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☆ After 3 years of pain, America has finally achieved economic nirvana
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

The October jobs report — with the economy adding just 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% — was a disappointment. Of particular notice, the unemployment rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past six months. A simple way to show that things are still in balance is to look at Okun's law, a relationship between movements in the unemployment rate and economic activity. The historical record shows that once it rises half a percentage point, the unemployment rate tends to rise even more. The unemployment rate is already above the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.8% — the first time that's happened since March 2022.

Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, It's, we're, What's, what's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro Locations: joblessness, nonfarm payrolls

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - After making hay when a summer bond rout propelled the U.S. dollar to 10-month highs, hedge funds are now pondering what lies ahead for the greenback. Five funds shared their views on the fate of the dollar. This does not represent recommendations or trading positions, which some hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. He expects the U.S. economy to slow sharply which, alongside falling inflation, will likely hurt the dollar against some emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, trading at 4.8908 per dollar , is up roughly 8% so far this year against the dollar.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jonathan Fader, Fader, Doug Greenig, Florin Court's, Greenig, Tara Hariharan, Hariharan, NWI, Carlos Calabresi, Michael Sager, Sager, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, greenback, Swiss, Reuters, FLORIN, China Foreign Exchange Trade, Long, Garde, CIBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, China, Asia, Brazilian, London, Carolina, New York

☆ Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf gives the technical take for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf gives the technical take for 2024Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market setup and the technicals he's seeing.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ German housebuilding is collapsing — and could drag the economy down with it
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.

Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, —, Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg

☆ Home builders are in a secular run, says Strategas' Chris Verrone
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHome builders are in a secular run, says Strategas' Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss opportunities outside the tech sector.

Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ Focus on the trend of price not of breadth, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFocus on the trend of price not of breadth, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his year-end level expectation, Disney and market trends.

Persons: Jeff DeGraaf Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ The Dow is nearing the dreaded 'death cross.' What investors should know
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the two cross over, it would form the dreaded "death cross," which can indicate that momentum is weakening or sentiment is souring — and more downside could be on the horizon. It would be the first death cross for the average since late 2022. 'Something bad could happen' The threat of a death cross also underscores challenges specific to the Dow this year. Oppenheimer managing director Ari Wald advised investors to stay away from indexes near or at the death cross like the Dow or the Russell 2000 . Ultimately, technical analysts argue the death cross is both an important yet flawed measure.

Persons: Todd Walsh, Jeff deGraaf, That's, deGraaf, John Kolovos, Dow, Kolovos, Alpha Cubed's Walsh, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Alpha Cubed Investments, Macro, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve

☆ Yields fall, stocks jump after Fed official comments; oil eases
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2022. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank does not need to raise rates any further, and sees no recession ahead. Late on Monday, top-ranking Fed officials indicated that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could keep the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate. U.S. Treasury yields fell on the comments but also partly in reaction to continuing violence in the Middle East. In late morning trading, U.S. 10-year yields were last down 10.6 basis points (bps) at 4.676%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Raphael Bostic, Israel, Stan Shipley, Brent, shekel, Amanda Cooper, Kane Wu, Stella Qiu, Christina Fincher, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Treasury, Federal, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed Bank, Cash Treasury, Columbus Day U.S, Fed, ISI, Dow Jones, U.S, Garden Holdings, HK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Israel, Gaza, New York, London, Hong Kong, Sydney

The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, ‘, we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ”, Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London

☆ Renaissance's Jeff Degraaf explains why he's bullish on the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance's Jeff Degraaf explains why he's bullish on the marketJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research Chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to break down the current market and why he has pivoted to a bullish stance.

Persons: Jeff Degraaf, Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Strategas' Chris Verrone on Nvidia: We are sellers of strength
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategas' Chris Verrone on Nvidia: We are sellers of strengthChris Verrone, Strategas head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss rates and the yield breakout.

Persons: Chris Verrone Organizations: Nvidia

☆ Germany's DAX index to remain 'pretty flat' for the rest of the year, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGermany's DAX index to remain 'pretty flat' for the rest of the year, Goldman Sachs saysPeter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs, said Germany's DAX index is expected to remain 'pretty flat' for the rest of the year because of "zero profit growth" in 2023. Oppenheimer anticipates profits at German companies will rise by 5% next year.

Persons: DAX, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Germany's DAX, Oppenheimer Locations: Europe

☆ Recession-hit Germany is facing a flurry of global headwinds, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The victory column and TV tower are pictured in front of the sunrise in Berlin, Germany. Germany finds itself at a crossroads of global issues as it deals with an economic contraction, according to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research EMEA at Goldman Sachs. "The predicament that the economy is facing at the moment is really down to a number of factors," Oppenheimer told CNBC Tuesday, with challenges in the manufacturing sector, a disappointing China reopening boost and higher energy costs contributing to the recession in Europe's largest economy. "It's … not a deep recession but it's obviously been more hit by obvious headwinds," Oppenheimer said. The comments reflect the latest projection by the Bundesbank, which estimated Monday that the German economy is likely to shrink this quarter thanks to slow private consumption and industry stuttering.

Persons: Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs, Oppenheimer Organizations: Goldman, CNBC Locations: Berlin, Germany, China

☆ European retailers risk dressing-down from investors as consumers flinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsThe broader STOXX 600 (.STOXX) is up by 7% this year, meaning retailers are outperforming by the most on record. The snag is that this stellar run has been partly built on investors unwinding bearish bets, or short positions, on retail stocks, after last year's pessimism proved overdone. This means retail stocks might not see as many willing buyers as earlier this year. Jones expects retail stocks to fall in the second half of the year. JPMorgan downgraded the grocery retail sector this month and flagged the prospect of price declines going into 2024.

Persons: Inditex, unwinding, Benjamin Jones, Jones, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, WH Smith, Alexandre Bompard, LSEG, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reuters, Macro, Multi, Management, Carrefour, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Zara, bullish, LSEG, Britain

☆ Goldman Sachs confident of no US recession — and that's not bad for equities, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs confident of no US recession — and that's not bad for equities, strategist saysPeter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research for Europe at Goldman Sachs, discusses positioning for a "relatively moderate index environment."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer Locations: Europe

With average house prices having surged 25% during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest rates and higher living costs in a struggling economy have driven many to rent while they anticipate house prices will fall. All but one predicted prices would fall this year. House prices were forecast to stagnate next year, an upgrade compared to the 2.0% fall predicted three months ago. That comes after many years of close to zero and negative policy interest rates following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic. Eleven of 14 respondents said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Sebastian Schnejdar, Indradip Ghosh, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Housing, ING, European Central Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

☆ Germany is struggling to move away from its ‘sick man of Europe’ image
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Germany was first described with that moniker in 1998 as the country navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy. The issues weighing on Germany's economy can be separated into "two very separate battles," Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute for World Economy, told CNBC. "It is a different sickness [compared to] 20 years ago," Brzeski told CNBC. Energy obstaclesLike most of Europe, Germany's energy prices have been volatile following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Many Germany-headquartered businesses are doing well globally, but they are struggling with operations in their own country," Siegfried Russwurm, head of the German Industry Federation, told CNBC in June.

Persons: DANIEL ROLAND, aren't, it's, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Jasmin Groeschl, Stefan Kooths, Carsten Brzeski, China's, Brzeski, Groeschl, Joerg Kraemer, Kooths, Siegfried Russwurm Organizations: Frankfurt Cathedral, AFP, Getty, International Monetary Fund, Berenberg, CNBC, Europe, Allianz, Kiel Institute, World, ING Research, German Industry Federation Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, France, China, Kiel, Ukraine

☆ Strategas' Chris Verrone on the re-energized energy sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategas' Chris Verrone on the re-energized energy sectorChris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the mean reversion and the energy rebound.

Persons: Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners

☆ The US will be 'drowning in debt' over the next 30 years as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.

Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ There's been an overt change in commodity leadership recently, says Strategas' Chris Verrone
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's been an overt change in commodity leadership recently, says Strategas' Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what has Verrone's eye, if the growth in Crude is sustainable, and the path for bond yields.

Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners

☆ Morgan Stanley: Buy these 15 high-quality stocks that will maintain stable profits during a volatile earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Earnings season is underway, and so far results have beaten expectationsBut Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson worries there's weakness lying below the surface. He found 15 high-quality stocks with strong profits to invest in now. Investors are neck-deep in earnings as second quarter reports roll in, and so far the news has been good, but not great. In a note to clients from earlier in the week, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote that he anticipates earnings results will be better than Wall Street predicted. Then, they pared the stocks they found down to those with a bullish overweight rating from Morgan Stanley analysts.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Julian Emanuel, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell, Rather Organizations: Wall

☆ The easy money phase of this rally is probably behind us, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe easy money phase of this rally is probably behind us, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the overall equity markets, whether the markets will continue to broaden their rally, and more.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Forget recessions and vibecessions, we're in the middle of a confused-as-hell-cession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Sirena Bergman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk is confused as hell by the economy. It feels like a recession is coming, but the details are hard to understand for the average person. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. No wonder we're all spending less time doing our jobs, we're too exhausted from trying to figure this all out. It's a confused-as-hell-cession, and Elon Musk has never been more relatable.

Persons: Elon Musk, you've, you'll, Neil Dutta, who's, It's Organizations: Service, Elon, York Life Investments, Macro Locations: Wall, Silicon

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