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☆ Rates won't fall back to pre-pandemic levels as geopolitical conflict and supply chain issues create problems for world economies, BofA exec says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's led the market to assume rates will fall to pre-pandemic lows, BofA's Bernard Mensah says. Yet, inflationary risks will likely keep rates elevated, Mensah says. Before the pandemic, in the decade following the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates remained at historical lows. Despite the Fed's apparent confidence that pricing pressures have eased, Mensah says a variety of inflationary risks will keep interest rates higher. Other analysts have also pointed to inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts.

Persons: That's, BofA's Bernard Mensah, Mensah, —, Bank of America's Bernard Mensah, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg Locations: US, China, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Mexico

☆ A Russian company is bartering chickpeas for Pakistani rice as sanctions stop payments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A Russian company will reportedly barter chickpeas and lentils for Pakistani tangerines and rice. One Russian company is planning to barter chickpeas and lentils for Pakistani tangerines, rice and potatoes, according to a Tuesday report from Russian state-run news service Tass. AdvertisementThe company will also trade 15,000 tons of chickpeas and 10,000 tons of lentils for 10,000 tons of potatoes and 15,000 tons of tangerines from the Pakistani company. AdvertisementRussia also passed a bill in July that will allow trade payments in crypto. Even Chinese banks, the smaller of which were a key processor for Russian payments, have stopped offering support in recent months.

Persons: —, Russia's, Bloomberg Organizations: Service, Tass, Femtee Trading Company, Financial Times, Bank of Locations: Russian, Russia, China, Ukraine, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Bank of Russia

☆ Buy US-listed casino and copper stocks to capitalize on China stimulus, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US-listed gaming and copper stocks have outperformed since China's stimulus blitz, Trivariate Research says. "We have concluded the intervention is incrementally bullish for US equities," CEO Adam Parker wrote. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementGaming and copper stocks listed in the US have outperformed since China unleashed a blitz of stimulus, and one research firm is recommending investors consider buying. Parker says historically, not all China stimulus measures have impacted US equities, especially when they coincide with other market moving events in the US.

Persons: Adam Parker, —, Trivariate Research's, Parker, Trivariate, that's Organizations: Trivariate, Sands, Service, CNBC, US, Wynn Resorts, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, CSI Locations: Freeport, McMoran, Las, China, Monday's, McMoRan, Macau

☆ Top Wall Street strategists say a strong jobs report will kick off a rotation into lower-quality stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A strong jobs report would boost low-quality stocks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts say. AdvertisementInvestor eyes are locked on the upcoming jobs report, due Friday. If it comes in strong, that will be great news for less-loved, lower-quality stocks, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say. Morgan Stanley's equity-strategy team is also keyed in on the jobs report. Wilson also highlighted the jobs report as a possible catalyst for rotation towards low quality in the stock market.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, —, David Kostin, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Service, firm's

☆ Chinese property stocks surge after 3 major cities relax restrictions on homebuying
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Chinese property stocks climbed 7% on Monday three major cities eased homebuying rules. China's property sector has struggled amid falling home prices, vacant supply, and debt. AdvertisementChinese property stocks got some positive news on Monday as three major cities announced easing of home-purchase restrictions. The surge comes after the cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou loosened homebuying restrictions, and after nation's central bank said it will allow refinancing of mortgages. The moves are part of China's new stimulus package meant to reinvigorate its slowing economy and weak property sector.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Stephen Cheung Organizations: Service, Mainland Properties, Longfor, Holdings, Hang Lung, CSI Locations: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing

☆ A record number of apartments are getting built this year. That's great news for real estate affordability.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-28 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US will see construction completed on a record number of apartments this year. The Sun Belt region in particular is seeing this dynamic play out. The US will see construction on a record number of apartments completed this year. They're now seeing rent prices fall, or at least remain stagnant as the rest of the nation lags behind. That means the market will eventually balance itself in the next few years, which will lead rent prices to once again rise, she said.

Persons: —, Laurie Goodman, Goodman, Austin, Chen Zhao, Zhao Organizations: Service, Housing Finance, Center, Urban Institute, Sun, metros, Dallas, Harvard Locations: Dallas, New York, Austin

☆ Luxury stocks have gotten a huge boost from China's stimulus this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

European luxury stocks have struggled this year amid weak Chinese demand. AdvertisementEuropean luxury stocks rallied sharply this week as a wave of Chinese stimulus measures spurred hopes of more spending. On Monday, the day before the stimulus measures were announced, Bank of America analysts cut their price objectives on luxury stocks by an average of around 20%. They also downgraded four luxury stocks to neutral, and another from neutral to underperform — leaving just three luxury stocks at buy ratings. Now, it seems investors are banking on the stimulus measures to bring luxury spending back to the country.

Persons: Cartier, —, Burberry, Hugo Boss Organizations: Hermes, Service, Bank of America Locations: China, EU, Japan

☆ The stock market's euphoria-driven record highs are at risk of a painful downturn, 'Black Swan' investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Spitznagel thinks they should focus instead on lagging drivers that could spur a sharp stock downturn. Advertisement"Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel thinks that the stock market's streak of record highs is distracting from a more jarring reality that could come by year-end. In a recent interview with Bloomberg TV, he said investors are currently enjoying a market that's in a "Goldilocks zone." "When the yield curve disinverts and then unverts, the clock starts ticking and that's when you enter black swan territory," Spitznagel told Bloomberg. He has warned of a stock market crash since January 2023, and back in July, he said the market's yearslong rally has become the "greatest bubble in human history," and its bursting would make for a recession.

Persons: Stocks, they've, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, That's, capitalizes Organizations: Service, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg, Universa Investments

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 notches fresh record on labor-market data and China stimulus pledge
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 notched a new record on Thursday amid encouraging labor-market data and China stimulus. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementUS stocks climbed on Thursday amid positive economic data and promises from China to roll out further stimulus measures. The S&P 500 notched a fresh record. Thursday's gains were also fueled by a pledge from Beijing to support China's economy with further stimulus measures, just days after the country unveiled a blitz of policies to reinvigorate its sluggish economy and real-estate market.

Persons: — Organizations: Micron, Service Locations: China, Beijing, Here's, Russia, Russia's

☆ It's refinancing time: Americans are already capitalizing on lower rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Mortgage Bankers Association's refinancing index jumped 20.3% last week to its highest in two years. That comes as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped 2 basis points to 6.13% last week. Mortgage rates have fallen recently amid Federal Reserve easing and expectations for further rate cuts. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! The surge in refinancing activity comes as mortgage rates fall as the market prices in expected easing from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: — Organizations: Mortgage, Reserve, Service, Fed, Federal Reserve, Business

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rally on China stimulus, promising labor-market data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes rallied Thursday on positive jobs data and promises of further economic stimulus in China. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by China stimulus measures and positive jobs data to pare losses from yesterday. The indexes rallied after leaders in China pledged to support the economy with more strong policy measures. The indexes' gains were also fueled by positive labor market data. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP came in unrevised at a 3% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday.

Persons: —, Eric Jackson, SocGen Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: China, unrevised

☆ Apartment rents are down and supply is up 170% in Buenos Aires since Argentina scrapped all rental regulations
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Buenos Aires is seeing apartment rents down 40% and supply up over 170%, the WSJ reported this week. The controls limited annual rent increases, causing landlords to leave units empty or hike up initial lease prices. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Since last October, rents have fallen 40% and supply has skyrocketed over 170%, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina

☆ 2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board

☆ Diddy and crypto fraudster SBF are sharing a dorm-style room in a Brooklyn jail
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Rapper Sean Combs and crypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried are sleeping in the same jail dormitory. Combs, known as Diddy, has been in the Brooklyn jail since last week on sex trafficking charges. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementCrypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried just got a new roommate. Combs has been held at Metropolitan Detention Center for almost a week after being denied bail on federal sex trafficking and racketeering charges.

Persons: Sean Combs, Sam Bankman, Combs, —, Crypto, Fried, Diddy Organizations: Service, Metropolitan Detention Center, Business Locations: Brooklyn

☆ Buying a home just got more affordable for the first time in 4 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The income homebuyers need to afford the typical home just saw its first annual decline since 2020. That decline comes as mortgage rates have steadily dipped, a Redfin report says. Homebuyers now need an annual income of $115,454 to afford the median priced home of $433,101. That follows years of declining affordability as mortgage rates soared after hitting historic lows in 2020. The 30-year mortgage rate saw its first annual decline in three years last month, falling to 6.5% from 7.07% the year prior.

Persons: —, Homebuyers Organizations: Service, Business

☆ China's latest stimulus boosts emerging-market stocks to the highest level in 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The boost comes shortly after China introduced a swath of new stimulus measures to prop up its sluggish economy and boost domestic demand. AdvertisementThe new stimulus measures also boosted China's CSI 300 of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares, with the index closing 4.3% higher on Tuesday in its best day in four years. And the Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed as much as 0.9%, led by luxury stocks amid hopes that sluggish Chinese consumer spending will rebound. Yet, some analysts remain wary that China's stimulus measures won't have drastic enough impacts to actually rescue the country from its economic woes. AdvertisementIn recent months, China's economy has struggled to escape weak consumer sentiment and continues to face a struggling property sector.

Persons: —, Yingrui Wang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Holding, Business, CSI, US Federal Reserve, AXA Investment Locations: Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Europe

☆ Investors shorting oil are walking into a 'bear trap' with energy demand set to surge, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors have turned bearish on oil amid fears of an OPEC+ price war and weak China oil demand. But if world GDP grows 3.3% next year, energy demand will likely surge, Bank of America says. That's because if GDP grows according to estimates, energy demand growth will likely follow. AdvertisementOPEC+ plans to add crude oil barrels into an existing surplus oil market after a series of cuts in the last two years. Those factors, along with the chance for a global economic slowdown, pose downside risks to the analysts' oil price target.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Federal Reserve, bbl Locations: OPEC, China

☆ China can't boost its economy because its macro policy is 'too slow and reluctant,' Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

August economic data shows China's policy moves haven't acted quickly enough, Goldman Sachs says. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementChina's economy can't seem to catch a break, and Beijing's policy interventions haven't done much to help. The strategists pointed to weak economic data from last month, with further contracting retail sales and potential labor market pressures. These data points show China's economic policies have been ill-timed, the strategists say.

Persons: haven't, Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business

☆ Why housing affordability could be a key issue for swing state voters in November, according to Redfin
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The report says median asking rents in swing states have shot up almost 24% since 2020, with especially big increases in key states like Michigan. As rent prices have climbed, housing affordability remains stretched. AdvertisementThat's a $10,365 difference, meaning renters in swing states earn 17% less than they need to afford the typical apartment. "America's swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates' plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis," Fairweather said. In July, Redfin found the median monthly housing payment in swing states has nearly doubled in the last four years, rising by 92% to reach a record high of $2,161.

Persons: —, Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Business, Midwest Locations: Michigan, Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona

☆ The Fed's lone dissenter on the big rate cut says she's concerned about 'premature declaration of victory' over inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In a historic dissent, Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, advocated instead for a smaller 25 basis point cut. AdvertisementLeading up to the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly emphasized the Fed's goals of maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate. Bowman said she believes inflation could come closer to the Fed's target with more gradual easing, which would avoid a spike in demand from lower borrowing costs. AdvertisementBowman has long advocated for tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, skewing hawkish among the Fed's members. "We should keep in mind the historical lessons and risks associated with prematurely declaring victory in the fight against inflation," Bowman said in a speech last year.

Persons: —, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Fed, Business, New York Fed

☆ Post-rate cut bubble risks mean investors should buy bonds and gold, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But that means investors once again exposed to risks of a tech bubble inflating anew. Hartnett says investors should allocate to bonds and gold to hedge bubble risk. But it means investors will have to chase the stock market surge as bubble risks bounce back, he added. AdvertisementHartnett has previously warned of the potential for a tech bubble as investment in AI has soared. Amid further AI investment and easing policy, Hartnett says the best way to position portfolios is with allocations to bonds and gold, which hedge against growth and inflation risks.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, Michael Hartnett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML, Meta, Treasury

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close at record highs and tech soars after Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes rallied to record highs as investors cheered Wednesday's rate cut from the Fed. Jobless claims reinforced the Fed's message of a strong labor market, with last weeks's claims down 12,000. AdvertisementMajor stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday, a day after a jumbo rate cut from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in four years, slashing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. The Fed's dot plot shows the central bank will likely cut another 50 basis points this year and 100 basis points next year.

Persons: —, Dan Ives, Ives, Jerome Powell, Powell, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Fed . Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Broadcom, ASML, Labor Department, Treasury, Fed, Trump Media Locations: Here's

☆ Investors should be hesitant to dive into stocks after the rate cut, with election uncertainty looming, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But after Wednesday's big 50 basis point cut, Lee says he sees uncertainty looming ahead of the election. AdvertisementProminent stock market bull Tom Lee has long called for a big rally after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. But after a big 50 basis point cut on Wednesday, Lee says he's feeling cautious ahead of the November election. That rally would happen regardless of a 25 or 50 basis point cut, he said, if the Fed suggested future cuts are likely. With election-related volatility ahead, Lee recommends investing in cyclical stocks in areas like industrials, financials, and small caps.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, SoFi's Liz Young Thomas Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Fundstrat Global Advisors, CNBC, Fed, Business

☆ Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns debt is being devalued as governments pile it up and central banks keep rates artificially low
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says he is worried by global debt levels and central bank policy. Returning to "artificial low real rates" could cause a depreciation in debt value, Dalio said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Yet, billionaire investor Ray Dalio isn't convinced that the Fed and other central banks' moves to lower rates will address the big problem: surging debt levels. Dalio said the amount of debt held by governments around the world is historically unprecedented, and could lead to a depreciation of debt as central banks push borrowing costs lower.

Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, —, Ray Dalio isn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Business

☆ Stock market today: Dow surges 462 points as stocks rally after jumbo Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes rallied Thursday as investors continue to digest Wednesday's jumbo rate cut from the Fed. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in its first rate cut in over four years. AdvertisementUS stocks soared on Thursday in a late reaction to the Federal Reserve's jumbo interest rate cut. On Wednesday, the Fed issued its first interest rate cut since 2020, cutting its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Bank of America analysts said after the meeting that they see 75 basis points of cuts in the fourth quarter and 125 basis points next year.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell's, Dow, today's 50bp, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Gen Z's Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Labor Department, SEC

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