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☆ Take Five: Ready for that Santa rally?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/FRANC DISCUSSIONCredit Suisse executives may need to sit down for an honest chat about whether the bank's latest strategic plan is enough to rally investors. And with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meeting in coming weeks, the drama isn't over. For some, the notion of peak rates, peak inflation and China's reopening is reason enough for cheer. After months of pain inflicted by high inflation and aggressive rate increases, perhaps it's time to bring on the Santa rally. That wouldn't necessarily cut short a rally in Aussie dollar, which recently has been driven more by China's re-opening hopes and a retreating greenback than the RBA.

[1/3] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attend a news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, November 8, 2022. India is keen to boost trade in this way, said the source, as it tries to narrow a ballooning trade deficit with Russia. During the Moscow visit, Jaishankar said India needed to boost exports to Russia to balance bilateral trade that is now tilted towards Russia. The list of items from Russia, which runs to nearly 14 pages, includes car engine parts like pistons, oil pumps and ignition coils. India is hoping to boost its exports to nearly $10 billion over coming months with Russia's list of requests, according to the government source.

☆ Take Five: Everything to play for
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are hopeful the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes. The U.S. economy likely created 200,000 new jobs, a Reuters poll of economists forecasts found, in what would be the smallest gain since December 2020. Manufacturing indicators, mainly PMIs, due next week might attest to the weakness already seen across the economy. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the European Central Bank's 2% target. Indeed, the Fed may be getting ready to slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the ECB is not there yet.

☆ China leaves lending benchmarks unchanged for 3rd straight month in Nov
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month on Monday, as a weaker yuan and persistent capital outflows continued to limit Beijing's ability to ease monetary conditions to support the economy. As expected, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. The latest official data showed that overseas investors had sold their holdings of China's onshore bonds for a ninth straight month in October, the longest streak of outflows on record. "We think there's probability to lower the 5-year LPR in December due to the downturn in the property market," said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

☆ Take Five: Black Friday test
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/GOING SHOPPINGWith concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts. Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite. The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since. Reuters Graphics3/BLEAK OUT THEREThe International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago. Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days.

BEIJING/HONG KONG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - A slew of recent supportive measures will bring China's cash-strapped property developers much needed relief, but a full recovery of the sector will be hobbled by increasingly elusive buyers, say bankers, developers and analysts. "These policies will have little lasting effect and the property prices will not go up significantly," said Jack Yang, an engineer in Beijing, noting "future income" had become a key concern for homebuyers. Despite the recent liquidity-boosting measures, some bankers say developers continue to face credit risks given the uncertain outlook. According to UBS, Chinese banks have roughly 88 trillion yuan ($12.43 trillion) worth of exposure to the property sector. It estimates the property sector downturn will cost the banking system up to 1.4-1.5 trillion yuan in the next few years, mainly from potential losses in banks' unsecured property development loans, bonds, and non-standard assets.

☆ Take Five: A UK budget and trouble in crypto land
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The long-awaited UK fiscal plan is (almost) here and after the ructions unleashed by September's mini-budget, markets are paying close attention. UK markets have recouped most of the maxi-losses from the mini-budget, but the outlook is grim. Reuters Graphics2/ CRYPTO CHAOSThe crypto world has been thrown into fresh chaos by a meltdown at FTX. Big banks too are starting to pare back staffing levels. September data showed a measure of underlying retail sales rising thanks to strong wage gains and savings, even as the broader number came in flat.

☆ Analysis: Decade of central bank largesse haunts taxpayers as losses loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. The British government, which received 120 billion pounds in profits from the BoE since 2009, has already earmarked a transfer of 11 billion pounds for the central bank. It will contribute to losses of around 40 billion euros for euro zone central banks next year, according to Morgan Stanley. They have all warned of upcoming losses and the Dutch central bank openly said it risked needing a bailout, although finance minister Sigrid Kaag later cautioned this was "not yet on the table". By contrast, central banks with less cash and higher-yielding bonds in Italy, Spain and Greece were likely to fare better.

Investors will also look to ECB boss Christine Lagarde for guidance on how the ECB views the trade-off between recession risks and inflation, and when it might pause tightening. Economists say it's too early to call a peak in inflation but the chances of one arriving soon are growing. While an inflation peak may be close if there are no additional shocks from the war in Ukraine, the retreat will be slow initially, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle believes. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ Is the ECB giving away cash to banks and what will it do about it? Aggressive rate hikes from major central banks and a rout in British bonds have sparked concern about financial instability.

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