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☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points but tempered hawkishness in its statement. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, fell 0.077% to 104.170, having slipped 0.26% overnight. The Japanese yen was mostly flat at 135.94 to the dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, which investors will focus on for cues of the path the U.S. central bank is likely to take in tackling sticky inflation. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was 0.067% higher at 104.31, having skidded 0.26% overnight. The Australian dollar rose 0.01% against the U.S. dollar at $0.673 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision later in the day where a quarter-percentage point rate hike is widely expected. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .

☆ Dollar advances as traders consider higher-for-longer rates view
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, jumped 1.8% last month, according to the Commerce Department. The market is now pricing U.S. interest rates to peak at 5.4% in July and remain above 5% through the end of the year. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21-22 meeting, though some analysts see the possibility of a 50 basis points hike if inflation stays high and growth remains strong. "We now believe it is a much closer call that officials hike by 50 basis points in March than our earlier 25 basis points assumption," said Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.673, while the kiwi advanced 0.13% versus the greenback to $0.617.

☆ Fed will be more aggressive starting in March with a 50bps hike, says NatWest's Michelle Girard
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will be more aggressive starting in March with a 50bps hike, says NatWest's Michelle GirardMichelle Girard, NatWest Markets, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss her expectation that the Fed will be more hawkish as inflation reports continue to be hot.

The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major peers was at 104.48, steady on the day. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "Until major releases can change the view, the market bias looks like good news is bad news - a resilient U.S. economy is risk-negative." Something that is bad news for risk sentiment, in this case, the likelihood of higher interest rates, would typically boost safe-haven curencies like the dollar. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar retreats as investors come to terms with higher-for-longer U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting, minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday. However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. "Many central banks around the world ... are trying to put an emphasis in their determination to combat inflation expectations," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. The kiwi continued to draw some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rate rise on Wednesday, after the central bank signalled further tightening ahead to tame high inflation. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

☆ Two market experts give their expectations for this month's CPI report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market experts give their expectations for this month's CPI reportCapital Wealth Planning's Kevin Simpson and NatWest Markets' Michelle Girard discuss what to expect from the January CPI report.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with NatWest's Michelle Girard and Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NatWest's Michelle Girard and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.

☆ Friday's strong jobs number pushes back timing of potential recession, says Michelle Girard
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFriday's strong jobs number pushes back timing of potential recession, says Michelle GirardMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.

☆ Stocks firm, dollar on edge ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will announce its rate decision at 1900 GMT, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later. Currency trade has been in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed and Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings that follow on Thursday. But the U.S. wages data wiped out some small dollar gains made earlier this week amid some nerves that the Fed sticks to its hawkish stance. United Parcel Service (UPS.N), the world's biggest package delivery firm, beat forecasts and shares rose 4.7%. Prices for dollar bonds in Adani Group companies were steadying in Asia trade on Wednesday after last week's rout.

☆ Markets are unlikely to look to Indian budget for 'telltale signs' on how to trade rupee: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are unlikely to look to Indian budget for 'telltale signs' on how to trade rupee: StrategistGalvin Chia of NatWest Markets says the Indian budget will be something of a "non-event" for those in Singapore.

☆ Dollar set for fourth monthly drop as Fed meeting looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The dollar was eyeing a fourth monthly loss on Tuesday as investors reckon a peak in U.S. interest rates could swing into view as soon as this week's Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. dollar index is down 1.3% for January so far, though it rose 0.3% to 102.19 overnight. The Japanese yen fell 0.4% overnight but is set for its third monthly gain as markets anticipate shifts in monetary policy. Sterling and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars also made overnight losses but are set for monthly gains. Interest-rate futures indicate market expectations for a 25 basis point (bp) hike from the Federal Reserve to take the Fed funds rate window to 4.5%-4.75%.

☆ Hopes of slowdown in rate hikes bolster shares ahead of U.S. GDP
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected, while gold hit a 9-month peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 1.1% and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. The report could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Fed's jumbo rate hikes kick in. Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected. Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,941 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.

☆ Shares in Asia hit fresh 7-month high, U.S. GDP data awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 0.9% to 557.65 and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. Trading was thin on Thursday with Australia closed for a holiday and certain parts of Asia, including China, still away for the Lunar New Year. Investor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.09% to $80.22 per barrel, while Brent was at $86.05, down 0.08% on the day. Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,945.55 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.

☆ Strong U.S. economic growth expected in fourth quarter, outlook darkening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.

☆ Stocks becalmed before potential CPI storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European futures rose 0.4%. Bonds held overnight gains and the U.S. dollar was pinned near a seven-month low at $1.0769 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. U.S. Treasuries added a little to overnight gains, with benchmark 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 3.5189% and 30-year yields down 4.4 bps to 3.6375%. Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Asia stocks hit 7-month high on China and CPI bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following gains for Wall Street indexes overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.5% and touched an almost seven-month high. Bonds were bought around the world overnight and the U.S. dollar wavered, to touch a seven-month low at $1.0776 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. "We expect a below consensus CPI print, which if it materialises, could push this rally even further." Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Girard: We're seeing some relief on inflation, and the market is hoping that will set the stage for the Fed to be less aggressive
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGirard: We're seeing some relief on inflation, and the market is hoping that will set the stage for the Fed to be less aggressiveMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, discusses whether today's CPI data will offer enough positive signals that the Fed can move towards pausing its rate hike campaign sometime this spring.

☆ Asia shares up on Fed rate wagers, China reopening lifts yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 2.0% to a five-month top, with South Korean shares (.KS11) gaining 2.2%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was closed for a holiday but futures were trading at 26,215, compared with a cash close on Friday of 25,973. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major U.S. banks, with the Street fearing no year-on-year growth at all in overall earnings. "China reopening is one upside risk to 2023 EPS, but margin pressures, taxes, and recession present greater downside risks." Fed fund futures now imply around a 25% chance of a half-point hike in February, down from around 50% a month ago.

☆ Asia shares rise on U.S. rate bets, China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5% to a five-month top, with South Korean shares (.KS11) gaining 2.1%. S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq futures 0.3%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5%, while FTSE futures firmed 0.4%. "China reopening is one upside risk to 2023 EPS, but margin pressures, taxes, and recession present greater downside risks." The market scaled back bets on rate hikes for the Federal Reserve.

☆ Yuan to strengthen once zero-Covid headwinds are gone: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChinese yuan will probably strengthen once headwinds from zero-Covid policy are gone: StrategistGalvin Chia of NatWest Markets discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and currency.

☆ Asia shares skid on China woes, yen hits 6-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell another 1.3%, having lost a fifth of its value last year. The cautious mood spread to Wall Street, with S&P 500 futures off 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.6% lower. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 1.4% and FTSE futures 0.8%. The policy shift boosted the yen across the board, with the dollar losing 5% in December and the euro 2.3%. Brent lost 74 cents to $85.17 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 62 cents to $79.64 per barrel.

☆ Asia shares weigh China risks, yen hits 6-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.5%, having been down more than 1.0% in choppy early trading. Nikkei futures were trading at 25,750 compared with the last close for the cash index (.N225) of 26,094. Wall Street was in a guarded mood, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures up 0.1%. Such a move at its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18 would only add to speculation of an end to ultra-loose policy, which has essentially acted as a floor for bond yields globally. The policy shift boosted the yen across the board, with the dollar losing 5% in December and the euro 2.3%.

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