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☆ Wall St Week Ahead After first-half rally, stocks' July winning streak on the line
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 defied recession fears and a U.S. banking crisis to notch a 15.9% gain in the first half. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has posted a positive return in eight consecutive Julys, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) has climbed in July for 15 straight years. S&P 500 companies are expected to post an overall drop in earnings of 5.7% from the year-earlier period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 is trading at 19.1 times forward earnings estimates, well above its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream. "At some point, this move in interest rates has got to have some consequences for the markets," Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, Omar Aguilar, Refinitiv IBES, “, John Lynch, Refinitiv, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, ” Reuters, American Association of, Fed, Schwab Asset Management, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Comerica Wealth Management, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed ahead of final week of trading in June: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were flat on Sunday evening as Wall Street looked to see if the market rally could find more momentum in the final week of June. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also higher by about 0.2%. The market rally sputtered last week. The S&P 500 dipped 1.01%, ending a five-week streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 29% year-to-date, and the S&P 500 is up more than 13%.

Persons: NDX, Rick Bensignor, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Bensignor, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike, Thursday, Traders Locations: Europe, Russia

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Lofty valuations on US stocks a growing worry for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 now trades at 19 times its expected 12-months earnings, well above its historic average of 15.6 times, Refinitiv Datastream showed. WFII recently downgraded the technology sector, which has led this year's S&P 500 rally, to "neutral" from "favorable," citing "unattractive" valuations. Goldman urged investors to consider "downside protection" to their stock portfolios, though they expect the S&P 500 to reach 4,500 by year-end, or about 3.5% above current levels. Valuations are even more stretched for the Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), whose 36% rally this year has dwarfed that of the S&P 500. "From a near-term perspective, investors should expect stocks to just cool a little bit."

Persons: Refinitiv Datastream, Goldman Sachs, Sameer Samana, WFII, Goldman, Refinitiv, Michael Purves, Purves, Anthony Saglimbene, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Tallbacken Capital, Deutsche Bank, Ameriprise, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Fear of missing out on stocks' rally drives bullish options trading
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Fear of missing out on the recent stock market rally is driving traders in the U.S. equity options market to lap up bullish derivative contracts at a hectic pace, further fueling gains for stocks, analysts said on Friday. On Thursday, a record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded. The rush into call options lifted the S&P 500 Index's 1-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least 4 years, according to Trade Alert data. Some of the rush into call options has also helped fuel the rally, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytic service SpotGamma. "The trend is probably higher... but in the very short term we have gotten over our skies," Kochuba said.

Persons: Russell, Christopher Jacobson, Brent Kochuba, Kochuba, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Susquehanna

☆ Asia shares buoyed by Fed pause bets; dollar heavy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese and Australian bond yields followed those on U.S. Treasuries lower, and the dollar remained on the defensive early in the Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) added 0.6%, and at one point touched its strongest level since Feb. 16. Traders now lay 1-in-4 odds for the Fed to raise rates by a quarter point on June 14, versus 75% probability of a pause. "I wouldn't go all in and say we're going to get a rate hike, but I think we should be at least 50% priced," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The dollar added 0.15% to 139.135 yen , after earlier slipping to a one-week low of 138.765.

Persons: Hong, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Powell's, Powell, undertightening, Tayyip Erdogan's, WTI fututes, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG Markets, New, U.S, West Texas, Brent, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, Tokyo, New York, U.S, United States, Iran

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Surging US megacap stocks leave some wondering when to cash out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen 11.5% this year and stands at a 10-month high. The S&P 500 rose 1.45%. The recent surge in Nvidia showed how a stock can keep climbing even after posting hefty gains. At the same time, only 20.3% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index on a rolling three-month basis, a record low dating back five decades, according to Ned Davis. Kotok views narrowing breadth as an ominous sign for the broader stock market, saying that equities also look less favorable in certain asset valuation metrics.

Persons: Ned Davis, Peter Tuz, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield, “, Brendan McDermid Michael Purves, Purves, Kevin Mahn, Refinitiv, ”, Mahn, Dow, David Kotok, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, BofA Global Research, Ned Davis Research, Chase Investment, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Nasdaq, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Dow Jones, Cumberland Advisors, Thomson Locations: megacap, BofA, New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Surging US megacap stocks leave some wondering when to cash out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen 11% this year and stands at a 10-month high. He is overweight megacaps, including Nvidia, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). The recent surge in Nvidia showed how a stock can keep climbing even after posting hefty gains. At the same time, only 20.3% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index on a rolling three-month basis, a record low dating back five decades, according to Ned Davis. In one commonly used valuation metric, the S&P 500 is trading at 18.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

Persons: Ned Davis, Peter Tuz, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield, “, Michael Purves, Purves, Kevin Mahn, Refinitiv, ”, Mahn, Dow, David Kotok, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, BofA Global Research, Ned Davis Research, Chase Investment, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Nasdaq, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Dow Jones, Cumberland Advisors, Thomson Locations: megacap, BofA

It's not even midyear yet, but the full gamut of scenarios has been juggled in just five months. World markets have swung from "hard landing" fears of late 2022 to the "soft landing" hopes of the new year and then even unnerving thoughts of "no landing" at all - just before the banking stress hit of March forced them to return to square one. "The economy is more resilient than the market realizes," BlackRock's Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday, adding more interest rates rises will be necessary but that he saw no "evidence that we're going to have a hard landing." A "soft landing" typically relates to the ability of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to get inflation back close to 2% targets without crashing the economy into a deep contraction with surging unemployment via extreme rate rises. If correct - and not all agree - the prospect of a sustained return to 2% inflation targets would surely turn off the seatbelt sign.

Persons: Larry Fink, Willem Sels, Simona Mocuta, Mocuta, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, HSBC Global Private Banking, Nasdaq, Street Global Advisors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, United States, Europe

☆ Tech shares see biggest-ever weekly inflow on AI boom-BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks in general saw $14.8 billion of inflows, the largest weekly inflow since February. Investors are chasing a "summer rip tide into tech and stocks", BofA analysts wrote in a note, which referred to an AI "baby bubble", though they said they themselves remain bearish due to the impact of higher interest rates causing liquidity to tighten. Cash funds, normally in demand when investors are nervous, also saw inflows of $11.3 billion, their sixth straight week of inflows, while gold funds saw $200 million of outflows, according to BofA. They describe the trade as: "Buy HSI sell AI". Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper and David HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoFa, Stocks, Cash, BofA, Alun John, Amanda Cooper, David Holmes Organizations: Technology, BofA Global, Tech, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Hang Seng Tech, Thomson Locations: China

☆ Chart analysts see market correction coming after temporary debt ceiling-deal euphoria
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But market breadth, or the measure of how wide-reaching a rally is, has ebbed. CanaccordGenuity technical analyst Javed Mirza said in a note to clients on Monday that an "intermediate-term equity market correction looms" if market breadth does not improve. Over the past three months, the Nasdaq 100 has gained more than 18%, and the S & P 500 has advanced nearly 6%. Meanwhile, the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has fallen more than 3%. According to Bespoke Investment Group, 90 stocks in the S & P 500 have hit 52-week highs this month.

☆ As the Nasdaq recovers half of its bear market losses, signs of broader strength emerge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

This particular conversation has been chewed over pretty thoroughly, and I've hit on it last week and the week before . And perhaps more relevant, last week saw at least tentative signs of a desired broadening out. It's worth pointing out too that the recent surge in the familiar Nasdaq megacaps has a lot to do with mean reversion, after the Nasdaq lagged the equal-weighted S & P 500 in 2002 by 20 percentage points. The NDX has been in a long-term structural uptrend relative to the S & P 500 for the past decade. As noted, the S & P 500 touched 4,200 late in the week before easing back a bit.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling drama aside, world economy looks shaky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Naomi RovnickRisk appetite has perked up on global markets thanks to optimism that U.S. Democrats and Republicans are nearing a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. But while a debt ceiling reprieve could boost markets in coming days, the backdrop of a lacklustre global economy is unchanged, with its twin engines, China and the United States, sputtering. Citi's China economic surprise index is at its lowest since January (.CESICNY), a further sign that the growth outlook has weakened. The S&P 500 is trading at a rich 18 times forecast earnings, buoyed by the tech mega-stocks that dominate the index. Developments that could affect markets on Thursday:* Economic events: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales, Philly Fed business index.

☆ Morning bid: Biden, Republicans set for debt ceiling face-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indyk. President Joe Biden and senior Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, are to sit down on Tuesday in an attempt to thrash out a deal to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. That relative calm has been reflected in the latest Bank of America fund manager survey for May. Equity allocations rose to a five-month high, while a vast majority (71%) expect the U.S. to agree on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called "X-date". Away from the debt ceiling and the Federal Reserve's data dependency will be tested with the latest retail sales and industrial production figures.

Yields on U.S. short-dated Treasury bills , jumped sharply as investors sold off bonds, which mature as early as June. That weighed on shares of high-growth companies, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which fell about 0.5% each. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 15.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.25 points, or 0.55%. Chip-gear maker Skyworks Solutions Inc's (SWKS.O) shares tumbled 11.7% after forecasting current-quarter revenue and earnings below estimates. Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Qorvo (QRVO.O) fell 0.9% and 2.3%, respectively.

☆ Here are the top 10 tech stock analysts of the past decade, according to TipRanks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Tipranks.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technology stocks outperformed the broader markets over the past decade. As technology stocks shone in the past decade, TipRanks recognizes the 10 best analysts on Wall Street from this sector. TipRanks has analyzed each stock recommendation made by tech sector analysts in the past decade to come up with this list. TipRanks' algorithms calculated the average return and statistical significance of each rating, as well as the analysts' overall success rate. TipRanks leveraged its Experts Center tool to identify the top ten analysts with a high success rate.

☆ Morning Bid: Apple comforts as payrolls loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Apple upped its dividend and authorized another $90 billion share repurchase program, same as a year ago. Apple's stock has outperformed most of Wall Street in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. After a torrid 2022, that narrow index is up 35% so far this year - far outstripping the Nasdaq 100's (.NDX) 18% gain and accounting for the bulk of the more modest 6% rise in the S&P500 <.S&P500>. And after three hefty daily retreats in a row for the S&P500 this week, futures are up 0.4% ahead of Friday's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

So far in 2023, this index of what are the leading lights of the U.S. economy is up 36% - six times the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 index (.SPX). Put another way, this year's rise of these 10 mega tech stocks accounts for pretty much all of the S&P 500 gains. "But given how often the S&P 500 has been used as Exhibit A for overall 'resilience', it's important to acknowledge just how idiosyncratic this macro gauge has been." Are tech stocks overpriced? There are certainly plenty of concerns that these mega stocks may be overbought and just too expensive - even though that concern will hardly be a new worry for these stocks.

☆ 'Cracks in the foundation': 3 leading Wall Street strategists reveal the overlooked reason why stocks are on shaky ground right now — and how to invest with a downturn looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Instead, they've been propelled by large caps and growth stocks, specifically tech. If not for a small number of mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 wouldn't be staying afloat. Last year investors learned the hard way that narrow markets are dangerous, as tech stocks tumbled during the market selloff. "Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages," Wilson wrote in a late March note. Outside of tech, Lebovitz highlighted traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.

☆ Chart analysts see danger ahead as tech comeback starts to lose steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent comeback in technology stocks is beginning to lose its luster, and that could mean trouble for the broader market. "We think the clock is ticking on tech's absolute and relative performance, and expect it to catch-down to the rest of the market," Krinsky wrote. That's created a resistance range between 12,881 and 12,944 and a first support level within the 12,466-12,400 range. Suttmeier also sees promise in the fact that the Nasdaq has held support within range of its 11,695 mid-March low and 12,000. "If the NDX continues to hold this support, the US equity market can stabilize and build a bigger base," he wrote.

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Whipsawed U.S. stocks have gained an unexpected ally in recent days - a historic plunge in bond yields. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The index finished up 1.4% for the week, with strength in technology stocks outweighing sharp declines in bank shares. Tech stocks vs US bond yieldsThe near-term trajectory of yields will likely hinge on next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 trades at 17.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

☆ Global hedge funds gain in January, but not as much as stock market, HFR says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Global hedge funds posted a solid 2.8% gain in January, but they missed out on the stellar rally that broader stock market indexes posted to start the year because the funds were mostly positioned for a continued bear market, data provider HFR said on Tuesday. Last year, hedge funds posted their worst performance since 2018, mainly dragged down by equities as portfolio managers struggled to place bets amid market turmoil. Still, the main Wall Street indexes far outperformed hedge funds. Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage showed that last month hedge funds massively abandoned their bets against stocks as they became too expensive amid a rally. Relative value hedge funds, which trade price disparities, rose 1.95%, while macro hedge funds gained 0.26%, mainly dragged down by algorithm-driven and commodities strategies.

[1/2] Men walk past an electric board displaying Nikkei and other countries' indexes outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan January 16, 2023. After $14 trillion was wiped off world shares in 2022, $4 trillion has been added back this month. "Markets are in this Goldilocks-scenario of OK growth, slowing inflation and softer monetary policy," said Richard Dias, founder of London-based investment consultancy Acorn Macro. Major central banks have added almost 3,000 basis points to global borrowing costs in this tightening cycle to date. "We've had a monumental rally in government bonds based on expectations we've reached the peak in interest rates," he said.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Tech stock rebound faces doubters with earnings season ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) has gained over 3% in 2023, double the rise for the S&P 500 (.SPX). The Nasdaq 100 fell 33% in 2022, while the S&P 500 lost 19.4%. Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, and Google-parent Alphabet report the following week. Fourth-quarter earnings in the tech sector are expected to have declined 9.1% from a year ago, compared to a 2.8% decline for S&P 500 earnings overall, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 tech sector still trades at a roughly 19% premium to the broader index, above its 7% average of the past 10 years, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

☆ Elon Musk's Tesla, the world's leading EV maker, is capping off 2022 as one of the S&P 500's worst-performing stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But to Musk, prices have already started dropping, which eliminates the need for the Fed to keep rates so high. If it was all [interest] rates, NDX would be down a similar amount," Black tweeted at Musk. Ultimately, Tesla investors shouldn't feel alone in their pain amid downtrodden stock prices this year. How has your view of Tesla stock changed since October? Their managers told us how they overcame a brutal year for the stock market, and shared the stock picks that worked best.

☆ There's one big flaw in Elon Musk's argument that Tesla stock is falling because the Fed is raising interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Elon Musk has argued that Tesla stock has been crushed this year because the Fed is raising interest rates. But Musk's argument has one big flaw, according to Tesla investor and Future Fund manager Gary Black. But according to Musk, Tesla's stock price decline can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes this year rather than his outside business activities. If it was all [interest] rates, NDX would be down a similar amount," Black tweeted at the billionaire on Tuesday. The Fed hiked interest rates by only 50 basis points at its December FOMC meeting, compared to its prior four interest rate hikes of 75 basis points.

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