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Euro zone inflation eases in February but core prices surge
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Indeed, underlying inflation, which filters out volatile food and fuel prices, an indicator closely watched by the ECB, jumped to 5.6% from 5.3%, coming well above expectations for a steady reading. Price growth in services, the biggest component in core inflation, accelerated to 4.8% from 4.4%, a big worry since the sector is especially sensitive to wage growth and the rise suggests an acceleration in labour costs. "High wage increases could imply that especially service price inflation could remain elevated in 2023-2024," Nordea analysts said in a note. "Given that the weight of services in the headline inflation is 44% and in core inflation 62%, elevated service price inflation will keep also the aggregate level inflation high." Industrial goods inflation meanwhile picked up to 6.8% from 6.7% while unprocessed food price growth surged to 13.6% from 11.3%.
Dollar slides, yuan gains on China PMI; hot inflation lifts euro
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen, euro and U.S. dollar banknotes of various denominations. Meanwhile, inflation data from five German states was largely unchanged in the high single digits in February, pointing to no let-up in stubborn price pressures at the national level. Preliminary pan-German inflation data is to be published at 1300 GMT, calculated using data from up to 16 German states. "The euro is being well supported by the inflation data," Nordea's Christensen said. "We're looking for a more solid euro area inflation reading tomorrow than we had expected going into this week."
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.2% to 103.81. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.05 crowns while the dollar was down 1% to 10.3405. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0690, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to $0.6918 ahead of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy meeting on Tuesday.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.1% to 103.91. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.059 crowns while the dollar was down 0.8% to 10.3604. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0687, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. "Euro rates are probably likely to stay at higher levels, whereas we think dollar rates will more easily turn lower," Turner added, which he said could support the euro in the first half of the year.
[1/4] A Russian police officer stands in front of a branch of the Raiffeisen Bank in Moscow, Russia, February 27, 2016. It made a net profit of roughly 3.8 billion euros last year, thanks in large part to a 2 billion euro plus profit from its Russia business. Of UniCredit's more than 20 billion euro total revenue last year, Russia accounted for more than 1 billion euros. Meanwhile, Russian savers lodged more than 20 billion euros with the bank, which offers a place to deposit funds with fewer sanctions risks. It banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks, unless the Russian President grants an exemption.
Sticky underlying inflation set to keep ECB on its toes
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The drop in headline inflation is unlikely to expunge concerns among conservative policymakers that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched, a worry reinforced by high underlying inflation on Wednesday. Inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices picked up to 7% from 6.9% while an even narrower measure watched closely by the ECB held steady at 5.2%, exceeding forecasts for 5.1%. Underlying inflation was driven by a jump in processed food and industrial goods prices but services inflation, a key worry because it reflects wage growth, eased a touch. Euro zone unemployment held steady at 6.6% in December, its lowest rate on record, separate data showed on Wednesday. Markets now expect ECB rates to peak at 3.5%, the highest rate in over 20 years, suggesting another 100 basis points of hikes after Thursday's move.
Dollar gains as central banks take central stage
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates by an additional 25 basis points this week, and investors will be watching for any new indications on how many more rate increases are likely. The question now is "does the dollar bounce or is this a nesting pattern before the next leg down," Chandler said. The euro fell 0.22% to $1.0844, erasing earlier gains after Spain's consumer prices rose 5.8% on a year-on-year basis in January, the first increase in six months. The dollar rose 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 130.53 . The BoE and ECB are both expected to raise rates by 50 basis points each this week.
Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast headline inflation of 9.9% while the Riksbank saw annual price increases running at 9.1% in its most recent forecast in November. The central bank targets 2 percent CPIF inflation. "This means that headline inflation will probably be close to the Riksbank's forecast again already in January. Central banks around the world have reacted sharply to soaring inflation, jacking up interest rates and squeezing mortgage borrowers. CPI inflation was 2.1 percent on the month and 12.3 percent on the year.
But now property prices are tumbling. Sweden's property prices are facing a serious drop as the country's former central bank governor warns of lofty household debt levels. Central bank rate hikesIn 2022, Sweden's central bank undertook an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle that ricocheted through the property market. So basically once the interest rate is stabilised, we don't expect prices to continue declining," Brodin said. Sweden isn't the only European country experiencing a plunging property market post-pandemic, with some economists forecasting a similar downturn of between 20% and 25% in Germany.
U.S. dollar down, still set for best year since 2015
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
As 2022 draws to a close, the dollar was set to notch a 7.9% annual gain against a basket of currencies - its biggest annual jump in seven years. "If it's weak growth, the U.S. dollar will fall. The British pound was last up 0.09% at $1.2063, on pace for a 10.8% annual drop . The Australian dollar, seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, was up 0.41% on the day at $0.681 , but set to drop 6.4% on the year overall. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has the dollar set to gain 13.7% versus the yen this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.
With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.308% on the day at 103.650 . The euro was up 0.22% on the day to $1.0684 , on track for a 6% annual loss versus the dollar, compared with last year's 7% drop. The British pound was last up 0.21% at $1.2077, set for a 10.7% annual drop . It was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has seen the dollar gain 14.5% versus the yen so far this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.
With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.3% on the day at 103.720 . "But for the near-term outlook we’re looking for some more performance in the euro versus the dollar." The euro was up 0.2% on the day at $1.0681 , on track for a 6.2% annual loss versus the dollar, compared to last year's 7% drop. The British pound was down 0.1%, set for a 11% annual drop . Still, it was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown.
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.
Of the 24 analysts polled ahead of Thursday's meeting, all but one had anticipated a quarter-point rise, while one had bet on an unchanged rate. Reuters Graphics"The policy rate will most likely be raised further in the first quarter of next year," Norges Bank said in a statement. The Norwegian currency, the crown, strengthened to 10.42 against the euro at 0921 GMT from 10.44 just before the rate announcement. Reuters Graphics"The forecasts for the Norwegian economy are more uncertain than normal, but if the economy evolves as anticipated, the policy rate will be around 3% next year," Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. Norges Bank, which targets core inflation of 2% over time, on Thursday raised its 2023 core inflation forecast to 5.2% from 4.8% seen in September.
Finnish startup Upright just landed a 5 million euros seed round (around $5.2 million). The platform reveals the impact the world's largest companies have on the environment and society. Check out the 18-slide pitch deck Upright used to raise its first round from VC Planet A.Annu Nieminen has always found solace in math. She couldn't find anyone working on a tool to show the overall negative or positive impact of businesses so decided to do it herself – "as the cliche goes," she told Insider. The Helsinki-based startup has been bootstrapped until now, as it announces a 5 million euros seed round (around $5.2 million).
The rival of banks including Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST), SEB (SEBa.ST) and Nordea (NDAFI.HE) said in a statement it would maintain its dividend policy of a 50% payout ratio and that any excess capital would be distributed to shareholders. "A sustainable bank is a profitable bank. Our target is therefore to reach a 15% return on equity," Chief Executive Jens Henriksson said. The bank, which is holding a capital markets day for investors and analysts on Tuesday, recorded a return on equity of 12.4% in the first nine months of this year. Reporting by Niklas Pollard, editing by Anna RingstromOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reactions to Apple supplier Foxconn's labour unrest
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Nov 29 (Reuters) - Thousands of employees at Foxconn's (2317.TW) flagship iPhone plant in China have quit since last week, as the major Apple (AAPL.O) supplier battles the latest bout of labour unrest that began in late October due to strict zero-COVID policy. "We see that in these times of unrest, Apple needs to intensify its dialogue with Foxconn management, and if possible Chinese authorities, to communicate in strong terms what its policy expectations are around labour rights, and find solutions to stabilise the situation." As a first step, we have contacted Apple to understand how management views and addresses the on-going situation and what measures they are taking." JANNE WERNING, HEAD OF ESG CAPITAL MARKETS & STEWARDSHIP AT UNION INVESTMENT"This shows the importance of labour standards in the supply chain. We expect Apple, as one of the main buyers, to reassert its influence at Foxconn.
"As long as the Fed see a stronger labour market, they don't have a big concern about tightening," Christensen said. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.2% at 105.75, after sliding 1.1% on Wednesday. The euro held onto gains after the account of the European Central Bank's October meeting showed policymakers feared that inflation may be getting entrenched, justifying their outlook for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he's betting the Hong Kong dollar will fall and that its peg to the U.S. dollar could break. The Japanese yen was one of the strongest gainers among major currencies, climbing 0.9% against the dollar to 138.285.
LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held onto losses on Thursday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting supported the view that the central bank would downshift and raise rates in smaller steps from its December meeting. "As long as the Fed see a stronger labour market, they don't have a big concern about tightening," Christensen said. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was little changed at 105.93, after sliding 1.1% on Wednesday. The euro was up 0.3% against the Swedish krone after Sweden's Riksbank raised rates by 75 basis points, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll. The Japanese yen was one of the strongest gainers among major currencies against the dollar, climbing 0.6% to 138.77.
But core inflation continues to pick up speed and thirteen of sixteen analysts in the poll forecast a hike to 2.5% when the central bank announces it policy decision on Nov. 24. "After high inflation in October, most indications point to a rate hike by at least 75 bps," banking group SEB said. The central bank forecast rates would peak at 2.5%. Households are already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis and the economy is expected to slow sharply - banking group Nordea expects a 2% contraction in GDP and the central bank a 0.7% fall in 2023. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) doubled its deposit rate to 1.5% at the end of October and promised more tightening in the months to come.
The central bank said the biggest risk to banks was their exposure to highly indebted commercial property companies, but added high levels of household debt were also a problem. "The economic development entails an increased risk for major credit losses among major Swedish banks," the central bank said in a regular report on financial stability. Property companies make up about 43% of banks' corporate lending. "In the worst case, higher borrowing costs could lead to property companies defaulting on their payments," the Riksbank said in its report. Shares in Sweden's major banks traded lower on Wednesday, reflecting a fall in the wider European index.
VIEW Bank of England lifts UK rates to 3% in historic hike
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised UK interest rates to 3% on Thursday in its largest rate hike since 1989 and warned of a "very challenging outlook" for the economy. Money markets showed traders now expect UK rates to peak at 4.6% by next September, compared to expectations of 4.8% just two days ago. UK bank stocks (.FTNMX301010) fell 0.8%BONDS: Yields on the two-year gilt were last up 1 basis points at 3.041%, compared with 3.064% before the BoE announced its decision. Rates markets are pricing another 50bps hike at each of the December and February meetings, although still reflect a lower terminal rate than just a week ago. ANDREW ALDRIDGE, PARTNER AT DEEPBRIDGE CAPITAL, LONDON"Quelling rampant inflation and kickstarting a slowing economy left the Bank facing a difficult balancing act, with today's interest rate hike to 3% hardly surprising in this context.
"We are raising the policy rate to curb inflation," Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. The future policy rate path will depend on how the economy evolves." The hike of 25 basis points meant that Norges Bank was sticking to its plan, Nordea Markets said. "A hike by 25 basis points in December is the most likely outcome too. That said, we cannot totally exclude the probability for a 50 basis points hike," its analysts said in a note to clients.
"Brazil is ready to retake its leadership in the fight against the climate crisis," Lula told a crowd of supporters in Sao Paulo. Silva said that Brazil would demand rich countries provide financing to poor countries to respond to climate change and give compensation for permanent "loss and damage" from climate change. Under Lula, Brazil will also discuss expanding its national targets for cutting climate-related emissions, said Silva, his former environment minister from 2003 to 2008. The firm, with roughly 237 billion euros ($234 billion) in assets under management, only owned about 100 million euros in Brazilian sovereign bonds when the prohibition took effect. Environmental advocates also cheered Lula's proposals for the Amazon, but cautioned that his agenda would face enormous political resistance.
SummarySummary Companies Swedbank operating profit tops forecastInterest income boosted by higher c.bank rateSays credit quality good despite turbulenceSTOCKHOLM, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) on Thursday reported a better-than-expected operating profit for the third quarter, underpinned by strong income from mortgages. The Swedish bank said in a statement its quarterly operating profit rose 24% to 8.70 billion crowns ($801 million) from 7.03 billion crowns posted last year, beating the 7.19 billion crowns seen by analysts in a Refinitiv poll. "Due to our position and business model, our net interest income benefits from this." Commission income fell to 3.63 billion crowns from 3.80 billion crowns last year, beating the 3.53 billion seen by analysts. Swedbank said high inflation, especially in the Baltic countries, meant that full-year expenses were likely to be around 1% higher than the cost cap of 20.5 billion crowns.
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