Biden Revive the Fortunes of American Workers?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last week, employees at a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., voted by almost three to one to join the United Automobile Workers. By the numbers, this wasn’t a big deal: It involved only a few thousand workers in an economy that employs almost 160 million people. You can quantify this arc using statistical measures like the Gini coefficient or the ratio of top to bottom incomes. The thing is, that relatively equal society didn’t evolve gradually. Wartime wage and price controls were an equalizing force, but the new equality persisted for decades after those controls were removed.

Persons: Claudia Goldin —, Robert Margo Organizations: Volkswagen, United Automobile Workers Locations: Chattanooga , Tenn, Chattanooga, America

☆ Opinion | Ukraine Aid in the Light of History
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

On Saturday the House of Representatives finally overcame MAGA opposition and approved a new aid package for Ukraine. I’m relieved that a nation under siege will probably — probably — get aid in time to survive, at least for a while, something that was increasingly in doubt given overwhelming Russian artillery superiority. And I’m worried because that faction remains powerful — a majority of Republicans in the House voted against Ukraine aid — and could still doom Ukraine in the years ahead. No, spending on Ukraine isn’t a huge burden on America, coming at the expense of domestic priorities. No, America isn’t bearing this cost alone, without help from our European allies.

Persons: MAGA, Biden, I’m, Vladimir Putin, —, Franklin Organizations: Republicans, Lease Locations: Ukraine, America, U.S, Europe, Britain, China, Harbor

☆ The 'misery index' often predicts who'll win the White House — but it may be broken
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

But there are signs the gauge may now be broken, with many people still gloomy about the economy. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But Main Street has taken a decidedly gloomier view, with recession worries persisting and big-name companies ramping up layoffs. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: it's, —, Paul Krugman, Mohamed El, hasn't Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The U.S. Economy’s Post-Covid Recovery: Were We Just Lucky? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The U.S. economy has been far more successful at recovering from the Covid shock than it was in dealing with the aftermath of the housing bubble of the 2000s. As I noted in my latest column, four years after the 2007-9 recession began, employment was still five million below its pre-recession peak. This time it’s up by almost six million. And while there was a wave of inflation, it seems to have broken. This is especially clear if you measure inflation the way other countries do.

Locations: U.S

☆ Opinion | Good Economy, Negative Vibes: The Story Continues
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When it comes to economic news, we’ve had so much winning that we’ve gotten tired of winning, or at any rate blasé about it. Last week, we got another terrific employment report — job growth for 39 straight months — and it feels as if hardly anyone noticed. In particular, it’s not clear whether the good news will dent the still widespread but false narrative that President Biden is presiding over a bad economy. Four years ago, the economy was body-slammed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but we have more than recovered. Why, then, are so many Americans still telling pollsters that the economy is in bad shape?

Persons: we’ve, it’s, Biden, pollsters, we’re

☆ China needs a new economic plan that focuses less on exporting and more on domestic growth, 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China will stagnate if it relies on manufacturing and exports to grow, Nouriel Roubini wrote in Project Syndicate. That growth model is outdated and worked in a time when foreign markets were more open to Chinese products. AdvertisementChina can't grow out of its economic problems if it stays focused on manufacturing and exports, says famed "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. "The old Chinese growth model is broken," the perma-bear economist wrote for Project Syndicate, later adding: "China therefore needs a new growth model concentrated on domestic services — rather than goods — and private consumption." Related storiesWhen China's economy was smaller, this form of growth made sense, as its exports were still manageable for foreign markets, Roubini said.

Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Doom, —, Roubini, Xi Jinping, he's, Paul Krugman Organizations: Project Syndicate, Service Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Opinion | Why Some Billionaires Will Back Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Big Trump rallies aren’t yielding his biggest cash hauls. Which raises the question: Why would billionaires support such a person? Economists, myself included, often remind people that the stock market is not the economy. Low unemployment and rising real wages — both of which, by the way, the Biden economy has delivered, even if many people don’t believe it — have much more relevance to most people’s lives. And although in 2020 Trump predicted a stock crash if Biden won, the market has, in fact, been hitting record highs under the current administration.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Big, it’s, they’ve, Biden, Trump Organizations: Big Trump, Justice Department

☆ Will the Baltimore Bridge Disaster Make Inflation Worse? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It has been a week since the Dali, a container ship, struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. It’s still stuck there, and the images remain amazing, in part because the vessel is so huge compared with what’s left of the bridge. And with the ship and pieces of the bridge blocking the harbor entry, the Port of Baltimore remains closed. Well, it would have been quite a big deal if it had happened in late 2021 or early 2022, when global supply chains were under a lot of pressure. The Dali is no Ever Given, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal when it ran aground in 2021.

Persons: Dali, Francis Scott Key, It’s, what’s, Dali Baltimore Locations: Baltimore, Port, Los Angeles, Dali, East Coast, Suez

☆ Opinion | Will MAGA Republicans Block Baltimore’s Rebuilding?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Soon after a huge container ship struck Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, bringing it down, President Biden pledged that the federal government would “pay the entire cost of reconstructing” the bridge. This would clearly be the right thing to do, not just to help the state of Maryland but also to limit the economic damage from a disaster that has blocked both a major road artery and a major port. Biden will probably be able to get funds for rebuilding, but it’s by no means a sure thing. The rise of MAGA Republicans is only part of the problem. Indeed, within days, Congress voted unanimously to provide $250 million in aid.

Persons: Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key, Biden, —, MAGA, I’ve Organizations: Federal, Aid, Republican, MAGA Republicans Locations: Maryland, Port, Baltimore, East, America, Minnesota

☆ Opinion | Bidenomics Is Making China Angry. That’s OK.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

case against Biden’s China policies, by the way, was that he was showing his softness by not banning TikTok. Biden, on the other hand, has quietly taken a very tough line on trade, especially with China. I’ve been pointing out for a while that Biden’s sophisticated economic nationalism is a very big deal, much more so than Trump’s protectionist thrashing. In fact, Biden’s policies are so tough on China that, while I support them, they make me a bit nervous. But in case you don’t believe what I’m saying, let me point to someone who apparently agrees with me: the Chinese government.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump’s, Trump, relabel, I’ve Organizations: Republican Locations: China

☆ Opinion | Why Has Obamacare Worked?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

We’ve just passed the 14th anniversary of the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. In its early years, Obamacare was the subject of fierce criticism from both the left and the right. But Obamacare has survived, greatly expanding health insurance coverage without busting the budget. Critics on the left complain that it hasn’t produced truly universal health care, which indeed it hasn’t.

Persons: We’ve, Obamacare, hasn’t Organizations: Protection, Affordable

☆ Why Obamacare Is in Grave Danger, Again - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Obamacare — signed into law on March 23, 2010, although many of its provisions didn’t kick in until 2014 — you probably wouldn’t have been able to get health insurance. Today you can, thanks to provisions in the law that prevent insurers from discriminating based on medical history and that subsidize insurance premiums for many Americans. And President Biden strengthened the program, notably by extending provisions eliminating the “cliff” that cut off subsides for many middle-class Americans. and almost succeeded in passing a bill that the Congressional Budget Office estimated would have left 22 million more Americans uninsured by 2026. wins control of Congress and the White House in November, it will once again try to bring back the bad old days of health coverage.

Persons: Obamacare —, Biden, Donald Trump, John McCain —, Trump Organizations: Republicans, Congressional, White House, Republican Party

☆ Opinion | The Roots of Rural Rage
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

To the Editor:Re “The Mystery of White Rural Rage,” by Paul Krugman (column, Feb. 27):In 2006 I rode my bicycle across the country. From San Diego to Georgia I traveled over long stretches of empty road that connected small rural communities. Christian values, love of God and country, are supposed to be an inoculation against bad things. Yet almost every per capita statistic — teen pregnancy, gun deaths, infant mortality, spousal abuse, drug use, alcoholism, poverty — shows an inherent, not extrinsic, problem in rural America. Rural residents, as Mr. Krugman points out, live on the “destruction side of the equation,” but technology alone is not to blame.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: White Locations: San Diego, Georgia, ”, America, Rural

☆ Opinion | Social Security and Medicare Are on the Ballot
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A few days ago, the Biden administration released its budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year (which begins in October). Given that Republicans control the House, this budget isn’t going to happen, so it serves mainly as a statement of principles and intent. It clearly signaled Democrats’ vision for the future — in particular, their belief that we can preserve the solvency of Social Security and Medicare by raising taxes on high incomes rather than by cutting benefits. I’ll come back to the question of what Trump meant by his remarks and, more important, what he might actually do if he returns to power. You might be tempted to dismiss Biden’s assurances on safety net programs as boilerplate — don’t Democrats always promise to protect Social Security and Medicare?

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, I’ll, Trump, Biden’s Organizations: Social Security, CNBC

☆ Rising unemployment poses the biggest threat to a soft landing, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A US soft landing looks likely, but rising unemployment is cause for worry, Paul Krugman wrote in The New York Times. AdvertisementThe US economy is comfortably in soft landing territory, but Paul Krugman says it isn't altogether clear that it will stay that way. February's jobs report triggered these concerns, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from 3.7%. Krugman notes that on other fronts, however, soft landing advocates have a stronger case. While consumer price index inflation data has outpaced expectations two months in a row now, these recent reports are not completely in line with reality, Krugman wrote.

Persons: Paul Krugman, —, He's, Krugman, David Rosenberg, That's, Biden, we're Organizations: The New York Times, Service, New York Times

☆ Can We Still Beat Inflation With a Soft Landing? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Way back in 1973, America was experiencing a troubling rise in inflation. But George Shultz, the Treasury secretary at the time, suggested that the problem would be transitory — that the economy could have a “soft landing.”It didn’t. The 1970s were infamously a decade of stagflation, and inflation was finally brought under control in the 1980s only via tight money policies that caused years of very high unemployment. So President Biden was tempting fate a bit when he declared in the State of the Union address that “the landing is and will be soft.” But he’s almost surely right.

Persons: George Shultz, Biden Locations: America, State

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