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America’s housing crisis continues to worsen
  + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington CNN —Homeowners in America aren’t the only ones struggling with an unaffordable housing market. A report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released last week showed that both homeowners and renters in recent years have become increasingly burdened by climbing housing costs. That’s all part of a broader struggle in the US housing market, and recent data shows that it hasn’t gotten any better. But there’s a problem: ChatGPT — soon to be integrated into Siri — is banned in China, reports my colleague Samantha Murphy Kelly. The Chicago Fed releases its National Activity Index for May.
Persons: ” Lael Brainard, , , Brainard, Biden, ” Brainard, ChatGPT —, Siri —, Samantha Murphy Kelly, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, Read, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, General Mills, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Homeowners, America aren’t, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Harvard, , White, Economic Council, Urban Institute, Administration, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, FedEx, Chicago Fed, Global, Index, Board, Micron, General, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Nike, McCormick, Walgreens, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Richmond Fed, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, America, Congress, China
By no means am I interested in tackling any impact policy differences may have upon non-market related subjects. Monetary policy So let's begin with monetary policy. Fiscal policy Now let's turn to fiscal policy. Trade policy Trade policy is easy. Regulatory policy Finally, the big kahuna, regulatory policy.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Clinton, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman —, Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell, Biden, Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson, Bill Dudley's, Covid, Trump, Cato, Stocks Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve, Fed, Trump Fed, Bloomberg, Democratic, Heritage, AEI, Biden Locations: China
The Fed on Tuesday released its Economic Well-Being of US Households report for 2023, examining the financial lives of US adults and their families. Inflation made the financial lives “worse” for 65% of US households, according to the report. Three-plus years of high inflation have taken their toll on Americans’ wallets and their psyches. That was especially true in 2022, when US inflation hit 9.1%, its highest annual rate in more than 40 years. Incomes grew healthily in 2023, but so did spending, the Fed report showed.
Persons: , Michelle Bowman, Tuesday’s, they’d Organizations: CNN, Reserve, Tuesday, Household Economics, Survey, , Federal Reserve
Tuesday’s wholesale inflation data, which jumped to its highest rate in a year, certainly wasn’t a source of comfort. “I wouldn’t call it hot, I would call it sort of mixed,” Powell said Tuesday, referring to the new wholesale inflation data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (center) spoke Tuesday at an event hosted by the Foreign Bankers' Association alongside European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot. Another troubling sign for US central bankers is consumers’ belief that inflation will move higher in the year ahead, according to two surveys Fed officials monitor closely. That can lead to higher prices.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Price, ” Powell, , Klaas, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Foreign Bankers ’ Association, European Central Bank Governing, Federal, Foreign Bankers, Association alongside European Central Bank Governing, Foreign Bankers Amsterdam, Locations: New York
US stocks jumped on Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average vied for an 8-day win streak. The upcoming April CPI report next week is the big data point that could move markets. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Friday, setting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up for a potential eight-day win streak. Next week, investors will be laser-focused on the Wednesday release of April's inflation report, with economists expecting a 0.3% rise in the consumer price index. Fundstrat's Tom Lee said a light CPI report next week could set the stock market up for more gains in May.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Michael Barr, Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Service, Federal Locations: Fundstrat, Here's
The 2-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, was marginally higher at 4.819%. U.S. Treasury yields were broadly flat early Friday as traders digested the jump in weekly jobless claims and what this could mean for interest rates. Relief at the auction outcome means traders are now firmly focused — once again — on the interest rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Weekly initial jobless claims, released Thursday, hit their highest level since August 2023, coming in at 231,000. It comes after the Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates as expected, but raised expectations of a cut in June.
Persons: , Henry Allen, Treasurys, Dallas, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England Locations: U.S, Minneapolis
The strong gains in May come ahead of a key CPI report, set to be released on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks traded higher on Friday, securing an eight-day winning streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she doesn't expect any interest rate cuts this year, while Fed President Lorie Logan said its still too early to be thinking about interest rate cuts based on the latest inflation data. The report will offer insights into when the Fed might move forward with interest rate cuts. Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects a lower-than-expected inflation report, which should send dovish signals to the Fed and push stocks higher for the rest of May.
Persons: , Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Dow, Fed, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Locations: Here's
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 8, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its longest win streak going back to December. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.51%, closing above 5,200 for the first time since early April. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were higher by 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Dow, Chris Hyzy, Stocks, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Minneapolis, Chicago
Initial claims climbed to 231,000 last week, marking the highest level since August. A handful of disappointing earnings results have come at the tail end of an otherwise upbeat season. AdvertisementMajor stock indexes were mixed on Thursday as traders mulled a fresh job report that showed the labor market cooling. A handful of disappointing earnings reports have capped off what's otherwise been a fairly upbeat earnings season. Markets will be tuned into more Fed speakers Thursday and Friday.
Persons: Stocks, , Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Department, Dow Jones, Warner Bros, San Francisco Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Here's
What is divestment? And does it work?
  + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
From Princeton University in New Jersey to the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, the same chant can be heard: “Disclose! The specifics of student protesters’ divestment demands vary in scope from school to school. Other students, like those at Cornell University and Yale, are asking their schools to stop investing in weapons manufacturers. Other common threads include demanding universities disclose their investments, sever academic ties with Israeli universities and support a ceasefire in Gaza. Proponents for divestment counter that its value lies in raising awareness and stigmatizing partnerships with targeted regimes or industries.
Persons: , ” Israel, Witold Henisz, Henisz, , Nicholas Dirks, ” Dirks, Dirks, “ They’ll, Anna Cooban, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Palestinian, Princeton University, University of Southern, Columbia University Apartheid, Columbia, Cornell University and Yale, Research, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, University of California, Columbia’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Dallas Fed, Samsung, AMD, Starbucks, Benz Group, Volkswagen, PayPal, adidas, Diamondback Energy, Restaurant Brands, Pinterest, Caesars Entertainment, PMI, Conference Board, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Marriott, eBay, US Commerce Department, Apple, Novo Nordisk, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Universal Music Group, Hershey, US Labor Department Locations: New York, New Jersey, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Columbia, Palestine, Israel, Gaza, South Africa, Berkeley, United States, Europe, DoorDash
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
What does the dollar rally mean internationally? The US Commerce Department releases March figures on new orders for durable goods. The US Commerce Department releases its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 20. The US Commerce Department releases March figures on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Persons: it’s, Michelle Bowman, Bell, Claudio Irigoyen, It’s, Samantha Delouya, , eMarketer, Ross Benes, Wall, Read, Lockheed Martin, Raymond James, Northrop Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Netflix, Verizon, Truist, Albertsons, The Chicago Fed, Visa, Tesla, Pepsico, Novartis, UPS, Lockheed, Banco Santander, Spotify, General Motors, Halliburton, Global, US Commerce Department, Meta, IBM, Boeing, Chipotle, Hilton, Ford, Hasbro, Whirlpool, Wyndham, Microsoft, Mobile, Caterpillar, Comcast, Intel, P Global, Honeywell, Gilead, Northrop Grumman, Valero, Capital, Nasdaq, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Citizens Financial, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Bank of Japan, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, HCA Healthcare, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, Charter Communications, University of Michigan Locations: Europe, Japan, China, Roku
Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.
Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas
Read previewFederal Reserve officials heaped more doubt on the timing of rate cuts this year, echoing Chair Jerome Powell in stating that the path to 2% inflation looks uncertain. The Fed has projected three rate cuts to come by the end of 2024. Fed Chair Powell suggested earlier in the week that rate cuts could be delayed, causing stocks to slide. Inflation risks haven't been lost on investors, who have been steadily dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the last few months. Markets are now expecting just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from six cuts that were anticipated at the start of 2024.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, John Williams, It's, Williams, Powell, haven't Organizations: Service, Cleveland Fed, Business, York Fed
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
Inflation slowed substantially in 2023 as the Fed lifted rates to nearly a quarter-century high and held them at that level since July. Still, most Fed officials have signaled that they plan to cut rates this year if the economy evolves as expected. And if the inflation situation worsens even further, the Fed may even have to consider raising rates. Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook. The timing of that first rate cut is critical because if the Fed cuts too soon, it risks locking in inflation at a high level.
Persons: hasn’t, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, John Williams, he’s, ” Williams, Williams, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Powell, Larry Summers, ” Summers, Summers, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, ” Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Boston, CPI, Bloomberg, UBS, Barclays, Bank of America Locations: Kashkari , New
New York CNN —Jamie Dimon warned two years ago that storm clouds and a hurricane were brewing in the US economy. On top of that, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for more than two years despite 11 rate hikes intended to slow the economy in an effort to curb decades-high inflation. But potentially persistent inflation isn’t the only red flag in the economy right now. Small-business owners haven’t felt this bad about the economy in over a decadeAlthough the economy is booming by many measures, including last month’s blowout jobs report, small business owners aren’t feeling gung-ho about it. That’s significant because that cohort is experiencing an even lower unemployment rate than the nation overall.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Bowman, ” Bowman, haven’t, Holly Wade, Bill Dunkelberg, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Federation of Independent, York Locations: New York
Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America
Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the March consumer price index will show prices rising by 0.3% on a monthly basis, less than February's 0.4% advance. Similarly, the March producer price index is expected to show an increase of 0.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Monday April 8 Tuesday April 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) Wednesday April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/06) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index PPI Earnings: CarMax Friday April 12 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) Earnings: State Street , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Progressive , Citigroup
Persons: Stocks, we're, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, FactSet, David Einhorn, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, Michelle Bowman, Bank's Tom Hainlin, Hainlin, Jamie Myers, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury Bond, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Treasury, Fed, Investment Group, Investors Intelligence, American Association of, Walmart, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Index, Treasury Budget NSA, Air Lines, Price Index, Progressive Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.
Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico
U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a second day in a rough start to the quarter. S&P 500 futures were lower by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.02%. The S&P 500 lost 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled nearly 1%. The S&P 500 is coming off its best first quarter since 2019. "We've heard day after day that we're either touching all-time highs or within reach of all-time highs.
Persons: Dow, Kristen, We've, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Levi Strauss Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nasdaq, Citi, Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
High interest rates squeeze companies of all sizes, but that’s especially the case for smaller firms, unlike large companies better equipped to weather the storm. Before the Bell: How do the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates on companies vary by size? I think it might be a stretch to say that M&A activity picks up because of higher interest rates, so instead, it’s that if good businesses are beginning to suffer because of higher interest rates, then they might be more likely to be a target. Gas prices always rise as winter winds down because demand increases and gas stations must switch over to more expensive summer fuel. No matter the cause, rising gas prices are bad news for consumers already frustrated by the cost of living.
Persons: It’s, Bell, Lauren Goodwin, Matt Egan, , Patrick De Haan, doesn’t, ” Read, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, AAA, , HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Barclays, Caesars Entertainment, Nvidia, Rivian, Fidelity, Marriott, Intuit, Pacific Gas & Electric, Global, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Warner Bros ., Icahn Enterprises Locations: Washington, Wingstop, United States
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
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