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☆ Poland holds up EU deal on minimum corporate tax, aid for Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BRUSSELS, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Poland was on Thursday holding up the European Union's formal adoption of a minimum corporate tax for large companies and, by extension, also blocking a whole package of other deals, including financing for Ukraine in 2023, diplomats said. The minimum tax, along with 18 billion euros ($19 billion)for Ukraine next year, the approval of Hungary's recovery plan and the suspension of some EU budget funds for Budapest were all part of a complex deal reached by EU governments on Monday night. "It's the whole package that is held up over Polish issues with the global tax that no one understands," one EU diplomat said. The minimum tax is to apply to companies with an annual turnover of at least 750 million euros and each EU country will have to adopt it into national law by the end of 2023. Large firms will have to pay the minimum rate from the start of 2024.

LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - With world markets in thrall to the final big three central bank meetings of a tumultuous year next week, the parallel world of fiscal policy takes a back seat. The UK's disastrously botched giveaway budget in September set out for many the limits of what's possible in a world of double-digit inflation. Loosen the public purse strings any further and the commensurate level of interest rates needed to then get inflation back to 2% targets balloons, and risks melting the economy down in other ways. OECD chart on fiscal outlook'BRUTE FORCE'All of which begs the question of whether central banks will have to conduct the inflation fight on their own. And likely severe recessions from historically modest interest rates just force central banks to quickly return to so-called quantitative easing, undermining their own longer-term inflation battle.

☆ UK PMI sticks near 21-month low as orders weaken
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PMI readings below 50 represent economic contraction, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the flash PMI to fall again this month to 47.5. IHS Markit said that aside from the pandemic, the UK PMI was now pointing to the biggest quarterly fall in economic output since early 2009, during the global financial crisis, with a drop of 0.4%. The PMI showed new orders fell at the fastest rate since January 2021 and that employment growth had slowed. However, firms reported the weakest inflation pressures in more than a year, although they remained high by historic standards. Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Sterling ticks up, economic activity slows by less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov. 23 (Reuters) - Sterling ticked up on Wednesday, rising for a second day against a faltering U.S. dollar after preliminary British economic activity data beat expectations, though it still showed contraction was underway. Flash purchasing manager index (PMI) data on Wednesday showed British economic activity sticking near 21-month lows, adding to signs of recession as orders sank and employment growth slowed. Despite the latest PMI readings remaining below 50 - the threshold for contraction - the data was slightly better than economists polled by Reuters had expected, leading to a slightly firmer pound. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Tuesday that Britain's economy was set to lag major peers in 2023. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%.

☆ Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.

☆ Morning Bid: COVID blues
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Kirsty Needham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga:A nationwide spike in COVID-19 cases in China is again the main talking point for weary global markets on Tuesday as Beijing shut parks and museums and more cities resumed mass testing. Last week finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax hikes and spending cuts to fix the country's balance sheet and its economic policy reputation after former prime minister Liz Truss's controversial "mini-budget". Brent crude futures steadied at $87.85 a barrel after plunging by more than $5 a barrel to 10-month lows. Still, Brent crude is up 13% so far this year, marking one of the strongest performances in any asset class. Concerns about Genesis follow the collapse of FTX, one of the world's biggest crypto exchanges, which has shattered investor confidence.

☆ Europe to be hit hardest in global slowdown -OECD
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Leigh Thomas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The OECD said the global slowdown was hitting economies unevenly, with Europe bearing the brunt as Russia's war in Ukraine hits business activity and drives an energy price spike. Previously the OECD had expected 0.2% growth. The OECD had previously expected growth of only 1.5% this year in the world's biggest economy and its estimate for 2023 was unchanged. China, which is not an OECD member, was one of the few major economies expected to see growth pick up next year, after a wave of COVID lockdowns. As tighter monetary policy takes effect and energy price pressures ease, inflation across OECD countries was seen falling from more than 9% this year to 5.1% by 2024.

"Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish,” Guterres told delegates gathered in the seaside resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible,” he said. Signatories to the 2015 Paris climate agreement pledged to achieve a long-term goal of keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Guterres said that goal will only stay alive if the world can achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The World Trade Organization, meanwhile, said in a report published on Monday that it should tackle trade barriers for low carbon industries to address the role of global trade in driving climate change.

☆ A Core Question at COP27: Who Will Pay for Climate Change?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Elena Shao | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +10 min

When world leaders gather in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, this week for the annual United Nations climate summit, the debate over who bears financial responsibility for climate change will be center stage. Most Vulnerable, but Least Responsible for Climate Change A vulnerability index developed by the University of Notre Dame measures countries’ exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to the negative effects of climate change. 10 gigatons CO2 Climate change vulnerability index COUNTRY’s Total historical emissions 1 Somalia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but has contributed only a tiny fraction of global emissions. Pakistan experienced widespread and deadly flooding this summer that scientists linked to climate change. India 57.1 Gt CO2 0.5 Middle income countries China 249.4 Gt CO2 0.4 Russia 117.5 Gt CO2 Japan 66.7 Gt CO2 Higher income countries United States 421.7 Gt CO2 0.3 United Kingdom 74.9 Gt CO2 Germany 93.1 Gt CO2 Wealthy countries are responsible for half of the world’s emissions since 1850.

☆ Russia's economic decline deepens; Putin warns Moscow could pull out of grain deal again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's monthly economic downturn continued in September with gross domestic product declining by 5% year on year, according to the latest data from Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, reported by state news agency Interfax. The decline in economic output in September followed a 4% year-on-year decline in August, and a 4.3% decline in July. Still, Western agencies like the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, IMF and World Bank expect Russia's economic decline to be significant this year. Between them, they have forecast that Russia's GDP could drop by at least 5.5% in the best-case scenario to almost 9% in the worst-case scenario. For its part, Russia's ministry forecast that Russia's economic output would decline by 2.9% in 2022 and by 0.8% in 2023, before growing by 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, Interfax reported.

☆ U.S. faces 'larger-than-usual' risks in inflation battle, OECD says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A woman shops for groceries at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. "Inflation may prove surprisingly persistent, prompting more aggressive tightening of monetary policy," the Paris-based intergovernmental organisation said. There is rising concern among investors that the speed of Fed rate increases is stressing the global economy and outrunning the central bank's ability to monitor the effect it is having. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 and forecast that a third of the world economy will likely contract by next year. "Nonetheless, considerable flexibility is warranted and policy deliberations will benefit from careful monitoring of the impact," of the global factors driving up inflation, the OECD said, as well as "the tightening of financial conditions on the economy."

☆ Morning Bid: Unstable cable
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Supercharging an already rampant U.S. dollar around the globe, the sterling/dollar rate - nicknamed 'cable' by traders - went into virtual freefall at one point early on Monday. The pound's plunge comes ahead big auctions of both long-term and inflation-linked British government bonds this week and increasing liquidity issues in the gilt markets. read moreThe scale of the pound's losses and fiscal fears has many traders speculating about emergency rate rises by the Bank of England. Rate futures now price in a three-quarters-of-a-point hike to 3% on or before the BoE's next meeting on Nov. 2. read moreChina also acted in a different way on Monday to rein in yuan ongoing slump against the dollar.

☆ Energy, inflation crises risk pushing big economies into recession - OECD
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Leigh Thomas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

PARIS, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Global economic growth is slowing more than was forecast a few months ago in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as energy and inflation crises risk snowballing into recessions in major economies, the OECD said on Monday. The Paris-based policy forum was particularly pessimistic about the outlook in Europe - the most directly exposed economy to the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine. "The global economy has lost momentum in the wake of Russia's unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. GDP growth has stalled in many economies and economic indicators point to an extended slowdown," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a statement. The OECD forecast that the world's biggest economy would slow from 1.5% growth this year to only 0.5% next year, down from June forecasts for 2.5% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023.

☆ Energy, inflation crises risk pushing big economies into recession: OECD
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Global economic growth is slowing more than was forecast a few months ago in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as energy and inflation crises risk snowballing into recessions in major economies, the OECD said on Monday. "The global economy has lost momentum in the wake of Russia's unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. GDP growth has stalled in many economies and economic indicators point to an extended slowdown," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a statement. The OECD was particularly gloomy about Germany's Russian-gas dependent economy, forecasting it would contract 0.7% next year, slashed from a June estimate for 1.7% growth. The OECD warned that further disruptions to energy supplies would hit growth and boost inflation, especially in Europe where they could knock activity back another 1.25 percentage points and boost inflation by 1.5 percentage points, pushing many countries into recession for the full year of 2023.

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