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☆ Wall Street is getting more optimistic the U.S. can avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street has gone from more than a year of worrying about a recession to thinking that one actually may not happen. At this point, the outgoing executive said, it doesn't even matter much if the U.S. hits a technical recession. "What matters is if you have a deep recession that changes the unemployment, and that's not happening," he said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is among those who think the economy can avoid a recession even with 5 percentage points worth of rate hikes since March 2022. Finally, those expecting a "soft landing" for the economy rose to 68%, against 21% of those who see a hard landing.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill, Hill, Gorman, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Citi, Reserve, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey Locations: U.S

☆ Fund managers still cautious despite big stock market rally, BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That fear has led a net 39% of survey respondents to say they are taking less risk than normal, a 2 percentage point increase from June. Interestingly, Hartnett noted that 66% retail investors as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors surveys are in stocks, the "most bullish since late 2021." Hartnett also noted a "capitulation" move out of commodities, as managers have taken their most underweight position in the sector since May 2020. The July survey captured the sentiment of 262 respondents with $652 billion in assets under management. Sentiment surveys often can be contrarian indicators, so rising pessimism can be a good sign for markets.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, U.S . Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, American Association of, Investors

☆ Analysis: Investors shelve China assets before bigger stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A view of the city skyline, ahead of the annual National People's Congress (NPC), in Shanghai, China February 24, 2022. A global fund manager survey by BofA Securities showed shorting Chinese stocks was the second-most "crowded" trade in June, after going long on big tech. "I can't believe that there is anymore bad news to absorb," said Andy Maynard, head of equities at China Renaissance. Restoring confidence is looking increasingly like a long-term project and investors are positioning for a longer game and a slower rebound. "We are all looking for something a bit more decisive in helping to restore animal spirits, investor confidence and market confidence, and I think that hope may be still at risk of being disappointed."

Persons: Aly, Morgan Stanley, Hong, Dong Chen, Andy Maynard, Morgan, James Liu, Guan Yi, Summer Zhen, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National People's Congress, REUTERS, BofA Securities, Pictet Wealth Management, China, Reuters, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, Beijing, Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Pacific

Can that real wage growth persist if the jobs market now loosens with a lag from the swingeing five percentage points of rate hikes in just 15 months? What's more, other surveys have yet to show inflation expectations falling so sharply or lifting confidence. The possibility of a disinflation spur to demand at this juncture may complicate that picture considerably. Importantly, the slower fall in inflation in both Britain and the euro zone means real wage growth remains negative - unlike the latest twist stateside. Bank of America chart on investor survey growth outlookReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD.

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Dom Wilson, Mike Dolan, Alexander Smith Organizations: University of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Bank of, UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Europe, Britain

☆ Fundstrat's Tom Lee shares his S&P 500 target for 2024 and names stocks to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 has further upside going into next year, predicts Tom Lee, managing partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors. Lee said he believes that comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week are giving stocks the "green light" to rally further. "Whenever you are at a turning point for earnings, that's really when you want to be long cyclicals and essentially risk-on sectors," Lee said. I think that's why … it's a green light for stocks to continue to rally." In a separate June 14 report, Lee said he would "buy the dip on a hawkish pause" and "buy a 5% pullback in stocks."

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, that's, Powell, he's Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, BofA, Survey, Microsoft, Nvidia, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, American Express, Apple

It overtook Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 9%, in late May for the first time this year. In dollar terms, the STOXX 600 (.STOXXD) is still lagging, having gained 11.3% in 2023, while the euro is up 1.1%. "Relative to the U.S., European equities are looking less interesting and attractive," said Bernie Ahkong, co-chief investment officer at fund manager UBS O'Connor Global Multi-strategy Alpha. The euro zone economy was in technical recession in the first quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed last week. "But Europe looks even more unattractive than the U.S., because the temporary good data from Europe is really going to turn."

Persons: Europe's, Bernie Ahkong, UBS O'Connor, Ahkong, Geoffroy Goenen, Candriam, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, Hani Redha, Alex Richardson Organizations: UBS, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, U.S, Bank of America's, Eurostat, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China, PineBridge, United States

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

"A longer timeframe shows that foreign investors have been net sellers of Japanese equities by a considerable margin. We think long-term investors remain lightly positioned," they wrote last week in a note "Upside risks in Japanese equities". Non-residents sold nearly $4 billion of Chinese stocks in April, according to the Institute of International Finance, the first outflow in six months. Bank of America's monthly fund manager surveys show that "long" Chinese equities was the most crowded global trade in January. That has been scaled back significantly and investors have reduced their net overweight position in Chinese stocks, but they are still comfortably net overweight.

☆ Sideways stock market is making traders crazy, but the pain trade is still up
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Second quarter guidance is light, but guidance is unchanged for the year. Traders are "not sure they should be leaning into, or out of, the market," Craig Johnson at PiperSandler tells me. One of the favorite indicators traders like to use is the "pain trade." "The pain trade is up," Johnson, a chief market technician, tells me. "Everyone is negatively positioned; the real risk is they get caught offsides and the market moves higher."

☆ Morning bid: Biden, Republicans set for debt ceiling face-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indyk. President Joe Biden and senior Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, are to sit down on Tuesday in an attempt to thrash out a deal to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. That relative calm has been reflected in the latest Bank of America fund manager survey for May. Equity allocations rose to a five-month high, while a vast majority (71%) expect the U.S. to agree on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called "X-date". Away from the debt ceiling and the Federal Reserve's data dependency will be tested with the latest retail sales and industrial production figures.

☆ Tech is the 'most crowded trade' as stock-market bearishness rises to the highest levels so far this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are loading up on mega-cap tech stocks as they turn more bearish, according to Bank of America. The bank said tech is the "most crowded trade" followed by shorting banks and shorting the US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey, tech stocks are the "most crowded trade" on Wall Street as bearishness towards the broader stock market hits its highest level so far this year. Mega-cap tech stocks have a war chest of cash and a wide moat around their businesses that in the past have enabled steady growth during periods of economic weakness.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show that speculators have built up record short positions in two- and five-year Treasuries futures, and a record net short aggregate position when 10-year bonds are added to the mix. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. The latest CFTC data show that in the week through May 9 speculative accounts grew their net short position in two-year Treasuries by 116,409 contracts - the biggest increase in over two years - to a new record 749,885 contracts. Funds also increased their net short position in five-year bonds for a third straight week by a slender 412 contracts, to a fresh record 910,642, while they trimmed their net short position in the 10-year space slightly to 731,698 contracts. Funds were ultra-bearish the five-year and 10-year bonds in late 2018, but nowhere near as bearish on two-year Treasuries.

That is the biggest net short position since October 2011, and marks the fourth week in five that funds have increased their bet on weaker U.S. stocks. Reuters ImageA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. It has been a mixed bag with almost a fifth of the S&P 500 firms having reported. The S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10% from the March banking shock lows, and if the options market is any guide, traders are sanguine about the near-term outlook. The VIX index of implied volatility - the Wall Street "fear index" - last week hit its lowest since November 2021.

☆ Stock ETFs are seeing accelerated inflows even as grimmer Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stock ETFs pulled in more than $12.6 billion in April, according to data from Bloomberg. It's the largest inflow into such funds since January and more than double the pace seen in February and March. Investors are pouring large amounts into equity ETFs even as Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote: "In late October, we concluded that sentiment was so bearish it had to be bullish." Then, the current bull market is likely to resume, in our opinion," according to the Yardeni Research founder.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 21 (Reuters) - Even though it may surprise some that it's positive at all, the risk premium on equity over bonds has hit historic lows - a key driver of the recent dash for fixed income. The so-called equity risk premium (ERP), the extra return investors can expect for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds, is hovering around its lowest level since before the Great Financial Crisis. The S&P 500 earnings yield is calculated dividing the latest or forecast 12-month earnings per share by the market's current level. The ERP is then arrived at by subtracting a benchmark bond yield, say 10-year, from the equity market earnings yield. "The earnings yield is not what it used to be but it is still attractive relative to other opportunities," Jaffee said.

MSCI's Europe index, for example, still trades more than a point below its average historic valuation - with the index priced at less than 13 times its 12-month forward earnings. The top sectoral weighting in the STOXX Europe 50, for example, is healthcare - at almost 23%. With British-based stocks the biggest country weighting in the STOXX Europe index at 26%, the other top four sectors in the index include the food, beverages and tobacco grouping, consumer products, industrial goods and energy. The dollar peaked late last year against most European currencies as the Federal Reserve raced to ratchet up interest rates. Some think the slide in the dollar index of some 12% since last September is barely half of the whole move.

☆ Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it. That is a good thing: sentiment indicators are mostly useful at extremes, and when sentiment gets this pessimistic it is usually associated with at least short-term market bottoms. This morning, for example, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets also pointed out that many sentiment indicators were at extremes. In theory, this is good news: she notes that when sentiment gets this bad, the S & P 500 is up 15% on average over the next 12 months. Other sentiment indicators are also at extremes.

Britain and Norway hiked rates by 25 bps each, the Swiss National Bank jacked up rates by 50 bps. The European Central Bank hiked rates by 50 bps a week ago. ClearBridge strategist Jeffrey Schluze said, European banking regulation since the global financial crisis has been more stringent than in the United States, making the outlook for European lenders relatively strong. While banking stocks have been battered globally, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% this month (.SPX), while Europe's STOXX 600 index down 3.2% (.STOXX). CHANGE IN TONEBefore the banking turmoil, markets were driven by one-way moves as high inflation pressured U.S. and European markets.

☆ Investor pessimism is reaching extremes, and that may be good for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The monthly Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows "investor sentiment close to levels of pessimism seen at lows of past 20 years," according to the survey. This pessimism is consistent with other investor sentiment surveys. The weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, out last Thursday, was at a 6-month low for bullish sentiment and close to the levels of last September, which were near historic lows. Two rules about sentiment indicators: 1) they are contrarian indicators, and 2) they are most useful when the readings are at extremes (as they are now). The firm also noted that other sentiment indicators (money flows, private clients' asset allocation) are not yet in "capitulation" territory.

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning bid: When meeting expectations isn't enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That sent the S&P down but the Nasdaq index ended up, while two-year Treasury yields rose to 3.799, the highest since January. It looks like markets are still unable to make up their minds on the data's long-term impact. Officials said the U.S. central bank would need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation. After the inflation data, traders of interest rate futures now see the Fed raising borrowing costs three more times, bringing the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range by July, if not June. Meanwhile, investors turned more optimistic about the global economy in February, flocking to emerging market stocks and cutting their cash holdings to levels last seen before the war in Ukraine, a BofA survey of global investors showed on Tuesday.

☆ There's a new most crowded trade on Wall Street — and it's not in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.

☆ Fund managers rush into emerging stocks and cut cash - BofA survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The survey of 299 fund managers, with a combined $847 billion in assets under management, found investors were still broadly cautious, but less so than been in recent months. Just 24% predict a recession compared to 77% who did in November, according to the survey conducted in the week to Feb. 9. Investors remain net overweight cash and underweight equities, but a combined index that measures growth expectations, cash allocations and equity allocations improved to its highest level in a year. "(Fund manager survey) investors remain pessimistic in February but to a lesser degree, with all key measures of sentiment improving (month on month) and shift in positioning highlighting stronger risk appetite," BofA analysts said in a note. It also found that "long China stocks" was now the most crowded trade along with long investment grade bonds, replacing long US dollar cash.

☆ Wall Street is feeling bearish, but a rare stock market pattern is hinting at a bull rally to kick off 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. There is little optimism for stocks among Wall Street's foot soldiers, according to the latest fund manager survey from Bank of America. As BofA pointed out, that means the so-called "pain trade" in the stock market is higher, and any sudden rally would catch investors off-guard. But Wall Street survey be damned, stocks seem to be on the brink of a rare, bullish trifecta. The surge has pushed the world's most largest crypto token to levels not seen since before the fall of FTX.

☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.

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