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☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Inflation report due Tuesday has the potential to deliver some bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Just as Federal Reserve officials have grown optimistic that inflation is cooling, news could come countering that narrative. But it looks like 2023 will show that inflation was strong — perhaps even stronger than Wall Street expectations. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% and 5.4%, respectively. The Cleveland Fed's "Nowcast" tracker of CPI components is pointing toward inflation growth of 0.65% on a monthly basis and 6.5% year over year. Over time, the Cleveland Fed says its methodology outperforms other high-profile forecasters.

☆ Monday's rally raises the stakes ahead of inflation data release — listen to the 'Homestretch'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

I WOULD SAY IT DOES RAISE THESTAKES A LITTLE BIT SO TO SPEAKAHEAD OF CPI TOMORROW JUST INTERMS OF WE HAVE TO GET A GOODINFLATION NUMBER IN ORDER TOKEEP THE RALLY GOING. IF IT COMES IN A LITTLE BIT HOTOR MAYBE EVEN IF IT COMES IN ASEXPECTED, PERHAPS WE SEE SOMESELLING AND PROFIT TAKING THERE. YEAH, JUST IN TERMS OF WHAT ISWORKING TODAY, A LOT OF IT WILLBE TECH. SOME OF IT IS LED BY SOME OF OURNAMES, TOO, WHETHER IT ISMICROSOFT OR A LOT OF SEMISLEADING, NVIDIA, AMD. IT HAS LOST A LITTLE BIT OF ITSJUICE SINCE EARNINGS.

☆ Gold subdued as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold prices edged lower on Monday on a firmer dollar as investors squared positions before U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate-hike roadmap. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,861.95 per ounce, as of 0302 GMT. Bullion is often seen as an inflation hedge, but the opportunity cost of holding it is higher when interest rates are raised to combat inflation. Data on Tuesday is likely to show the U.S. monthly consumer prices climbing 0.4% month-on-month in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI data on Friday showed the consumer price index edged up 0.1% in December rather than dipping 0.1% as reported last month.

☆ U.S. consumer prices revised higher in December, November
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. monthly consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated and data for the prior two months was also revised up, which some economists said raised the risk of higher inflation readings in the months ahead. The consumer price index edged up 0.1% in December rather than dipping 0.1% as reported last month, the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI data showed on Friday. Data for November was also revised higher to show the CPI increasing 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously estimated. In October, the CPI rose 0.5%, revised up from the previously reported 0.4% increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.4% in December, instead of 0.3% as previously reported.

☆ American small business pessimism on recession, inflation, isn't relenting
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

That's according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for the first quarter of 2023. The Q1 survey was conducted from Jan. 23-Jan. 30 among over 2,300 small business owners across the country. "Small business owners have a more difficult time gaining benefits of economies of scale," said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center, whose own recent surveying of small business owners finds persistent pessimism. The new CNBC|SurveyMonkey data finds 75% of small business owners saying they are still facing rising costs of supplies and just over half (51%) supply chain disruptions. Politics is a factor in Main Street outlook Politics plays a role in any small business survey, with a demographic that skews conservative.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Stocks becalmed before potential CPI storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European futures rose 0.4%. Bonds held overnight gains and the U.S. dollar was pinned near a seven-month low at $1.0769 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. U.S. Treasuries added a little to overnight gains, with benchmark 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 3.5189% and 30-year yields down 4.4 bps to 3.6375%. Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Asia stocks hit 7-month high on China and CPI bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following gains for Wall Street indexes overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.5% and touched an almost seven-month high. Bonds were bought around the world overnight and the U.S. dollar wavered, to touch a seven-month low at $1.0776 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. "We expect a below consensus CPI print, which if it materialises, could push this rally even further." Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for December 2022 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

A decline in the annual inflation rate doesn't mean consumers saw deflation, which is when overall prices decrease. Categories with the largest changes in Decemberwatch nowWhile on the decline, the annual inflation rate remains at its highest since the early 1980s. Car and truck rental prices fell by 4.9%, while beef and veal prices fell by 3.1%, women's dresses by 2.3% and admission to sporting events by 1.5%. A decline in the inflation rate for electronics may seem counterintuitive when iPhones and other gadgets didn't necessarily come with steep discounts in 2022. Hourly wages have fallen by 1.7% in the past year, after accounting for inflation, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The euro edged up 0.01% against the greenback to $1.0733 at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT), just below its seven-month high of $1.07605 hit Monday. Investors now expect rates to peak just under 5% by June, before starting to come down later in the year. The pause in the dollar's decline comes as traders ready themselves for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar stabilises near seven-month lows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was at $1.0736, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7889 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the yen trading up 0.2% at 132.2 yen. The Japanese currency has been broadly strengthening after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

The euro was at $1.0731, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the Japanese yen at 131.7 yen. The currency has been broadly strengthening firm after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

☆ Famed bearish strategist Albert Edwards says the Fed will extract a high price to bring down inflation — and outlines why its success will only be temporary
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He says the combination of easy monetary policy and future stimulus will cause more inflation. True to form, Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards says investors shouldn't get too excited when interest rates level off. Edwards, who is famous for his bearish views on markets, says that rates usually peak after the Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates to a level that's too high. Still, Edwards says that core inflation is going to come down fast, as many of the causes of high inflation are now unwinding. It was only after the Fed raised interest rates to record levels that inflation finally "broke."

☆ Negative mood could pervade market next week as investors search for stability before the holidays
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Stocks were battered in the past week, as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. In the past week, stocks rallied Tuesday after the consumer price index showed a smaller-than-expected increase of 7.1% for November. "There's a lot of housing data next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. Ned Davis Research pointed out in a note this week that there has been a recent negative correlation between stocks and bonds, meaning stocks are falling and so are yields. Ned Davis expects the negative correlation to continue for the foreseeable future, and is watching the rolling one-year correlation between the S & P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield.

☆ Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

watch nowStocks initially roared higher following the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 800 points initially before easing a bit. Falling energy prices helped keep inflation at bay. Food prices, however, rose 0.5% and were up 10.6% from a year ago. Even with its monthly decline, the energy index was higher by 13.1% from November 2021. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.5% for the month, though they were still down 1.9% from a year ago.

☆ Futures rise ahead of CPI data, Fed rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.22%, S&P 0.29%, Nasdaq 0.34%Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Monday ahead of monthly consumer inflation data, while investors braced for the Federal Reserve meeting later this week. The Nasdaq (.IXIC) shed 4%, and S&P 500 (.SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. ET, Dow e-minis were up 73 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 11.25 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.34%. Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN.O) tumbled 4.3% after the company paused its partnership discussions with Mercedes-Benz Vans on electric van production in Europe. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

☆ Jim Cramer warns that growth stocks could see 'more horror' after release of CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer warns that growth stocks could see 'more horror' after release of CPI dataCramer gave his take on what could happen to the stock market on Thursday if the October CPI data comes in hot.

☆ This chart shows S&P 500 rally could resume if inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If inflation has peaked, then U.S. stocks have bottomed, according to strategists at Clocktower Group —and that's exactly what they think has happened. They then looked at the average S & P 500 return following peaks in the CPI since 1934, and found that the broad-market index rises. Economists also predict core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to gain 0.5% month over month. Inflation figures came in hotter than expected for September , with CPI rising 0.4% month over month —more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. While Clocktower strategists believe the bottom is in, they are urging caution right now.

☆ Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI accelerated 0.6% against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% increase. Another large jump in food prices boosted the headline number. That increase helped offset a 2.1% decline in energy prices that included a 4.9% drop in gasoline. Closely watched shelter costs, which make up about one-third of CPI, rose 0.7% and are up 6.6% from a year ago.

☆ Consumer inflation expected to have run hot in September, boosted by rent
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stoked by rising rent costs, consumer inflation is expected to have remained hot in September but slightly lower than August's pace. Economists expect the consumer price index rose 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August, according to Dow Jones. "The core inflation is going to be higher so it's still an inflation that hasn't peaked yet in many ways. Economists expect that services inflation continued to run hot in September, due to rising wages and labor shortages. "We expect shelter inflation to slow to a 0.4-0.5% monthly pace by year-end and peak at around 7% year-over-year early next year."

If the CPI shows that prices are still slow to come down, mortgage rates may tick up further. Mortgage rates aren't directly impacted by the federal funds rate, but investor expectations of how Fed decisions will impact the economy can push mortgage rates up or down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year fixed mortgage ratesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.66%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.9%, a slight decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data.

☆ With inflation still high, the Fed may be a long way from where it can stop hiking
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Current market pricing in fed funds futures indicates that the Fed's "terminal rate," or the point where it stops hiking, will hit 4.39% in April 2023. In fact, those expectations for higher rates are causing Wall Street economists to rethink their projections for growth. Goldman Sachs also has raised its expectations for rate hikes this year, though it still sees a terminal rate in the 4%-4.25% range. "Thus far, higher rates have inflicted little widespread pain on the real economy, so the Fed has room to continue hiking into restrictive territory," the Morgan Stanley economist said. "Bottom line is that the Fed needs more evidence that its actions are taking a bite out of the real economy."

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