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The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.
Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S
Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."
Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta
Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan
"Monetary policy is in a good place for policymakers to assess incoming information on the economy and financial conditions," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday. The Fed has kept its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July, and after the last meeting over Oct. 31-Nov. 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is not yet confident policy is restrictive enough. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a policy hawk like Mester, on Tuesday delivered a similar assessment. Indeed, Waller said, if the inflation decline continues for several more months, rate cuts could be in order to keep policy from becoming overly tight. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who has for months said the Fed policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% is high enough, said Wednesday he feels data backing that view is getting clearer.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Loretta Mester, Mester, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, I'm, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Raphael Bostic, we’ve, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Deepa Babington Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, Dallas Fed, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: El Progreso, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,
Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, speaks during an interview in Manhattan, New York, U.S., August 15, 2017. The central bank's rate policy will need to be "nimble" and "I believe the current level of the (federal) funds rate positions us well to do that." Mester, who will retire from the regional Fed bank next June, spoke two weeks ahead of the Fed's Dec. 12-13 policy meeting. That gathering is widely expected to result in no change in the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate range. She noted that Fed rate hikes have tightened financial conditions and moderated demand at a time when supply chains have been healing.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Shannon Stapleton, Mester, Mester's, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, REUTERS, Cleveland Federal, Fed, Financial, FOMC, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Chicago
Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia
Speaking on CNBC, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the U.S. central bank must be "patient and resolute, and I wouldn't take additional firming off the table." Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.4% in September, down from its 7.1% peak last summer, but above the central bank's target. And he expressed increased confidence that the Fed can meet its inflation goal without the kind of rise in unemployment seen in the U.S. central bank's prior battles with inflation. Speaking on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, one of the central bank's more hawkish policymakers, said she had not yet assessed whether she would continue to pencil in a further rate hike. Fresh economic and interest rate projections are due to be the released at the Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.
Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Susan Collins, Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Pete Schroeder, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, San Francisco Fed, CNBC, Boston, Deutsche Bank, Chicago Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S
In this article AAPLAMZNTSLABXWMTBABA.FKRX300 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. To that end, Mester doesn't see rate cuts on the horizon. Perhaps investors shouldn't be so sure about impending rate cuts too.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Doug McMillon, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Loretta Mester, isn't, Mester, Lisa Cook Organizations: BABA, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Walmart, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco
In this article 7201.T-JPVOW3-DEMETAGOOGL.FKRX300BABABABAWMTAMZN Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. To that end, Mester doesn't see rate cuts on the horizon. Perhaps investors shouldn't be so sure about impending rate cuts too.
Persons: VOW3, FKRX300 BABA BABA, Brendan Mcdermid, Doug McMillon, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Loretta Mester, isn't, Mester, Lisa Cook Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Walmart, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco
"We're making progress on inflation, discernible progress. "We're going to have to see much more evidence that inflation is on that timely path back to 2%. But we do have really good evidence that it has made progress and now it's just, is it continuing?" Following the reports, market pricing in the futures market completely eliminated the possibility that the Fed would be approving any additional interest rate hikes. Comparing the Fed's position to navigating a ship, Mester said, "We're at the crow's nest.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, CNBC's Steve Liesman, hasn't Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Labor Department Locations: midyear
Morning Bid: Consumers in focus as Walmart reports
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. Thursday's corporate calendar features a host of earnings reports that will shine further light on the health of the global consumer, as U.S. retailers Walmart (WMT.N), Bath & Body Works and Macy's (M.N) report earnings. Expectations for Walmart ride high after peer Target (TGT.N) surged by almost a fifth on Wednesday in the wake of its consensus-beating holiday sales forecast and upbeat view of its supply chain. Figures on Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices fell at their fastest pace since April 2020, and UK consumer inflation undershot all forecasts. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile in Asia, Japan's exports are struggling due to slumping China-bound shipments of chips and steel.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Eddie Wu, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, What's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, England's Randall Kroszner, ECB's Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Fed's Loretta Mester, John Williams, Michael Barr, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Vidya, Walmart, Body, Insider Intelligence, U.S, Bank, Events, Applied Materials, Siemens, SQM, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, San Francisco, Bath, France
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Monetary policy is in a good placeCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Steve Liesman Organizations: Cleveland, Federal Reserve
"Under plausible assumptions the size of the balance sheet could decline considerably further before reserves reach the level consistent with the ample reserves operating framework," Jefferson wrote in response to a series of questions from Scott about the roughly $8 trillion balance sheet. The senator also wrote letters to Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Adriana Kugler at the same time. Fed officials who have spoken on the matter have said the balance sheet can be reduced for an extended period. Speaking after the central bank's Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was "not considering changing the pace of balance sheet runoff. Many market participants are eyeing next year or maybe 2025 as a potential time to end the drawdown of the balance sheet.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Rick Scott, Scott, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Cook, Kugler, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, General, Michael S, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Republican U.S, Fed, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Jefferson
Morning Bid: Ebbing oil sustains economic glow
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. That drop, which takes annual producer price inflation as low as 1.3%, was driven largely by falling gasoline prices. And that meets news that China's oil refinery throughput fell back in October as industrial fuel demand weakened. The overall energy and inflation picture is helping buoy consumption and stokes the 'soft landing' narrative investors are betting on. The picture in overseas markets, where the economic picture is cloudier, was more mixed.
Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, stokes, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, Biden, Washington, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Andrea Enria, Dave Ramsden, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Walmart, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City Fed, Applied, Ross Stores, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, New York Federal Reserve, Insider Intelligence, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China . U.S, Target, San Francisco, Taiwan, China, Kansas, Treasuries, Lisa Cook , New, Franciso, Reuters Graphics China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: We're not going to react to just one data pointLoretta Mester, Cleveland Fed president, and CNBC’s Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest labor market data, the likelihood of a soft landing, and more.
Persons: Loretta Mester, We're, Steve Liesman Organizations: Cleveland, Cleveland Fed
S&P 500 futures were little changed Wednesday night as investors looked to extend November's hot streak. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed about 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Tuesday's session brought the biggest gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since April. With November about halfway through, the S&P 500 is up more than 7% for the month, while the Dow has advanced nearly 6%. That's because the recent inflation data can imply the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
Persons: Dow, Barbara Doran, Doran, Loretta Mester, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Reserve, Dow, BD8 Capital Partners, Cleveland, New York, Walmart Locations: billings, Macy's
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. "This is what the Fed was looking for, slowing inflation, slowing labor market and the economy's holding up at the same time." Following the data, traders erased bets the Fed will raise borrowing costs any further and piled into bets on rate cuts starting by May. U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the two-year yield , which best reflects short-term interest rate expectations, sliding to two-week lows. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 13.89-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 5.44-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Thomas Hayes, Russell, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Johnson, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Ankika Biswas, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Reuters, May, U.S, Treasury, Nvidia, Banking Committee, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, U.S . House, Dow Jones, Inc, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, United States, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Murky US inflation picture
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
According to consensus forecasts at least, U.S. headline inflation is expected to have retreated sharply again in October back toward midyear lows around 3.3%. But underlying 'core' inflation is expected to stay stickier at an unchanged annual rate of 4.1% last month and still more than twice the Fed's target. But the Fed may want to hang tough long enough into a slowing economy to ensure that inflation is squeezed back to its 2% goal. And perhaps the negative tilt on October core inflation going into today's release leaves more room for a positive surprise. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next despite the weakening economic picture.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Biden, Xi, Shunichi Suzuki, Philip Jefferson, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Huw Pill, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, New, Bank of America's, Treasury, International Energy Agency, U.S, Economic Cooperation, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's Finance, Home, Federal, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, California, San Francisco, Asia, China, Japan, Teck, United States
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
New York CNN —The US presidential election is less than a year away. Wall Street has a laundry list of uncertainties that it worries could threaten the current stock rally, including the upcoming presidential election. But history shows that stocks typically gain during the fourth year of presidential terms. The S&P 500 has gained 6.2% on average during the fourth year of presidential terms since 1932, according to Yardeni Research. That’s below the 13.5% gain the index has averaged during the third year of presidential terms since 1931.
Persons: , There’s, Darrell Crate, , Goldman Sachs, Joe Abbott, Abbott, Loretta Mester, Bryan Mena, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hawkish, Mester, Heidi Gartland, , ” Gartland, Read, Niron, Peter Valdes, Niron Magnetics, Jonathan Rowntree Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, The New York Fed, Management, Investors, Research, Yardeni Research, , CNN, Cleveland Fed, Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Regional, Bank, General Motors, China General Motors Locations: New York, East, Russia, Ukraine, Wisconsin, China, Minnesota
The Cleveland Federal Reserve launched a search Wednesday for its new leader, after current President Loretta Mester retires in mid-2024. A committee comprised of Cleveland Fed board members will conduct the search. "President Mester's strong leadership over the past decade has positioned the Cleveland Fed as an important resource to the community and the nation," Gartland said. "We are committed to finding a new leader who can ensure the Bank continues to meet the high standard that President Mester has set." Whomever leads the Cleveland Fed will get a vote in 2024 on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Heidi Gartland, Mester's, Gartland, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Bank, Market
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Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he sees no reason to change the current drawdown of the central bank's still-massive balance sheet. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "is not considering changing the pace of balance sheet runoff. While shrinking Fed holdings may have a small impact on real world borrowing costs, "I think it’s hard to make a case that reserves are even close to scarce at this point." Reuters GraphicsFed officials have said repeatedly that the balance sheet drawdown effort complements rate rises and runs in the background.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, it's, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics Fed, Reuters Graphics, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
Inflows have dropped sharply in recent months to around $1 trillion in the face of the Fed's aggressive policy tightening underway since last year. Fed officials, for their part, have said repeatedly they’ve got a lot of room to cut their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, a process that complements Fed rate increases. So far, reverse repos have “come down very smoothly,” Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed said earlier this month. In his view, if reverse repos stopped contracting that could become a meaningful sign liquidity levels were getting tight enough for the Fed to change gears. "We still have a very large balance sheet" so the balance sheet cuts can likely continue over the next year and half to two years, she said, adding when it comes to getting to the finish line, "it's going to take a while."
Persons: they’ve, ” Lorie Logan, Logan, “ I’ve, Wells Fargo, Roberto Perli, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Crandall reckons, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Dallas Fed, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Wells
[1/3] A woman passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The New York Fed foray into the topic comes as the central bank has retreated from the climate issue after facing heat from some members of Congress. Meanwhile, the central bank formally joined in late 2020 with other major central banks in efforts to shore up the financial system against climate-related disruptions. Some in Congress have seen the Fed’s climate work as a sign of a politicized central bank. That said, the Fed has not ruled out thinking about how climate disruptions affect the full measure of the economy.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, there's, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, John Williams, ” Williams, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, , New York Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Queens College, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Puerto Rico, Congress
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