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The primary season is about to shift into overdrive with Super Tuesday, when Republican voters in 15 states will cast their votes. Polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is very likely to win most, if not all, of these contests. I spoke with Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, about when Trump’s nomination could become a lock. If the polls are right, there’s really only one scenario: Trump finding himself within easy striking distance of the nomination. Put it together, and Trump could easily win more than 90 percent of the delegates available on Super Tuesday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn, — Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson —, Nate, It’s, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, there’s, Trump, Haley, Israel’s, Haiyun Jiang, The New York Times Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, you’re, You’re, ” Trump, Netanyahu, Biden, Israel —, America’s, ”, John Bolton, — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Michael Gold Read Organizations: Republican, Trump, The, Democratic, Republican National Convention, California —, The New York Times, Univision, Republican Party, Hezbollah, Trump Republican Party, Biden, Democratic Party, “ Locations: Iowa , New Hampshire, California, Georgia, Hawaii , Mississippi, Washington, Arizona, Florida , Illinois , Kansas, Ohio, Gaza . Credit, Gaza, Israel, Lebanese, Rock Hill, S.C, Trump, Michigan

☆ What Does the Uncommitted Vote in Michigan Mean for 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

In Tuesday night’s results in Michigan, around one in eight Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary — a protest of the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel and the war in Gaza. In some predominantly Arab American precincts in Dearborn, around three in four Democrats cast a protest vote for uncommitted. Having one in eight Democrats vote uncommitted in an uncontested primary is not wholly unusual. As recently as the last time a Democratic president sought re-election, in 2012, 11 percent of Michigan Democratic caucusgoers voted for “uncommitted” instead of for Barack Obama. Having three in four Democratic primary voters in Arab American communities do it, on the other hand, is an eye-popping figure.

Persons: “, Michigan Democratic caucusgoers, uncommitted ”, Barack Obama, Biden Organizations: Democratic, Biden, uncommitted, Michigan Democratic Locations: Michigan, Israel, Gaza, Dearborn, Arab

☆ Debbie Dingell Breaks Down Michigan’s Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Katie Glueck | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Debbie Dingell is big on tough love. “She’s very quiet,” President Biden joked recently as he campaigned with the Democratic congresswoman in Michigan, her home state. Move.’”For years, Dingell has sounded alarms when she detects peril for her party in Michigan, a critical battleground state. Overall, as of late Wednesday afternoon Biden had won 81.1 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary; the “uncommitted” effort drew 13.2 percent. (My Times colleague Nate Cohn has a full breakdown of the Michigan vote in his newsletter, The Tilt.)

Persons: Debbie Dingell, “, Biden, ‘ Joe, Dingell, Donald Trump, “ uncommitted, Nate Cohn Organizations: Democratic, Israel, Democrats Locations: Michigan, Gaza

☆ Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s still early in the primary season, but a whiff of a possible polling error is already in the air. In Iowa, the final 538 polling average showed Mr. Trump leading Nikki Haley by 34 points with a 53 percent share. In South Carolina, Mr. Trump led by 28 points with 62 percent. In the scheme of primary polls, these aren’t especially large misses. But with Mr. Trump faring well in early general election polls against President Biden, even a modest Trump underperformance in the polls is worth some attention.

Persons: It’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Biden Organizations: Trump Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

☆ On Tom Suozzi and the Long Island Special Election - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last week, Tom Suozzi won handily in the special election in New York’s Third Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by the serial fraudster George Santos — reclaiming the seat that Suozzi previously held. This was the latest in a series of Democratic victories in special elections, victories that seem on their face to run counter to polls showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race. As Nate Cohn, The Times’s lead polling analyst, has been at pains to point out, there isn’t necessarily a contradiction here. Those who vote in special elections aren’t representative of those who will vote in November, and they may be especially motivated by hot-button issues, especially abortion, that have favored Democrats lately. Furthermore, Long Island, on which N.Y.-03 lies, is an unusual place — something I, who mostly grew up there, can personally confirm.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, George Santos —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Congressional, Democratic Locations: New, Long

☆ The Republican House Majority Just Became Even Smaller
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When the Democrat Tom Suozzi won yesterday in a special election in New York, it narrowed the Republican majority in the House to the point where the party can only afford two defections on otherwise party-line votes. It also means that any three Republicans could tank a bill, or that they could threaten to do so to gain leverage. Suozzi’s eight-point victory in a district last won by a Republican could offer Democrats a playbook for competing on turf where President Biden and the party remain deeply unpopular. Suozzi broke with party orthodoxy on crime, taxes and, above all, immigration, calling on Biden to shut down the southern border. Suozzi’s election, however, probably doesn’t add much clarity to November’s presidential contest: Over the last three decades, there has been essentially zero relationship between presidential results and special election outcomes, our political analyst Nate Cohn wrote.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, Biden, Suozzi, Nate Cohn Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Biden Locations: New York

☆ For Voters, When Does Old Become Too Old?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When a reporter asked President Biden on Thursday night about concerns about his age, his first instinct was to reject the premise. A clear majority of Americans harbor serious doubts about it, polls show. Of all the reasons Mr. Biden has narrowly trailed Mr. Trump in the polls for five straight months, this is arguably the single most straightforward explanation. It’s what voters are telling pollsters, whether in open-ended questioning about Mr. Biden or when specifically asked about his age, and they say it in overwhelming numbers. In Times/Siena polling, even a majority of Mr. Biden’s own supporters say he’s too old to be an effective president.

Persons: Biden, Biden’s “, ”, Donald J, Trump, Mr, Biden’s Organizations: Times, Mr Locations: Siena

☆ Opinion | The Challenges of an Aging President
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Because of his age and his determination to run for a second term, President Biden is taking the American public into uncharted waters. He is the oldest person ever to serve as president, is the oldest ever to run for re-election and, if he is successful, would be 86 at the end of his tenure. Ronald Reagan, by comparison, was an unprecedented 77 when he ended his second term in 1989. A remarkably broad swath of the American public — both Mr. Biden’s supporters and his detractors — have expressed increasing doubts about his ability to serve for another five years because of his age. His assurances, in other words, didn’t work.

Persons: Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden’s, —, Nate Cohn, Biden’s ‘, ’, Robert K, Mr, Hur, snappish, teleprompters, Donald Trump Organizations: “, Times, Mr Locations: Siena

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

☆ Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s approval ratings are as low as ever. An NBC poll this weekend was only the latest example, showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by five percentage points nationwide, with his approval down to 37 percent. But over the last few months, the conditions for a Biden comeback have gradually come into place. But for the first time since the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden has an unmistakable political opening. The two big developments have come on what voters say are Mr. Biden’s biggest weaknesses on the issues: the economy and the border.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: NBC, Biden, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicPresident Biden has struggled to sell Americans on the positive signs in the economy under his watch, despite figures that look good on paper. That could have important ramifications for his re-election hopes. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The Times, explains why, to understand the situation, it may help to look back at another election, 76 years ago.

Persons: Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Amazon Music, The Times

☆ Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On one hand, there’s polling. On the other hand, there’s election results. Almost every time polls bring Democrats down, there’s a special election result to bring them back up. The limitations of relying on special elections, on the other hand, are not as well understood. Unlike polls, special election results are hard facts, which make them tempting to view as a clear read into the 2024 electorate.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, there’s, Roe, Wade Organizations: Trump . Voters, Daily Kos

☆ It’s Fair to Ask: Is the Republican Race Over?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Is the Republican presidential primary over already? Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald J. Trump on Tuesday night. Mr. Trump’s 11-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. What makes Mr. Trump’s victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Ms. Haley’s very best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her very best opportunity to win a state, period.

Persons: New Hampshire’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump’s, Haley’s Organizations: Republican, New Locations: ”, New Hampshire

☆ An Important Victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald Trump last night. Trump’s 12-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. In fact, he won by a smaller margin than many pre-election polls suggested. What makes Trump’s victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Haley’s best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her best opportunity to win a state, period.

Persons: New Hampshire’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley’s Organizations: Republican, New Locations: ”, New Hampshire

☆ The Needle Returns for the New Hampshire Republican Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Nate Cohn | Irineo Cabreros | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Once New Hampshire primary results begin to arrive starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time tonight, The Times will start publishing a live estimate of the final result, better known as the Needle. How to watch the Needle tonightOur results pages feature graphics designed to help you understand how each candidate is faring. The hypothetical chart below shows how our live estimates work. Our best estimate for each candidate’s final vote share is shown along with a range of estimates for where things might end up.

Organizations: New, Times Locations: New Hampshire

☆ The Lost DeSantis Moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

There are countless reasons Mr. DeSantis fell apart and ultimately ended his campaign Sunday — including that his opponent proved once again to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Mr. DeSantis might have won the nomination in most other years, if he hadn’t been going against a former president. But rather than dwell on his losing campaign, it’s worth returning to his apparent strength at the outset — that brief moment when Mr. DeSantis, or at least the idea of Mr. DeSantis, routinely led Mr. Trump in high-quality head-to-head polls. In the eight years since Donald J. Trump won the Republican nomination, this was the only moment when Republican voters appeared willing to go a different direction. Mr. DeSantis didn’t capitalize on the moment, but nonetheless it’s the only glimpse we’ve had into the post-Trump Republican Party.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, DeSantis, Trump, Donald J, we’ve Organizations: Republican, Trump Republican Party

☆ Last Exit Before Trump: New Hampshire
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Let’s be blunt about the stakes of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. If Donald J. Trump wins decisively, as the polls suggest, he will be on track to win the Republican nomination without a serious contest. Ron DeSantis’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Mr. Trump is only the latest example. The polling by state isn’t much better for Nikki Haley, the only remaining opponent for Mr. Trump. He leads Ms. Haley by at least 30 points in all of the states after New Hampshire until Super Tuesday.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis’s, Nikki Haley, Haley Organizations: New, Trump, New Hampshire, Super Locations: New Hampshire, Iowa, New

☆ Even the Battle for Second Turned Out Well for Trump in Iowa
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Better still for Mr. Trump, neither Mr. DeSantis nor Ms. Haley posted a strong second-place showing that might have bestowed clear momentum for future races. He also excelled among white evangelical Christians and self-described “very conservative” voters — two groups that held him back here eight years ago. Mr. DeSantis was dealt a serious setback to his already ailing candidacy. No upcoming contest plainly offers Mr. DeSantis a better chance of victory, and his poll numbers are even weaker in the states ahead. Either way, Ms. Haley has overtaken Mr. DeSantis as Mr. Trump’s nearest, if still distant, rival.

Persons: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, DeSantis’s, Trump’s, playbook, he’s Organizations: Iowa Republican Locations: New Hampshire, Iowa, state’s, Johnson County

Results: The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican CaucusesTrump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Other Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Other No vote estimates available. No resultsFormer president Donald J. Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, with The Associated Press calling the race for Mr. Trump less than an hour after caucusing began. This is the most detailed vote data available for the first 2024 presidential election contest. vote share Lower income areas — — Higher income areas — — Areas with fewer college graduates — — Areas with more college graduates — — Rural areas — — Suburban areas — — Urban areas — —Trump’s supportEach dot in the charts below represents one neighborhood’s caucus precinct. Income One precinct Precincts in … Lower income areasHigher income areasEducation Areas with fewer college graduatesAreas with more college graduatesPopulation density Rural areasSuburban areasUrban areas

Persons: Haley Ramaswamy, Trump, Donald J, caucusing, Mr, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Haley, DeSantis Organizations: Iowa Republican, Trump, Associated Press, Republican, South, —, Iowa Locations: Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, …, Des Moines

☆ The Needle Returns for the Iowa Caucus, With a Twist
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Nate Cohn | Irineo Cabreros | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Once Iowa caucus results start coming in after 8 p.m. Eastern tonight, The Times will start publishing a live estimate of the final result, better known as the Needle. How to watch the Needle tonightWith Donald J. Trump leading in polls by a wide margin and with much of the focus on the race for second place, our results pages will feature graphics designed to help you understand how multiple candidates are faring rather than just having a single needle displaying who is most likely to win the race. This hypothetical chart below shows how our live estimates of the Iowa caucuses will work. Our best estimate for each candidate’s final vote share will be shown along with a range of estimates for where things might end up.

Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Times Locations: Iowa

☆ A Big Reason to Pay Attention to Iowa? New Hampshire.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The long road to the Republican presidential nomination begins tonight in Iowa, where voters will gather at their neighborhood precinct caucuses to cast the first votes of the 2024 election campaign. Iowa may not have many voters or delegates, but the first-in-the-nation caucuses always attract a media frenzy. But tonight, Iowa voters seem likely to choose Donald J. Trump — someone they didn’t pick eight years ago, but who now appears poised for the largest victory in a contested Iowa Republican caucus. In 2016, Iowa voters rejected Mr. Trump in favor of Ted Cruz. And unlike most of the country, the Republican establishment in Iowa has not gone along with Mr. Trump.

Persons: Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter —, Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Ted Cruz, he’s Organizations: Republican, Iowa Republican, Republican Party, Mr Locations: Iowa

☆ Why Haley Is Rising Among the Rivals to Trump
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If you dozed off while following the Republican primary, I wouldn’t blame you. With Ms. Haley still a full 50 percentage points behind Mr. Trump in national polls, her ascent doesn’t exactly endanger his path to the nomination. So if you were reading this only on the off chance that Mr. Trump might be in jeopardy, you can doze off again. Ms. Haley is now neck-and-neck with Mr. DeSantis in Iowa, a state he is counting on to reverse a yearlong downward spiral in the polls. She’s well ahead of Mr. DeSantis in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two states where a moderate South Carolinian like her ought to fare relatively well.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Donald J, Haley, Trump, who’s, DeSantis Organizations: Republican Locations: DeSantis, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

☆ Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020. They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. In the states with party registration, for instance, the Times/Siena young voters were registered Democrats by a 13-point margin, 35 percent to 22 percent. It’s important to emphasize that just because the polls “look” right doesn’t mean they are right. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary.

Persons: Biden, Mr, we’ve, Trump, Biden isn’t, don’t, It’s, leaners Organizations: Democratic, Times, Mr, Democrats, Biden ’ Locations: Siena

☆ We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Do abortion and democracy matter to voters? Only around a quarter said that issues like democracy and abortion were more important to their vote than the economy. It raises the possibility that the usual poll questions simply failed to reveal the importance of abortion, democracy and perhaps other issues as well. With that in mind, we tried an experiment in our latest Times/Siena poll. We gave each group a set of two hypothetical Republican candidates based on views on abortion and democracy.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, — Organizations: New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena

☆ The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

If you do this exercise for previous elections, issue polling failures look more like the norm than the exception. With such a poor track record, there’s a case that “issue” polling faces a far graver crisis than “horse race” polling. The crisis facing issue polling is almost entirely non-falsifiable — just like the issue polling itself. Most pollsters probably assume they’re good at issue polling; after all, unlike with horse race polls, they’re almost never demonstrably wrong. These causal questions are beyond what a single poll with “issue” questions can realistically be expected to answer.

Persons: Joe Biden, pollsters, Donald J, they’re, It’s Organizations: Republican, Voters, The Times, CBS, Pew Research, ABC, Washington Locations: Siena

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