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Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

☆ As lithium prices bounce, analysts love these stocks — giving one 155% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

After a tough few months, lithium — a battery metal crucial in electric vehicles — is back in the spotlight as prices start to rebound. By the end of last week, however, lithium prices had started to bounce back. "Lithium prices in China gained for the first time this year on signs demand growth may be finally gathering pace … [and] amid thinning inventories across the supply chain," the ANZ Research analysts added. Canadian miner Sigma Lithium stood out for getting the highest potential upside from analysts at 155%, and a buy rating from 75% of analysts. Stocks that received a 100% buy rating included American EV battery maker Microvast Holdings and Australian miner Piedmont Lithium .

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut this year as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. The INSG expects only "mild growth" in the stainless sector this year. Taking up the slack from a weak stainless sector is demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. This changes the nature of this particular nickel surplus. LME stocks of Class I nickel continue to slide even as surplus builds in other parts of the supply chain.

☆ Facing fallout from nickel crisis, LME appoints 'interim' chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Friday it had appointed John Williamson, currently a non-executive director, as interim chairman from the end of April, when current Chair Gay Huey Evans steps down. Williamson's appointment comes as the world's largest and oldest metals forum grapples with slumping nickel volumes after the chaos in March 2022 when the LME suspended nickel trading for more than a week. Metal industry sources are surprised that Williamson's appointment is on an interim basis, which they say creates uncertainty during a tumultuous time. The LME declined to comment on why the appointment was on an interim basis. A lawsuit brought by Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading against the LME for cancelling nickel trades will be heard in a London court on June 20-22.

China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A year on from the nickel crisis the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still struggling to regain trading momentum. Volumes dropped sharply after the controversial decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel trades. In this subdued metals trading landscape there are currently two unlikely star performers: London lead and Shanghai tin. The Shanghai nickel contract took a big collateral hit from the LME's crisis and volumes remain depressed, down by half year-on-year in the first quarter. ShFE volumes year-on-year change in Q1 2023LEAD GETS INDEX BOOSTERThe two metallic stand-outs in terms of first-quarter trading activity were LME lead and ShFE tin.

[1/2] A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike SegarApril 13 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has dropped or cut credit lines to a large number of Indian metals clients, sending them looking for new brokers, the head of Nanhua Financial UK told Reuters. "Loads of Indian clients have enquired because JP Morgan cancelled their accounts," said Nong Yan, chief executive of Nanhua Financial UK, the British arm of one of the biggest future brokers in China. Broker Marex Financial has also been picking up new clients as JP Morgan and other banks reduce their exposure to metals and commodities, its chief executive said. "It's not just JP Morgan, all of these banks are sharpening their focus.

☆ JPMorgan scales down metals business - Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike SegarApril 13 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has stopped working with dozens of base metals clients and slashed bonuses of its bankers after last year's nickel crisis, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. JPMorgan's metals business has been under strict internal scrutiny due to the bank's role in the upheaval last year, when the London Metal Exchange (LME) was forced to suspend nickel trading after the metal's prices doubled. JPMorgan has cut numerous base metals clients in Asia, particularly stopping business with privately owned Chinese companies, according to the Bloomberg report. The bank is continuing to work only with a few large, long-standing clients in the region, the report added.

LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The zinc market was defined by smelter woes last year with global refined metal production dropping by 4.1% relative to 2021, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). But the smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. A sharp rise in the annual benchmark smelter processing fee should incentivise a turnaround in metal production. Annual "benchmark" zinc smelter processing feesOUT-OF-SYNCH SUPPLY CHAINThis year's benchmark treatment charge, the fee a smelter earns for converting mined concentrates into metal, has been set at $274 per tonne, up from $230 in 2022 and $159 in 2021. Global mined and refined zinc production annual changeSMELTER RECOVERY?

☆ Factbox: LME's measures to revive its nickel contract
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) on Thursday launched sweeping measures to revive its flagging nickel contract, including plans to cut waiting times and scrap fees for new brands of the metal that can be delivered against its contract. Below is the list of the initiative:- The LME plans to cut the waiting period to approve new nickel brands to three months of regular sample assaying while also waiving fees. - The LME will consider broadening its nickel contract to include coarse nickel powder, which can be converted and used in production of batteries, to increase the amount of nickel eligible for delivery. - The LME will work with the Qianhai Mercantile Exchange (QME) to develop a China-based spot market for nickel sulphate and nickel matte to support trade flows in Asia. - The LME plans to consider whether temporary measures, designed to address the current low levels of stocks - a backwardation limit and deferred delivery mechanism - should be made a permanent element of its rulebook.

Soldering demand from the electronics sector remains weak and investors in London and Shanghai continue to play the market from the short side. Surging purchases of electronic goods during lockdown were followed by sharply reduced spending as many Western consumers were hit by a cost-of-living squeeze. LME positioning reports show both investment funds and other financial players are currently net short of the London tin contract after the early-year rally went into reverse. LME tin price, stocks and cash-3s spreadSHANGHAI STOCKS UP, LONDON STOCKS DOWNReasons to be negative are more obvious in China. ShFE registered tin stocks have risen by 60% to 8,745 tonnes since the start of January.

☆ Warehouse workers around the world are being told to kick bags of nickel to make sure they're not filled with stones like JPMorgan recently discovered
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lakshmi Varanasi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

More than a million dollars of supposed nickel that belonged to JPMorgan was actually discovered as bags of stones. Since then, warehouse workers have been frantically checking bags of nickel by kicking the bags, Bloomberg reported. The mass inspection across the world's warehouses has also involved carefully weighing and scanning the bags, Bloomberg reported. While no other discrepancies have yet been discovered, Bloomberg said, the mystery of what happened to JPMorgan's bags remains unsolved. That's because there is a record of the material being weighed when it was first entered into the warehouse, Bloomberg said.

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

LONDON, March 21 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has discovered that some of its registered nickel is missing. Bags of stones shouldn't pass any inspection, whether at original load-in or during the annual audit of registered stock required by the LME's warehousing agreement. But it folds into the bigger issues around the exchange's governance and regulatory capacity after the blow-out of the nickel contract this time last year. BROKEN NICKELThe latest scandal will also intensify the question of whether the LME nickel contract is fulfilling the function of efficient price discovery forum. The nickel market was already looking for different pricing solutions before the March 8, 2022 suspension of LME nickel trading.

☆ The world's top metals trader is stuck in another nickel-shipment snafu after getting bags of stones from a Dutch warehouse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Trafigura discovered that it received bag of stones from a warehouse in Rotterdam instead of nickel. Last month, Trafigura disclosed an unrelated fraud on nickel shipments and faces a $577 million loss. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan Chase was the owner of bags of stones at the warehouse. Stratton Metals, a metal trader in Europe, also reportedly got bags of stones instead of nickel. Meanwhile, Trafigura has said there's no connection between the bags of stones and a separate snafu related to nickel cargoes.

☆ JPMorgan Chase thought it had $1.3 million worth of nickel stored in a warehouse. A closer examination revealed bags of stones.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Lakshmi Varanasi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase kept bags of stones in a Dutch warehouse thinking they were nickel, according to the WSJ. The owner of the bags is reportedly JPMorgan Chase, according to the Journal. Had they contained nickel, the bags would have been worth $1.3 million at current prices, representing 0.14% of nickel inventories, Bloomberg reported. JPMorgan Chase reportedly bought the bags years ago and remains an active player in big metals, the Journal said. JPMorgan Chase and the LME also did not immediately respond to Insider's request for a comment.

☆ LME finds 'irregularities' in several nickel bags at a warehouse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) on Friday postponed the resumption of nickel trading during Asian hours by a week to March 27 after it found nickel that failed to meet contract specifications at an LME warehouse. The LME said it had cancelled nine nickel warrants - an ownership document for metals placed in an LME-approved warehouse - at one warehouse facility, without naming it. The LME said the non-conformant warrants represent 0.14% of live nickel stock in its warehouses. The 146-year-old LME said the issues with nickel related to bagged nickel briquettes, which were found to not have the correct weight. The exchange said it had no reason to believe that any other LME facility was affected, but still called on all warehouse operators to undertake inspections of warranted nickel.

☆ Rio Tinto sees robust short term outlook for copper
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] A worker stands at a processing facility at Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in the Gobi Desert, Mongolia March 13, 2023. RentsendorjKHANBOGD, Mongolia, March 14 (Reuters) - The short-term outlook for copper is "pretty healthy," with global stockpiles trending down and mine disruptions having eroded supply from Latin America, Rio Tinto's head of copper Bold Baatar said on Tuesday. "Physical stocks of inventories of copper are at multi-year lows," he said, adding that copper demand in China was "relatively strong." "So at the moment, even in the short-term outlook, there's a pretty healthy demand picture," Baatar said. Reporting by B. Rentsendorj at Oyu Tolgoi and Mai Nguyen in Hanoi; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LME SPECIAL COMMITTEEA day earlier, on March 7, when LME benchmark nickel prices had soared 66% to nearly $50,000 a tonne, the LME's Special Committee had met, Jane Street's document said. The Committee, which has emergency powers, "concluded that the nickel market remained orderly, since there were geopolitical and macroeconomic reasons for the price increases". The next day, however, when nickel prices skyrocketed, the committee did not meet, the document said. Jane Street executed nickel trades from 1:37 a.m. on March 8 and was due total proceeds on those trades of $32.7 million, it said in the document. The LME is also facing fresh lawsuits from ten hedge funds and asset managers for cancelling nickel trades.

☆ Emirates Global Aluminium's 2022 profit surges to a record $2 bln
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DUBAI, March 7 (Reuters) - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), one of the world's largest aluminium producers, said on Tuesday its annual net profit for 2022 surged 34% to a record of 7.4 billion dirhams ($2.01 billion) on higher prices. The United Arab Emirates firm said average realised London Metal Exchange price for its metal was $2,715 per tonne. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a decade-high in March last year to $3,985 per tonne, before retreating to a low of $2,080 in September. "The immediate outlook for aluminium remains under some pressure due to its close correlation to the health of the global economy," Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, EGA's chief executive, was quoted as saying in a statement. ($1 = 3.6727 UAE dirham)Reporting by Hadeel Al Sayegh; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, in London, Britain September 27, 2018. The world's largest and oldest metals market annulled all nickel trades in March last year after chaotic price action and suspended trading for the first time since 1988. "It does look from the statement that the FCA is not going to look at the cancelled trades," said a regulation lawyer. The LME faces lawsuits from U.S. hedge fund Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading, which are suing the exchange for $456 million and $15.3 million, respectively, for the cancelled nickel trades. "Neither the Bank of England or the FCA have been clear about whether the LME should have cancelled the trades," said Harold de Boer, managing director at investment firm Transtrend.

The world's largest and oldest metals market annulled all nickel trades in March last year after chaotic price action and suspended trading for the first time since 1988. "That the FCA has decided to investigate means it considers there are circumstances suggesting that LME may have committed serious misconduct. ACTIVE STEPSThe 146-year-old LME said it had taken active steps to enhance nickel market liquidity and transparency, including 15% daily price limits and over the counter (OTC) position reporting for all physically delivered metals. The FCA and Bank of England began a review last April into the trading halt by the LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK). In January management consultants Oliver Wyman released an independent review of the nickel trading debacle and the exchange said it would set out an implementation plan for the report's recommendations by the end of March.

☆ UK regulator starts enforcement investigation into LME nickel trading halt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun an enforcement investigation into the London Metal Exchange's (LME) suspension of nickel trading in 2022, the watchdog said on Friday. The FCA's investigation will review the conduct, systems and controls that the LME had in place between Jan. 1 and March 8 last year. The LME suspended chaotic nickel trading on March 8, 2022, after prices doubled to a record above $100,000 a tonne in a few hours. Both the FCA and the Bank of England began a review into the trading halt last April.

Aluminium will be hardest hit with penal tariffs of 200% on imports of Russian metal, effective March 10, and imports of any third-country product containing Russian metal, effective April 10. This sort of "super contango" is the market's cry for financiers to pick up spare metal, particularly Russian metal. The Gwangyang deliveries are reported to be Russian aluminium being delivered by Glencore (GLEN.L), which has a long-term off-take deal with Rusal. The cash-to-threes time-spread will be a litmus test of financing appetite for Russian aluminium over the coming period. The only get-out for supplier nations is if they too impose minimum 200% tariffs on their own Russian aluminium imports.

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The global nickel market flipped from deficit to surplus over the course of 2022, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Indonesia's mined nickel production expanded by 48% to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, according to the INSG. However, as Indonesian production of Class II nickel rises, the Class I market shrinks. Around 70% of the physical nickel supply chain is now priced at a discount to the LME benchmark. LME nickel volumes slumped by 28% last year and January's activity was 60% lower than that of January 2022.

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