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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets fall on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Markets had widely anticipated, and priced in, 25 basis-point interest rate hikes for the Fed's next two meetings. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets drop on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2019. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Stock futures slip Thursday night as inflation data, Fed officials' comments worry investors: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures slipped on Thursday night after the major averages suffered declines amid concerns of stubbornly high inflation metrics. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Fed commentary aside, consumers have been a key focal point for investors this week, particularly in light of the latest round of inflation and retail sales data. There are things to be happy about — the labor market is still tight," SoFi's head of investment strategy Liz Young said on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime." Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will be speaking about the labor market on Friday morning.

☆ Continued rate hikes can help lock in a disinflationary trend this year: Fed's Bullard
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailContinued rate hikes can help lock in a disinflationary trend this year: Fed's BullardSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard addressed a business group in Jackson, Tennessee, on Thursday. CNBC’s Steve Liesman has the details.

☆ Dallas, Las Vegas, and these 13 other cities are the best markets for homebuyers as prices continue to decline in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Here are the 15 most attractive markets for homebuyers in 2023, according to Knock. US home prices are widely expected to fall in 2023 as the housing market's historic boom fades. Mortgage rates have fallen significantly in recent months but remain far higher than they were during the housing market's glory days. "Home shoppers will not see significant price declines in a majority of the 100 largest housing markets," Knock's report read. Below are the 15 best markets for homebuyers in 2023, according to Knock, along with the median price, expected changes in sale prices and growth, months of available supply, and expected sale price-to-list price ratio.

☆ Airlines remain bullish on travel demand despite mounting economic worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rajesh Kumar Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CHICAGO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. airlines posting strong financial results remain upbeat about travel demand, even as economists and analysts say the risk of an economic recession has gone up. If anything, they say, the relationship between passenger revenue and broader economy is returning to pre-pandemic trend. United estimates domestic passenger revenue used to account for about 0.5% of the country's GDP. It expects the trend to be restored this year, resulting in 15% higher revenue for the industry this year. "Demand remains strong, pricing is likely to remain favorable due to industry capacity constraints," said Cowen analyst Helane Becker.

☆ Fed's Bullard says 2023 may be year inflation surge wilts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 5 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard said Thursday the new year could finally bring some welcome relief on the inflation front. “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said. That saw the central bank take its overnight short-term rate target from near zero levels in March to the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. Officials have said wherever they stop with rates they are likely to stay for a while as they ensure inflation pressures are easing. Bullard also said the job market remains “strong.”Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Biden says U.S. economy headed to 'new plateau,' amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While investors, many economists and some CEOs have warned recently that a U.S. recession is due in 2023, the Biden administration considers it unlikely, in part because of federal spending. "We're the only country in the world who's come out of the crisis stronger than we went in." read moreSt. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard said Thursday that the risk of a U.S. recession has fallen in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve predicts 0.5% growth in 2023, for example. Biden's upbeat comments came as Wall Street's main indexes closed more than 1% lower, with evidence of a tight labor market eating away at any hopes investors had that the Federal Reserve could soon pause its rate hike cycle.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things Thursday: Strong jobs, Amazon cuts staff
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The life sciences and medical diagnostics company is doing so much to help its share price that I find this downgrade curious. Piper Sandler cuts price target on Cyberark Software (CYBR) to $160 per share from $190, suggesting more room to drop. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator. The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

☆ Boardrooms will rediscover the value of gray hair
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

To firms keen to avoid repeating past mistakes, the graying of the Western workforce may not be a bad thing in 2023. The share of European over-55s in jobs grew to 20% in 2019, from 12% in 2014, according to official data. The typical incoming CEO is 55, a decade older than the average in 2005, according to Crist Kolder Associates. Money markets are pricing in U.S. rates of 5% by the summer. Financial markets will always love the next new thing, but for the time being, gray is good.

☆ Premarket stocks: Powell revives hopes of a Fed pivot. That's a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made investors very happy on Wednesday. Powell’s admission that “the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain” means that rate hikes could be here for a while. This isn’t the first time investors rushed into markets on the belief that there would be a Fed pivot. Powell said on Wednesday that there is still a chance the economy avoids recession but the odds are slim. But the labor market still remains historically tight despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool demand and bring down inflation.

CNN Business —The Federal Reserve could pull back on the pace of its aggressive rate hikes as soon as December, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at an economic forum. The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed Wednesday that there were almost 1.7 jobs available for every job seeker in October. The decline in job openings is a positive development, Powell said Wednesday. And the rate hikes could be doing more harm than good. Since rate hikes can take months, even years, to flow through the economy, the Fed now appears to be adopting a “lower and slower” model of smaller rate hikes over a longer period.

☆ Premarket stocks: Fed officials crushed investors' hopes this week
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But messaging from Fed officials this week has brought Wall Street back down to earth. Tech layoffs don’t mean impending recessionA series of high-profile layoffs have rattled Big Tech this month. The series of high-profile layoff announcements prompted fears that the labor market was weakening and that a recession could be around the corner. Those fears aren’t unwarranted: The Federal Reserve is actively working to slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions to rebalance the white-hot labor market. “The main problem in the labor market is still that labor demand is too strong, not too weak,” they concluded.

☆ Insana: The ‘7% solution’ on interest rates could come back to haunt the Federal Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A trader watches as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard suggested on Thursday that the central bank might have to raise short-term interest rates as high as 7% to ensure that inflation goes away. Once again, Bullard and other Fed officials say that the central bank cannot repeat the policy errors of the 1970s. Raising rates by up to three full percentage points from the Fed's current target range of 3.75% to 4% would ensure a very deep recession. That's the case whether its headline or core consumer prices or other measures of inflation more closely watched by the Fed.

☆ Oil falls on easing geopolitical tensions, China demand outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Thankfully, those fears have abated and the situation de-escalated, which has seen oil gains unwound," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Brent crude fell $2.13 to $90.73 a barrel, a 2.3% loss, by 10:58 a.m. China reported rising daily COVID-19 infections and Chinese refiners have asked to reduce Saudi crude volume in December, Reuters has reported, while also slowing Russian crude purchases. "Struggling Chinese consumption is embodied in sinking domestic need for both Russian and Saudi crude oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Oil gained some support from official figures that U.S. crude stocks fell by a bigger than expected 5 million barrels in the most recent week.

Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed the need to continue raising rates, albeit at a slower pace. "The Fed is trying to make sure the market doesn't get too ahead of itself," said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. "They're trying to walk this rhetorical tightrope where in between meetings and big data points, they're reminding the market that they're still tightening." Traders are now pricing in 89% odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Fed in December and see terminal rate at around 5% in June 2023. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 101 new lows.

The greenback has been falling in recent weeks as inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary implied that it could soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. "We had a short covering euro rally and dollar sell off that's probably run its course now. The euro was last down 0.56% against the dollar at $1.0337 after falling as much as 0.86% earlier in the session. It was last down 0.95% at $1.18 after earlier falling as much as 1.25% in a move that one analyst said was largely driven by sentiment about the dollar. The greenback was last up 0.68% against the Japanese yen on Thursday to 140.4950 after falling earlier in the day.

Softer-than-expected inflation data in recent days had boosted expectations of smaller interest rate increases, but strong retail sales figures on Wednesday stoked fears that the Fed could keep tightening the monetary policy further. Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed on the need to continue raising interest rates, though at a slower pace. Wall Street closed the previous session lower as a grim outlook from Target Corp (TGT.N) sparked concerns about retailers heading into the crucial holiday season. ET, Dow e-minis were down 384 points, or 1.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 52.5 points, or 1.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 177.5 points, or 1.51%. U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd fell 2.1% after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted a smaller-than-expected rise in quarterly revenue.

Bullard said that despite aggressive actions by the Fed this year the current target policy rate of between 3.75% and 4% remains below the "sufficiently restrictive" level the Fed feels is needed to lower inflation to its 2% target. In a graphic presented for discussion at an economic event in Louisville, Bullard showed that using even "dovish" assumptions, a basic monetary policy rule would require rates to rise to at least around 5%, while stricter assumptions would recommend rates above 7%. That entire range could fall if inflation declines more rapidly than expected, Bullard said, noting that "market expectations are for declining inflation in 2023." However "caution is warranted," he said, since the investors and Fed officials "have been predicting declining inflation just around the corner for the past 18 months." "While the policy rate has increased substantially this year, it has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive, according to this analysis, even with the generous assumptions,” Bullard said.

☆ What Cramer is watching Thursday — rates may go much higher, promising tech, and mixed retail
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Piper also likes Diamondback and Marathon , neutral on Club holding Coterra Energy (CTRA) and APA , formerly known at Apache. Multiple price target increases for Club holding TJX Companies (TJX). Canaccord starts Club holding Estee Lauder (EL) with a hold. Lowe's (LOW) price target raised to $253 per share from $248 at Piper, which liked the quarter. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Dow futures fall slightly as investors assess the prospect of higher interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked lower Thursday night as investors continued evaluating earnings reports and tougher language from Federal Reserve speakers. The S&P 500's futures traded near flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.1%. But investors also had to consider comments from more than half a dozen Fed speakers at events across the country. Notably, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday that "the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive." That move alarmed investors who are worried that rising rates could trigger a recession.

☆ US stocks slump as Fed officials see more rate hikes in the pipeline to tame inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks fell Thursday as central bank officials dampened hopes for a so-called Fed pivot. Fed regional presidents James Bullard and Esther George see more rate hikes in store to cool inflation. Separately, Kansas City Fed President Esther George told The Wall Street Journal it may not be possible to reduce such high levels of inflation without the economy shifting into a recession. She also said expectations for the Fed to stop raising rates were premature as she pointed to strong price pressures in labor-intensive service sectors. Americans are reportedly paying the biggest-ever premium for diesel at the pump after the fuel rose in price by 50%.

☆ US stocks fall as comments from Fed officials dash hopes for a pivot on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed officials Esther George and James Bullard separately indicated the Fed is still on course for more rate hikes. Stocks came under pressure with Treasury yields rising. Equities lost ground as Treasury yields scaled higher. The Fed in 2022 has jacked up the fed funds rate from 0% to a range of 3.75%-4%, including four consecutive, hefty hikes of 75 basis points. Along with viewpoints voiced by Fed officials, investors weighed quarterly results and economic data.

☆ Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor, Bullard insisted that the moves the Fed has made so far are insufficient. "Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023," he said. "To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further," he added in the presentation. The Fed has approved four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate increases, and markets widely expect the December FOMC meeting to yield a 0.5 percentage point move. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Wednesday that she expects more rate increases and that a "pause is off the table" even with a lower level of rate increases.

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