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☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Falling job openings raise red flags for the stock market - 'Sell the last hike'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

An ongoing decline in job openings is not a good sign for the stock market, according to Bank of America. Job openings have dropped 27% since their peak of 12 million in March 2022. The bank highlighted that since 2001, job openings and the S&P 500 have had a strong correlation. With job openings down 27% since their March 2022 peak of 12 million, that suggests the stock market is likely to follow. "Strong correlation between US job openings (labor demand) and stock market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.

Persons: bode, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, that's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America's, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Top fund managers flee emerging markets in fear of a potential global crisis, new survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Top investors are dumping emerging market equities and buying U.S. stocks at a record pace due to concerns about a potential global crisis, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that September saw a record jump in investor allocation to the U.S., and out of emerging market securities. The shift in asset allocation stemmed from a significant decline in China growth expectations. Bank of America's survey showed none of the respondents now expect a stronger economy in China, versus 78% when polled in February. Bank of America's survey showed investors see China real estate as the No.1 source of the next global credit event.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Survey, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Oil, the dollar, and the Fed still pose a triple threat to the US economy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Don't rule out a hard landing for the US economy just yet, according to Bank of America. Strategists led by Michael Hartnett warned that oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve all still pose a threat. Their gloomy outlook clashes with much of Wall Street, with top banks and the Fed itself having shelved their recession predictions. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Hartnett's team said the consensus view is that there's a 20% chance of a hard landing – but warned the trifecta of oil, the dollar, and the Fed each still pose an economic threat.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Susan Collins Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Fed, Service, Federal, West Texas, Boston Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brent, Russia, Saudi Arabia

Aug 25 (Reuters) - Strategists at BofA Global Research see second-half "trouble" for technology stocks even as the sector took in its largest inflow in 10 weeks, the firm said in a note on Friday. BofA pointed to the correlation between a surge in central bank liquidity and the Nasdaq over the past 15 years. "We say tech = H2 trouble rather than era of new AI rules," BofA said in the note. In the latest weekly data, the tech sector saw a $2.3 billion inflow, its largest inflow in 10 weeks, BofA said. Emerging markets debt meanwhile lost out, BofA said, seeing the largest weekly outflow since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, BofA, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alistair Bell Organizations: BofA, Research, Nasdaq, U.S . Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, New York, Amsterdam

☆ These 6 shocking twists show just how bad China's economy is right now, says Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Growth is stagnating, stocks have plummeted, and youth unemployment has spiked. Six numbers sum up the economic carnage, according to Bank of America. Beijing has responded by cutting interest rates – and also stopped publishing unflattering youth unemployment figures in a desperate attempt to pretend everything's OK. The ongoing liquidity crises for real-estate behemoth Country Garden and shadow bank Zhongrong are one potential source of "event risk," he added. Here's six other data points Hartnett picked out that show just how badly the world's second-largest economy is doing right now:

Persons: China's, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Beijing, China

☆ This one stock holds the key to the market and whether this August sell-off is something bigger
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's no secret that market leadership has become more concentrated over the years, but this is ridiculous. That one company is Microsoft , the behemoth with the $2.35 trillion market cap and, it seems, a position in the driver's seat on where the market goes next. In his weekly breakdown of money flows through the financial markets, BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett said Microsoft needs to reassert itself or face dragging down the rest of the stock market. MSFT YTD line Microsoft as market leader That's why it holds such a pivotal position in determining how things go from here. Harnett noted that the equity put/call ratio has hit its highest point since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, "a bad sign if stocks can't hold hold here."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, That's, Yul Brynner, Brynner, Chris Adams, gunfighters, Harnett, swoon Organizations: Bank of America, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Thursday's, Silicon

☆ Bank of America survey signals investors are overconfident and stocks' ‘strong tailwind’ is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Bear positioning strong tailwind for risk assets in H1…not the case in H2," Hartnett wrote in a summary of the closely watched survey. Cash allocations have dropped to 4.8% of portfolios, below the 5% dividing line that has traditionally been a buy signal. Even if there is a recession, managers expect it to be mild, with 65% expecting a "soft landing." Allocation to stocks is the least underweight as a share of portfolios since April 2022 and up 13 percentage points from July. The survey was taken Aug. 4-10 and entailed 247 panelists with $635 billion in assets under management.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, REITs, Lehman Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, FMS

☆ Here are the 9 smartest ways to invest in artificial intelligence right now, according to Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Here's how Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS recommend investing in AI. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are more optimistic about AI stocks after each expressed hesitations earlier this year as shares of companies tied to the technology exploded higher. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has dismissed concerns that AI stocks are in a bubble. "Inevitably, the market will compare AI to the dot-com boom," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim in a July report. As for chipmakers, Morgan Stanley agreed with Bank of America that the path forward is bifurcated.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Marcelli, Art Cashin, Michael Hartnett, Shawn Kim, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Vivek Arya, Wilson Organizations: Wall, Bank of America, UBS, Americas, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, Bank of, Accenture, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Consumer Locations: California, Snowflake, OpenAI

☆ Wall Street on ice ahead of big tech earnings, UK shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.

Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney

☆ Even the CEO of a top AI startup thinks that AI will 'be the biggest bubble of all time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Gabriel Rivera | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stability AI founder Emad Mostaque Courtesy of Stability AIThe CEO of one of the biggest AI startups warned that AI will "be the biggest bubble of all time." Emad Mostaque, the cofounder of Stability AI, compared the hype around the technology to the dot-com bubble, CNBC reported. Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque told UBS analysts that he thinks AI will "be the biggest bubble of all time," CNBC reported. "I call it the 'dot AI' bubble, and it hasn't even started yet," the cofounder of the generative AI startup said on the call, according to CNBC. And in May, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel was careful not to prognosticate about the future of AI companies.

Persons: Emad Mostaque, hasn't, Mostaque, Sam Altman, James Penny, Michael Hartnett, Dan Ives, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel Organizations: CNBC, Investment, Service, UBS, Investors, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Wedbush Securities Locations: Wall, Silicon, Pitchbook, Silicon Valley

☆ Fund managers still cautious despite big stock market rally, BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That fear has led a net 39% of survey respondents to say they are taking less risk than normal, a 2 percentage point increase from June. Interestingly, Hartnett noted that 66% retail investors as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors surveys are in stocks, the "most bullish since late 2021." Hartnett also noted a "capitulation" move out of commodities, as managers have taken their most underweight position in the sector since May 2020. The July survey captured the sentiment of 262 respondents with $652 billion in assets under management. Sentiment surveys often can be contrarian indicators, so rising pessimism can be a good sign for markets.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, U.S . Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, American Association of, Investors

☆ Bank of America's top stock picks for the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America is out with its latest short-term stock picks as the third trading quarter of the year gets underway. "Over the last quarter, the BofA Macro view has evolved," strategist Anthony Cassamassino wrote in a note Monday. Bank of America gathered its 10 best ideas for the new quarter, all of them buy-rated, Cassamassino said. The bank also sees multiple growth drivers this year and improvements in merchandise margins as cost inflation and freight expenses normalize. Its $135 price target on the stock is more than 50% above its closing price Friday.

Persons: Anthony Cassamassino, Savita Subramanian, Michael Hartnett, Michael Gapen, Stephen Suttmeier, Cassamassino, it's, Lamb Weston, Wells, defensibility Organizations: of America, U.S, Our U.S . Economist, " Bank of America, Body, Bank of America, Disney, Wells Fargo Locations: Our

☆ Is the AI-led 'baby bubble' bursting? BofA says tech stocks just saw their biggest outflow in 10 weeks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors just sold off $2 billion in tech shares, the largest outflow in 10 weeks. Previously, the bank called AI a "baby bubble," comparing it to the 2000s dot-com craze. Previously, Hartnett compared the excitement for AI to the dot-com bubble, when internet stocks boomed before the Nasdaq Composite plunged 78% in the early 2000s. In a prior note, he called Wall Street's excitement for AI a "baby bubble," and suggested that AI stocks could soon "mature" as internet stocks did in 1999. Along with Hartnett, UBS's Art Cashin and veteran economist David Rosenberg have also drawn parallels with the current boom in AI stocks to the dot-com bubble.

Persons: —, Michael Hartnett, Tesla, Hartnett, Cashin, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Service, Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Nasdaq, Labor

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The FOMO momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by I RYU/VCG via Getty Images)This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' streak snappedU.S. stocks fell Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their six-day winning streak. Tesla's self-driving ambitionsElon Musk said the value of Tesla depends on whether it can crack the code to self-driving vehicles. There are three factors, according to Hartnett, that'll allow stocks to continue their current rally — though he worries it'll be a "big rally before big collapse."

Persons: RYU, Elon Musk, Tesla, Antony Blinken, Qin Gang, Biden, Bull, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it'll Organizations: Microsoft, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, gilts, Amazon, China U.S, Foreign, Qin, Bears, Bank of America Chief Investment Locations: Seattle , Washington, Blinken, China, Beijing, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Fueled by the FOMO momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' streak snappedU.S. stocks fell Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their six-day winning streak. Asia-Pacific markets mostly dropped Monday as well, with markets in China, Japan and South Korea trading lower. Tesla's self-driving ambitionsElon Musk said the value of Tesla depends on whether it can crack the code to self-driving vehicles.

Persons: Antony Blinken, Qin Gang, Biden, China Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk, Tesla, Bull, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it'll Organizations: U.S ., Microsoft, CNBC, Nasdaq, China U.S, Foreign, Qin, Bears, Bank of America Chief Investment Locations: U.S, Issy, France, Asia, Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, Beijing, Wall

☆ Is the AI stock boom a dot-com-style bubble? David Rosenberg, Jeremy Siegel, and 5 other experts weigh in.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Experts including David Rosenberg and analysts from Wall Street banks including Bank of America have compared the AI stock boom to the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000. Here's a selection of the most recent expert views on this year's AI stock boom. But not everyone thinks the AI stock boom has run too far. Michael Hartnett, Bank of AmericaMichael Hartnett, BofA Global Research's CIO, said AI is in a "baby bubble" for now and noted that "AI = internet." Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professorThe retired Wharton finance professor doesn't see the AI hype as a bubble, either.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Dan Ives, —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Dan Raju, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Michael Hartnett, BofA, James Penny, TAM Asset Management James Penny, I'd, Art Cashin, Cashin, Rosenberg, doesn't Organizations: Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, Service, Wall, UBS, TAM Asset Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, BofA Global, firm's, Bloomberg, Art, CNBC Locations: Wall

☆ BofA's Hartnett admits 'bears like us have been wrong,' sees these conditions ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has joined his colleagues in admitting he was too pessimistic in his outlook for stocks this year. In his weekly note to clients examining the flow of money through the market, Hartnett took a jab at himself, labeling his outlook the product of "A Bear of Very Little Brain." Further, he outlined several reasons why "bears like us have been wrong" in the first half of 2023. On the economy, "nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor" while the labor market was "impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world," Hartnett wrote. These include deflation, emerging market stocks and "hard-landing plays" such as REITs and commercial real estate, banks, small-cap stocks, oil and China.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Savita Subramanian Organizations: of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed & US, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Locations: Silicon, China

☆ Bank of America highlights seven stocks that have driven most of this year's market gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Most of the stock market gains this year have been powered by a handful of tech-focused names that have posted outsized increases, according to Bank of America. Call them the S & P 7 — or, as the firm's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, labels them, the "Magnificent Seven." Together, the stock bloc has contributed 8.8 percentage points of the S & P 500 's total 10% increase, as of Thursday's close, for all of 2023. In May alone, the seven stocks posted a gain of 16%, thanks to Nvidia's earnings-fueled acceleration. "Monetary policy remains the 'big dog' & set to tighten in coming months… biggest reason we are not capitulating into risk despite price action," Hartnett wrote.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Jim Cramer, bitcoin, Hartnett, it's Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Big Tech, Federal Reserve Locations: China

☆ The AI craze drove investors to pour a record $8.5 billion into tech funds last week, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors poured a record $8.5 billion of cash into tech funds last week, Bank of America found. The AI "baby bubble" has become the dominant theme for markets, strategist Michael Hartnett said. Tech funds brought in a record $8.5 billion in the week ending May 31, the bank found. Contrarian-minded investors should sell AI stocks and buy shares in Hong Kong-listed companies, which could benefit from China's efforts to revive its faltering economy, Hartnett said. Read more: Tech stocks are outperforming their rivals by the most since the dot-com bubble

Persons: Michael Hartnett, —, Bill Ackman, Stanley, Hartnett, Read Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Service, Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Reserve Locations: ChatGPT, There's, Hong Kong

☆ Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.

☆ BofA says AI is in a 'baby bubble' that echoes the dot-com era, and one move could easily blow up the investment frenzy ignited by ChatGPT
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

What could burst the bubble is the Fed pausing rate hikes and then restarting the cycle. AI is in a "baby bubble" for now, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, wrote on Friday. The Fed may be on the way to pausing its run of rate hikes at its June 14 gathering. The dot-com bubble popped nine months later. "AI = internet," wrote Hartnett.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Tech is the 'most crowded trade' as stock-market bearishness rises to the highest levels so far this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are loading up on mega-cap tech stocks as they turn more bearish, according to Bank of America. The bank said tech is the "most crowded trade" followed by shorting banks and shorting the US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey, tech stocks are the "most crowded trade" on Wall Street as bearishness towards the broader stock market hits its highest level so far this year. Mega-cap tech stocks have a war chest of cash and a wide moat around their businesses that in the past have enabled steady growth during periods of economic weakness.

☆ Russia’s battered wartime economy is still chugging along as it taps its wealth fund, raises taxes, and ramps up imports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Shares of First Republic dropped more than 40% in pre-market trading today, while JPMorgan stock ticked 2.9% higher. Let's check in on Russia's wartime economy. To the surprise of many forecasters, Russia's economy has held up better than expected as it carries on into the second year of its war on Ukraine. And leaked documents, first reported by the Washington Post, suggest that Russia can fund its war for at least another year. Specifically, US intelligence says Moscow can rely on its sovereign wealth fund to help pay for its war efforts, as well as higher corporate taxes and ramped-up imports.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

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