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☆ Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio

☆ Morning Bid: Oil spike delivers coup de grace to dire Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A nighttime view of the Torrance Refinery, an oil refinery operated by PBF Energy, in Torrance, California, U.S., March 10, 2022. The U.S. Treasury completes more than $130 billion of new debt sales this week with another 7-year note auction later on Thursday. But even though the euro bounced back from 2023 lows today, there was better news on the inflation front from Europe. As China's markets headed for the Golden Week holidays next week, stocks there were in the red too - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) hitting its lowest for the year so far. * U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes, 4-week bills* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Accenture, CarmaxReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsEditing by Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bing Guan, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Torrance Refinery, PBF Energy, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Kansas, Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, Accenture, Carmax Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Torrance, Torrance , California, U.S, Washington, United States, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Markets catch breath after bruising recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's markets will also be disrupted by Golden Week holidays next week. Ten-year Treasury yields hit another 16-year high at 4.56% on Tuesday before dialling back a bit on Wednesday, with 10-year real yields hitting 14-year peaks at 2.24%. Risk spreads in junk bond and overseas sovereign bond markets are also creeping higher again, with exchange-traded U.S. junk bond funds hitting their lowest since May and Italy's government bond yield premium over Germany widening too. Worrying for many investors this week has been how bond yields have climbed despite weaker economic signals and how stock and bond losses are correlating again. World markets were more mixed, with China's bourses managing some gains ahead of the big holiday week.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell's, Neel Kashkari, shakeout, Shorter, China's bourses, Michelle Bowman, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Fed, Golden, Nasdaq, Big Tech, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Costco, China Evergrande, HK, United, Treasury, Micron, Paychex Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Germany, United States

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Summer of discontent
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

UAW President Shawn Fain marches with UAW members through downtown Detroit after a rally in support of United Auto Workers members as they strike the Big Three auto makers on September 15, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The S&P 500 has fallen 4.2% this month, on pace for its second straight losing month and its worst month since December. CNBC screened FactSet data to examine what equities traders are betting on, or fleeing, as macroeconomic uncertainty continues.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Stocks, Goldman Sachs — Organizations: UAW, United Auto Workers, CNBC, Nasty, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, House Republicans, Thursday, Soviet, Economic Union, P500 Locations: Detroit, Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Summer discontent is spilling into the fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

UAW President Shawn Fain marches with UAW members through downtown Detroit after a rally in support of United Auto Workers members as they strike the Big Three auto makers on September 15, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This has turned market attention to how long rates will be held at current levels, amid strains on economic growth. CNBC screened FactSet data to examine what equities traders are betting on, or fleeing, as macroeconomic uncertainty continues.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Evergrande, Will Organizations: UAW, United Auto Workers, CNBC, Nasty, Nikkei, House Republicans, Thursday, Soviet, Economic Union, P500, Federal Reserve Locations: Detroit, Detroit , Michigan, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow

☆ Morning Bid: Shutdown, oil, auctions and China rankle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Even before U.S. markets kick off on Monday, China's ongoing property bust threw another curve ball at stocks markets there. Country Garden (2007.HK) fell more than 7% as investors nervously watch out for its latest dollar bond coupon payment on Wednesday. Fed aside, there were multiple domestic issues to trouble the horizon - not least a government shutdown next weekend. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields nudged back close to 16-year highs above 4.5% set last week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Dolan, China Evergrande, Charles Wang Zhonghe, Kevin McCarthy, Morgan Stanley, Neel Kashkari, Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, HK, hawkish U.S, Federal, Republicans, Treasury, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Wall St, China, HK, hawkish, St, Washington, ., California

☆ Morning Bid: Edgy market calm after worst day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. World stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD0000PUS) recorded their worst day of the year so far - dropping 1.69%. The yen fell back again but the dollar/yen rate remained below Thursday's 2023 high of 148.45. The pound hit its lowest level since March and 10-year British gilt yields fell to their lowest level since July. Elsewhere, oil prices nudged higher again on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan Punch, Rupert Murdoch, Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Treasury, Sterling, of, Activision Blizzard, Markets Authority, Ubisoft, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Fox Corp, News Corp, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Boston, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Australia, Britain, United States, India

☆ Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Rates dice, AI arms race and G20 snub
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters and robot hand are placed on computer motherboard in this illustration taken, June 23, 2023. Even if that came in slightly above forecasts, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in the country's service sector ensured another underwhelming reaction. Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to skip a summit of G20 leaders in India, sources told Reuters. Overall, Asia markets were flat to negative - Europe's bourses were higher and U.S. futures held steady ahead of Thursday's open. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by David Evans, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, chatbots, Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Luis de Guindos, Campbell, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Baidu, HK, Washington, Reuters, Premier, U.S, Treasury, UBS, Chicago, Boston Federal, Atlanta Fed, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, India, New Delhi, Asia

☆ Morning Bid: Cooler labor warms markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. Stubborn inflation readings from Europe on Wednesday and hesitation around this week's China market rebound suggested the coast was far from clear despite worldwide stock and bond market rally in the previous session. Ebbing consumer confidence in August reinforced the message of slowing activity, however, and The Conference Board's so-called labor market differential, derived from respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed by almost six points to 26.2% - its lowest since April 2021. China's stock markets also stalled after a two-day rally, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo claiming on her three-day visit to the country that many U.S. firms now see China as "un-investable". But it seemed to draw a line under the stock market this week with a series of supports and the prospect of further cuts in lending, deposit and mortgage rates.

Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan, St's, bitcoin, Gina Raimondo, Denmark's, Kristalina Georgieva, James, Brown, Forman, Louise Heavens Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Labor, Nasdaq, Securities, Exchange, U.S . Commerce, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Cooper Companies Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Europe, China, Monday's U.S, Spain, Beijing, payrolls, Shanghai, CrowdStrike

☆ Morning Bid: Quietly absorbing one more Fed hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Early Tuesday, futures priced almost a two-thirds chance of that additional quarter-point move in November. And yet - perhaps with the uncertainty dissipating, the economy still robust and bond markets better priced - world markets appear to be taking the tighter odds in their stride. More impressively in the circumstances, restive bond markets calmed down and bond yields continued to dial back from their highest in over a decade last week. Asia bourses more widely and European indices were higher, while Wall St futures were flat ahead of the open.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Gina Raimondo, China's, Idalia, Michael Barr, JM Smucker, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta, Overseas, U.S . Commerce, Garden Holdings, Wall, U.S, Dallas Fed, Federal, Treasury, HP, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Washington, Beijing, China, HK, Asia, Florida's, Coast, Cuba

☆ Morning Bid: August rescued by Nvidia, bond rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA dire August for world markets is being rehabilitated in its final week, helped by another sparkling AI-related surprise from chip giant Nvidia (NVDA.O) and a rebound in battered bond markets. The bar for surprise from Wednesday's earnings update was sky high, but the company somehow managed to vault it again. Despite the rebound the index is still down more than 4% for August - its worst month since last September. Ironically, the retreat in bond yields comes amid signs of cooling economic activity - but that comes with the significant relief that central banks may not have to squeeze any harder to get inflation back close to targets. Bond yields are in retreat in advance of the speech, helped by the easing economic data and a decent 20-year bond auction on Wednesday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, China's spluttering, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Woodside Energy, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Intuit, Ulta, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Frankfurt, Asia, Shanghai, Europe, Kansas, Jackson

☆ Morning Bid: World markets bounce at last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The onshore yuan steadied amid supportive action by China's state banks in the swaps market, and Chinese stocks (.CSI300) perked up from the year's lows. Overall, MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS) was on course on Tuesday for its first back-to-back daily gains of August so far. There were background concerns about the impact on U.S. banks of this latest hit to bond prices and borrowing rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping, MSCI's, Jackson, Jerome Powell's, Moody's, Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Cyril Ramaphosa, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, P, Activision, Ubisoft Entertainment, Microsoft, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Federal, Chicago Fed, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Wyoming, Jackson, China, South Africa, Asia, Johannesburg, Pretoria

Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds calm down but Chinese markets smolder
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRestive bonds showed signs of calm on Wednesday, but China's struggling economy and markets continue to unnerve world markets. A twin jolt from resurgent western debt yields and China's deepening economic funk and property sector troubles have made for a bumpy August to date. After a slew of dour retail, industrial and property investment numbers earlier this week, China reported on Wednesday that home prices fell for the first time this year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan Restive, swooned, Goldman Sachs, Neel Kashkari, I'm, Fitch, JPMorgan Chase, Mike Dolan, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Minneapolis Fed, United States, AAA, JPMorgan, Bank of America, of, Cisco, Amcor, New, New York Fed, . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Wall St, China, United, New York, Canada

And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?

Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea

☆ Morning Bid: U.S. retail therapy as China funk deepens
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. China stocks fell again (.CSI300) and 10-year government bond yields fell to three-year lows. Ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest for the year at 4.23%. Elsewhere in the so-called BRICS emerging economies - the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - the dollar was also in command. Back stateside, the retail sales report will be accompanied by an earnings update from Home Depot - the first of the big retailers to report this week.

Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan, Jackson, Jack Henry *, Neel Kashkari, Susan Fenton Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Bank of America's, Treasury, Agilent Technologies, Cardinal Health, NY, Minneapolis Federal, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, China, Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Ukraine, Argentina's, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: China trade data disappoints, again
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. equity markets saw their first positive day in August on Monday, but then along came Chinese trade data. Parsing the export data, David Chao, global market strategist at Invesco, says the miss was driven by lower prices rather than lower volumes, and that Chinese export volumes remain surprisingly robust. Though, he says, "looking at other export-related data such as export orders, the outlook appears weak." Even Chinese imports from Russia fell year-on-year in July, the first fall since Feb 2021. Tuesday looks quiet on the U.S. data front, but traders are bracing for the big one - Thursday's CPI data.

Persons: Alun John ., David Chao, Hong, Intesa, Banca, Banks, Moody's, Fed's Harker, Alun John, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Shipping, cnsphoto, REUTERS, Nasdaq, BPER Banca, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Truist, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, Hong Kong, Russia, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Wall St shines, China misses again
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Back on Wall Street, another heavy earnings week beckons and the July U.S. employment report on Friday looms large. Stock futures are marginally positive ahead of Monday's open, Asia bourses mostly just caught up with Friday's U.S. gains and European indexes were little changed. U.S. Treasury yields were steady, with the dollar firmer - due mainly to dollar/yen's jump to three-week highs. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Alex Richardson <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, What's, Asia bourses, Alex Richardson Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Bank of England, Friday's U.S, Treasury, European Banking Authority, Loews, Arista Networks, Eversource Energy, ON Semiconductor, SBA Communications, Republic Services, Diamondback Energy, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, United States, Tokyo, Asia, Western, Chicago

☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan excites, Dow unlucky, Intel jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Specifically, the central bank said it would offer to buy 10-year JGBs at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5% - tolerating the wider band for bond market borrowing rates. With July core inflation in Tokyo falling back to a 10-month low, the need for tightening may be ebbing anyway. Friday's data is expected to show another drop in the Fed's favoured core PCE inflation gauge in June. For markets more broadly, Friday seems a little scattergun so far after a heavy week of macro policy and corporate news. U.S. Treasury yields fell back from two-week highs hit after the punchy U.S. economy readouts and central bank moves, with the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepening as recession fears abate.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones bluechips, T Rowe Price, Nick Macfie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dow, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, ECB, Intel, U.S, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Proctor, Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Church, Dwight, Charter Communications, Dallas Fed, University of Michigan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall St, Tokyo, Wall, Asia, Centene, Franklin

LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - Even as fears of a 2023 U.S. recession recede and stock market bears concede defeat, there's scant sign of party mode. After wild swings of output, prices, employment, liquidity and interest rates, firm convictions about the precise onset of "technical" recessions - or even previously reliable gauges of bull and bear markets - have all become a bit suspect. Whether on a domestic or global scale, aggregate views of the economy, or stock market, right now are likely misleading. A bull to bear market and back again in little over 18 months - or so it seems. SP 500 2023 YTD THROUGH JULY 21BLUNTEDChief among the puzzles is the variable impact of sharply higher interest rates on both households and firms.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, Mike Dolan Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, Tuesday, eventual, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Generale, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, midyear

☆ Morning Bid: ECB to follow Fed hike, Meta surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained equivocal about whether there was one more policy rate rise left this year and said Fed staff were no longer forecasting a recession - but futures markets continue to see a less than 50% chance of another move. Global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their highest since April last year on Thursday, with European stocks up more than 1% ahead of the ECB decision. The euro pushed higher against a softer dollar ahead of the announcement and press conference from ECB chief Christine Lagarde. The yen also firmed as the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its easy policy unchanged on Friday. The euro zone's biggest bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), by contrast, beat Q2 estimates and the stock jumped 4%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Meta, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Christine Lagarde, Willis Towers Watson, Giorgia Meloni, Joe Biden, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Treasury, Boeing, Dow, Wall, ECB, Bank of, Shell, Barclays, BNP, Central Bank, Intel, Ford, Boston Scientific, Myers Squibb, Honeywell, Xcel, Eastman Chemical, Pentair, Mastercard, P Global, Hershey, Digital Realty, Northrop Grumman, Weyerhaeuser, Cincinatti, Verisign, Comcast, Southwest Airlines, HCA, . Federal Reserve Board, Washington Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Exxon, Chevron, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Asia, Hong Kong, China, Abbvie, Bristol, Edison, Kansas, Basel III, Washington

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