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New Construction Surprises to the Upside in October
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Tim Smart | Nov. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +2 min
The pace of new construction quickened in October as both building permits and housing starts rose despite elevated mortgage rates, the government reported on Friday. New housing starts were 1.372 million compared to 1.346 million a month earlier. “A good inflation report and steadily declining mortgage rates provide some relief to the market. Also on a positive note, mortgage rates fell this week following the CPI and the resultant drop in bond yields from their recent highs. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average of 7.44% in the week ending Nov. 16, a drop from 7.5% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said on Thursday.
Persons: Wells, , Lisa Sturtevant, homebuyers, Freddie Mac, Odeta Kushi Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, National Association of Home Builders, MLS, homebuilders, , CPI, “ Builders, First Locations: Midwest, West
Washington, DC CNN —Homebuilder confidence dropped for the fourth month in a row in November as mortgage rates neared 8%. But recent economic data suggests housing conditions may improve in coming months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in November fell six points to 34, according to the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Thursday morning. Specificially, Dietz said, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates down closer to or below 7.5%. In November, 60% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms, down slightly from 62% in October.
Persons: , Alicia Huey, ” Huey, NAHB, Robert Dietz, NAHB’s, Specificially, Dietz, ” Dietz, Freddie Mac Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
High mortgage rates continue to weigh on the nation's homebuilders, leading to an increase in price cuts to lure buyers. But builders are cautiously optimistic about recent signs that interest rates may move lower soon. Homebuilder sentiment fell six points to 34 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment is down 22 points since July and is now at the lowest level since the end of last year. "In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%," he said.
Persons: Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Market, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
The larger-than-expected increase in sales last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed that the new housing market continued to be supported by a chronic shortage of previously owned houses. That is leading to very different dynamics in different parts of the housing market." New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders reported last week that about a third of builders reported cutting home prices in October, a 10-month high, with the average price discount at 6%. The housing market likely stabilized in the third quarter, thanks to strong homebuilding and new home sales.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Bill Adams, resales, Freddie Mac, Dan Hnatkovskyy, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Midwest ., National Association of Home Builders, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, Dallas, Northeast, West, Midwest
The report reflects the uneasy state of new construction, with builders facing the strain of high mortgage rates and increased costs for building materials. “To keep buyers interested, many builders have been offering upgrades or buying down mortgage rates, but rising home prices coupled with mortgage rates approaching 8% means there will be fewer buyers in the market to entice,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said. It is the week’s second report on the state of the new housing market. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index revealed that builder confidence fell for the third consecutive month in October. "Today’s September housing starts report reflects the fragility of the real estate market,” said Travis Hodges, managing director at insurance broker VIU by HUB.
Persons: , , Lisa Sturtevant, Alicia Huey, Travis Hodges Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, MLS, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Realtors Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Florida, California
Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since January, as builders contend with a market dominated by high mortgage rates and costs for financing. The monthly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 4 points to 40 in October, and September's read was revised down 1 point. Builders point squarely to mortgage rates, which are now at a 23-year high. Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder sentiment in the Northeast fell 4 points to 50 and in the Midwest dropped 3 points to 39. In the South it fell 5 points to 49, and in the West it fell 6 points to 41.
Persons: September's, Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Builders, Midwest, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, West
Stubbornly high mortgage rates have taken a toll on builder sentiment, the group said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHomebuilder confidence just plunged to its lowest mark in 10 months, the National Association of Home Builders announced on Tuesday. The group cited stubbornly high mortgage rates as the primary drag on confidence. On Tuesday, rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.92%, according to Mortgage News Daily's index. Buyers and sellers alike have largely been kept on the sidelines as mortgage rates hover near multi-decade highs and moving homes looks unattractive.
Persons: , Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, Dietz Organizations: Service, National Association of Home Builders, Market, Mortgage, Builders, Federal Locations: Wells Fargo
Adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Meanwhile, the average rate for a kind of adjustable rate mortgage — a 5/1 ARM — dropped to 6.33% from 6.49%. (Freddie Mac, which provides an average that CNN covers weekly, does not track interest rates for adjustable rate mortgages). When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Fixed rate vs ARMWhile the overwhelming share of loans are still fixed-rate mortgages, ARMs are becoming more attractive in the current higher-rate environment. Generally, homeowners with higher mortgage rates will pay more in interest rather than principal for a longer time than those with lower interest rates.
Persons: , Freddie Mac, , Bob Broeksmit, Melissa Cohn, Cohn, National Association of Home Builders —, ” Cohn, Kaylin Dillon, Jay Zigmont, ’ ” Zigmont, you’re Organizations: DC CNN, Mortgage, Association, CNN, , ARM, Fed, Federal Reserve, William, Treasury, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Childfree Locations: Washington, Israel, Kansas, Mississippi
With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, , BCA Research, , National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York
Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.
Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, , Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York
If officials were to announce this ahead of their next meeting, this could indeed allow mortgage rates to cool off a bit. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.49%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.78% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased significantly in 2022.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a "historic shortage" of available homes for sale. The National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors said they wrote the letter "to convey profound concern sharedamong our collective memberships that ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path is contributing to recent interest rate hikes and volatility." The groups ask the Fed not to "contemplate further rate hikes" and not to actively sell its holdings of mortgage securities at least until the housing market has stabilized. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the group said. The letter comes as the Fed is weighing how it should proceed with monetary policy after raising its key borrowing rate 11 times since March 2022.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, of Governors, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors
Housing trade groups urged the Federal Reserve to stop hiking interest rates immediately. The NAHB, MBA, and NAR warned that a hard landing is likely, unless the Fed takes two "simple steps." AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve needs to take two "simple steps" to assure that it sticks a soft landing in the economy, according to three housing industry trade groups. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe trade groups pointed out that housing activity accounts for an estimated 16% of GDP in the US. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter concluded.
Persons: , Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, NAR, Fed, Service, Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, Treasury, MBS
Visitors walk across the U.S. Supreme Court plaza on the first day of the court's new session on Oct. 2, 2023. Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty ImagesWhy the CFPB's funding may be unconstitutionalThe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau headquarters in Washington. Lawmakers created the federal agency to protect consumers from predatory financial practices. The Supreme Court ruled against the agency in a 2020 case, Seila Law v. CFPB, finding part of its structure to be unconstitutional but ultimately keeping the agency intact. Instead, the CFPB's funding isn't authorized by Congress each year.
Persons: Bill Clark, Washington . Samuel Corum, Dodd, Frank, , John Coleman, Orrick, Coleman, Rohit Chopra, Tom Williams Organizations: U.S, Supreme, Cq, Inc, Getty, Financial, Bloomberg, Lawmakers, U.S ., Appeals, Circuit, Congress, Federal Reserve, 5th Circuit, Congressional Research Service, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington .
Sales of newly built homes fell 8.7% in August from July, to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 675,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census count is based on signed contracts during the month, and mortgage rates took a sharp jump higher. The median price of a newly built home sold in August was $430,300, a drop of 2% compared with August of last year. Homebuilders have been lowering prices as well as offering more incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. One of the nation's largest homebuilders, Lennar, recently reported strong earnings, but that was for a quarter where mortgage rates hadn't hit their highest yet.
Persons: Imogen Pattison, Homebuilders, Stuart Miller, Miller, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: . Census, Mortgage News, Capital Economics, National Association of Home Builders
US new home sales tumble in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
New home sales plunged 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. July's sales pace was revised higher to 739,000 units from the previously reported 714,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, falling to a rate of 700,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. At August's sales pace it would take 7.8 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 7.0 months in July.
Persons: Octavio Jones, Freddie Mac, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Data, National Association of Home Builders, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, West, Midwest, Northeast
New Home Construction Tumbles in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Tim Smart | Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +2 min
The pace of new construction slowed in August amid high mortgage rates and weakening demand, the federal government reported on Tuesday. Housing starts fell 11.3% in August to an annual rate of 1.28 million, the lowest since the summer of 2020. Builders typically pull permits in anticipation of demand, but housing starts occur when lots are ready to be cleared following deposits on future purchases. “The combination of high interest rates, high pricing, and limited inventory has continued to plague the housing market. “And on the supply-side front, builders continue to grapple with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers, which is further adding to housing affordability woes.
Persons: , Kelly Mangold, Alicia Huey, Ksenia Potapov Organizations: Housing, Real Estate Consulting, National Association of Home Builders, First American Financial Corp, Locations: Birmingham , Alabama
Washington, DC CNN —US home building sank in August, dropping 11.3% from July levels, as mortgage rates stayed elevated amid lingering inflation. After rising in July, new home starts dropped in August as mortgage rates climbed back to their late 2022 peak. “The combination of high interest rates, high pricing, and limited inventory has continued to plague the housing market,” said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting. “In many cases, even repurchasing their same home at today’s mortgage rates would be out of a typical buyer’s price range.”More than 90% of homeowners have a mortgage rate under 6% and many have rates closer to 2% or 3%. Home builder confidence was lower in September, according to a separate report from the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.
Persons: , Kelly Mangold, Mangold, Organizations: DC CNN, Housing, Census, Real Estate Consulting, , National Association of Home Builders Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
The decline in housing starts reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday was the largest in a year and occurred across the board. Housing starts tumbled 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020. Data for July was revised lower to show starts accelerating to a rate of 1.447 million units instead of the previously reported 1.452 million units. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.3% to a rate of 941,000 units last month. They were boosted by a 14.8% surge in multi-family housing permits to a rate of 535,000 units.
Persons: Mike Blake, homebuilding, Daniel Vielhaber, Hilary, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, Nationwide, Reuters, U.S, Treasury, National Association of Home Builders, Oxford Economics, Realtors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, Columbus , Ohio, homebuilding, Northeast, Midwest, Wells Fargo, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
Residential single family homes construction by KB Home are shown under construction in the community of Valley Center, California, U.S. June 3, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Blake/ Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder confidence fell for a second month in September, with optimism dropping to the lowest since April as high interest rates cut into affordability for prospective buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo homebuilder sentiment index fell to 45 this month from a reading of 50 in August, when builder sentiment had fallen for the first time since December. Since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022, mortgage rates have risen, and have held above 7% since early August, the highest level since 2002. Sales expectations among builders fell in September amid lower pricing, with the six-month outlook for home sales falling to 49 from 55 the month prior.
Persons: Mike Blake, Fargo, , Robert Dietz, Amina Niasse, Andrea Ricci Organizations: KB, REUTERS, National Association of Home Builders, , Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S
Washington, DC CNN —Home builder confidence took a hit in September as average mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan stayed above 7%. “The two-month decline in builder sentiment coincides with when mortgage rates jumped above 7% and significantly eroded buyer purchasing power,” said Alicia Huey of the NAHB. All three dimensions of the new housing market evaluated saw declines in September: The index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 51. “High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist. As mortgage rates stayed above 7% over the last month, more builders cut prices to boost sales, according to NAHB.
Persons: , Alicia Huey, Huey, Robert Dietz, That’s Organizations: DC CNN —, National Association of Home Builders, , NAHB Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
U.S. homebuilders are feeling pessimistic about their business for the first time in seven months, thanks to stubbornly high mortgage rates. Builder confidence in the single-family housing market fell 5 points in September to 45 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Current sales conditions fell 6 points to 51, and sales expectations in the next six months also dropped 6 points to 49. Builders cite weaker affordability due to higher mortgage rates. While builders are still benefiting from the lack of supply on the existing sales market, they are also facing hurdles other than higher interest rates.
Persons: Robert Dietz, NAHB's, Alicia Huey Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Builders Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Midwest, West
Inflation is expected to slow because of these trends
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —US inflation has slowed steadily from its four-decade peak last June, and it’s expected to cool further thanks to easing car prices and rents. Despite the expected inflation drop, she said investors anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady and not cut them anytime soon. “It may take a little bit longer than expected for inflation to come down to 2%, and inflation being in a 2-3% range next year is reasonable,” she said. Tuesday: Canada’s statistics agency releases August inflation data. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: we’re, ” José Torres, , , Sarah House, Saira Malik, Michelle Toh, ” Read, General Mills, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Interactive Brokers, CNN, , , United Auto Workers, CPI, San, San Francisco Fed, National Association of Home Builders, US Commerce Department, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, FedEx, General, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Darden Restaurants, The Bank of England, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Global Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, China, Michelle Toh ., Japan’s
The Supreme Court will soon hear a case challenging the CFPB's funding structure. Housing groups also warned of chaos in the industry if CFPB's funding is upended. But the Supreme Court threat to the CFPB's funding structure "would raise significant concerns for the stability of the housing market and the financial system more broadly," Chopra said. "Reverting to a system without these regulations would create uncertainty for the mortgage industry and the economy," Chopra said. At this point, it's unclear how broadly the Supreme Court will rule, and if it will strike down the CFPB's funding structure entirely.
Persons: Rohit Chopra, , Chopra, homebuyers Organizations: Housing, Service, Financial, Community Financial Services Association of America Ltd, Consumer Financial, Bureau, Federal Reserve, Fifth Circuit, Mortgage Collaborative National Conference, Congress, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Realtors Locations: Wall, Silicon
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