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☆ Reaction: June US jobs growth cools, but wages won't comfort Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. "Today's numbers confirm the job market is still strong... and this report gives the green light to the Fed to raise rates. "If anything, it probably confirms this idea that the Fed has had that they are making progress in the right direction." "It's not like this is a sudden vast improvement in the labor market." The hours worked numbers are rising slower than the payrolls numbers.

Persons: Nonfarm, payrolls, CANDICE, GOLDMAN, BEN JEFFERY, “, PETER CARDILLO, we're, STUART COLE, JASON PRIDE, MICHAEL BROWN, ”, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: YORK, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, BMO, NFP, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: GOLDMAN SACHS, PHILADELPHIA, WISCONSIN

Weekly orders this year now average 26 as the strike by the Writers Guild of America (WGA) halted many film and TV productions, Elyea said. Florists, caterers, costume suppliers and others have seen orders dwindle as many are still recovering from disruptions caused by COVID-19. No new talks are scheduled between major Hollywood studios and the writers, who are seeking higher pay and guardrails around the use of artificial intelligence. The strike's impact would be magnified if the SAG-AFTRA actors union also goes on strike when its contract expires on Friday. "Now, there's the writers' strike, and we're losing the movies that have been so good to us."

Persons: Pam Elyea's, Elyea, Kevin Klowden, Klowden, You've, Ross Garner, Danni Sapp, Sapp, Cristina, John Iverson, Cristina Iverson, Iverson, we're, hadn't, Lisa Richwine, Dawn Chmielewski, Danielle Broadway, Rollo Ross, Mary Milliken, Sandra Maler Organizations: Hollywood, Hire, Writers Guild of America, SAG, WGA, Milken Institute, NFP's Entertainment Group, Services, Netflix, HBO, Television Fund, Vogue, FBI, Thomson Locations: ANGELES, Los Angeles, California, United States, COVID, New Mexico, Santa Fe, Waco

☆ Trump wants the $5 million he owes E. Jean Carroll held as cash, not as a bond, in a weird move that saves him just $55,000
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Trump must set aside $5.55 million dollars for E. Jean Carroll while he appeals her successful defamation verdict. On Friday, he made the unusual move of asking the court to hold the money as cash, rather than as a bond. Surety experts say the move saves Trump the price of a bond premium: just $55,000. Trump attorney Joe Tacopina filed the request Friday with US District Court Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the defamation and sexual assault trial. That amount could be nothing if Trump wins an outright reversal of the judgment, or less than $5 million if an appeals court reduces the judgment.

Persons: Trump, Jean Carroll, —, Donald Trump, E, It's, Mike Lapre, Lapre, Joe Tacopina, Lewis Kaplan, Tacopina, Carroll, Roberta Kaplan, Trump's, Ira Judelson, Judelson, Dominique Strauss, Kahn, Plaxico Burress, Conor McGregor, nix, he's Organizations: Trump, Service, NFP, NFL Locations: Manhattan, York City

☆ Gold set for biggest weekly gain since April on Fed pause hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set on Friday for their biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign bolstered bullion's appeal. Bullion has gained 1.7% so far this week, heading for its best week since the week ended April 7. Gold, which does not yield any interest of its own, loses appeal when interest rates rise. A strong labor market print could see a bounce-back in the dollar, which would not help gold, Waterer added.

Persons: Bullion, Edward Meir, Patrick Harker, Joe Biden, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Aurum, Marex . Philadelphia Fed, U.S, U.S . Senate, U.S . Labor Department's, KCM

☆ Pound heads for biggest weekly gain in six months
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Sterling headed for its biggest one-week rally against the dollar in six months on Friday, as U.S. interest rates looked increasingly likely to plateau sooner than UK rates. The pound has gained 1.5% against the dollar this week, the most since early December, and nearly 1.1% against the euro - which would be its largest weekly increase in nearly four months. Meanwhile, as UK inflation remains stubbornly high, traders have reassessed the outlook for monetary policy in Britain too. Money markets show markets are pricing for UK rates to peak at 5.32% by year-end, up from 4.50% now. A month ago, the expectation was that UK rates would be around 4.80% by December.

Persons: Sterling, Warren Venketas, Jordan Rochester, Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton Organizations: NFP, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Washington, Britain, Rochester

☆ Gold flat; set for weekly jump on hopes of Fed pause, banking woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bars of gold are seen at the Krastsvetmet company, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2023. Gold prices were flat on Friday but are set for their biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as hopes of a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and banking worries in the country bolstered the safe-haven metal's appeal. Spot gold was little changed at $2,050.63 per ounce as of 0349 GMT, but was up 3% for the week. Mounting risks to the U.S. economy have also supported strong investor demand into gold as they sought haven assets, ANZ said in a note. The dollar index was set for a weekly drop, making gold more attractive for overseas buyers.

☆ Instant View: Solid April US jobs report undermines case for Fed cut soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN“It's definitely telling you that the job market is still hot. PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK“It was a hotter than expected report, it certainly didn’t show any cooling in the labor market. Hourly earnings were a little higher than I was looking for.”“Bottom line, this is a strong report and shows that the labor market is resilient. So I think the real focus is on the inflation numbers, and what's happening with wage growth. We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months.

Bitcoin peaked at $30,438 in Asian trade and was last up 1.4% at $30,070. It has gained nearly 6% since the start of the month, after rising 23% in March. This brings digital asset flows back into positive territory for the year, the report showed. "If (bitcoin) can survive the week over $30,000, we are going higher." While Shapella is not likely to directly drive sell pressure on ether, there could be heightened volatility around the event, Bank of America strategist Alkesh Shah said.

☆ UK stocks slip as investors gauge prospects of U.S. rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) fell 0.6%, and the mid-cap index (.FTMC) lost 0.7%, extending losses for a third straight session. Strengthening the case for hikes, data showed U.S. job openings fell less than expected in January. The FTSE 100 is up more than 6% so far this year, but is off more than 2% from all-time highs hit last month as investors try to assess the impact of rising interest. Among individual stocks, Rio Tinto (RIO.L) dropped 0.6% as the miner traded without dividend eligibility. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A reading of more than 200,000 jobs added in February would be the Fed's trigger for a big March rate hike, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will likely upsize its March rate hike if the February jobs report shows 200,00 or more jobs added, Barclays said. Investors on Tuesday quickly pushed up the odds the Fed deliver a rate hike of a half-percentage point after downsizing the pace to 25 basis points last month. The February jobs report due Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy added 203,000 jobs, with a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. The January jobs report trounced expectations with growth of 517,000 jobs. Such moves would put the peak of the Fed's benchmark interest rate at 5.5%-5.75% assuming that after June, the Fed sees sufficient evidence that slowing in employment and wages warrant a pause in rate hikes, Barclays said.

☆ Hawkish Powell puts 50 bp Fed rate hikes back on table
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Powell makes it clear the Fed would react accordingly if the data suggests that inflation continues to move in the wrong direction. It was very clear to the market that the Fed is not going to equivocate in terms of data that suggests inflation continues to climb higher or remain sticky." "Six percent (terminal rate) would be a little higher than it is likely. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT"The focus of the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%. "I prefer just one more 25 basis point rate hike, but probably we're going to get three 25 basis point rate hikes."

SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the euro, sterling and yen were all broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0671 , the pound at $1.20245 , and one dollar worth 135.7 yen . That meant U.S. dollar index , which measures the unit against six major rivals, was also flat at 104.3, having slipped 0.26% a day earlier. "If (he) remains cautious ... that could trigger the dollar index to fall further below the 105.00-level ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday." Investors are also awaiting the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra-loose monetary path.

☆ Powell's speech triggered record options bets, topping even the meme stock frenzy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

he asked in a note, adding that the previous record amount of call buying activity was in January 2021 just as the meme stock frenzy peaked. Those options were big market bets, like in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust, which represents the Nasdaq 100. SPY 5D line spy Much of the volume was in zero-day to expiration options, which expire on the same day. "The reality is if you bought the stock market in January 2021 and held onto it for any time period, you would be happy." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon spyMuch of the volume was in zero-day to expiration options, which expire on the same day.

☆ Gold rises, set for weekly gain with spotlight on U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,838.38 per ounce, as of 0238 GMT. The market's focus shifts to the U.S. Labor Department's closely watched nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data due at 1330 GMT. "Higher-than-expected job gains and more persistent wage pressures may be catalysts to add pressure on gold," said IG Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. "Gold prices have been finding its way higher since November as bullish bets in dollar and yields unwind. For 2023, gold prices may continue to draw in buyers but it might face some risk from hawkish pushback from policymakers."

☆ Gold edges higher as dollar dips ahead of U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,856.11 per ounce, as of 0302 GMT, after hitting a near seven-month high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures also edged 0.1% higher at $1,861.20. "Gold has had a good start to the year, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that the Fed might slow its pace of rate hikes. "If the jobs data reflects that the rate hikes have taken a toll on the economy, then dollar might weaken further and benefit gold." Bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding gold.

Leaving parliament on Saturday, Rabuka told waiting media he was humbled to have become the prime minister of Fiji before being rushed away to be sworn in by the country's president. Biman Prasad, leader of the NFP and the new finance minister, said the incoming government would work for the Fijian people. The prime ministers of both New Zealand and Australia released statements to congratulate the newly sworn-in Rabuka. "We strongly value Fiji as a close friend and partner as we progress our shared priorities for the region," New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. Anthony Albanese, Australia's prime minister, added in a tweet that he also looked forward to working with Rabuka.

☆ Here's one reason to doubt the reliability of data used by the Fed to determine how aggressive it needs to be to tame inflation, according to Fundstrat
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The plunging response rate of various economic surveys could call into question the reliability of Fed forecasts, according to Fundstrat. "How accurate is the surge in 5 million additional job openings, when there are 1/3 fewer respondents?" The CPI response rate is down to 37.7%, the NFP response rate is down to 44.8%, and the JOLTS response rate collapsed from 44% to 31% over the past year. By comparison, the JOLTS survey response rate was 68% in 2012, Lee observed. The current JOLTS data suggests for every unemployed American looking for a job, they have 1.7 job openings to choose from.

☆ Asia markets set to fall; China signals slight easing of Covid rules
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks were unable to continue Wednesday's rally because investors were awaiting a key jobs report coming Friday, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. He said investors were purposefully pulling back ahead of non-farm payroll data coming in the morning. Investors will be looking for the right, middle-ground data, said Megan Horneman, chief investing officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. With "a so-so number, I think the markets can maybe rally on that," she added. "But if you get a really weak number, it's just going to spook investors after such a strong rally we've seen in November."

☆ Gold flat; set for best week in three on smaller rate-hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices were flat on Friday but set for their best week in three ahead of the U.S. jobs report, helped by the dollar's retreat on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Spot gold was little changed at $1,800.78 per ounce as of 0037 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Aug. 10 earlier in the session. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the U.S. central bank might scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes as soon as December. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.16% on Thursday.

LONDON/TOKYO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Wednesday as investors awaited a Federal Reserve policy decision amid speculation it might indicate a slowdown in future rate hikes. But for the December meeting, the futures market is split on the odds of a 75- or 50-bps increase. The real was 0.1% higher exchanging hands for 5.14 per dollar. YEN JUMPSThe yen , down a whopping 28% against the dollar this year, outperformed on Wednesday, with traders on alert for possible intervention around the Fed meeting. The BOJ also released minutes of its latest policy meeting, with a member saying the bank must be vigilant for an inflation overshoot, possibly caused by yen weakness.

LONDON/TOKYO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday as investors awaited for the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision amid speculation it might indicate a slowdown in future rate hikes. But for the December meeting, the futures market is split on the odds of a 75- or 50-bps increase. It will be a difficult balance to strike for Powell," said Daria Parkhomenko, FX strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Against the weakening dollar, the euro and sterling edged up to $0.9889 and $1.1494, respectively. YEN JUMPSThe yen , down a whopping 28% against the U.S. dollar this year, outperformed, with traders on alert for possible intervention around the Fed meeting.

☆ The next few months should be a good time for struggling investors to recoup some of their losses, according to Morgan Stanley. Here's why — and when to get out again.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks have upside over the next few months, according to Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson. After months of painful losses and unpleasant surprises, Morgan Stanley says investors are going to catch a break. "Such a move could provide the necessary fuel for the next leg of the tactical rally in stocks," Wilson wrote in a recent note to clients. So Wilson says the next two or three months could be good times, but investors will need to recognize when they're ending. Even if investors do expect a recession, Wilson says they won't fully price it in until they see employment is falling in the monthly non-farm payrolls report.

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