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Metal has been arriving almost daily in response to a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve. LME and ShFE tin stocksLME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESSThe tightness on the LME tin contract does not seem to have reflected any shortage of tin in the physical market. The LME squeeze appears to have been more a clash of positioning in what can at times be a relatively illiquid market. Fund positioning on the LME tin contractSUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMSWhile tin supply has recovered from early-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new threat is now looming. From the start of next month, all tin mining will be suspended in the Wa region of Myanmar.

Persons: It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Fastmarkets, Fund, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association, Yinman, Yunnan Tin Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Italian, Genoa, Trieste, Spanish, Bilbao, Baltimore, U.S, Midwest, COVID, Indonesia, Peru, Wa, Guangxi, Mongolia, Yunnan, China

☆ Stocks rise, dollar retreats ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday to see if price pressures are continuing to moderate, which could provide clues on the interest rate outlook. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3%, lifted by gains in European shares, as the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.6% and U.S. stock index futures , rose 0.2-0.4%, suggesting a modest rise at the opening bell. Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index to have risen by 3.1% in June, after May's 4% increase. "There is a massive eye on tomorrow's inflation data - it comes to late in the day for the July meeting. Analysts expect earnings to have shrunk 6.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Persons: Toby Melville, Craig Erlam, Jim Reid, Wells, Julie Zhu, Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S ., Treasury, Deutsche Bank, London Metal Exchange, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, U.S, Brent, Wall, Hong Kong

The strong ramp-up in sales for EVs, led by growth in China, means copper demand will continue to grow for the remainder of the decade, but innovation in EVs has emerged as a limiting factor, according to two recent forecasts. In a report this week, Goldman Sachs said EVs accounted for two-thirds of the global demand growth in copper last year. "Some of the projections out there have been very aggressive in terms of potential green energy demand (for copper)." Goldman Sachs called innovation in batteries and the potential shift to higher voltage systems like Tesla's "the main threat to copper's EV demand leverage." It expects copper demand for EVs to be 1 million metric tons this year and 2.8 million by 2030.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Robert Edwards, Tesla, Elon Musk, CRU's Edwards, Mai Nguyen, Kevin Krolicki, Emelia Sithole Organizations: EVs, CRU Group, London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: HANOI, China, EVs, Hanoi, Singapore

☆ Goldman Sachs says rising EV usage to power higher copper demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said rising usage of electric vehicles (EV) was a "key pillar of copper's bullish story", forecasting copper demand from the sector to amount to 1 million tonnes (mt) this year, rising to 1.5 mt in 2025. Last year, EV production accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in global copper demand, with EVs likely accounting for about 27% of additional copper consumption over the next decade, the bank said. Goldman said its analysts were optimistic about EVs, anticipating "strong sales in China, driven by lower prices and a high demand for EVs that has been building up over the rest of 2023." Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) lost 7.5% in the second quarter of 2023 due to a slow recovery in demand in China and concerns over global economic growth. However, copper usage in EVs could fall in the longer term, with the amount of copper used per EV likely falling to 65 kg per unit by 2030, compared with 73 kg in 2022, the bank said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Anushree Ashish Mukherjee, David Holmes Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: EVs, China, Bengaluru

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA

☆ Over half a million silver coins just vanished – now the metals dealer behind the 'fraudulent' scheme must pay $146 million
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A precious metals dealer has been asked to pay up $146 million in damages after over half a million silver coins went missing. Robert Higgins ran a "fraudulent and deceptive scheme" linked to the purchase and sale of precious metals, the CFTC said. From 2014 to 2022, Higgins led a 'fraudulent silver leasing program' that took deposits from almost 200 customers. Higgins ran a "fraudulent and deceptive scheme", and was ordered to pay $113 million to clients and $33 million in penalties, according to the CFTC. The precious metals industry has seen a series of scams in recent times.

Persons: Robert Higgins, Higgins, —, Prateek Gupta Organizations: Service, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Asset, Depository Company, US Treasury, London Metal Exchange Locations: Delaware, Rotterdam, Singapore

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - There's a renewed scramble for copper sitting in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Headline LME copper stocks have slid from 100,100 tonnes to 77,050 over the last three weeks despite almost 30,000 tonnes of arrivals. The drain on LME copper stocks is puzzling given weakening manufacturing activity in both Europe and the United States. It wouldn't be the first time that the LME stocks signal has been refracted, and the lower the stocks, the easier it is to bend the light. The Shanghai exchange has experienced tightness across the front part of the curve since March, with time-spreads now also the widest since November.

Persons: Boliden's, Copper, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, LME, U.S ., CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Futures, ShFE's, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, London, ShFE, INE, Shanghai, China, Asia

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Newmont (NEM.N) has declared force majeure on deliveries of some metal products from its Peñasquito mine in Mexico, the U.S.-listed miner told Reuters, citing strike action as a constraint on output. Peñasquito is a major producer of zinc and lead, as well as gold. In a February outlook, Newmont said Peñasquito was expected to produce between 190,510 and 208,654420 metric tons of zinc this year and 77,111 and 86,183 tons of lead. Companies declare force majeure when unexpected circumstances prevent them from meeting contract obligations. "Due to interruptions in production caused by the union strike at Newmont's Peñasquito mine in Mexico, force majeure has been declared with certain customers for some of the mine's products," Newmont said in an emailed statement.

Persons: Newmont, Peñasquito, majeure, Boliden, Pratima Desai, Clara Denina, Kirsten Donovan, Jane Merriman Organizations: Companies, National Union of Mine, Metal Workers, London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: Mexico, U.S, Mexican Republic, Ireland, Sweden

A net 1,400 lots of short positions were covered by the time the market was suspended at 08:15. Xiang Guangda, the charismatic head of China's Tsingshan Holding Group, has attracted much media attention for being the big nickel short. The existence of at least once big nickel short wasn't exactly a secret in the market. LME nickel crisis had turned into potential LME clearing house crisis with Chamberlain having to juggle both parts of the meltdown while also being a nickel market specialist. The handful that remained, as one participant later recalled, knew nothing whatsoever about what was going on in the nickel market so decided to call everyone else back into the room.

Persons: Elliott, Street, Matthew Chamberlain, Chamberlain, Jane Street, Oliver Wyman's, Xiang Guangda, wasn't, Oliver Wyman, John Maynard Keynes, Xiang, doesn't, David Evans Organizations: London, Royal, of Justice, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Elliott Associates, Jane, Global, Tsingshan Holding, SEE, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine

☆ Exclusive: Gerald Group's 'tin concentrate' bought in Brazil revealed to be sand
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The trader supplies tin concentrate to the Thai smelter Thaisarco, which does not price or pay for the material until after it has arrived and been authenticated. Fifty containers would hold 1,250 metric tonnes of tin concentrate and Brazilian concentrate would yield 875 tonnes of metal. In addition to selling tin to Thaisarco, Gerald typically sends tin concentrate to Malaysia Smelting Corp (MSCB.KL) to turn into metal in a process known as tolling. Tin concentrate from Brazil typically contains about 70% metal. With regional variations, tin concentrate also contains byproducts or impurities such as iron, antimony, bismuth, lead and silver.

Persons: Gerald Group, Gerald, Andrew Davies, Pratima Desai, Veronica Brown, Barbara Lewis, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, London Metal Exchange, Malaysia Smelting Corp, Geological Survey, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Asia, London, Thaisarco

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - The closure of the Tara zinc mine in Ireland tells you how far the price of the galvanising metal has fallen over the last year. The closure is unlikely to alleviate the immediate over-supply of zinc concentrates but it is a sharp reminder for the market that the zinc price is teetering on the edge of the mining production cost curve. LME zinc price, stocks and spreadsTARA'S PERFECT STORMTara Mines, based in County Meath, is "currently cash flow negative due to a combination of factors including operational challenges, a decline in the price of zinc, high energy prices and general cost inflation", Boliden said. "The zinc market seems to be very volatile at the moment," Nystrom said, which is an understatement given the scale of the price collapse over the last 15 months. But Tara's suspension is a wake-up call that after a year of worrying about smelters, zinc traders need to start worrying about zinc mines as well.

Persons: Tara, Boliden, Mines, Gunnar Nystrom, Ireland's, " Nystrom, Morgan Stanley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Ireland's RTE, Shanghai Metal Markets, Fastmarkets, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ireland, County Meath, Europe, China, Shanghai, London

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin has been treading water in a $23,700-26,800 range since the start of May. Although the demand outlook remains subdued, tin supply is facing two big threats, one from Myanmar and one from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Global tin supply, meanwhile, is now improving after an early-year drop in Indonesia shipments. Refined tin production fell year-on-year in May and Guangxi China Tin Group, the world's sixth-largest tin producer, has just announced a 40-50 day maintenance break from the end of this month, according to the ITA. Indonesia currently only has enough downstream capacity to absorb 5% of its domestic tin production, meaning that any restrictions will likely come in phases.

Persons: Minsur, International Tin Association . Tin, It's, David Evans Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Global, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Global Semiconductor, HIT, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Local, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association ., ITA, Guangxi China Tin Group, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midwest, London, imploding, Myanmar, Indonesia, Peruvian, United States, Europe MYANMAR, Wa, China, Wa State, Guangxi China, INDONESIA

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is once again looking to shine more light on what lies in the shadows of its warehousing system. The exchange's daily stocks reports offer a rare hard data point in a murky statistical landscape for metal traders. LME stocks are flatlining but is this down to the market or changed market behaviour? Traders will game any system they come up against but the current LME stocks reporting regime makes it too easy. Restoring trust in exchange stocks reporting is a key step in winning back the broader confidence of the market.

Persons: it's, Mark Potter Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Shanghai Futures, Traders, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Shanghai

Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.

☆ Many 'big users' of nickel are here in Asia, says London Metal Exchange
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMany 'big users' of nickel are here in Asia, says London Metal ExchangeMatthew Chamberlain of the exchange says there's a "real sense of looking forward" in Asia and optimism about rebuilding the market.

Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.

LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - The global copper market is facing another year of supply deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The Group's April forecast is for a supply shortfall of 114,000 tonnes this year after a 431,000-tonne deficit in 2022. The calculation could easily be thrown off, since it is based on changes in visible inventory combined with China's net imports of refined metal. Last year's elevated net imports served to inflate China's apparent usage. A 16.4% slump in net imports over the first quarter of this year will do the reverse.

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut this year as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. The INSG expects only "mild growth" in the stainless sector this year. Taking up the slack from a weak stainless sector is demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. This changes the nature of this particular nickel surplus. LME stocks of Class I nickel continue to slide even as surplus builds in other parts of the supply chain.

☆ Facing fallout from nickel crisis, LME appoints 'interim' chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Friday it had appointed John Williamson, currently a non-executive director, as interim chairman from the end of April, when current Chair Gay Huey Evans steps down. Williamson's appointment comes as the world's largest and oldest metals forum grapples with slumping nickel volumes after the chaos in March 2022 when the LME suspended nickel trading for more than a week. Metal industry sources are surprised that Williamson's appointment is on an interim basis, which they say creates uncertainty during a tumultuous time. The LME declined to comment on why the appointment was on an interim basis. A lawsuit brought by Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading against the LME for cancelling nickel trades will be heard in a London court on June 20-22.

China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.

☆ Copper Shortage Threatens Green Transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

In 2021, refined copper demand stood at 25.3 million tons, according to the International Copper Study Group. Mined output globally in 2022 was 21.8 million tons according to the International Copper Study Group, rising only 1 million tons over the previous three years. According to Congo’s Ministry of Mines, copper metal exports totaled 2.3 million metric tons in 2022, up from 1.8 million metric tons in 2021, less than half of Chile’s output. According to analysts it is more of a “when” not an “if” copper demand is likely to surge. Changes in technology should ease some copper demand pressures.

But it serves to highlight the importance of one of the most inaccessible parts of southeast Asia to the global tin supply chain. Imports from Myanmar grew from 30,000 tonnes in 2012 to 89,000 tonnes in 2013 and mushroomed to almost 500,000 tonnes in 2016. CHINESE DEPENDENCEThe Myanmar tin boom occurred at the right time for China's tin smelters, many of which were struggling to bring on new mining capacity as Beijing steadily tightened environmental controls on the mining sector. However, the threat alone underscores the fragility of tin supply at a time when Indonesia, the largest exporter of the metal in refined form, is mulling an export ban to stimulate the build-out of downstream processing capacity. This is probably not going to be the last time tin gets spooked by unexpected news from Myanmar.

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A year on from the nickel crisis the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still struggling to regain trading momentum. Volumes dropped sharply after the controversial decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel trades. In this subdued metals trading landscape there are currently two unlikely star performers: London lead and Shanghai tin. The Shanghai nickel contract took a big collateral hit from the LME's crisis and volumes remain depressed, down by half year-on-year in the first quarter. ShFE volumes year-on-year change in Q1 2023LEAD GETS INDEX BOOSTERThe two metallic stand-outs in terms of first-quarter trading activity were LME lead and ShFE tin.

[1/2] A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike SegarApril 13 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has dropped or cut credit lines to a large number of Indian metals clients, sending them looking for new brokers, the head of Nanhua Financial UK told Reuters. "Loads of Indian clients have enquired because JP Morgan cancelled their accounts," said Nong Yan, chief executive of Nanhua Financial UK, the British arm of one of the biggest future brokers in China. Broker Marex Financial has also been picking up new clients as JP Morgan and other banks reduce their exposure to metals and commodities, its chief executive said. "It's not just JP Morgan, all of these banks are sharpening their focus.

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