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☆ Trump Is the GOP’s Albatross
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

There’s a lot of skepticism about former President Donald Trump’s campaign launch for the 2024 Republican nomination. His rambling, hour-long mid-November announcement was widely panned. He’s trailing Gov. However, Mr. Trump could still be the Republican nominee. He’s been underestimated before by many—including by me on numerous occasions.

☆ Ron Klain Exits the White House Stage Left
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Chief of staff Ron Klain is leaving the White House after President Joe Biden’s Feb. 7 State of the Union address. Much of the coverage frames his as a victorious exit, saying Mr. Klain departs with Mr. Biden having regained momentum after Democrats escaped a midterm shellacking. Other recent chiefs have served longer than Mr. Klain’s 25 months. Denis McDonough served four years for Barack Obama , and Andrew Card worked five years and three months for George W. Bush . Still, Mr. Klain has been a consequential chief in important respects.

☆ Biden Bets It All on Republican Failure
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

White House aides have been encouraging media coverage that credits President Biden with “a slew of legislative achievements” that give him “significant momentum” and leave him with “a stronger hand to play” in 2023. As he contemplates re-election, his approval rating has “surged” after the midterms. Not according to the RealClearPolitics average. It has Mr. Biden’s approval rising, but only from 42.1% Election Day to a little under 43% today. That’s a budge, not a surge, and 3 points lower than Donald Trump’s approval rating when he lost in 2020.

But even Democrats acknowledge the issue will give the new GOP-controlled House a fresh line of attack against the White House and may help Trump neutralize or counteract one of the most potent charges against him. And of course, the FBI investigation into classified documents on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server may have sunk her 2016 presidential campaign. Recent polls show most Americans have little interest in Congress investigating Biden and are more likely to trust him over Trump or the new Congress. “I think House Republicans have tied themselves into knots already,” Petkanas added, noting GOP lawmakers have downplayed Trump’s documents. James Comer said Trump’s documents are not 'a priority.’ So how can they with a straight face say that the Biden documents have legs but Trump’s do not?”

☆ OK Boomers, Let Go of the Presidency
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The U.S. is about to enter 2023, but in important ways it feels like 1960. The president then was Dwight D. Eisenhower , a well-liked chief executive and war hero, who led Allied Forces on D-Day. Born in October 1890 in Denison, Texas, he was the last president from the 19th century.

☆ Challenge to Kevin McCarthy Is a Biggs Joke
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

In her early years in the California Democratic Party, Nancy Pelosi saw a lot of the legendary “Big Daddy” of Golden State politics, Assembly Speaker and later State Treasurer Jesse Unruh . She even scored $20,000 from Donald Trump to help flip the House in 2006—Democrats’ first victory in that chamber after 12 years in the minority. While her House Majority super PAC raised an astonishing $160 million for 2020 and $181 million for 2022, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a former sandwich shop owner from California’s Central Valley, raised even more. He collected $166 million in 2020 and $260 million in 2022 for his Congressional Leadership Fund PAC. That financial edge was critical to hard-fought GOP victories in places such as New York, California and Oregon, without which Republicans wouldn’t have won the majority.

☆ Georgia Runoff Warnings for Both Parties
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The 2022 midterms ended Tuesday when Sen. Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker in Georgia. They gained governorships and a Senate seat and kept their House losses to single digits, despite expectations of a red wave. But there’s a danger that Mr. Warnock’s runoff victory will strengthen President Biden’s misinterpretation of Democrats’ better-than-expected showing. The president seems to believe that the GOP’s awful midterm performance was the result of improved Democratic messaging about his administration’s record. “The more they know about what we’re doing, the more support there is.”

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried gave $2.5 million to a leading political ethics watchdog. The group says it can't give the money back because officials already spent it.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Dave Levinthal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

The Campaign Legal Center fights against lawlessness and unethical behavior in politics. Brendan Quinn, a spokesperson for the Campaign Legal Center, says the nonprofit organization cannot return or give away Bankman-Fried's money because the money is already spent. Asked whether the Campaign Legal Center would consider disgorging an amount of money equivalent to what Bankman-Fried contributed, Quinn noted that the Campaign Legal Center is not a political candidate or committee. The Campaign Legal Center has not yet provided Insider a copy, first requested December 2, of the most recent IRS 990 tax document filed by Campaign Legal Center Action, its advocacy arm. Former President Donald Trump has been a frequent target of the Campaign Legal Center's legal and ethics efforts.

☆ Josh Hawley’s 2022 Election Folly
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A novel explanation for the GOP’s disappointing midterm comes from Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley . There were 113.7 million votes cast for House candidates in 2018. Republicans got 51 million and Democrats 60.7 million. Though votes are still being counted in California, so far this year Republicans received 54 million votes to 50.5 million for Democrats. Democrats had an 8.6% margin over Republicans in 2018; Republicans have a 3.3% edge in 2022.

☆ Oh, Trump Believes in Yesterday
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Donald Trump hates not being the center of attention. So on Tuesday he announced a third run for the presidency, even though Republicans rightly worry his announcement will change the Georgia Senate runoff from a referendum on President Biden to one on Mr. Trump. Fox News exit polls in Georgia showed Mr. Trump’s favorables were 44% and his unfavorables 54%, with 45% very unfavorable. Even some of the former president’s supporters hoped he would stay off the stage at least until after the runoff. But seething from the defeat of so many of his endorsed candidates, and agitated that the spotlight was on other potential 2024 GOP contenders, Mr. Trump filed to run hours after one of his favorite candidates, Kari Lake , was declared the loser in the Arizona governor’s race.

☆ With No Red Wave, Trump Is Out at Sea
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The red wave never came. What happened in Tuesday’s midterms was closer to a trickle. As of this writing, we still don’t know definitively which party controls the House. It’s likely to be the Republicans but not by much. Before Tuesday, the House had 222 Democrats (that includes two vacant Democratic seats) and 213 Republicans (including one vacant Republican seat).

☆ What to Expect in the 2022 Midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Here’s what I’ll be looking for Tuesday as I watch election returns at Fox News in New York. When polls close Tuesday at 6 p.m. EST in parts of Indiana and Kentucky (both states are split between time zones), I’ll compare what each Democrat and Republican hopeful receives to what their parties’ presidential candidate got in 2020. That’s something to watch across the board. In districts or states where Joe Biden’s margin is smaller than this year’s Democratic candidates’, that indicates it could be a bad night for their party.

☆ Biden’s Losing Midterm Message for Democrats
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Over the past week, President Biden laid out his party’s closing campaign message, providing Democratic candidates with a template to help them power through the election’s final days. It wasn’t pretty. Mr. Biden began with a Democratic National Committee event at Washington’s Howard Theatre on Oct. 18, telling the crowd, “The first bill that I will send to the Congress will be to codify Roe v. Wade.” Abortion will be his top priority in 2023. “If you care about the right to choose,” he said, “then you got to vote.”

☆ Democrats Run for the Memory Hole
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Rarely do candidates admit they’ve changed their minds about extreme views they once held. More often, they ignore what they previously said, as if they have always held reasonable opinions. What’s unusual about this election cycle is how many high-profile Democrats—even in this era of video and social-media archives—claim Republicans are lying when they remind voters of their old, now-unfashionable positions. Following George Floyd ’s death in 2020 in Minnesota’s largest city, the Minneapolis City Council moved to dismantle the police department. At a Twin Cities rally, one activist declared: “We’re safer without armed, unaccountable patrols supported by the state hunting black people.”

☆ Pelosi Tries to Smile Through the 2022 Midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The election is less than four weeks away. Now is when the politically desperate typically try to fight despondency with flights of fancy, which might explain House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s optimism on Stephen Colbert ’s “The Late Show” last week. Mrs. Pelosi claimed that because Democrats have better organization, superior messaging and more money, “we will hold the House, by winning more seats.”

☆ How Big Will the GOP House Majority Be After the Midterms?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

There’s a point in every election when candidates realize they’re locked into their strategy and there’s no time for major changes. We’re there for the midterms, now less than six weeks away. All that’s left is for candidates to execute their plans, hoping they’ll bring victory. GOP candidates are focused on the economy (especially inflation), crime and the border crisis. They’re avoiding abortion, election laws and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

☆ Karl Rove says Texas' abortion law is 'too extremist' and will be 'a real problem for Republicans in the legislature'
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( Katie Balevic | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GOP strategist Karl Rove said the Texas abortion law that bans the procedure after 6 weeks is "extremist." He said the ban will "create a real problem for Republicans" during the state's legislative session beginning in January. Some state lawmakers have said they would vote to add a rape exception, the Texas Tribune reported. "Do you think Texas is too extremist?" According to the Tribune, Rove said that he supports the Supreme Court's ruling and that abortion regulations should be a state's rights issue.

☆ A Spoonful of Sanity for Biden in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2021-07-13 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A memo from White House senior adviser Mike Donilon landed in Washington inboxes last week, claiming President Biden is enjoying a “strong jolt of momentum.”Mr. Donilon spun a tale with Mr. Biden’s “approval rating on the upswing, a resilient economic climate, and strong support for the President’s agenda.” Neither “Republican extremism” nor abortion or “concern for our democracy” decided the November election, he said. Instead, the answer lies in “what hasn’t been fully reported on” or “fully understood”—namely, “how important a role the achievements and agenda of the President and the Democrats played in the midterms.”

☆ The House GOP’s Immaturity Caucus
▼ + stars: | 1801-02-11 | by ( Karl Rove | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Kevin McCarthy ’s election as speaker on the 15th ballot early Saturday morning was a spectacle, and his concessions left him weaker than he would have been with unified support. Still, he isn’t the only speaker elected with only 216 votes—two fewer than a majority of a full 435-member House. The 1800 election ended in an Electoral College tie, sending the contest to the House. Six days and 36 ballots later, Jefferson prevailed over his running mate, Aaron Burr , who attempted to grab the White House with support from the Federalist opposition. So will Mr. McCarthy, though his path is harder.

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