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☆ Recession could literally start any quarter: Former NEC chief economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession could literally start any quarter: Former NEC chief economist Joe LavorgnaSMBC's Joe Lavorgna parses Powell's market talk at The Washington Economic Club today. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Bonawyn Eison, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.

☆ Markets may be taking the wrong read from January's shocking jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The resounding strength of January employment report does not change our view of the labor market. Significant imbalances remain in the labor market due to too much excess demand and limited labor market slack," added Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. That's because they see the jobs report gain of 517,000 as a potential impetus to push the Fed into more aggressive interest rate hikes. He thinks future months will show a slowing labor market that will force the Fed into halting its hikes. "From a data-dependency perspective, the strength of the labor market suggests there might be need to continue to raise interest rates."

☆ Some economists see a 'rolling recession' ahead. Here's what that means
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Termed "rolling recessions," the idea is that rather than contract broadly and all at once, the economy could see different sectors decline in succession, one after the other. I think we will see rolling recession in the future." Sonders is a proponent of the "rolling recession" theory and noted that stocks can perform well even in downturns. A traditional recession looms To be sure, there are detractors to the "rolling recession" theory. "Have we ever had a period where both housing and manufacturing were in recession at the same time and we didn't have a recession?"

☆ Debt ceiling clash could push Fed to cut rates, restart QE, says SMBC Nikko Securities America's LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDebt ceiling clash could push Fed to cut rates, restart QE, says SMBC Nikko Securities America's LaVorgnaSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe LaVorgna on whether hitting the debt limit will counter everything the Fed's trying to do. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Bonawyn Eison, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami.

The TGA is a liability on the Fed's balance sheet. This means that when the TGA goes down, reserves go up, effectively administering an injection of liquidity into the system. chartThis runs counter to the Fed's current stance of pursuing a tighter monetary policy, of which draining liquidity from the system via QT is a part. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, calculates that since the Fed's QT program got underway last May, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $406 billion and the TGA has dropped $422 billion. "Fed QT to date has been largely absorbed by lower TGA," he and his team wrote in a recent note.

☆ Top economist Joe Lavorgna on the biggest risk to the labor market
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop economist Joe Lavorgna on the biggest risk to the labor marketSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna on what tomorrow's report means for the market and the Fed. With CNBC's Sara Eison and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

☆ The Fed's path to a 'Goldilocks' economy just got a little more complicated
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesLittle effect from policy movesThe numbers would indicate that 3.75 percentage points worth of rate increases have so far had little impact on labor market conditions. Much of the Street analysis after the report was viewed through the prism of comments Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made Wednesday. Among them were supply chain issues, housing growth, and labor cost, particularly wages. "Wages are rising more than productivity, as labor supply continues to shrink. To restore labor demand and supply, monetary policy must become more restrictive and remain there for an extended period."

☆ Is the consumer really as strong as Black Friday sales suggest?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs the consumer really as strong as Black Friday sales suggest? Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko, on just how strong the consumer really is. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Dan Nathan, Karen Finerman, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.

☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.

☆ Four experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFour experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP dataAustan Goolsbee, former CEA chairman and Booth School of Business professor, Joe LaVorgna, former Trump White House economist and chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, Nancy Davis, chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management, and CNBC's Rick Santelli join 'Squawk Box' to react to the latest third-quarter GDP data.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't be fooled by a strong GDP report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.

☆ An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.

Updated projections from the Fed's Sept. 20-21 policy meeting show that rate-setters' outlook for the economy's equilibrium rate of interest rate over time remained 2.5%. Bearing in mind that the Fed's inflation target is 2.0%, this suggests that the real rate of interest - r-star (r*), the nebulous, inflation-adjusted interest rate that neither fuels nor curbs growth - is also unchanged at 0.5%. The fact it didn't suggests the Fed still sees sky-high inflation as ultimately 'transitory', albeit as a result of its punishing interest rate rises and more prolonged than it had previously anticipated. chartNEBULOUS RATEThe Fed's policy target rate is now 3.00%-3.25%, the highest since 2008, and the Fed's latest projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%. Steven Englander, head of FX strategy at Standard Chartered, suggests the neutral rate is perhaps 3.00%, maybe even higher.

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