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USDA’s August corn and soy yields were the season’s highest in three of the last 10 years, most recently in 2022 for both. Looking toward final yields, the August corn yield has a slight tendency to be too high. Final corn yield was lower than in August in six of the last 10 years and in 10 of the last 15 years. The last two times final corn yield was above the August figure were in 2021 and 2017. USDA’s July corn and soy yields were 177.5 and 52 bpa, respectively, and both would be new records.

Persons: maximums, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Midwest, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa

But the Crop Watch producers are concerned that this heat could challenge the corn in particular as it continues to fill out kernels. Indiana picked up 2.5 inches last week, western Illinois 2.45 inches, Nebraska up to 1.4 inches, and South Dakota got 1 inch. That ties two other weeks out of the last six for the highest Crop Watch soybean yield prospects of the season so far. Crop Watch producers continue rating both crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Crop Watch, Indiana, South Dakota, Southeastern, . Minnesota, Watch, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gideon , Missouri, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Nebraska, South, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, ., Minnesota, South Dakota, government’s, North Dakota , Nebraska, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

In the week ended Aug. 8, money managers established a net short position in CBOT corn futures and options of 26,656 contracts compared with the previous week’s net long of 16,741 contracts. Money managers’ net long in CBOT soybean futures and options in late July was at a seven-year high for the date, but funds have sold aggressively in the last couple weeks. Most-active CBOT wheat drifted fractionally higher in the week ended Aug. 8. Wheat futures tumbled 4.5% in the last three sessions and finished at $6.26-3/4 per bushel, their lowest settle in two months. Funds reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 4,497 contracts from 7,592 a week earlier, and they slashed their K.C.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City

Debates over U.S. corn and soybean yield potential have persisted all summer following one of the driest Junes on record. Soy yield’s range of 1.5 bpa is a six-year low, well below the 2.9-bpa average, raising the risk of surprise. The trade nailed corn yield last August, coming within 0.3% of USDA’s figure, analysts’ best performance since 2001. I posted a Twitter poll midday on Thursday asking which yield surprise could be most likely on Friday: corn high, corn low, soybeans high or soybeans low. After about two hours and 555 votes, corn yield surprising high was the clear leader with 40% of the vote.

Persons: Karl Plume, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Spiritwood , North Dakota, U.S, Karl Plume NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

☆ The ultimate wedding gift? Newlyweds want cash for a down payment
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Chris Taylor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File PhotoNEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - When Valentina Valentini was putting together gift ideas for her wedding, the freelance journalist quickly realized that a traditional registry would not work. While asking for cash gifts makes financial sense, it is tricky. "Put a few traditional gifts on it, which they can purchase for you. PUT IT TO WORKWhatever does get donated to your down payment fund, it likely will not be enough to pull the trigger on a purchase right away. "This is a very practical idea for wedding gifts – and one that we have chosen for my sister-in-law's upcoming wedding."

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Valentina Valentini, Clare Trapasso, Realtor.com, Valentini, Realtor.com's Trapasso, Randy Bruns, –, Lauren Young, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, National Association of Realtors, invitees, Thomson Locations: Long Island , New York, U.S, London, California, New England, Realtor.com, Naperville , Illinois

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields were stressed last week under mostly dry conditions, but multiple rounds of rain over the weekend prevented yield expectations from declining. Last week’s Crop Watch rain totals were mostly concentrated over the weekend, though not all areas received the needed soaking. More than 3 inches of rain were observed in South Dakota, Nebraska, western Iowa and western Illinois, and Indiana picked up 2 inches. For example, the western Iowa producer this week described his beans as phenomenal while the Ohio field was said to look incredible. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.

Persons: Dane Rhys, dews, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota , Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio , Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota , Nebraska, government’s, Ohio, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

But the four-times Olympic gold medallist cleared up any confusion this past weekend, proving she is as big a threat as ever one year out from the next Olympics. In addition to the all-around, Biles is favoured on the world stage for the vault and floor exercise golds due to her unmatched difficulty. The Russian women, competing as the Russian Olympic Committee due to a doping ban, captured team gold in Tokyo, leaving the United States to settle for silver. Contenders could include an unprecedented three Olympic all-around champions as 2012 winner Gabby Douglas, 27, recently announced plans to join Biles and 2020 champion Sunisa Lee, 20, on the road to Paris. The Paris squad will be selected at U.S. team trials at the end of June next year, a month before the 2024 Games.

Persons: Simone Biles’s, ”, Biles, Gabby Douglas, Sunisa Lee, ’, Clare Fallon Organizations: Tokyo Olympics, Paris, International Gymnastics Federation, Russian Olympic, Paris Games, Biles, U.S, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE, Ill, Chicago, Saturday’s, Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro, Russia, Belarusian, Ukraine, Russian, United States, U.S, Paris

☆ Money market funds are paying above 5%. What to know before ditching your savings account
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Money market funds — which are different than money market deposit accounts — are a type of mutual fund that typically invests in shorter-term, lower-credit-risk debt, such as Treasury bills. Currently, some money market mutual funds are outperforming assets such as high-yield savings accounts or newly purchased Series I bonds. Money market funds have less liquidity than savingsChristopher Lyman, a certified financial planner with Allied Financial Advisors in Newtown, Pennsylvania, said he's still proposing money market mutual funds for certain clients, with the caveat of higher risks or more stipulations for accessing the money. What's more, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently adopted "liquidity fees" for certain money market funds for withdrawals when daily outflows exceed 5% of the fund's value. Money market funds aren't risk freeWhile money market funds typically invest in lower-risk assets, experts say it's important to know the funds aren't risk free.

Persons: dowell, Christopher Lyman, he's, Lyman, Randy Bruns, Bruns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Data, Investment Company Institute, Financial Advisors, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Fund, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: Newtown , Pennsylvania, it's, Naperville , Illinois

But new-crop export demand has started to pick up and, despite expectations for supportive weather, U.S. soybean production is far from settled given this season’s hardships. Grains have performed significantly worse over that period with December corn and CBOT September wheat down 13% and 17%, respectively. That has lifted soybeans’ price advantage versus corn to the highest August levels in three years. CBOT November soybeans to December corn ratioIn the last decade, November soybeans strengthened throughout August only twice - in 2020 and 2013. U.S. soybean export demand for 2023-24 has recently been lackluster, but U.S. beans are now cheaper than Brazilian ones for shipment to China in the later months of 2023, which should support further U.S. sales.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, Midwest, Iowa, Illinois, China

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields took a relatively large hit over the last week amid hot, humid weather accompanied by scarce rainfall. SCORE REDUCTIONSThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition fell to 3.95 from 4.16 last week, the largest weekly cut in eight weeks. Average Crop Watch corn yield potential fell to 3.84 from 4.02 last week, also slightly lower than at the same point in the last two years. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, Illinois, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, North, South Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Illinois, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Kansas, South Dakota , Nebraska, Minnesota , Nebraska, Nebraska . Western Illinois, Nebraska, government’s, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

That includes 2021, 2006 and 2005, where severe drought gripped 18-21% of U.S. corn in late July. U.S. corn in drought July 25This same week in 2006 featured the largest moderate drought expanse in the Corn Belt after 2023 at 46% coverage, followed by 38% in 2005 and 36% in 2021. But it is interesting that corn yields landed close to trend in those five years. Some 4% of spring wheat is in severe drought, the first trace of severe drought since April. North Dakota’s spring wheat yield reached a record 50 bpa in 2022 despite fears that delayed planting would be limiting.

Persons: North, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Drought Monitor, Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, North Dakota, North

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT corn futures had risen almost 6% during the week, though CBOT wheat surged over 13%, including a limit-up move on July 24. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsGrain futures did not sustain their strength last week, and funds may have already abandoned bullish corn bets as of Friday’s close. Corn dropped over 6% in the last three sessions and commodity funds commodity funds were pegged as net sellers of 33,000 futures contracts. CBOT wheat futures still maintain some of their recent Ukraine war premium, having shed 7.4% between Wednesday and Friday. Funds were seen as sellers of 24,000 wheat futures during this period.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Funds, European Union, Sunday, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine, European, U.S, China, Mexico . U.S, Brazil

Commodity markets closely follow the American (GFS) and the European (EC) weather models, and it is important to understand their variations, especially at this time of year. The four-times-daily GFS forecasts out 15 days while the twice-per-day EC evaluates a 10-day period. Both models’ precipitation output has deviated significantly enough from the actuals to warrant higher levels of uncertainty in precipitation forecasts versus temperature ones. Both the GFS and EC precipitation output for the first half of July was overly optimistic on precipitation, which has generally been the case for the past six months. Despite the GFS’s recent temperature reliability, it has more often leaned too cool versus too warm in the last couple of months.

Persons: Tuesday’s GFS, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: European, Midwest, EC, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Midwest, U.S

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 24 (Reuters) - Crop Watch condition scores have somewhat steadied after rising for three straight weeks as the latest week’s dry weather was offset by cooler temperatures. CONDITIONS AND YIELDIn the latest week, corn condition and yield contracted slightly while soybean condition edged upward, and soy yield stayed unchanged. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. WEATHEROhio was the wettest Crop Watch location last week with around 2.75 inches of rain in two events, one with some damaging hail. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, The Ohio, North Dakota, government’s, Eastern Iowa, Illinois, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Although those factors caused Chicago corn and wheat futures to surge, speculators have held on to their bearish views thus far. In the week ended July 18, money managers reduced their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 46,926 contracts from 63,052 a week earlier. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT December corn futures rallied 6.6% through Tuesday, July 18, though the week included a drop to new yearly lows after the Department of Agriculture expanded the U.S. corn crop outlook. Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options has barely changed in the latest three weeks despite a 4% decline in most-active futures during the stretch. Money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-week high of 95,814 contracts through July 18 from 82,748 a week earlier.

Persons: Soymeal, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Department of Agriculture, Wednesday, Traders, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, U.S, soyoil

The pace of new-crop U.S. corn and soybean export sales usually starts to increase in July and especially into August. That covers only 8% of USDA’s 2023-24 U.S. corn export forecast of 53.3 million tonnes (2.1 billion bushels), below the five-year average of 13%. New U.S. corn export sales, July 13New-crop soybean sales account for 10% of USDA’s 2023-24 export target of 50.35 million tonnes (1.85 billion bushels). New U.S. soybean export sales, July 13Both of those export outlooks, especially the one for corn, are considered too optimistic by some analysts since cheaper Brazilian supplies are seen increasingly eating in to U.S. export shares. China has purchased 1.87 million tonnes of new-crop U.S. soybeans, the lowest mid-July, non-trade-war-year volume in at least 16 years.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, U.S, China, New U.S, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, Canada

The weather story lingered again on Wednesday, but harsher threats from Russia thrust the grain deal into the spotlight. Most-active CBOT wheat futures surged 8.5% on Wednesday, wheat’s largest single-day percentage rise since Feb. 28, 2022, just days after Russia invaded Ukraine. Money managers held a modest net short of 63,052 corn futures and options contracts by that date. Prior to that, grain deal uncertainty failed to spark bullish interest as Ukrainian export volumes far exceeded original expectations. Had the Jan. 3 high stood, it would have been November beans’ first annual high set in January since 1999.

Persons: reconnection, Karen Braun, Matthw Lewis Organizations: Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, Russia, India, U.S, Moscow, Western

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Corn Belt has experienced much more forgiving weather this month after an unusually dry June crashed both corn crop conditions and yield ideas. Three weeks ago, corn was just 50% GE, the week’s worst since 1988. Although long ago, most years with similar gains around this time frame featured corn yields within a couple percent of trend, if not better. Keep in mind that the concept of “trend yield” is subjective and often varies by analyst. USDA’s 2023 corn trend of 181.5 bushels per acre, which some considered too high, was reduced to 177.5 last week after the dry June.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, GE, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Those factors caused a historic 21% plunge in CBOT December corn in the final seven trading days of June, though price steadied immediately after. But money managers in that week expanded their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 63,052 contracts from 18,209 in the prior week, against expectations for mild net buying. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsUSDA lowered U.S. corn yield on July 12 due to dry June weather, but it would still be a new record. U.S. soybean plantings came in far below market predictions on June 30, but money managers have been net sellers of CBOT soybean futures and options in the last two weeks. That was on a 0.5% rise in November soybean futures for the week, and beans rose another 0.8% in the last three sessions.

Persons: steadied, Wheat, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, soyoil, U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

Over the last decade, U.S. corn yield in August was lower than in July four times, including the past two years. The recent years with higher August corn yields versus July have featured some sizable moves. The government's corn and soybean yields will rely heavily on survey data next month and field observations will be added in September. Last month was the Midwest’s driest June since 1988, though USDA left U.S. soybean yield untouched from the 52-bpa trendline. August soybean yield has come in lower than in July only twice in the past 10 years (2013, 2021).

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, USDA

☆ Chipotle tests robot that can prepare avocados to make guacamole faster
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Avocados sliced, cored and peeled by the Autocado robot created by Chipotle and Vebu Labs. The fast-casual chain developed the collaborative robot, or cobot, in partnership with Vebu Labs, a California-based robotics startup. Chipotle Mexican Grill has developed a robot that can cut, core and peel avocados used in its guacamole as the restaurant industry faces a sustained labor shortage. To prepare avocados using the Autocado, Chipotle employees load up the device with a full case of the ripe fruit. Preparing avocados for guacamole routinely ranks as one of employees' least favorite tasks, Garner said.

Persons: Carl's, Chipotle, Curt Garner, Garner, Vebu, It's, We've, we'll Organizations: Vebu Labs, baristas, CNBC, Employees, guacamole, Miso Robotics Locations: Naperville , Illinois, California, Vebu

It is always risky when all analysts are leaning the same way, though recent weather and the already-lofty nature of the corn yield seem to validate this thinking. However, lower yields may not be printed in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report on Wednesday. All 25 analysts polled between Reuters and Bloomberg believe this month’s corn yield will come in below USDA’s trend-line of 181.5 bushels per acre. Eight of 25 analysts expect the 52 bpa to stand on Wednesday, though soy yield may be more likely than corn to come in lower this month. That leaves room for corn yield losses on the balance sheet but keeps bean supplies tight either way.

Persons: U.S . Midwest Karen Braun, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, Reuters, Bloomberg, U.S . Midwest, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Illinois, Indiana

Corn conditions have recently been comparable to the drought-stricken 2012 season, though they U-turned at the start of July. Corn conditions tend to stay largely unchanged or decline slightly throughout the season even in high-yielding years, so this week’s increase stands out. The last time corn conditions improved 4 or more percentage points in a late-June or early-July week was in 2001, and there were four more instances between 1992 and 1997. Using corn conditions for week 27 to predict final yield deviation from trend results in an R-square of 0.56, meaning about 56% of the yield variation can be explained by week 27 conditions. This suggests corn conditions have max correlation with actual yield deviations in late July, though including other variables such as July or August weather would likely enhance the model's reliability.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: of Agriculture, GE, Sunday’s, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields rose again last week as seasonably cool temperatures dominated, outweighing some of the underwhelming rainfall totals in western areas. Cool weather should dominate this week, favorable for corn pollination, which is currently under way in at least seven of the 11 corn fields. Average corn yield starts at 3.95 versus 4.07 in the same week last year and 3.86 in the same week in 2021. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: ’, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, U.S . Department of, Crop, Indiana, The North, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, South Dakota , Kansas, Nebraska , Kansas, The, The North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, Griggs County, Stutsman County

As of July 3, CBOT December corn futures had plunged nearly 22% off their June 21 high as much-needed rain for U.S. crops started falling and also appeared in forecasts. December corn fell 12% in the four-day week ended July 3, and money managers flipped to a net short in CBOT corn futures and options of 18,209 contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsU.S. soybean plantings on June 30 came in well below all trade guesses, causing a surge in November soybeans . CBOT wheat rose more than 1% over the last three sessions on a slower U.S. winter harvest and possible drought concerns for U.S. and Canadian spring wheat. However, open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options is at the lowest mid-year levels since 2005.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minnesota, Iowa , Wisconsin, North Dakota, U.S

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