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☆ It's Fed Day. Here's what markets are eyeing as Powell gets ready to speak.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is set to announce a critical policy decision today — hike (possibly), pause (likely), or cut (probably not). The Fed has made 10 consecutive rate hikes leading up to today, making for one of its most aggressive tightening campaigns ever. Tuesday's cooler-than-expected inflation data is still double the Fed's 2% target, which suggests there could be more hawkishness ahead. Meanwhile, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel suggested in a separate note that the Fed may actually be done with policy tightening altogether. He explained that, since he doesn't see a recession, the stock market could actually rally higher across all sectors because of investor FOMO.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Bahnsen, Mohamed El, —, Christopher Waller, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Tom Lee, FOMO, Read, Warren Buffett's, they're, Qatar's Sheikh Jassim, Jim Ratcliffe, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Reuters, Bahnsen, Reserve, Spar Group, Capital Economics, Berkshire Hathaway, Manchester United Locations: New York, London

☆ In another grim milestone for the housing market, 75% of homes are unaffordable for middle-income buyers, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Today we're bringing you the latest updates on housing, Russia's currency moves, and the outlook for tech stocks. Homebuyers are returning to the US housing market as mortgage rates fall. The housing market isn't getting any more affordable. It's so expensive right now that over 75% of homes are too pricey for middle-income buyers, the National Association of Realtors said. Tech stocks are in the midst of a "1995 moment."

Persons: I'm Max Adams, Let's, Scott Olson, Goldman Sachs, Wedbush's Dan Ives, They've, —, Elon, Tesla, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Getty, National Association of Realtors, Helix Biopharma Corp, MamaMancini's Holdings, Kremlin, Tech, EV, GM, Ford Locations: —, Russia, New York, London

☆ Markets think that a Fed pause on rate hikes is a sure thing after CPI shows inflation falling further in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets think the odds the Fed hits pause on further rate hikes this week are close to 100%. Fed fund futures pricing showed investors think the odds of a pause rose after the release of May's CPI. That figure jumped from around 75% before Tuesday morning's release of the Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooled to 4% year over year in May. That's the lowest rate of inflation in two years, and will be a big factor in whatever the Fed decides to do this week. May's CPI report showed prices rose 0.1% month over month, less than the 0.2% gain projected by economists.

Persons: —, David Bahnsen, Stocks Organizations: CPI, Consumer, Service, Markets, Federal, Reserve, Bahnsen

☆ Tesla stock is poised to surge 22% as GM and Ford charging partnerships represent huge monetization opportunity, Wedbush says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tesla shares are headed to $300, and the company is looking at big revenue gains from recent deals with Ford and GM. Wedbush on Friday raised its price target and said charging deals could bring in $3 billion of revenue. "In a nutshell, Musk and Tesla are playing chess while other automakers are playing checkers," Wedbush's Dan Ives wrote. That's according to Wedbush, which raised its 12-month price target for Tesla stock to $300 a share, from $215 a share. The Wedbush analyst also predicted rising demand for Tesla vehicles with recent price cuts in the US and China.

Persons: Wedbush, Tesla, Wedbush's Dan Ives, —, Dan Ives, Elon, Ives Organizations: Ford, GM, Service, Elon Musk's Locations: China

☆ Mark Cuban slams the SEC and says the Coinbase suit shows why no one trusts them
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mark Cuban slammed the SEC's decision to sue Coinbase this week. The famed investor said the regulator could have helped the exchange comply instead of sue. The SEC this week sued Coinbase and Binance for allegedly operating illegally in the US. "They don't want to help companies get to compliance they want to challenge them to get to compliance," Cuban wrote. On Tuesday, the SEC unveiled its lawsuit against Coinbase, a day after it sued Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao.

Persons: Mark Cuban, Coinbase, —, doesn't, SEC didn't, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Gary Gensler Organizations: SEC, Service, Securities, Exchange, Twitter, Coinbase Locations: Cuban

☆ Here's what the SEC's 'all-out assault' on crypto means for the market's 2 biggest players
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"If this goes poorly, it could be an existential issue for Coinbase," Jeff Blockinger, chief counsel at decentralized finance platform Vertex Protocol, told Insider. Sources told Insider they expect Coinbase to fight extremely hard against the suit, which essentially says its whole US operation is illegal. "This is an all-out assault, particularly in regards to Binance, but it is a broader assault on the industry. A deal just means 'the casino can stay open'From Smith's point of view, the real existential matter isn't the SEC's lawsuit but rather the nature of the market itself. "If the SEC and Coinbase cut some sort of deal, that just means the casino can stay open."

Persons: —, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao —, Binance, Zhao, Jeff Blockinger, it's, Brian Armstrong, he's, Coinbase, Gensler, Sam Bankman, Richard Smith, Ron Geffner, Goldberg, Geffner, There's, Smith Organizations: Coinbase, Service, Securities, Exchange Commission, Binance, SEC, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Bloomberg, The Foundation Locations: Cayman Islands, Alameda, SEC's

☆ The SEC charges Coinbase with violating securities regulations
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The SEC on Tuesday sued Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, with violating securities laws. The lawsuit comes one day after the SEC sued Binance and CEO, Changpeng Zhao for operating an illegal exchange and violating US regulations related to the offering of unregistered securities. The suit also takes aim at two other Coinbase services, Coinbase Prime and Coinbase Wallet. The SEC complaint says that these services included trading of crypto assets that are considered securities, "bringing Coinbase's operations squarely within the purview of the securities laws." Read the full SEC lawsuit here.

Persons: Coinbase, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, — Organizations: SEC, Service, Court Southern District of, Coinbase, Sigma, Binance's, Sigma Chain Locations: Court Southern District of New York

☆ The SEC is suing Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for violating securities regulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The SEC is suing Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao. The SEC alleged that Binance diverted customers' funds to a trading firm called Sigma Chain that was under Zhao's control. The regulator also said Sigma Chain conducted fraudulent trades to artificially inflate Binance's volume. In February, the Journal reported the SEC was looking into the relationship between the US arm of Binance and two trading firms with ties to Zhao. One area of the investigation's focus was how Binance.US disclosed to customers its links to the trading firms, the report said.

Persons: Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, —, Binance's Zhao Organizations: SEC, WSJ, Service, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Monday, Street Journal, Sigma, Sigma Chain, District of Columbia, Commodities Futures, Trading Commission, Palestinian, Justice Department, Washington Post, Western, of, Reuters Locations: District, Binance.US, Russian, of Washington, Seattle

☆ Crypto and blockchain technology can be crucial tools that help keep AI from running wild, Coinbase says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Blockchain technology could be a safeguard that prevents artificial intelligence from running amok, Coinbase said. Few crypto projects are currently working in AI, but there's a wide range of problems blockchain can address. Blockchain could help combat the spread of misinformation and shed light on AI decision-making. Demand for computational resources - Generative AI requires a lot of computing power, and blockchain could help by creating a system where resources are shared. "Integrating blockchain technology into AI models can help make those processes more transparent and allow users to scrutinize the logic and reliability of AI-produced outcomes."

Persons: Coinbase, —, David Duong, Duong Organizations: Service

☆ Home buyers are facing the least affordable market on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Joe Raedle / Getty ImagesEdward Seiler is the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Phil Rosen: The MBA's Purchase Applications Payment Index just hit a new high in April. For new home buyers, this is the worst situation since the end of the Great Recession. Current homeowners that were lucky enough to get a 2.75% interest rate in 2022 are in a great position, but for new buyers looking to buy a first home, or those looking to move to another home, it's a very daunting proposition. In his view, monthly payments for first-time buyers are up roughly one-third compared to last year — and that's going to keep buyers on the sidelines and weigh on demand.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen —, Joe Raedle, Edward Seiler, Phil Rosen, Jen, Hsun Huang, Huang, Kim Kulish, Gregg Fisher, he's, Jensen Huang, It's, There's, Evercore's Mark Mahaney, Meta, shouldn't, David Rosenberg, who's, Larry Pitkowsky, Max Adams Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Twitter, Nvidia Corp, GPU Technology, Nvidia, Treasury Department, Fed, Tech Locations: San Jose , California, New York

☆ Putin’s war on Ukraine is only costing a tiny sliver of Russia’s GDP
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Direct war spending, according to the report, is estimated to be about 3% of Russia's GDP, or about $67 billion a year. The US put about 50% of its GDP toward war near the same time. That makes it hard to justify spending a lofty percentage of GDP on what is not a war, in their view. All this isn't to say Russia's economy hasn't been hamstrung. Are you surprised by the relatively low fiscal cost of Russia's war?

Persons: Phil Rosen, Patrick Harker, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Metzel, Vladimir Putin's, hasn't, that's, Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs, it's, Realtor.com, Read, Jonathan Miller, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal Reserve, Philly Fed, Economist, Technology, American Locations: Manhattan, Washington, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Soviet Union, India, Saudi Arabia, New York, London

☆ Dow jumps 700 points as US stocks soar on end to the debt ceiling fight and strong May jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow soared 700 points to end the week as traders cheered the end of the debt ceiling fight. The Senate voted to send the bill to raise to country's borrowing limit for two years to Biden's desk. Markets were also encouraged by strong nonfarm payroll data that showed employers added 339,000 jobs in May. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had warned that the US would run out of cash in early June without raising the debt ceiling. Nonfarm payroll data for May showed that employers added 339,000 jobs last month, blowing past estimates of 180,000.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Janet Yellen Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed

☆ Here's why the upcoming OPEC meeting will be a 'pivotal' moment as tensions simmer between Russia and Saudi Arabia over global oil supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The meeting comes as Russia continues to pump cheap crude oil into the global market. Tensions have risen as cheap Russian oil drives crude below a key break-even level for Saudi Arabia. "The OPEC+ meeting on June 4 should be pivotal," investor Louis Nevallier wrote in a note on Friday. Nevallier said that he expects a "very assertive" Saudi Arabia to show up to the meeting. The report said the country's budget needs international oil prices to stay above $81 a barrel.

Persons: —, Louis Nevallier, ussia, Nevallier, there's, Brent Organizations: Service, Reuters Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Saudi, India, Riyadh, Ukraine

☆ The stock market's strong 2023 performance comes down to just 5 massive companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Anyway, this lopsided distribution is exactly what's showing up in the stock market right now. The S&P 500 has climbed about 9.2% this year, but just five stocks are powering most of that gain in an even more extreme rendition of the Pareto distribution. In previous streaks of strong outperformance of five months or more by supersized companies, he pointed out that the S&P 500 has averaged returns of 6.7% in the subsequent six months. "[P]utting mega caps aside, we found that narrow market breadth in general does not represent a bad omen for S&P 500 performance despite the contrary narrative being pushed by many investors," Belski added. What's your outlook for the rest of the stock market this year, not including mega-caps?

Persons: Phil Rosen, ChatGPT, Tim Cook, Jerod Harris, Brian Belski, Belski, Elon Musk, Jonathan Ernst, Redfin, Larry Pitkowsky, Bitcoin, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Apple, Getty, Nvidia, Microsoft, BMO, Reuters, Dell Technologies, Broadcom, Bank of America Locations: Beijing, China, United States, New York, London

☆ Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI race. Its stock isn't the only reason why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Last week I asked you all a question in the newsletter — Do you own Nvidia stock? One of you even told me you first bought the stock when Nvidia was $16(!) Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. A secretive hedge fund has likely notched a $5 billion gain on Nvidia stock this year. Shares of the company hovered near their biggest single-day spike ever, and the chipmaker credited AI for its upbeat quarterly outlook.

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.

☆ This investor holds $74 million in Tesla stock. Here's why he's bullish on the future of Elon Musk's EV company.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here — today I'm excited to share my conversation with a high-profile Tesla shareholder who recently campaigned for a board seat at Elon Musk's company. Twitter CEO Elon Musk appearing at a 2022 Tesla event. Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty ImagesRoss Gerber is the cofounder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, and holds 420,000 shares of Tesla stock, or about $74 million based on Tesla's current stock price. RG: You gotta own Tesla in your portfolio with Elon re-focused on Tesla. The strength of the US consumer is at risk as 43 million borrowers are set to resume student loan payments.

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ Investors have turned away from a key part of the stock market. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., October 23, 2018. US stock futures rise early Thursday, as investors await the weekly jobless claims report to measure the strength of the labor market. It revealed just a week ago that it already holds $1.5 billion of the world's most popular token. Here are the five bank stocks to bet on now. The tech giant's stock has rallied on its AI efforts, and it surpassed the key threshold for the first time since May 2022.

☆ Dow surges 400 points as Biden and lawmakers inch closer to a debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped Wednesday as lawmakers made progress on debt ceiling negotiations. President Biden and members of Congress are getting closer on a deal after weeks of deadlock. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "I'm confident we'll get the agreement on the budget, that America will not default on its debt," Biden said on Wednesday morning. While an actual default was widely thought to be unlikely, the possibility of such a scenario has weighed on markets in recent weeks.

☆ A bright spot in the economy is at risk as 30 million Americans face student loan payments for the first time since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

More than 43 million Americans together owe $1.6 trillion in student loans. That additional load could weigh on consumer spending, and eventually increase delinquencies on other payments like credit cards and personal loans, strategists said. "We view the resumption of student loan debt payments as an incremental headwind for borrowers and consumer finance companies," BofA said. This, in other words, means the odds of the hotly-anticipated recession are about to go up as consumers divert cash back to student loan payments. Do you have student loans?

☆ The AI boom shakes up stocks, disrupts tech, and could be on the brink of its 'iPhone' moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over the last several months, I've turned to ChatGPT for research, book summaries, and even pasta recipes. It was only in March that Bank of America strategists declared that AI was on the brink of its "iPhone moment," and that it was about to change the world forever. In the stretches he's referring to, stocks appreciated 15% on average, and inflation's also declined, something that would be welcome news for the Fed right now. The giant's quarterly iPhone sales slowed last quarter, and shareholders may have to brace for another snag. Apple's "base business is stagnating and its high-margin apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins," Wood said.

☆ Elon Musk is giving Tesla shareholders reason for bullishness after his big Twitter announcement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wedbush maintained its outperform rating for Tesla, and shared a 12-month price target of $215, or about 27% higher than the current share price. The long wait times for vehicles, according to Piper Sandler, is a bullish sign because it means demand is robust. "The answer is complex, because wait times don't solely reflect consumers' appetite for buying Teslas vs. other cars." In effect, the lengthy wait times should be "interpreted favorably," in Potter's view. Piper Sandler's price target for Tesla is $280 a share, or more than 65% higher from current levels.

☆ Timing the market isn't easy during a debt-ceiling showdown. Investors should stick to this strategy instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMark Hamrick is senior economic analyst for Bankrate. Phil Rosen: How should investors be positioning themselves as the debt-ceiling fiasco drags on, and a potential default nears? If making a play around the debt ceiling is a no-go in your view, what should investors opt for instead? Homeowners are "quiet quitting" as low inventory and high mortgage rates keep a key market participant sidelined. That has a dual impact: each owner that postpones looking for a new house also marks one less seller on the market.

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