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The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say. AdvertisementExperts say the escalating war in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy. "War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementKaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by disrupting international supply chains and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation.
Persons: Helene, , Hurricane Helene, Ahmet Kaya, Kaya, Brent, Assaf Razin, Eitan Berglas, Oliver Allen, Allen, that's, Duncan Wrigley, China's, Wrigley Organizations: stoke, Service, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Eitan, of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oxford Locations: Hurricane, China, Israel, Iran, Oxford, China China, Beijing
watch nowThe U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. Strength in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy."
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Treasury yields dip ahead of September jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by one basis point at 3.84%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was also one basis point lower at 3.697%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower early Friday as investors gear up for the closely watched September jobs report. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after ADP data showed private payrolls grew by more than expected in September. Private companies added 143,000 jobs, ahead of August's figure of 103,000 and a forecast of 128,000. That was given as justification for the jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut carried out by the Fed last month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer calls September's nonfarm payroll growth a "no landing" number, meaning we don't have to waste energy debating a hard economic landing versus a soft landing. AMD stock is starting to reflect that, he added, but it hasn't had nearly the gains of rival Club stock Nvidia this year. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, September's, Jim, Lisa Su, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Wells, It's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Club, AMD, Nvidia, Bank, Fed Locations: U.S, Israel, San Francisco, Wells Fargo
The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.
Persons: , Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked
Job interviews: How young people can ace them
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Kristen Rogers | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
CNN —Megan Rathmell thought she’d bombed her job interview earlier this year, assuming her nervousness and lack of preparation had cost her the opportunity. SDI Productions/E+/Getty ImagesWhat Rathmell learned from her boss mirrors what hiring managers say: Some Gen Z college graduates are unprepared for job interviews or behave unprofessionally during job interviews. Some people think they can just wing a job interview, said Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at ResumeBuilder. How to handle the actual job interviewDressing professionally for both in-person and virtual interviews is important regardless of whether it’s for a fast-food restaurant, retail store or office job, experts said. When you’re given the chance to ask questions, ask what you’ve prepared.
Persons: Megan Rathmell, she’d, , , Rathmell, unprofessionally, Nathan Mondragon, Mondragon, Stacie Haller, Haller, you’ve, it’s, Nicolas Roulin, you’ll, Roulin, they’re, don’t, , you’re, they’ll Organizations: CNN, SDI, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Saint Mary’s University, United, Services Locations: Virginia, ResumeBuilder, Canada, Colorado, New York
Treasury yields rise as attention shifts to jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over two basis points to 3.8056%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.6539% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy. Investors assessed the state of the economy as attention turned to the latest jobs data. Figures from ADP on Wednesday showed that private payrolls grew by more than expected in September, with private companies adding 143,000 jobs.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve
Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, , Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran
U.S. stock futures were flat on Thursday night as traders looked ahead to the widely anticipated release of September's jobs report on Friday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also unchanged. These moves came after the major averages ended Thursday's trading session with losses. U.S. oil futures climbed about 5% Thursday, weighing on the major averages. Indeed, all three major averages are already on pace for weekly losses.
Persons: Dow Jones, Barbara Doran, I'd, it's, Doran Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow, BD8 Capital Partners Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S, East, Iran, Israel
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.
Persons: , Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran
President Biden said on Tuesday that his administration will be "monitoring for any price gouging activity" that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said "foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open." UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk's total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Acting Secretary Julie Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers."
Persons: Biden, Longshoremen, majeure, Daggett, Harold Daggett, Lars Jenson, Pete Buttigieg, Julie Su, Taft, Hartley, Buttigieg, Larry Lindsey, Su, Peter Friedmann, I've, nonfarm, Helene, switchers, they're, Jim Bianco, CNBC's, Peter Boockvar, Alan Baer, Steve Lamar, Taft Hartley, Lamar, CNBC's Jeff Cox Organizations: CMA, U.S, United States Maritime Alliance, Vespucci, Federal Reserve, Transportation, Labor, International Longshoremen's Association, UBS, Maersk, Federal Maritime Commission, ILA, Boeing, The Lindsey Group, Agriculture Transportation Coalition, Bianco Research, Bleakley Financial, USA, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Biden Administration, Locations: East, Gulf Coast, U.S, autoworkers
Apple Intelligence : Club stock Apple turned positive Wednesday, despite more analysts trimming their 2024 iPhone 16 estimates. Interestingly, Apple Intelligence is the sixth top reason someone would buy a new iPhone, according to a recent survey by JPMorgan analysts. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, payrolls, Jensen Huang, Levi Strauss, Michelle Gass, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., U.S, Israel . Semiconductor, Broadcom, Nvidia, Accenture, Financial Times, Amazon, Apple Intelligence, Apple, JPMorgan, Club, Constellation Brands, Modelo, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Iran, Israel, Corona, Pacifico
The best-case scenario for stocks is if Friday's jobs report comes in slightly above consensus, according to JPMorgan. Here are the bank's five scenarios: Above 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 trades flat or as much as 0.5% higher. Between 160,000 to 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5%. Between 140,000 to 160,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 rises by 0.75% to 1.25%. Between 110,000 to 140,000 jobs added: JPMorgan traders see the S & P 500 sliding between 0.5% and 1.5%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, JPMorgan's, Michael Feroli, nonfarm Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Locations: U.S
Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August's disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring. While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as "solid" while noting that it has "clearly cooled" over the past year.
Persons: Dow Jones, switchers, Job, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Companies, Labor, Federal Reserve
Gold prices flat as dollar strength counters safe-haven demand
  + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bar bullions ingot, selective focus, crisis safe haven for investment or reserve for country economics. Gold prices were flat on Wednesday, as a firmer dollar partially offset safe-heaven demand amid heightened Middle East tensions, while investors awaited U.S. data for further economic cues. Spot gold held its ground at $2,659.79 per ounce, as of 0325 GMT, after rising more than 1% in the previous session. "Gold benefited from safe-haven demand during a risk-off session on Tuesday. Meanwhile, physical demand for gold in key markets has dropped due to high prices, with some retail consumers selling their holdings to lock in profits, industry players and analysts said.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Bullion, Matt Simpson, payrolls, Simpson Organizations: Israel, Index, Federal Reserve, NFP, Traders Locations: Iran, Tehran
ET the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 3.7638%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than two basis points lower to 3.6289%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to fresh economic data and weighed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Monday, he indicated that if economic data remained consistent, two more rate cuts could come this year but in smaller, 25-basis-point increments. More Fed policymakers are set to give remarks throughout this week, which investors will be following closely alongside the latest data releases.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Investors, P Global U.S, Manufacturing, ISM, PMI, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Survey
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock exchange during morning trading on May 17, 2024. Stock futures slipped in overnight trading following a sour start to the new trading month and final quarter of 2024. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 80 points, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures lost about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. In after-hours action, Nike slid about 7% after the sneaker giant pulled its full-year guidance ahead of its CEO change. Ahead of Friday's keynote September jobs report, Wall Street on Wednesday will gain insight into the state of private payrolls with ADP's Employment Survey.
Persons: Elliott Hill, Ryan Detrick, nonfarm Organizations: New York Stock, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nike, LPL, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, U.S, Treasury, ADP's, Federal Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon
A strong jobs report would boost low-quality stocks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts say. AdvertisementInvestor eyes are locked on the upcoming jobs report, due Friday. If it comes in strong, that will be great news for less-loved, lower-quality stocks, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say. Morgan Stanley's equity-strategy team is also keyed in on the jobs report. Wilson also highlighted the jobs report as a possible catalyst for rotation towards low quality in the stock market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, , David Kostin, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Service, firm's
Another pivotal U.S. jobs report this week will determine the market's direction, and Bank of America strategists think it is likely to push stocks to more record highs. The September jobs report is due Friday, with the economy expected to have added 144,000 jobs, up from 142,000 jobs in August, according to a Dow Jones estimate. It projects payrolls grew by 150,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. For options traders, Bank of America is recommending buying calls on cyclical equities, which currently offer the best value across asset classes. It said options on SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) are the most attractive right now to play the jobs data.
Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Regional Banking
Gold pulls back but dovish Fed sets it for best quarter since 2016
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,653.38 per ounce, as of 0404 GMT, owing to a rise in the U.S. dollar . A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. Bullion has risen slightly over 14% so far this quarter, its best since January 2016. This boosted expectations of an another outsized interest rate cut at the Fed's November policy meeting.
Persons: Tim Waterer, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Federal, KCM, U.S, Sunday Locations: Siberian, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, U.S, Israel, Yemen, Lebanon
The yield on the 10-year Treasury added more than 3 basis points to 3.787%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.637% after rising more than 7 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields advanced Monday as investors considered the state of the economy after the latest data release and commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Investors were assessing the state of the economy, including the path ahead for inflation and what this could mean for interest rates after the release of key data. The 12-month inflation rate came in at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Investors, PCE, Fed, PMI
Stock futures were little changed on Monday evening, after the S&P 500 closed at a record to end September. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were just below the flatline. In the regular session, the S&P 500 and the 30-stock Dow notched closing records. All three major averages posted monthly gains, and it was the first positive September for the S&P 500 since 2019. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Composite also ended the third quarter in positive territory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Dave Sekera Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, Investors, Morningstar, Traders, International Longshoremen's Association, Gulf Coasts, U.S, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Survey, P Global U.S, Manufacturing, ISM, PMI Locations: New York City, U.S, Gulf
The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, so we're getting closer. In the week ahead, we get quarterly results from Club name Constellation Brands and the government's September employment report. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs This coming Friday's big update on the state of the labor market is the main market event and could have big implications for Wall Street and the path for Fed rate cuts. However, the market took the news in stride because recent weakness in the stock was already reflecting the sluggish sales environment. ET: September ADP Report Before the bell: Conagra (CAG) After the bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Thursday, Oct. 3 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Thursday's, Jerome Powell, we'll, We're, Levi Strauss, LEVI, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Core PCE, GE Healthcare, Costco, Constellation Brands, Wall, ADP, Pacifico, McCormick &, PMI, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Covid, Corona, New York City
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago
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