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Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL) has called for the exchange to reconsider its decision last November to continue accepting deliveries of Russian metal. China imported 462,000 metric tons of Russian-brand primary aluminium last year, up from 291,000 metric tons in 2021. The country has emerged as the market of first resort for Russian metal since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The top two destinations for June's "exports" were Japan (10,000 metric tons) and South Korea (20,500 metric tons). China's aluminium run-rate fell by an annualised 636,000 metric tons over the first quarter, according to the International Aluminium Institute.

Persons: Rusal, Goldman Sachs, ingot, isn't, Jane Merriman Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Norsk Hydro, Hydro, Rusal, International Aluminium Institute, AZ Global, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Norwegian, Russian, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Ukraine, Japan, South Korea, Gwangyang, CHINA, Yunnan

The steady stream of Chinese shipments has served to plug supply gaps in Western markets and helped replenish depleted London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. China's export impulse is keeping the local market tight, which appears to be attracting a lot of speculative attention to the Shanghai lead contract. The three top destinations over the first half of 2023 were Taiwan (17,500 metric tons), Vietnam (16,100 metric tons) and Bangladesh (10,300 metric tons). LME STOCKS REBUILDSome of China's outbound shipments have been trickling into the LME warehouse system. ShfFE lead price, MOI and stocksCHINA TIGHTNESSWhile LME stocks have been rising, ShFE inventory has been sliding.

Persons: It's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, China, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Europe, United States, Asia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Kaohsiung, Singapore, Stolberg, MOI, CHINA, London

How much more will arrive in the market of last resort depends on China, which is stepping up imports of refined zinc. China's refined zinc imports, exports and net tradeCHINA FLIPS BACK TO NET IMPORTERChina imported 45,329 metric tons of refined zinc in June, the highest monthly tally since May 2021. The country exported 81,000 metric tons of zinc in 2022, including shipments of 7,800 metric tons to Mexico and 3,400 metric tons to the United States, two destinations that haven't in the past featured in China's zinc trade. The country's monthly refined zinc production has been notching double-digit growth rates since March. So far, however, there is scant evidence of a significant build of surplus metal in the mainland market.

Persons: It's, Paul Simao Organizations: London Metal Exchange, China, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Metal, International, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Asian, contango, China, CHINA, Mexico, United States, backwardation, Shanghai, Europe, Antwerp

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Copper's electrical conductivity makes it a core component of the green energy transition, whether it be in the form of solar panels, electric vehicles or wind turbines. Which begs the question of where it might be if funds were collectively to buy into the green copper story. Fund positioning on the CME copper contractCHOPPY COPPERMoney manager net positioning on the CME copper contract has been flipping between long and short in recent weeks as LME copper chops around in a $8,140-8,870 range. China's recovery has disappointed copper bulls and funds shifted to the short side in May, coinciding with LME copper hitting the lower end of its trading range. Both volumes and open interest have perked up this year, but the driver appears to have been the China reopening story rather than the longer-term green energy narrative.

Persons: Conor Humphries Organizations: Citi, London Metal Exchange, CME, Traders, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China

Investment in the critical minerals pipeline grew by 20% in 2021 and by 30% in 2022, led by lithium, copper and nickel. Although prices of some critical minerals such as copper have eased over the last year due to recession in the "old economy", prices for most critical minerals remain well above historical averages as supply struggles to catch up with demand. Production trends for nickel and cobaltLIMITED DIVERSIFICATIONThere has been only limited success in diversifying the geographical sourcing of critical minerals in recent years, the IEA said. China, which already dominates lithium processing, accounts for half of the world's planned new lithium chemical plants. Moreover, China's move to control exports of gallium and germanium underlines the concentration of supply in a host of smaller, esoteric metals that feed into the critical minerals landscape.

Persons: China's, IRENA, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: International Energy Agency, Investment, IEA, International Renewable Energy Agency, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, China, Indonesia, United States, Europe, South America

Metal has been arriving almost daily in response to a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve. LME and ShFE tin stocksLME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESSThe tightness on the LME tin contract does not seem to have reflected any shortage of tin in the physical market. The LME squeeze appears to have been more a clash of positioning in what can at times be a relatively illiquid market. Fund positioning on the LME tin contractSUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMSWhile tin supply has recovered from early-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new threat is now looming. From the start of next month, all tin mining will be suspended in the Wa region of Myanmar.

Persons: It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Fastmarkets, Fund, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association, Yinman, Yunnan Tin Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Italian, Genoa, Trieste, Spanish, Bilbao, Baltimore, U.S, Midwest, COVID, Indonesia, Peru, Wa, Guangxi, Mongolia, Yunnan, China

Exports last year were 94 metric tonnes, up 25% on 2021. Last year's exports totaled 44 metric tonnes in both wrought and unwrought form. As of September 2022 the DLA was storing 14 metric tonnes of germanium metal and 6.9 metric tonnes of scrap. An outright ban could be counter-productive, as China found out when it halted exports of rare earths to Japan in 2010. China has no shortage of pressure points to push, from rare earths to cobalt to lithium and even electric vehicle batteries.

Persons: Germany's, Wei Jianguo, Barbara Lewis Organizations: U.S, Chips, Export, United States Geological Survey, Alliance, Defense Logistics Agency, Teck Resources, Agency, Solutions, Democratic, Gecamines, World Trade Organization, China, Toyota, Honda, Audi, Commerce, China Daily, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, United States, Teck, NYR.BR, Clarksville, Tennessee, New York, Australia, Europe, Democratic Republic of Congo's, Russia, Japan, Beijing, West

☆ UK's FTSE 100 flat as energy gains offset mining losses; real estate stocks tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummaryCompanies FTSE 100 flat, FTSE 250 off 0.4%July 10 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 was subdued on Monday, as gains in energy firms outpaced losses in mining stocks, after weak Chinese economic data rekindled slowing demand concerns, while real estate stocks slumped on a bearish call from HSBC. By 0718 GMT, the blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was flat, while the more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) fell 0.4%. Industrial metal miners (.FTNMX551020) lost 0.8%, tracking a fall in most base metal prices. A bearish note from HSBC on UK real estate weighed on the sector, pushing down the real estate investment trusts (REITs) (.FTNMX351020) 1.2% and real estate (.FTUB3510) 1.1%. Heavyweight energy stocks (.FTNMX601010) added 0.8%.

Persons: Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: HSBC, Prudential, Thomson Locations: China, Bengaluru

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - European Union (EU) countries have added aluminium to the list of minerals and metals covered by the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). Western European primary aluminium production is the lowest this centuryFALLING OUTPUTAs things stand, Europe is going to struggle to lift primary production at all over that time-frame. European aluminium imports by countryIMPORT DEPENDENCYEuropean aluminium consumption averaged just over 5.0 million metric tons per year over the 2016-2020 period, according to the EU. However, the key difference is where Europe sources its bauxite and primary aluminium. POWER PROBLEMSGetting aluminium onto Europe's critical raw materials list is an important win for the region's aluminium sector.

Persons: didn't, it's, David Evans Organizations: Union, Federation of Aluminium Consumers, International Aluminium Institute, IAI, EU, Rusal, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, China, Europe, EU, Ukraine, Guinea, Brazil, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Iceland, Britain, Russia

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 1.2% higher. European shares still advanced 8.7% in the first six months of the year. Miners (.SXPP) were a big drag this quarter, down 9.2% as worries around top metals consumer China weighed heavily on metal prices. The real estate sector (.SX86P) rose 1.7%, buoyed by 4.3% gains in shares of LEG Immobilien (LEGn.DE) after the German firm raised its 2023 outlook. Shares in Adidas (ADSGn.DE) and Puma (PUMG.DE), which had fallen earlier on Nike's (NKE.N) dour forecast, reversed course to rise 2.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Persons: Melanie Debono, Hubert de, Amruta Khandekar, Matteo Allievi, Varun H, Eileen Soreng, David Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Pantheon, ECB, Capital Economics, MIB, Miners, Adidas, Puma, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S, Hubert de Barochez, China, Bengaluru, Gdansk

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - There's a renewed scramble for copper sitting in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Headline LME copper stocks have slid from 100,100 tonnes to 77,050 over the last three weeks despite almost 30,000 tonnes of arrivals. The drain on LME copper stocks is puzzling given weakening manufacturing activity in both Europe and the United States. It wouldn't be the first time that the LME stocks signal has been refracted, and the lower the stocks, the easier it is to bend the light. The Shanghai exchange has experienced tightness across the front part of the curve since March, with time-spreads now also the widest since November.

Persons: Boliden's, Copper, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, LME, U.S ., CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Futures, ShFE's, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, London, ShFE, INE, Shanghai, China, Asia

A net 1,400 lots of short positions were covered by the time the market was suspended at 08:15. Xiang Guangda, the charismatic head of China's Tsingshan Holding Group, has attracted much media attention for being the big nickel short. The existence of at least once big nickel short wasn't exactly a secret in the market. LME nickel crisis had turned into potential LME clearing house crisis with Chamberlain having to juggle both parts of the meltdown while also being a nickel market specialist. The handful that remained, as one participant later recalled, knew nothing whatsoever about what was going on in the nickel market so decided to call everyone else back into the room.

Persons: Elliott, Street, Matthew Chamberlain, Chamberlain, Jane Street, Oliver Wyman's, Xiang Guangda, wasn't, Oliver Wyman, John Maynard Keynes, Xiang, doesn't, David Evans Organizations: London, Royal, of Justice, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Elliott Associates, Jane, Global, Tsingshan Holding, SEE, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine

☆ Bank of America warns that the time-tested 60/40 portfolio strategy is on its deathbed — but you can still profit by making these 11 investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.

Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - The closure of the Tara zinc mine in Ireland tells you how far the price of the galvanising metal has fallen over the last year. The closure is unlikely to alleviate the immediate over-supply of zinc concentrates but it is a sharp reminder for the market that the zinc price is teetering on the edge of the mining production cost curve. LME zinc price, stocks and spreadsTARA'S PERFECT STORMTara Mines, based in County Meath, is "currently cash flow negative due to a combination of factors including operational challenges, a decline in the price of zinc, high energy prices and general cost inflation", Boliden said. "The zinc market seems to be very volatile at the moment," Nystrom said, which is an understatement given the scale of the price collapse over the last 15 months. But Tara's suspension is a wake-up call that after a year of worrying about smelters, zinc traders need to start worrying about zinc mines as well.

Persons: Tara, Boliden, Mines, Gunnar Nystrom, Ireland's, " Nystrom, Morgan Stanley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Ireland's RTE, Shanghai Metal Markets, Fastmarkets, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ireland, County Meath, Europe, China, Shanghai, London

☆ European shares fall at open, Sartorius plunges on forecast cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 19 (Reuters) - European shares fell at the opening bell on Monday, with Franco-German lab equipment maker Sartorius leading the declines, while investors cautiously awaited further stimulus measures from China to revive demand. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) shed 0.5% by 0719 GMT, while Germany's DAX index (.GDAXI) dropped 0.4% after closing at a record high in the prior session. Shares of Sartorius (SATG.DE) plunged 14%, to the bottom of the STOXX 600, after the company cut its 2023 revenue and margin forecasts on Friday. China-exposed luxury giant LVMH (LVMH.PA), which is Europe's most valuable firm, fell 0.9%, while the basic resources index (.SXPP) dropped 1.4% amid demand worries from top metals consumer China. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Antony Blinken, Shreyashi Sanyal, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Franco, Thomson Locations: German, China, The U.S, Bengaluru

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin has been treading water in a $23,700-26,800 range since the start of May. Although the demand outlook remains subdued, tin supply is facing two big threats, one from Myanmar and one from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Global tin supply, meanwhile, is now improving after an early-year drop in Indonesia shipments. Refined tin production fell year-on-year in May and Guangxi China Tin Group, the world's sixth-largest tin producer, has just announced a 40-50 day maintenance break from the end of this month, according to the ITA. Indonesia currently only has enough downstream capacity to absorb 5% of its domestic tin production, meaning that any restrictions will likely come in phases.

Persons: Minsur, International Tin Association . Tin, It's, David Evans Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Global, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Global Semiconductor, HIT, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Local, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association ., ITA, Guangxi China Tin Group, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midwest, London, imploding, Myanmar, Indonesia, Peruvian, United States, Europe MYANMAR, Wa, China, Wa State, Guangxi China, INDONESIA

☆ Stellantis SPAC deal has suitably decent airbags
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Carmakers are in a race to lock in battery metals like lithium. For shareholders, the risk is that they tie up capital in expensive supply deals, or mines in far-flung locations with poor governance. Stellantis’s (STLAM.MI) investment in a London-based special purpose acquisition company deal looks like a neat fix to those challenges. In a complex deal, halfway between an IPO and a SPAC takeover, it will buy the Serrote and Santa Rita mines in east Brazil for $1.1 billion. Besides the original SPAC investors, the bulk of that will likely come from a public offering, and new anchor investors like Stellantis.

Persons: Nat Rothschild’s Vallar, Artem Volynets, Neil Unmack, Xavier Niel, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Twitter, Brookfield, Thomson Locations: London, Santa, Brazil, Teck, China

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is once again looking to shine more light on what lies in the shadows of its warehousing system. The exchange's daily stocks reports offer a rare hard data point in a murky statistical landscape for metal traders. LME stocks are flatlining but is this down to the market or changed market behaviour? Traders will game any system they come up against but the current LME stocks reporting regime makes it too easy. Restoring trust in exchange stocks reporting is a key step in winning back the broader confidence of the market.

Persons: it's, Mark Potter Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Shanghai Futures, Traders, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Shanghai

☆ Gold set for biggest weekly fall since Feb on U.S. debt deal hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices ticked up on Friday but were on course for their biggest weekly drop in 3-1/2 months as hopes of a resolution in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and fading expectations of a rate cut by year-end took some shine off bullion. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $1,963.39 per ounce by 0418 GMT, but on track for a 2.4% weekly drop — its biggest since early February. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,964.60. Spot silver rose 0.6% to $23.64 per ounce, but was set for a second weekly fall. Investors are increasing their bullish bets in platinum with strong auto sales also boding well for platinum group metals, ANZ said in a note.

A super-charged two-year rally, which saw Chinese spot lithium carbonate prices rise by tenfold, went into brutal reverse over the first part of this year. The slump in China's spot price dragged down the whole lithium pricing chain from spodumene concentrate to hydroxide, albeit to highly varying degrees. But lithium's roller-coaster ride highlights the important role China's spot market and the Wuxi futures exchange play in the fast-growing industry's price discovery process. Many lithium buyers, in other words, will be paying higher prices this year whatever happens in the Chinese spot market. The collapse in China's spot price has far exceeded the decline in the price of Australian spodumene, another closely tracked market indicator.

Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.

Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.

LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - The global copper market is facing another year of supply deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The Group's April forecast is for a supply shortfall of 114,000 tonnes this year after a 431,000-tonne deficit in 2022. The calculation could easily be thrown off, since it is based on changes in visible inventory combined with China's net imports of refined metal. Last year's elevated net imports served to inflate China's apparent usage. A 16.4% slump in net imports over the first quarter of this year will do the reverse.

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

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